Methodology for Assessing the Level of Threats Based on a Limited Set of Data While Ensuring the Safety of On-Board Systems

Abstract

In order to ensure the operational and effective safety of on-board systems created for their offline use, it is necessary to apply methods of forecasting threats and choosing the optimal strategy for preventing their consequences. Threats to economic security regarding the life cycle of on-board systems created in the digital economy are usually determined by the level and probability of external, influencing factors that determine the stability and operation of the support system for their life cycle, as which the economic system is considered. From the point of view of systems theory and system analysis, these factors are commonly referred to as environmental state variables. They are random in nature and, when mathematically described, can be continuous, discrete, or categorical. Continuous variables, when they are registered, are represented in the form of graphs or register diagrams. But for statistical and mathematical processing, they are translated into a table format or a discrete form, which, in fact, reduces them to a specific form. Discrete values of environmental variables are recorded in the form of tables or numerical sequences. Categorical variables have the meaning of logical or Boolean values and are registered in the form of tables. The prediction of categorical variables, based on the mathematical definition of safety, must be made by assessing the probability of their manifestation and impact on the life cycle support system of on-board systems as complex technical systems. The main problem in this case is the insufficient volume of statistical data to obtain estimates with a sufficient level of confidence and a tight decision-making time. The presented paper presents a Bayesian approach and a method for assessing the likelihood of threats on a limited set of data flow. Given the universal nature of the presented methodological approach to assessing the level of threats on a limited set of data in relation to assessing the safety of the on-board systems life cycle support system, it is possible to obtain its current assessments and, based on them, timely develop the necessary measures to adjust organizational, organizational, resource, technical and technological processes in the system life cycle.