Zakai Equation Research Articles

Sampling and filtering with Markov chains

A new continuous-time Markov chain rate change formula is proven. This theorem is used to derive existence and uniqueness of novel filtering equations akin to the Duncan–Mortensen–Zakai equation and the Fujisaki–Kallianpur–Kunita equation but for Markov signals with general continuous-time Markov chain observations. The equations in this second theorem have the unique feature of being driven by both the observations and the process counting the observation transitions. A direct method of solving these filtering equations is also derived. Most results apply as special cases to the continuous-time Hidden Markov Models (CTHMM), which have become important in applications like disease progression tracking, The corresponding CTHMM results are stated as corollaries. Finally, application of our general theorems to Markov chain importance sampling, rejection sampling and branching particle filtering algorithms is also explained and these are illustrated by way of disease tracking simulations.

Numerical analysis of a time discretized method for nonlinear filtering problem with Lévy process observations

In this paper, we consider a nonlinear filtering model with observations driven by correlated Wiener processes and point processes. We first derive a Zakai equation whose solution is an unnormalized probability density function of the filter solution. Then, we apply a splitting-up technique to decompose the Zakai equation into three stochastic differential equations, based on which we construct a splitting-up approximate solution and prove its half-order convergence. Furthermore, we apply a finite difference method to construct a time semi-discrete approximate solution to the splitting-up system and prove its half-order convergence to the exact solution of the Zakai equation. Finally, we present some numerical experiments to demonstrate the theoretical analysis.

Wong–Zakai approximation of a stochastic partial differential equation with multiplicative noise

In this article, we derive the convergence rate for the Wong–Zakai equation of some approximation of stochastic evolution equations with multiplicative noise. To be more precise, the diffusion coefficient in front of the noise is the multiplication operator, and, is therefore not bounded, a situation not treated in the literature. Since our motivation comes from problems in numerical ling, we consider a finite, high-dimensional problem approximating a stochastic evolution equation on a random time grid. By imposing suitable stability conditions on the drift term and the time grid, we achieve a convergence rate in the mean square of order min { 1 − δ , 2 − 2 γ } , for some 0 < δ < 1 and 0 < γ < 1 / 2 .

Large deviation principles of nonlinear filtering for McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations

In this paper, we study large deviation principles of nonlinear filtering for McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations. First of all, we establish the large deviation principle for the space-distribution dependent Zakai equation by a weak convergence approach. Then based on the obtained result and the relationship between the space-distribution dependent Zakai equation and the space-distribution dependent Kushner-Stratonovich equation, the large deviation principle for the latter is proved.

An efficient Monte Carlo scheme for Zakai equations

In this paper we develop a numerical method for efficiently approximating solutions of certain Zakai equations in high dimensions. The key idea is to transform a given Zakai SPDE into a PDE with random coefficients. We show that under suitable regularity assumptions on the coefficients of the Zakai equation, the corresponding random PDE admits a solution random field which, for almost all realizations of the random coefficients, can be written as a classical solution of a linear parabolic PDE. This makes it possible to apply the Feynman–Kac formula to obtain an efficient Monte Carlo scheme for computing approximate solutions of Zakai equations. The approach achieves good results in up to 25 dimensions with fast run times.

Solving nonlinear filtering problems with correlated noise based on Hermite–Galerkin spectral method

Nonlinear filtering problem has important applications in various fields. One of the core issues in nonlinear filtering is to numerically solve the Duncan–Mortensen–Zakai (DMZ) equation, which is an evolution equation satisfied by the unnormalized conditional density of state process under noisy observations, in a real-time and memoryless manner. When the noise in observations is correlated to the state process, the DMZ equation we need to deal with is a second-order stochastic partial differential equation. In this paper, we will propose an algorithm to solve the DMZ equation in this case, based on Hermite–Galerkin spectral method. According to this method, the DMZ equation is converted into a system of linear stochastic differential equations generated by the observation process. The effects of different discretization schemes on this stochastic differential system will also be discussed. Moreover, rigorous convergence analysis of the algorithm is given under mild conditions. Numerical results show that the method proposed in this paper can provide an instantaneous and accurate estimation to the state process of the system.

An energy-based deep splitting method for the nonlinear filtering problem

The purpose of this paper is to explore the use of deep learning for the solution of the nonlinear filtering problem. This is achieved by solving the Zakai equation by a deep splitting method, previously developed for approximate solution of (stochastic) partial differential equations. This is combined with an energy-based model for the approximation of functions by a deep neural network. This results in a computationally fast filter that takes observations as input and that does not require re-training when new observations are received. The method is tested on four examples, two linear in one and twenty dimensions and two nonlinear in one dimension. The method shows promising performance when benchmarked against the Kalman filter and the bootstrap particle filter.

