Об оценке и управлении гидрологическими рисками в период весеннего половодья в бассейне р. Арпа (Республика Армения)

Abstract

Introduction. Issues of formation of maximum expenses and their forecast, risk extreme flow rates on the rivers of Armenia represents a significant interest for consumers of water resources. The works of scientists of the Republic of Armenia are devoted to the solution of this problem: (Vardanyan T. G., Muradyan Z. Z., 2014), forecasting the maximum water flow for the Jermuk hydrological station on the Arpa River (Misakyan A. E., Azizyan L. V., Azizyan A. O., 2014), assessment of long-term fluctuations of the maximum runoff of rivers in the mountainous territories of Armenia in the context of global changes climate (Margaryan V. G., Ovcharuk V. A., Goptsy M. V. Borovskaya G. A., 2020). This paper analyzes the risks of extreme spring runoff river flood Arpa (Republic of Armenia) related to degree assessment the danger of flood waves. Problem solving can help prevent economic damage and loss of life, and raise issue of extreme runoff risk management. Unlike listed works, this study uses longer series of actual observations and a certain section of the river. Purpose of research. Assessment and management of hydrological risks during the period spring flood in the river basin Arpa. Methods. The work used the methods: of mathematical-statistical, extrapolation, analysis, analogy, correlation. Results. Correlations between the values of the modulus of extreme costs 1 and 10 % security and weighted average height drainage basin, as well as the relatively close relationship between the average values of extreme costs for the periods 2001–2020 and 1981–2000 biennium, integral curve of extreme flow rates of floods in the section Yeghegnadzor of the Arpa River. These dependencies can be used to preliminary estimates of the maximum runoff of the spring flood unexplored rivers of the considered territory. To manage and planning of extreme water resources, multifactorial dependencies that can be applied when making forecasts. The rate of extreme flow rates of the spring flood has been calculated, coefficients of variability (Cv) and skewness (Cs), absolute maximum costs of various security. Conclusion. Average values of extreme water flow rates of the river. Arpa for the period 2001–2020 mostly inferior or slightly higher than average values for the period 1981–2000. In the Arpa river basin from 1981 to 2020 year mainly there is a tendency of decreasing extreme river flow, that is, the degree of risk of extreme expenses.