Zonal Wind Oscillation Research Articles

Bayesian History Matching Applied to the Calibration of a Gravity Wave Parameterization

AbstractBreaking atmospheric gravity waves (GWs) in the tropical stratosphere are essential in driving the roughly 2‐year oscillation of zonal winds in this region known as the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO). As Global Climate Models (GCM)s are not typically able to directly resolve the spectrum of waves required to drive the QBO, parameterizations are necessary. Such parameterizations often require knowledge of poorly constrained physical parameters. In the case of the spectral gravity parameterization used in this work, these parameters are the total equatorial GW stress and the half width of phase speed distribution. Radiosonde observations are used to obtain the period and amplitude of the QBO, which are compared against values obtained from a GCM. We utilize two established calibration techniques to obtain estimates of the range of plausible parameter values: History matching & Ensemble Kalman Inversion (EKI). History matching is found to reduce the size of the initial range of plausible parameters by a factor of 98%, requiring only 60 model integrations. EKI cannot natively provide any uncertainty quantification but is able to produce a single best estimate of the calibrated values in 25 integrations. When directly comparing the approaches using the Calibrate, Emulate, Sample method to produce a posterior estimate from EKI, history matching produces more compact posteriors with fewer model integrations at lower ensemble sizes compared to EKI; however, these differences become less apparent at higher ensemble sizes.

Tropical Wave Observations From the Reel‐Down Atmospheric Temperature Sensor (RATS) in the Lowermost Stratosphere During Strateole‐2

AbstractTropical waves play an important role in driving the quasi‐biennial oscillation of zonal winds in the tropical stratosphere. In our study we analyze these waves based on temperature observations from the 2021–2022 Strateole‐2 campaign when the Reel‐down Atmospheric Temperature Sensor (RATS) was successfully deployed for the first time. RATS provides long‐duration, continuous and simultaneous high‐resolution temperature observations at two altitudes (balloon float level and 200 m below) allowing for an analysis of vertical wavelengths. This separation distance was chosen to focus on waves near the resolution limit of reanalyses. Here, we found tropical waves with periods between about 6 hr and 2 days, with vertical wavelengths between 1.5 and 5 km, respectively. Comparing our results to Fifth generation European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) reanalyses we found good agreement for waves with a period longer than 1 day. However, the ERA5 amplitudes of higher‐frequency waves are under‐estimated, and the temporal evolution of most wave packets differs from the observations.

Stratospheric Ozone Variations Over Obninsk from Data of Lidar and Satellite Measurements

Analysis of variations of stratospheric ozone content at 13–18, 18–23 and 23–30 km layers is presented from data of lidar and satellite measurements in 2014–2022 over Obninsk city (55.1° N, 36.6° E). Modeling of deviations from seasonal run for separate quarters of year are fulfilled by using of linear regression method. Impact factors under consideration are quasi-biennial oscillation of zonal wind in tropical stratosphere (QBO), Arctic oscillation (AO), El-Nino – Southern oscillation (ENSO), solar activity (SA), volcanic aerosol (VA) and polar stratospheric clouds (PSC). Enhancement of ozone content is observed in eastern QBO phase at 18–30 km layer (I–II quarter) and in western QBO phase at 13–23 km layer (IV quarter). At separate layers it is revealed significant impacts of AO (II–III quarters), SA (I–II quarters) and VA (III–IV). During a year influence of PSC is originally showed in II quarter at 13–18 layer and then in IV quarter at 13–18 layer. Possible physical mechanisms are discussed which are the basis of the correlation relations observed.

Seasonally Alternate Roles of the North Pacific Oscillation and the South Pacific Oscillation in Tropical Pacific Zonal Wind and ENSO

