Methodological approach to assessing environmental risk (health risk) from air pollution in the Baikal region in a changing climate

Abstract

The methodological approach to assessing the environmental risk (health risk) from atmospheric pollution in the Baikal region taking into account the changing climate was formulated. It is based on the US EPA's health risk assessment methodology and impurity concentration estimates by solving the adjoint equation for impurities transport and diffusion. The dynamics of health risk for the population of Irkutsk from atmospheric pollution PM10, PM2.5 due to emissions from possible sources located both in the Baikal region and beyond including sources of transboundary pollution in 1980-2050 under various scenarios of climate change was researched. A tendency for a moderate decrease in the considered risk over the past several decades was shown. In the forecast period until 2050, under both climate scenarios, significant changes in the risk were not noted. The spatio-temporal dynamics of the areas of PM10, PM2.5 sources location that create the increased health risk in relation to Irkutsk was studied. The results indicate the moderate narrowing of the increased risk zone for Irkutsk in the first half of the 21st century. In the period until 2050, the main impact on the population health in the Irkutsk area from emission sources located in the southwest, south and southeast is expected. In case of transboundary pollution, the main danger from sources in Kazakhstan, Mongolia, and China is expected. The results are important to develop proposals for ensuring safety for public health, developing health care and planning environmental protection measures in the Baikal and neighboring regions.