Youth Labour Market Outcomes Research Articles

Territorial Configurations of School‐To‐Work Outcomes in Europe

<p>Comparative research on school-to-work transitions mainly focused on country differences, examining the variation in institutional design and its impact on shaping youth labour market outcomes. The field has been dominated by a sort of methodological nationalism assuming nation states as homogeneous objects of comparison, while the territorial variations in youth transitions among sub-national territories have been less explored, notwithstanding their potential impact on life chances. In this article, we look at the outcomes of transitions in EU regions, comparing regional configurations of school-to-work transitions and their change over time. Is it possible to identify differences among groups of regions? To what extent do these patterns change over time? In order to answer these questions, we construct and analyse a longitudinal and systematic set of indicators that combine regional aggregated outcomes of transitions from education to work and regional contextual traits at the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics level 2 for the period 2007–2019. We perform two cluster analyses to describe regional differences and trends over time. The findings provide novel insights into the characteristics and patterns of an unequal geography of youth opportunities in Europe.</p>

Getting a foot in the door: local labour markets and the school-to-work transition

ABSTRACT Despite persistent sub-national variation in youth unemployment rates, the relationship between local labour market conditions and youth labour market outcomes is not well understood. This article explores the consequences of variation in the level and type of demand for labour for the amount of time it takes young people in the United Kingdom to find employment, following departure from full-time education. Survival analysis of British Household Panel Study (BHPS) data covering the period 1998–2008 shows that variation in the level (but not the type) of demand for labour is associated with considerable heterogeneity in job search time among less qualified young people, but not their better qualified peers. On average, it takes young people with lower secondary qualifications 1 month longer to find employment of any sort and 7 months longer to find secure, full-time employment if they are located in a place of low rather than high labour demand. These findings, which highlight the contextual nature of the risk associated with low educational attainment, point to the need for greater policy focus on bridging spatial mismatch between the location of low qualified young people and the location of secure employment opportunities.

What If it Never Happened? Subjective Treatment Effects of a Negative Shock on Youth Labour Market Outcomes in Developing Countries

What If it Never Happened? Subjective Treatment Effects of a Negative Shock on Youth Labour Market Outcomes in Developing Countries

South African Youth and the Labor Market

South Africa continues to be marked by high youth unemployment. This paper investigates youth labor market perspectives in northern South Africa in the light of data from the Livelihoods, Religion and Youth Survey. In addition to standard explanatory variabless of labor market outcomes, it explores whether the ‘soft’ factors of social capital and religion might contribute to youth’s labor market success. Methodologically, the study draws on descriptive statistics and the estimation of linear probability models. The results indicate that religious social capital goes along with improved labor market success, while there is no indication in the data that (non-religious) social capital or religiosity are positively correlated with labor market performance among the youth in the sample. The social capital created in religious communities seems to contribute to youth labor market success. Further research should investigate how these structures can serve as models for the improvement of government interventions aiming at improving youth labor market outcomes. Moreover, the results are in line with the findings of previous research on spatial mismatches in the labor market and highlight the need for job creation, particularly in rural areas.

Effect of social capital on youth self-employment in Holeta town, Ethiopia

PurposeSocial resources have gained considerable interest from scholars for their effect on youth's labor market outcomes. The available evidence indicates that social capital is a crucial factor in determining youth's labor force status. This paper examines the effect of social capital components on youth self-employment in Holeta town, Ethiopia.Design/methodology/approachUsing youth survey data, principal component analysis (PCA) was conducted on social capital components datasets. This provided the construction of composite indicators for measuring social capital component, which are robust and exhibited construct validity. Following this, the effect of social capital component on youth self-employment was examined using Logit model.FindingsThe results show that institutional trust positively affects the likelihood of young people's decision to be self-employed.Practical implicationsThe finding reveals a need to improve the transparency of the institutions' resource delivery, the competency of the institutions' workforce, communication, and information sharing of the institutions with the youth.Originality/valueLooking at different social capital components simultaneously, the paper provides insight into the wide range of effects of social capital on youth self-employment.