Abstract The western-central equatorial Pacific (WCEP) zonal wind affects El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by involving a series of multiscale air–sea interactions. Its interannual variation contributes the most to ENSO amplitude. Thus, understanding the predictability of the WCEP interannual wind is of great importance for better predictions of ENSO. Here, we show that the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and the South Pacific Oscillation (SPO) alternate in fueling this interannual wind from late boreal winter to austral winter in the presence of background trade winds in different hemispheres. During the boreal winter–spring, the NPO registers footprints in the tropics by benefiting from the Pacific meridional mode and modulating the northwestern Pacific intertropical convergence zone (NITCZ). However, as austral winter approaches, the SPO takes over the role of the NPO in maintaining the anomalous NITCZ. Moreover, the interannual wind is further driven to the east in the positive phase of the SPO, by intensified central-eastern equatorial Pacific convection resulting from tropical–extratropical heat flux adjustments. A reconstructed WCEP interannual wind index involving only the NPO and the SPO possesses a long lead time for ENSO prediction of nearly one year. These two extratropical boosters enhance the viability of equatorial Pacific zonal wind anomalies associated with the large growth rate of ENSO, and the one in the winter hemisphere seems to be more efficient in forcing the tropics. Our result further indicates that the NPO benefits a long-lead prediction of the WCEP interannual wind and ENSO, while the SPO is the dominant extratropical predictor of ENSO amplitude. Significance Statement ENSO is closely linked to the interannual variability of equatorial Pacific zonal wind, and ENSO prediction is impeded by the weak predictability of the wind. We have found that the North Pacific Oscillation and the South Pacific Oscillation take turns in affecting the interannual variability of the zonal wind from the late boreal winter to austral winter, and the winter hemisphere extratropical booster is more efficient in modulating tropical convection and the associated surface winds. An estimated zonal wind index constructed by the two extratropical precursors possesses a long lead time for ENSO prediction. Our result provides useful information for better predicting ENSO by further considering winter hemisphere extratropical climate variability.

The Relationship between Madden–Julian Oscillation Moist Convective Circulations and Tropical Cyclone Genesis

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a planetary-scale weather system that creates a 30–60 day oscillation in zonal winds and precipitation in the tropics. Its envelope of enhanced rainfall forms over the Indian Ocean and moves slowly eastward before dissipating near the Date Line. The MJO modulates tropical cyclone (TC) genesis, intensity, and landfall in the Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic Oceans. This study examines the mechanisms by which the MJO alters TC genesis. In particular, MJO circulations are partitioned into Kelvin and Rossby waves for each of the developing, mature, and dissipating stages of the convective envelope, and locations of TC genesis are related to these circulations. Throughout the MJO’s convective life cycle, TC genesis is inhibited to the east of the convective envelope, and enhanced just west of the convective envelope. The inhibition of TC genesis to the east of the MJO is largely due to vertical motion associated with the Kelvin wave circulation, as is the enhancement of TC genesis just west of the MJO during the developing stage. During the mature and dissipating stages, the MJO’s Rossby gyres intensify, creating regions of low-level vorticity, favoring TC genesis to its west. Over the 36-year period considered here, the MJO modulation of TC genesis increases due to the intensification of the MJO’s Kelvin wave circulation.

ВОСПРОИЗВЕДЕНИЕ ПРОЦЕССОВ В СТРАТОСФЕРЕ МОДЕЛЬЮ ОБЩЕЙ ЦИРКУЛЯЦИИ АТМОСФЕРЫ ПЛАВ072L96

Dynamics of the stratosphere and ozone layer are among important sources of atmospheric circulation predictability at subseasonal-to-seasonal time scales. The simulation of the stratospheric dynamics with the SL-AV atmospheric general circulation model for the SLAV072L96 seasonal weather prediction configuration is analyzed. The configuration is currently under preoperational testing at the Hydrometcenter of Russia. The model simulates both winter and summer averaged distributions of zonal wind and temperature close to the reanalysis data. The quasi-biennial oscillation of equatorial zonal wind is simulated with a realistic period and amplitude. There is a significant reduction of errors as compared with the previous stratosphere-resolving SL-AV model configuration. It is shown that the stratospheric process simulation enhancement is largely due to the reduction of systematic errors in the simulation of troposphere dynamics. The work on the inclusion of the CHARM photochemical model in the SL-AV model is described. The results of first experiments with the coupled model are given.

