Аналитическая модель укрепления политической стабильности в Республике Беларусь в условиях современных тенденций и вызовов (делимся опытом)

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to present methodological tools for strengthening political stability in the Republic of Belarus, which is developed on the basis of the author's integrative model of analysis of the political system and a new approach to identifying the risks of the development of the political system, to determine the possibilities of its application outside the Belarusian context. The basis of the scientific methodology is the integration approach, which is a combination of key provisions of institutional, systemic, neo-institutional approaches to the study of the political system, as well as the concept of the political field by P. Bourdieu and the theories of the autopoietic system by N. Luhmann and structuration by E. Giddens. This research position allows us to verify the heuristic potential of the integrative model of the analysis of the political system to identify the risks of its development at the level of five subsystems: institutional-organizational, institutional-normative, ideological, functional-communicative and subject-actor. Empirical conclusions are formulated on the basis of data from sociological surveys, thought experiment. It is concluded that the degree of threat of one or another identified risk will largely depend on the possibility of localization of the area (point) of risk identification, as well as the efficiency of the deployment of analytical procedures. The theoretical significance of the article lies in the presentation of an approach to risk management, which can be designated as "bearing". It allows you to analyze the risk in dynamics, starting from any point of its detection or fixation. The practical significance is determined by the possibility of adapting the proposed methodology for identifying and assessing the risks of the development of the political system to the national specifics of different states.