ВЫЯВЛЕНИЕ УГРОЗ НА ОСНОВЕ ОГРАНИЧЕННОГО НАБОРА ДАННЫХ ПРИ ОЦЕНКЕ СИСТЕМ ОБЕСПЕЧЕНИЯ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ И МЕРОПРИЯТИЙ ПО ИХ РЕАЛИЗАЦИИ

Abstract

Introduction. In order to ensure the operational and effective security of complex technical systems and measures for their implementation, it is necessary to apply methods of forecasting threats and maintaining the optimal strategy to prevent their consequences. Security threats regarding the life cycle of systems created in the digital economy are usually determined by the level and probability of external conditions, influencing factors on stability and operability of the support system for their life cycle, in the respect the economic system is considered. The aim of the study. In systems theory and system analysis, these factors are commonly referred to as environmental state variables. They are random in nature and, when described mathematically, can be continuous, discrete, or categorical. Methods. Continuous variables are presented in the form of graphs or register records. For statistical and mathematical processing, they are transformed into a table format or a discrete form. Results. Discrete values of environmental variables are recorded in the form of tables or numerical sequences. Categorical variables have the meaning of logical or Boolean values and are recorded in the form of tables. Practical significance. The prediction of categorical variables, based on the mathematical definition of the security, must be carried out by assessing the probability of their occurrence and impact on the life cycle support system of systems and activities as complex technical systems. The main problem is the insufficient statistical data to obtain estimations with a sufficient level of confidence and the tight deadlines for decision-making. Discussion. The paper presents a Bayesian approach and a method for assessing the probabilities of threats on a limited set of data. Given the universal nature of the presented methodological approach to assessing the level of threats on a limited set of data in relation to assessing the safety of the on-board systems life cycle support system, it is possible to obtain its current assessments and, on their basis, timely develop the necessary measures to adjust organizational, resource, technical and technological processes in the life cycle of systems.