The Impact of Vocational Training Interventions on Youth Labor Market Outcomes: A Meta-Analysis

The Impact of Vocational Training Interventions on Youth Labor Market Outcomes: A Meta-Analysis

Lost in recessions: youth employment and earnings in Spain

Young workers in Spain face the unprecedented impact of the Great Recession and the COVID-19 crisis in short sequence. Moreover, they have also experienced a deterioration in their employment and earnings over the last three decades. In this paper, we document this evolution and adopt a longitudinal approach to show that employment and earnings losses suffered by young workers during recessions are not made up in the subsequent expansions. We also estimate the size of the scarring effects of entering the job market in a recession for college-educated workers during their first decade in the labor market. Our empirical estimates indicate that while there is some evidence of scarring effects, the driving force is a trend worsening of youth labor market outcomes.

Sub-national union coverage and the youth's labor market outcomes: evidence from a national survey in Vietnam

PurposeThis paper examines the effects of sub-national union coverage on the youth's labor market outcomes.Design/methodology/approachIn the context of the private business sector in Vietnam, this study link individual labor market data with union coverage at provincial level in the period 2013–2016 to investigate the effects of sub-national union coverage on the youth's labor market outcomes. Contingent on the outcome variable, we use the OLS and probit model that control for diverse individual characteristics, year- and industry-fixed effects, and particularly control for selection bias in the labor market.FindingsThe empirical results show that the union coverage is positively associated with a wide range of the youth's labor market outcomes, including employment status, wage rate, work hour, and job formality. Also, the coverage is complementary to individual labor contract in determining the youth's wage rate.Practical implicationOur empirical results indicate positive associations between union coverage and the youth's multi-dimensional labor market outcomes, which contribute to this young age cohort's smooth school-to-work transition, provided that the role of trade union is challenged both in developing and developed countries.Originality/valueThis study provides an in-depth study on the interplay between trade union and the youth's labor market outcomes that contributes to the literature of labor market institutions and youth employment policies in a dynamic transitional economy of Vietnam.

Social Class and the Labor Market Outcomes of Youth : Focusing on the Effects of Fathers’ Educational Attainment and Vocational and Career-related Education on Youth’s Transition to the Labor Market

Social Class and the Labor Market Outcomes of Youth : Focusing on the Effects of Fathers’ Educational Attainment and Vocational and Career-related Education on Youth’s Transition to the Labor Market

Complementarities between Labour Market Institutions and their Causal Impact on Youth Labour Market Outcomes

Abstract We analyse theoretically and empirically the effects on young people’s labour market outcomes of two specific labour market institutions and their interaction: employment protection legislation and active labour market policy. The paper examines recent policy reforms in Italy focussing on the impact of the 2012 Fornero reforms of employment protection legislation as well as the initial impact of the EU-wide Youth Guarantee scheme introduced in Italy in March 2014. The paper then examines how these two policy reforms interacted. The analysis first confirms the finding that the Fornero reform increased permanent hires particularly amongst the very youngest workers; it then goes on to find that the YG was indeed successful in increasing the hires of young people, although this operated through a statistically significant increase in female hires on temporary contracts. Third, it finds some evidence of a dampening effect of the YG on EPL reforms as predicted by theory.

Working for 200 Euro? The Unintended Effects of Traineeship Reform on Youth Labor Market Outcomes

AbstractThis paper evaluates the effects of an active labor market policy (ALMP) reform, the so‐called SOR measure (vocational training for work without commencing employment), on youth labor market outcomes in the newest EU member state—Croatia. In 2012, SOR was redesigned to ease the first labor market entry and promote on‐the‐job training, enabling a young person without relevant work experience to get a one‐year contract and a net monthly remuneration of 210 euro, while after 2014, the measure also became a part of the European Youth Guarantee. Pooling Croatian Labor Force Surveys from 2007 to 2016 and using the difference‐in‐difference strategy, we estimate the causal intent‐to‐treat effect of the program reform on labor market outcomes. The main results indicate that the reform has had, at best, neutral effects on employment and unemployment, while there is evidence that a portion of young individuals was propelled into inactivity. Though expected, adverse effect on wages—both at the mean and at higher percentiles of the wage distribution—is driven mostly by wages received by women and university graduates.