On the Structure and Variability of the Migrating Diurnal Temperature Tide Observed by SABER

Abstract Temperature observations made by the SABER infrared radiometer from January 2002 through December 2021 are used to study the structure and variability of the migrating diurnal temperature tide in the middle atmosphere (∼17–105 km). In the lower stratosphere, and in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT), tidal structure is dominated by the gravest latitudinally symmetric mode, with a smaller contribution from the first antisymmetric mode; in the middle and upper stratosphere, vertically nonpropagating modes are prominent. Consistent with previous work, low-frequency variability is mainly semiannual, with maxima at the equinoxes. Quasi-biennial variability is also present and evident in low-passed time series. There are robust relationships between the semiannual and quasi-biennial variability of the tide and the semiannual and quasi-biennial tropical zonal wind oscillations, respectively, which persist throughout the 20-yr dataset. While the physical mechanisms responsible for these relationships cannot be ascertained from the observations, the present results should be useful for hypothesis testing with numerical models. It is also found that the diurnal tide breaks due to convective instability in the MLT. This is reflected in its mean vertical structure, which grows as expected for a nondissipating wave below ∼85 km, but ceases to grow at higher altitudes. Direct confirmation that dissipation is due to breaking is obtained from the potential temperature field, which shows frequent instances of reversed vertical gradient, particularly at the equinoxes. Breaking of the diurnal tide has a major impact on the zonal-mean temperature and zonal wind structure of the MLT at the equinoxes.

Numerical simulation of stratospheric QBO impact on the planetary waves up to the thermosphere

With the help of numerical simulation, a detailed analysis of the dynamical effect of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the equatorial zonal wind on the planetary waves (PWs) up to thermospheric heights is carried out for the first time. The 3-dimensional nonlinear mechanistic model of middle and upper atmosphere (MUAM) is used, which is capable of simulating the general atmospheric circulation from the surface up to 300–400 km altitude. The amplitudes of stationary and westward travelling PWs with periods from 4 to 10 days are calculated based on ensembles of model simulations for conditions corresponding to the easterly and westerly QBO phases. Fluxes of wave activity and refractive indices of the atmosphere are calculated to analyze the detailed behavior of the PWs. The important result to emerge is that the stratospheric QBO causes statistically significant changes in the amplitudes of individual wave components up to 25% in the mesosphere-lower thermosphere and 10% changes above 200 km. This change in wave structures should be especially noticeable in the atmosphere during periods of low solar activity, when the direct contribution of solar activity fluctuations is minimized. Propagating from the troposphere to the upper atmosphere, PWs contribute to the propagation of the QBO signal not only from the equatorial region to extratropical latitudes, but also from the stratosphere to the thermosphere. The need for a detailed analysis of large-scale wave disturbances in the upper atmosphere and their relationship with the underlying layers is due, in particular, to their significant impact on satellite navigation and communication systems, which is caused by amplitude and phase fluctuations of the radio signal.

Phase Unlocking and the Modulation of Tropopause-Level Trace Gas Advection by the Quasibiennial Oscillation.

Open questions about the modulation of near-surface trace gas variability by stratosphere-troposphere tracer transport complicate efforts to identify anthropogenic sources of gases such as CFC-11 and N2O and disentangle them from dynamical influences. In this study, we explore one model's modulation of lower stratospheric tracer advection by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of stratospheric equatorial zonal-mean zonal winds at 50hPa. We assess instances of coherent modulation versus disruption through phase unlocking with the seasonal cycle in the model and in observations. We quantify modeled advective contributions to the temporal rate of change of stratospheric CFC-11 and N2O at extratropical and high-latitudes by calculating a transformed Eulerian mean (TEM) budget across isentropic surfaces from a 10-member WACCM4 ensemble simulation. We find that positive interannual variability in seasonal tracer advection generally occurs in the easterly QBO phase, as in previous work, and briefly discuss physical mechanisms. Individual simulations of the 10-member ensemble display phase-unlocking disruptions from this general pattern due to seasonally varying synchronizations between the model's repeating 28-month QBO cycle and the 12-month seasonal cycle. We find that phase locking and unlocking patterns of tracer advection calculations inferred from observations fall within the envelope of the ensemble member results. Our study bolsters evidence for variability in the interannual stratospheric dynamical influence of CFC-11 near-surface concentrations by assessing the QBO modulation of lower stratospheric advection via synchronization with the annual cycle. It identifies a likely cause of variations in the QBO influence on tropospheric abundances.

Pronounced Suppression and X-Pattern Merging of Equatorial Ionization Anomalies After the 2022 Tonga Volcano Eruption.

