Abstract

The article addresses the dynamics of the representation of the Russian population in the Baltic republics during the rise of Russophobic sentiments in these countries from 2018 to 2023. The aim of the article is to identify current trends in the dynamics of the Russian ethnic population in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, considering the spatial characteristics of their settlement, and to compare this with the situation before the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The research is based on official data from national statistical departments, including the results of population censuses (both national and all-Union since 1959). The methodological foundation of the study includes general scientific methods (generalization, analysis, comparison), as well as statistical and cartographic methods. The study finds that the rate of decline in the number and share of Russians significantly increased after 2021, particularly in Estonia — by a factor of 10 in 2021 compared to 2020. Negative trends are observed across all regions. The highest representation of Russians in the ethnic structure of the Baltic republics remains in the capitals, border municipalities adjacent to Russia, and historically Russian-settled territories, where the decline in the Russian share is most pronounced.

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