Социально-экономические эффекты от деятельности агрохолдингов на сельских территориях Новосибирской области: индикаторы и прогнозирование выраженности

Abstract

The ongoing socio-economic transformations have a significant impact on global food security and expose the problem of access to quality food for different population groups. In order to intensify food production, public institutions support large infrastructure projects in the agricultural sector and expand large vertically-integrated entities into rural areas, including regions with low agricultural development. A thorough analysis of negative experience in agricultural holdings could prevent the implicit degradation of the rural territories which they strive to support. The author developed a systematic multistage methodological approach to assessing the socio-economic effects of agricultural holdings. The method was tested in the Maslyanino municipal district of the Novosibirsk Region. The article introduces a matrix of potential socio-economic effects from the activities of agricultural holdings and a list of indicators to assess their expression. The study used such methods as description, classification, economic-mathematical modeling, trend analysis, analysis of financial coefficients, factor analysis, adaptive short-term forecasting, and formalization. The new methodological approach can be used to design scenarios of rural development by agricultural holdings, as well as to promote their positive socio-economic effects.