Following the 2022 Tonga Volcano eruption, dramatic suppression and deformation of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) crests occurred in the American sector ∼14,000 km away from the epicenter. The EIA crests variations and associated ionosphere‐thermosphere disturbances were investigated using Global Navigation Satellite System total electron content data, Global‐scale Observations of the Limb and Disk ultraviolet images, Ionospheric Connection Explorer wind data, and ionosonde observations. The main results are as follows: (a) Following the eastward passage of expected eruption‐induced atmospheric disturbances, daytime EIA crests, especially the southern one, showed severe suppression of more than 10 TEC Unit and collapsed equatorward over 10° latitudes, forming a single band of enhanced density near the geomagnetic equator around 14–17 UT, (b) Evening EIA crests experienced a drastic deformation around 22 UT, forming a unique X‐pattern in a limited longitudinal area between 20 and 40°W. (c) Thermospheric horizontal winds, especially the zonal winds, showed long‐lasting quasi‐periodic fluctuations between ±200 m/s for 7–8 hr after the passage of volcano‐induced Lamb waves. The EIA suppression and X‐pattern merging was consistent with a westward equatorial zonal dynamo electric field induced by the strong zonal wind oscillation with a westward reversal.

On the Relationship Between the Stratospheric Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation and Summer Precipitation in Northern China

AbstractThis paper reports that there has been a significant relationship between the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) in zonal wind at 50 hPa in summer and precipitation in August in northern China since the late 1970s. The correlation coefficient between them reaches up to −0.61 during 1979–2018. Associated with the easterly (westerly) phase of the QBO, there is a meridional dipole pattern of zonal wind from the stratosphere to troposphere over the Northwest Pacific in August with the easterly (westerly) anomalies in 25–50°N and westerly (easterly) anomalies in 50–65°N. This meridional zonal‐wind dipole favors the strengthening (weakening) of the tropospheric Japan Sea high in the QBO easterly (westerly) phase, causing an increase (decrease) of the water vapor transportation from the Northwest Pacific to northern China and thus more (less) precipitation in these regions. The finding of this study has import implications for predicting the summer precipitation in northern China in the future.

The impact of the QBO on the region of the tropical tropopause in QBOi models: Present‐day simulations

AbstractThe processes occurring in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) are of great importance for stratosphere–troposphere exchanges and the variability of the Earth's climate. Previous studies demonstrated the increasing ability of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) in simulating the TTL, depending on factors such as the horizontal and vertical resolution, with the major role for physical parametrizations. In this work we assess the mean state and variability of the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere simulated by 13 AGCMs of the Stratosphere–troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi) for the historical period. As these models internally generate quasi‐biennial oscillations (QBOs) of the stratospheric zonal wind, we can analyse the simulated QBO influence on the TTL on interannual time‐scales. We find that model biases in temperature near the tropopause are strongly related to water vapour concentrations in the lower stratosphere. A source of intermodel spread derives from stratospheric aerosols, as the responses to eruptions differ between those models prescribing volcanic aerosol forcing. The QBO influence on the thermal structure is generally realistic in the equatorial region, but the subtropical response is weak compared with the reanalysis. This is associated with a limited downward penetration of QBO winds, generally smaller QBO meridional widths, and weaker temperature anomalies, which disappear above the tropopause for most models. We discuss the QBO impacts on tropopause pressure and precipitation, characterized by large uncertainties due to the small signal in the observational records and sampling uncertainty. Realistic QBO connection with the troposphere in some models suggests that the underlying physical processes can be correctly simulated. Overall, we find that the QBOi models have limited ability to reproduce the observed modulation of the TTL processes, which is consistent with biases in the vertical and latitudinal extent of the simulated QBOs degrading this connection.

Discovery of Quasi‐Stationary Equatorial Waves Trapped in Stratospheric QBO Westerly and Easterly Jets

AbstractQuasi‐stationary planetary Rossby waves forced in the extratropical troposphere propagate upwards into the stratospheric vortex and can also be refracted toward the equator. To the extent that such waves penetrate the low latitudes they will be observable as quasi‐stationary zonal eddies in the equatorial middle stratosphere. These eddies should be strongly modulated by the phase of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) of the mean zonal wind. In this project we used global reanalysis data to examine the quasi‐stationary waves in the monthly mean wind and geopotential fields near the equator and their relation to the QBO mean winds and the extratropical planetary waves. We discovered quasi‐stationary mid‐stratospheric eddy circulations near the equator that often take the form of equatorial planetary modes. Notably a quasi‐stationary equatorial Rossby mode structure can develop during westerly QBO phases, especially when the westerly mean jet is almost symmetric about the equator and deep in the vertical (often in November). More surprisingly, during the easterly QBO phase (EQBO), a modest amplitude quasi‐stationary equatorial Kelvin mode structure develops. Stationary equatorial waves forced in the troposphere will encounter critical surfaces at one or more levels below the mid‐stratosphere, and so presumably cannot account for our findings. A linear, steady model in an equatorial channel that was forced by observed fields specified at extratropical lateral boundaries also cannot fully reproduce the equatorial mode structures, especially for the Kelvin wave during EQBO. Other factors such as transient wave‐mean flow interaction or some dynamic instability might be responsible.

