Оценка и моделирование пространственных взаимовлияний в развитии кадрового потенциала научно-исследовательской деятельности регионов России

Abstract

The current spatial heterogeneity of the localisation of research personnel and mutual spatial influences between the main centres of its concentration and neighbouring regions in Central Russia, according to the hypothesis, lead to its further growth in these centres. The present paper assessed the localisation of research personnel using spatial autocorrelation analysis. The spatial interactions between regions were analysed by the method of Anselin, considering various systems for measuring distances. The Granger test was applied to confirm the presence of the established interactions. Additionally, the study built regression models of interregional spatial interactions, assessed the concentration of factors for the development of research personnel in Russian regions and examined relevant efficiency indicators. As a result, the following mutual spatial influences in Russia were determined: between Moscow city and Saint Petersburg, Tver, Bryansk and Vladimir oblasts; between Moscow and Ivanovo, Vladimir, Oryol oblasts and the Chuvash Republic; between Nizhny Novgorod and Tula oblasts; between Saint Petersburg and Tambov, Bryansk, Vladimir, Smolensk and Yaroslavl oblasts. Spatial interactions between the regions of the Ural, Volga and Siberian districts were not identified. This result, along with the increasing dynamics of the concentration of research and development human resources in the central regions, contributes to the deepening of spatial heterogeneity of research personnel in Russia. About 65% of all research personnel in Russia are located in 22 regions, and only 4 regions (cities of Moscow and Saint Petersburg, Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod oblasts) have spatial interactions with the neighbouring regions. 60.5% of research and development human resources are concentrated there. The findings can be used to develop mechanisms for reducing the spatial heterogeneity of the development of research personnel in Russia.