Вплив ринку будівельних матеріалів на економічне зростання в умовах війни: порівняльний макро- та мікроаналіз

Abstract

The aim of the article is to identify the features of the development of both the global and the national market of construction materials in the context of uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and russian armed aggression. Research methods: statistical analysis, logical modeling, graphical analysis, comparative analysis, unity of logical and historical approaches. The dynamics of the Ukrainian cement market is determined by a combination of internal and external factors. Domestic consumption of cement is determined by the volume of domestic production minus exports, taking into account imports, and is formed by the total domestic demand for cement. The study of the factors of formation of the volumes of foreign economic operations with cement involves taking into account the structure of exports and imports in the context of the multiplicity of prices of foreign economic contracts. The carried out analysis showed that in the structure of import contracts there is a strong spread of the average contract price in the context of individual countries. Conversely, the structure of export contracts does not show such a variety of prices. The available data on the price component of foreign economic contracts, regrettably, do not allow to carry out a factor analysis and identify factors influencing a significant price spread in the structure of import contracts for the purchase of cement. The originality of the article lies in the combination of macro- and micro-levels of analysis of the construction materials market (on the example of the cement market) and the identification of the relationship between the dynamics of the cement market and the general macroeconomic dynamics in relation to the conditions of wartime and post-war renascence of the Ukrainian economy. The shortcomings of statistical sources for studying the market of construction materials, which affect the possibilities of its proper analysis, are also identified.