Influence of QBO-MJO connection on the turbulence variation in the TTL observed with equatorial atmosphere radar

Atmospheric turbulence triggers vertical transport of heat and material exchange within troposphere and the stratosphere known as Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange (STE). This phenomenon occurs in Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL), a transition layer within 14-18.5 km. The state of TTL is the key to understand how phenomena in the troposphere and stratosphere interact. The interaction between Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), a zonal wind oscillation in stratosphere, and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) defined as an eastward moving disturbance of convective system in the previous study is closely linked in boreal winter. This study presents the variation of turbulence intensity toward QBO-MJO interaction in TTL calculated from spectral width observed with Equatorial Atmosphere Radar (EAR) located in Agam, West Sumatra (0.2°S, 100.32°E). Analysis is focused on the extended boreal winter period. Turbulence intensity (σturb) in TTL tends to have an inversely proportional value toward zonal wind in 50 hPa. Generally, enhancement of turbulence intensity is observed on active phase MJO. Zonal wind and vertical wind are stronger in active phase MJO occurred in QBOE than QBOW that can lead to increase turbulence intensity in TTL. These parameters intensification is associated with stronger convective and precipitation system during QBOE-MJO that is caused by more unstable atmosphere.

Thermodynamic structure of monsoon boundary layer over the west coast of India

The study investigates thermodynamic structure of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) over the west coast of India during the southwest monsoon season. Radiosonde profiles at 00 UTC (0530 IST) are utilised for three stations, namely Thiruvananthapuram (TVM), Mangalore (MNG) and Mumbai (MUM) to represent south, central and north parts of the west coast, respectively. The high vertical resolution radiosonde data were collected from India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the period 1st May to 31st October 2018. Variations in the thermodynamic parameters associated with the monsoon and active and weak surges are examined. The active and weak monsoon conditions are identified using the values of OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) and rainfall in the respective stations. The study delineates interesting dynamic and thermodynamic features over the region. The thermodynamic parameters possess remarkable variations associated with the approach of the monsoon surges. TVM is characterised by absolutely stable or conditionally neutral (conditionally unstable) layer above a shallow conditionally unstable layer over the ground during the active (weak) monsoon situations; however, over MNG and MUM, ABL is conditionally unstable during both active and weak situations. Stable atmosphere is expected to cause stratiform clouds under favourable dynamic factors, whereas unstable atmosphere can aid vertical development of clouds and this can be attributed to the vertical shear of zonal wind. Zonal wind has a sharp increase from the ground to above ABL (~ 1200 m) in TVM; however, it is in the lower levels of ABL over MNG and MUM. In MUM, strong zonal wind is observed during the active (>20 m s−1) and weak (>12 m s−1) situations that causes intense mixing and maximum ABL height. The enhanced monsoon activity in MUM (MNG) is mainly associated with the active phase of the monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (active phase of the monsoon intraseasonal oscillation and strengthening of low level zonal wind), whereas in TVM it is mainly associated with the strengthening of low level zonal wind. The ABL heights are elevated during weak monsoon conditions due to convective turbulence added to the mechanical turbulence associated with the strong wind during the season.

