К оценке экологических рисков от загрязнения атмосферы Арк­тической зоны в условиях изменяющегося климата в ХХI в

Abstract

The article formulates a methodological approach to assessing environmental risks from atmospheric pollution in the Arctic zone under a changing climate. It is based on the US EPA’s health risk assessment methodology and impurity concentration estimates by solving the adjoint equation for impurities transport and diffusion. The authors investigate the dynamics of health risk from atmospheric pollution PM10, PM2.5 in the areas of five arctic cities due to emissions from potential nearby and remote sources (including sources of transboundary pollution) in 1980—2050 taking into account various scenarios of climate change. The results indicate general tendency towards an increase in the danger of air pollution for humans in the forecast period until 2050 against the background of climate changes. The authors study the spatio-temporal dynamics in the location areas of PM10, PM2.5 sources that create the highest health risk in relation to Arkhangelsk. The results show the moderate narrowing of the high-risk zone in the first quarter of the XXI century and some upward trend in risk in the second quarter of this century. In the period up to 2050, the main impact on public health in the Arkhangelsk region is expected from emission sources located in the west and southwest. At the same time, the authors prove a tendency towards an increase in the influence of sources located in the southwestern and southern directions. In case of transboundary pollution, sources in the Scandinavian states, Baltics, the countries of Eastern and Central Europe, Ukraine and Belarus pose a danger. The results are important to develop proposals for ensuring the environmental safety in Arctic when planning the spatial development of the Russian Arctic zone and other country territories.