SOCIAL INVESTMENT AND YOUTH LABOR MARKET PARTICIPATION

In this paper, we first rely on small area techniques to derive from EU statistics on income and living conditions (EU‐SILC) survey new indicators of compensatory and social‐investment policies at regional level. While compensatory policies have mainly the goal of protecting individuals from “old” risks (e.g., old‐age), investment‐related social policies tend to focus more on “new social risks” (e.g., skill deficits). We rely on these new indicators to perform a data‐driven structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) analysis to investigate the causal relationships between youth labor market outcomes and these two types of spending. Our results support the view that social‐investment policies are effective for tackling new social challenges. (JEL C18, C54, E02)

Labour incorporation of young Southern European graduates in Mexico: the impact of the economic crisis

ABSTRACT The 2008 economic crisis has had particularly negative effects on the youth labour market outcomes in Southern Europe. Thus, it is hardly surprising that many Southern European youngsters see migration as the only way to escape from under-employment and precariousness. In this context, the article studies the reasons for emigration to Mexico of a group of young graduates from Italy and Spain. The paper is based on 42 in-depth semi-structured interviews with young graduates, aged 29 years old or less on their arrival in Mexico. The article first explores the relevance of the economic crisis as the main reason behind the migration of this group. It is revealed that the interviewed graduates had a precarious labour incorporation back in their countries of origin, and migration appeared as a means to further their careers. Second, the paper analyses the interviewees’ labour incorporation in Mexico; in many cases this coincides with an extended university-work transition, since many of them had not secured full-time permanent jobs before their arrival in Mexico. Finally, the paper explores the interviewees’ future plans. These depend not only on their work experiences in Mexico but also on their degree of social and cultural integration in the host country.

Duration of High School Education and Youth Labour Market Outcomes: Evidence from a Policy Experiment in Ghana

AbstractThis paper estimates the effects of an additional year in senior high school (SHS) on early labour market outcomes in Ghana. Using data from a nationally representative household survey, we find that an additional year in SHS increases the likelihood of being employed and being employed in the formal sector but has no effect on the likelihood of being in paid employment. Additionally, we find that the effects are concentrated in female samples. Although the results constitute an important contribution to the debate on duration of SHS in Ghana, we caution that policy interventions should be based on more extensive evidence. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The linkage between the education and employment systems: ideal types of vocational education and training programs

ABSTRACT This article contributes to the literature by proposing a methodological approach that scholars in all research fields can use to develop high-quality explanatory typologies. We argue that every typology should be constructed using a systematic, transparent process and must have a strong theoretical foundation to validate its explanatory value. Drawing on Max Weber’s typology theory, we apply our approach to construct three ideal types of vocational education and training (VET) programs. By bypassing heterogeneous context conditions, our typological approach enables us to compare VET programs based on the criteria that are relevant to an explanation of youth labor market outcomes. We build on Niklas Luhmann’s theory of social systems, which helps elucidate the significance of the linkage between actors from the education and employment systems in VET. The first ideal type, with maximal linkage, entails equal power-sharing between both kinds of actors. We expect such a VET program to have the most favorable outcome. The other two ideal types, in which one system has all the power, result in either undesirable youth labor market outcomes, such as unemployment or skills mismatch, or lack of access to further education.

