The changes in the annual distribution of mountain runoff during the period of 1965–2018 in Hexi Corridor, Northwest China

Abstract

The annual distribution characteristics of river runoff in arid regions have significant implications for water resource stability and management. Based on the mountain runoff data from 1965 to 2018, this study examines the annual change characteristics of monthly runoff of the Shiyang River Basin, Heihe River Basin, and Shule River Basin in the Hexi Corridor, Northwest China. Many indexes are used and analyzed, including the coefficient of variance, the complete regulation coefficient, the concentration degree and concentration period, the magnitude of change, the skewness coefficient, and the kurtosis coefficient of the annual distribution curves. The results reveal the following: (1) The inhomogeneity of annual runoff distribution in the Taolai River and the rivers to the west of it, except the Shiyou River, show an increasing trend. Conversely, the inhomogeneity of the rivers to the east of the Taolai River generally show a downward trend, but the coefficient of variance value is still very high. (2) In the Shiyang River Basin, the annual distribution of the concentration period is characterized by a relatively discrete pattern. Conversely, the Heihe River Basin exhibits a relatively concentrated pattern, and the distribution pattern of the Shule River Basin is quite different. Notably, all concentration periods in the three basins have shifted backward after the 2000s. (3) The Shiyang River Basin exhibits disordered annual distribution curves of runoff in different years. In contrast, the Heihe River Basin presents a typical ‘single-peak’ pattern with a prominent right-skewed. The Shule River Basin has regular distribution curves, with a gradually significant ‘double-peak’ pattern from east to west. Overall, there has been a slight change in runoff in the Shiyang River Basin, while the Heihe River Basin and Shule River Basin have experienced significant increases in runoff. The annual distribution curves of runoff in the Liyuan River and the rivers to the east of it exhibit a gentle peak pattern, and the appearance probability of extreme runoff during the year is low. Conversely, the rivers to the west of the Liyuan River, excluding the Danghe River, display a sharp peak and thick tail pattern, indicating that the appearance probability of extreme runoff during the year is high. These findings have practical implications for the planning and management of water resources in the Hexi Corridor. Moreover, they provide a solid foundation for predicting future changes in regional water resources.