Mortensen observer for a class of variational inequalities – lost equivalence with stochastic filtering approaches

We address the problem of deterministic sequential estimation for a nonsmooth dynamics governed by a variational inequality. An example of such dynamics is the Skorokhod problem with a reflective boundary condition. For smooth dynamics, Mortensen introduced in 1968 a nonlinear estimator based on likelihood maximisation. Then, starting with Hijab in 1980, several authors established a connection between Mortensen’s approach and the vanishing noise limit of the robust form of the so-called Zakai equation. In this paper, we investigate to what extent these methods can be developed for dynamics governed by a variational inequality. On the one hand, we address this problem by relaxing the inequality constraint by penalization: this yields an approximate Mortensen estimator relying on an approximating smooth dynamics. We verify that the equivalence between the deterministic and stochastic approaches holds through a vanishing noise limit. On the other hand, inspired by the smooth dynamics approach, we study the vanishing viscosity limit of the Hamilton-Jacobi equation satisfied by the Hopf-Cole transform of the solution of the robust Zakai equation. In contrast to the case of smooth dynamics, the zero-noise limit of the robust form of the Zakai equation cannot be understood in our case from the Bellman equation on the value function arising in Mortensen’s procedure. This unveils a violation of equivalence for dynamics governed by a variational inequality between the Mortensen approach and the low noise stochastic approach for nonsmooth dynamics.

A Stochastic Maximum Principle for a Minimization Problem Under Partial Information

In this paper, we establish a stochastic maximum principle for a stochastic minimization problem under partial information. With the Backward stochastic differential equations (in short BSDE’s), we establish a sufficient condition of optimality to characterize and determine an optimal control. This is done instead of using the Hamiltonian which is a deterministic function. The equations translating the dynamics of the state variables of the controlled system contain an BSPDE (Backward stochastic partial differential equation) which can be the unnormalized conditional density like the Zakai equation born from a problem of passage from partial to full information.

Numerical Solution of the Problem of Filtering Estimates Information Impact on the Electorate

The formulation and numerical scheme for solving the problem of filtering estimates of the informational impact of mass media on the electorate, allowing with a high degree of accuracy at a given observation interval to estimate the number of individuals in society who prefer a certain political subject (opinion), are proposed in the article. A mathematical model for assessing the information impact on the electorate during election campaigns, which boils down to solving a stochastic differential equation – the equation of state, forms the basis of the formulation of the problem. When compiling a model for filtering information impact estimates, it is proposed to reduce the study of the equation of state to a numerical solution of the Duncan–Mortensen–Zakai equation by introducing an additional observation equation, which is obtained from the equation of state when evaluating its stochastic components (observed agitation intensities) by methods of polyspectral analysis. In the projection formulation of the Galerkin method, when reducing to a system of linear differential equations and obtaining its solution in a recursive estimation scheme when sampling the analysis interval into subintervals and using the matrix exponential method, the Duncan–Mortensen–Zakai equation is solved. For a visual comparison of the effectiveness of the generated numerical solution to the problem of filtering information impact assessments, calculations were carried out on test examples.

Nonlinear Filtering of Partially Observed Systems Arising in Singular Stochastic Optimal Control

This paper deals with a nonlinear filtering problem in which a multi-dimensional signal process is additively affected by a process nu whose components have paths of bounded variation. The presence of the process nu prevents from directly applying classical results and novel estimates need to be derived. By making use of the so-called reference probability measure approach, we derive the Zakai equation satisfied by the unnormalized filtering process, and then we deduce the corresponding Kushner–Stratonovich equation. Under the condition that the jump times of the process nu do not accumulate over the considered time horizon, we show that the unnormalized filtering process is the unique solution to the Zakai equation, in the class of measure-valued processes having a square-integrable density. Our analysis paves the way to the study of stochastic control problems where a decision maker can exert singular controls in order to adjust the dynamics of an unobservable Itô-process.

Parameter estimation and system identification for continuously-observed quantum systems

This paper gives an overview of parameter estimation and system identification for quantum input–output systems by continuous observation of the output field. We present recent results on the quantum Fisher information of the output with respect to unknown dynamical parameters. We discuss the structure of continuous-time measurements as solutions of the quantum Zakai equation, and their relationship to parameter estimation methods. Proceeding beyond parameter estimation, the paper also gives an overview of the emerging topic of quantum system identification for black-box modelling of quantum systems by continuous observation of a travelling wave probe, for the case of ergodic quantum input–output systems and linear quantum systems. Empirical methods for such black-box modelling are also discussed.

