ОТДЕЛЬНЫЕ АСПЕКТЫ СТРАТЕГИЧЕСКОГО ПЛАНИРОВАНИЯ ГЕРМАНИИ В ИНДО-ТИХООКЕАНСКОМ РЕГИОНЕ В УСЛОВИЯХ ВОЗВРАЩЕНИЯ СОПЕРНИЧЕСТВА ВЕЛИКИХ ДЕРЖАВ

Abstract

At least in the medium term, the matrix of international relations will be determined not only by the emerging global «geopolitical rift», such as tensions between the United States and China, but also by the return of competition between the great powers. At the same time, the Indo-Pacific Region (IPR) inevitably becomes the main arena for the global confrontation between the United States and China for the opportunity to influence the reformatting of the world order. For the ITR, the growing tension in the South China Sea, the issue of non-proliferation of nuclear and other types of WMD are becoming increasingly important, while the competition of interests of the most important players (USA - China, China - India) in this region generates new security risks and challenges. As a major export trading power, Germany is not going to be limited to the role of an additional player in the region, the economic and geopolitical importance of which is steadily growing, especially given that conflicts in the ITR can threaten the most important trade and transport arteries linking Europe with Asia and Africa. Berlin’s goal is to expand Germany’s presence in the Indo-Pacific, relying on intra-regional cooperation, because the consolidation of the «bipolar structures» of the United States and China in the region is one of the main risks for other major players, as the confrontation between Washington and Beijing could take the form of a proxy war, destroying global supply chains. The strategic planning of the FRG in the ITR, in contrast to the similar strategy of the United States, does not have a pronounced anti-Chinese orientation, although it is aimed, in fact, at «containment» of China. Moreover, a more balanced policy of Germany and its European allies (primarily France) in the region, based on the search for a balance of interests, could contribute to a softer structuring of zones of influence in the ITR with an emphasis on a multilateral approach.