Intergenerational Fairness: Will Our Kids Live Better than We Do

While large government deficits and debt raise concerns regarding intergenerational fairness, their longterm intergenerational impacts can significantly differ, depending on demographic shifts and future economic policy. In particular, population aging in Canada has accelerated during the past decade due to declining fertility and improving life expectancy. This demographic transition poses new fiscal challenges since it dampens growth in government revenue while putting pressure on government spending, particularly in healthcare and public pensions. Generational accounting is a powerful tool for assessing the lifetime fiscal burden on current and future generations, given demographic and economic projections. The method requires estimating the present value of government’s current and future net revenues to cover all current and future spending plus net debt. A large imbalance between the net tax burden faced by current and future generations over their lifetimes, in favor of current generations, would mean that existing fiscal policies are unfair and unsustainable. Using generational accounting, this Commentary shows that the projected lifetime fiscal burdens of the youngest generation (born since 2005) and future generations are very high: higher than those of any other generations, especially those born from the mid-1950s to the 1990s. Generally speaking, babyboomers and their children fare well in this scenario, but the grandkids of babyboomers do not. Looking to the future, we also specifically compare the prospective net tax burden faced by today’s newborns with those that will be faced by future generations. Here, the results are less troubling. We find future generations of Canadians are expected to face a slightly lower lifetime tax burden than newborns, implying relative intergenerational balance looking out into the future. However, small changes to the baseline scenario can make that balance tip unfavourably for future generations. For example, both higher-than-expected interest rates and lower-than-expected population growth would lead to generational imbalance by imposing higher net tax burdens on future generations. Also, failing to restrain the growth of healthcare spending below its recent experience (1996 to 2010 average) could shift the tax burden to future, unborn generations, and lead to a large and likely untenable imbalance. To ensure future intergenerational fairness and sustainability, policies that improve labour market outcomes of youth, women and immigrants, and that encourage a longer working life, should be supported. Restraining the growth of healthcare spending at a sustainable level is also a must.

Complementarities between Labour Market Institutions and Their Causal Impact on Youth Labour Market Outcomes

We analyse theoretically and empirically the effects on young people's labour market outcomes of two specific labour market institutions and their interaction: employment protection legislation andactive labour market policy. The paper examines recent policy reforms in Italy focusing on the impact of the 2012 Fornero reforms of employment protection legislation as well as the initial impact of the EU-wide Youth Guarantee scheme introduced in Italy in March 2014. The paper then examines how these two policy reforms interacted. The analysis first confirms the finding that the Fornero reform increased permanent hires particularly amongst the very youngest workers; it then goes on to find that the YG was indeed successful in increasing the hires of young people, although this operated through a statistically significant increase in female hires on temporary contracts. Third, it finds some evidence of dampening effect of the YG on EPL reforms as predicted by theory.

The effects of youth transition programs on labor market outcomes of youth with disabilities

The process of “transitioning” to adulthood for youth with disabilities has long been recognized to be an important but understudied public policy concern. This paper evaluates the labor market effects of Virginia’s school-to-work vocational evaluation program, PERT. Using a unique panel data set containing more than a decade of labor market and service information, we provide the first-ever assessment of the long-term employment impacts of a transitioning program for youth with disabilities. Overall, the estimated effects are substantial: PERT has an estimated median quarterly rate of return of nearly 30%.

Vocational training programs and youth labor market outcomes: Evidence from Nepal

Lack of skills is arguably one of the most important determinants of high levels of unemployment and poverty. In response, policymakers often initiate vocational training programs in effort to enhance skill formation among the youth. Using a regression-discontinuity design, we examine a large youth training intervention in Nepal. We find, twelve months after the start of the training program, that the intervention generated an increase in non-farm employment of 10 percentage points (ITT estimates) and up to 31 percentage points for program compliers (LATE estimates). We also detect sizeable gains in monthly earnings. Women who start self-employment activities inside their homes largely drive these impacts. We argue that low baseline educational levels and non-farm employment levels and Nepal’s social and cultural norms towards women drive our large program impacts. Our results suggest that the program enables otherwise underemployed women to earn an income while staying at home – close to household errands and in line with the socio-cultural norms that prevent them from taking up employment outside the house.

Youth labor market expectations and job matching in sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from school-to-work transition surveys

ABSTRACTIn this paper, we investigate the factors that influence youth labour market expectations and outcomes. We also perform a job matching exercise to understand youth labour market dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our results show that youth education is an influential factor of youth employment expectations and employment, ceteris paribus. Higher educational attainments have a great impact on expecting and securing better jobs, particularly in the technical and professional fields. Youth with low educational attainments, particularly primary education and lower, have a higher tendency to expect to be employed in occupations with low job complexity. Our results indicate a severe job-skill mismatch in all occupational categories, both before and after the youth’s transition into the labour market. Using education as the only selection criterion, we found that less than 10 per cent of employment expectations match with skills required while 55 per cent and 34 per cent are under or over-educated for the jobs expected, respectively. Over and under education is a notable feature in youth labour markets in Sub-Saharan Africa. About 47 per cent of employed youth in the sample are overqualified for their respective jobs while 28 per cent are under qualified.