Superposition principles for the Zakai equations and the Fokker-Planck equations on measure spaces

The work concerns the superposition between the Zakai equations and the Fokker-Planck equations on measure spaces. First, we prove a superposition principle for the Fokker-Planck equations on R∞ (the set of all real sequences) under an integrability condition. Using it, we show two superposition principles for the weak solutions of the Zakai equations from the nonlinear filtering problems and the weak solutions of the Fokker-Planck equations on measure spaces. As a by-product, we give some conditions under which the Fokker-Planck equations can be solved in the weak sense.

Generalized Girsanov Transform of Processes and Zakai Equation with Jumps

Generalized Girsanov Transform of Processes and Zakai Equation with Jumps

A Small Time Approximation for the Solution to the Zakai Equation

We propose a novel small time approximation for the solution to the Zakai equation from nonlinear filtering theory. We prove that the unnormalized filtering density is well described over short time intervals by the solution of a deterministic partial differential equation of Kolmogorov type; the observation process appears in a pathwise manner through the degenerate component of the Kolmogorov’s type operator. The rate of convergence of the approximation is of order one in the lenght of the interval. Our approach combines ideas from Wong-Zakai-type results and Wiener chaos approximations for the solution to the Zakai equation. The proof of our main theorem relies on the well-known Feynman-Kac representation for the unnormalized filtering density and careful estimates which lead to completely explicit bounds.

Dynamical behavior of a nonlocal Fokker-Planck equation for a stochastic system with tempered stable noise.

We characterize a stochastic dynamical system with tempered stable noise, by examining its probability density evolution. This probability density function satisfies a nonlocal Fokker-Planck equation. First, we prove a superposition principle that the probability measure-valued solution to this nonlocal Fokker-Planck equation is equivalent to the martingale solution composed with the inverse stochastic flow. This result together with a Schauder estimate leads to the existence and uniqueness of strong solution for the nonlocal Fokker-Planck equation. Second, we devise a convergent finite difference method to simulate the probability density function by solving the nonlocal Fokker-Planck equation. Finally, we apply our aforementioned theoretical and numerical results to a nonlinear filtering system by simulating a nonlocal Zakai equation.

Nonlinear filtering of stochastic differential equations with correlated Lévy noises

The work concerns nonlinear filtering problems of stochastic differential equations with correlated Lévy noises. First, we establish the Kushner–Stratonovich and Zakai equations through martingale representation theorems and the Kallianpur–Striebel formula. Second, we show the pathwise uniqueness and uniqueness in joint law of weak solutions for the Zakai equation. Finally, we investigate the uniqueness in joint law of weak solutions to the Kushner–Stratonovich equation.

Solving Nonlinear Filtering Problems in Real Time by Legendre Galerkin Spectral Method

It is well known that the nonlinear filtering (NLF) problem has important applications in both military and civil industries. The central question is to solve the posterior conditional density function of the states, which satisfies the Kushner or the Duncan–Mortensen–Zakai (DMZ) equation after suitable change of probability measure. In this article, we shall follow the so-called Yau–Yau's algorithm to split the solution of the DMZ equation into on- and off-line part, where the off-line part is to solve the forward Kolmogorov equation (FKE) with the initial conditions to be the orthonormal bases in some suitable function space. Instead of the generalized Hermite function investigated by the second and the third author of this article, we shall explore the generalized Legendre polynomials. The Legendre spectral method (LSM) is used to numerically solve the FKE. Under certain conditions, the convergence rate of LSM is twice faster than that of the Hermite spectral method. Two two-dimensional numerical experiments of NLF problems (time-invariant and time-varying cases) have been numerically solved to illustrate the feasibility of our algorithm. Our algorithm outperforms the extended Kalman Filter and particle filter in both real-time manner and accuracy.

Unbiased estimation of the solution to Zakai’s equation

Abstract In the following article, we consider the non-linear filtering problem in continuous time and in particular the solution to Zakai’s equation or the normalizing constant. We develop a methodology to produce finite variance, almost surely unbiased estimators of the solution to Zakai’s equation. That is, given access to only a first-order discretization of solution to the Zakai equation, we present a method which can remove this discretization bias. The approach, under assumptions, is proved to have finite variance and is numerically compared to using a particular multilevel Monte Carlo method.

On L_p-solvability of stochastic integro-differential equations

A class of (possibly) degenerate stochastic integro-differential equations of parabolic type is considered, which includes the Zakai equation in nonlinear filtering for jump diffusions. Existence and uniqueness of the solutions are established in Bessel potential spaces.