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation of Zonal Wind in the Equatorial Stratosphere and Its Influence on Interannual Fluctuations in the Depth of the Antarctic Ozone Hole

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation of Zonal Wind in the Equatorial Stratosphere and Its Influence on Interannual Fluctuations in the Depth of the Antarctic Ozone Hole

Decadal Disruption of the QBO by Tropical Volcanic Supereruptions

AbstractThe Los Chocoyos (14.6°N, 91.2°W) supereruption happened ∼75,000 years ago in Guatemala and was one of the largest eruptions of the past 100,000 years. It emitted enormous amounts of sulfur, chlorine, and bromine, with multi‐decadal consequences for the global climate and environment. Here, we simulate the impact of a Los Chocoyos‐like eruption on the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO), an oscillation of zonal winds in the tropical stratosphere, with a comprehensive aerosol chemistry Earth System Model. We find a ∼10‐year disruption of the QBO starting 4 months post eruption, with anomalous easterly winds lasting ∼5 years, followed by westerlies, before returning to QBO conditions with a slightly prolonged periodicity. Volcanic aerosol heating and ozone depletion cooling leads to the QBO disruption and anomalous wind regimes through radiative changes and wave‐mean flow interactions. Different model ensembles, volcanic forcing scenarios and results of a second model back up the robustness of our results.

Investigating the Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Gravity Wave Potential Energy over the Equatorial Region Using the ERA5 Reanalysis Data

Atmospheric gravity waves play a crucial role in affecting atmospheric circulation, energy transportation, thermal structure, and chemical composition. Using ERA5 temperature data, the present study investigates the tropospheric to the lower mesospheric gravity wave potential energy (EP) over the equatorial region to understand the vertical coupling of the atmosphere. EP is mainly controlled by two factors. The first is zonal wind through wave–mean flow interactions, and thus EP has periodic variations that are correlated to the zonal wind oscillations and enhances around the altitudes of zero-wind shears where the zonal wind reverses. The second is the convections caused by atmospheric circulations and warm oceans, resulting in longitudinal variability in EP. The lower stratospheric and the lower mesospheric EP are negatively correlated. However, warm oceanic conditions can break this wave energy coupling and further enhance the lower mesospheric EP.

Variations of Thermospheric Winds Observed by a Fabry–Perot Interferometer at Mohe, China

AbstractA Fabry–Perot interferometer (FPI) system was deployed to observe the thermospheric winds at Mohe (53.5°N, 122.3°E), the northernmost observatory of space environment in the mainland of China, in July 2019. Thermospheric winds variations revealed from the 1 year FPI observations are as follows: (1) For the diurnal variation, southward meridional winds prevail at night and peak after midnight with amplitudes from 70 to 110 m/s; meridional winds are northward (∼40 m/s) at dusk and dawn in winter. For the zonal winds, eastward winds prevail only at dusk in summer, while it can sustain after midnight in winter. The maximum amplitudes of eastward winds are 50–130 m/s. Westward winds are strongest at dawn, with amplitudes of 75–120 m/s. (2) For the seasonal variation, both the meridional and zonal winds are dominated by annual oscillations. The semi‐annual oscillations can be observed at midnight. (3) The eastward (southward) winds become strong (weak) at midnight in January and December. An empirical model of thermospheric winds was established based on Mohe FPI observations and compared with HWM14. The variation trends of thermosphere winds described by HWM14 is basically consistent with the observations at Mohe. Moreover, Mohe FPI observations were compared with those by Kelan (38.7°N, 111.6°E) FPI. Variations of thermospheric winds showed some discrepancies between these two locations. The southward winds were significantly stronger at Mohe than at Kelan after midnight; and the semi‐annual and tri‐annual oscillations in the midnight zonal winds are observed at Mohe but not significant at Kelan.

Examining the Role of Quasi-biennial Oscillation on Rainfall patterns over Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia

A composite analysis is used to evaluate the teleconnections between the long term (June- August) rainfall anomalies with east and west phases of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the stratospheric zonal winds from 1979–2017. Applying the lower equatorial stratospheric zonal wind index in JJA rainfall prediction is based on its tendency to persist for several months after the phase change from easterly to westerly and vice versa. Below normal condition rainfall used to coin drought. This study is important because, the Upper Blue Nile region is one of the most inviting areas for different activities like agriculture and hydroelectric power; therefore, timely prediction of June-August rainfall serves farmers and other concerned sectors. The aim of this analysis is to establish the global signal quasi-biennial oscillation contribution alone at different time lags and its association among Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for estimation June-August rainfall of the Upper Blue Nile. The rainfall used as predictand while quasi-biennial oscillation & SOI datasets are used as predictors in regression model after testing collinearity of these two independent variables. Performance of regression model and actual value is tested by using statistical techniques: Root Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error and bias. The performance is seen reasonably high between actual and estimated values show strong agreement.