Yangxin County Research Articles

Landscape, chronology and function of Bronze Age terrace-shaped settlements: A case study from the Youzhashan site in Yangxin County, Hubei Province, China

The Middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, constituting a region rich in metal resources, played an important role in the formation and early development of the Bronze Age civilization in China, mainly including mainly the southeastern part of Hubei Province, the northern part of Jiangxi Province and the southern part of Anhui Province. Geological surveys have revealed that this region, which stretches for 500 km along the Yangtze River, is rich in mines, and archaeological institutions have discovered a large number of Bronze Age mining and metallurgical sites in the region over the past three decades. This region is an important area for studying the rise and prosperity of the Chinese Bronze Age civilization. Therefore, exploring the production pattern of the bronze industry in the copper mining area in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, as well as the resource circulation network between this region and the northern part of China, has become a hot issue in Chinese archaeological research in recent years.From March to July 2023, Wuhan University and the Cultural Relics Bureau of Yangxin County formed a joint archaeological team to carry out an archaeological survey of mining and metallurgical sites in an independent geographic unit in the northern part of Yangxin County, Hubei Province, covering an area of 120 km2, and a total of 60 mining and metallurgical sites were discovered during the survey, and approximately two-thirds of the 60 sites exhibited the landscape with a more typical terrace-shaped site. In this study, we have carried out systematic archaeological exploration and drone mapping of the Youzhashan site, a typical terrace-shaped site in this region, and reconstructed the process of terrace-shaped site accumulation formation using materials from archaeological excavation, exploration and survey. In addition, scientific and technological tests were conducted on the metallurgical relics collected from the Youzhashan site, which revealed the occurrence e of copper smelting activities at the Youzhashan site, and we analyzed the processing system. In addition, the carbon samples excavated from the Youzhashan site were carbon dated to determine the exact date of the formation of the Youzhashan site.

Machine learning-driven source identification and ecological risk prediction of heavy metal pollution in cultivated soils

To overcome challenges in assessing the impact of environmental factors on heavy metal accumulation in soil due to limited comprehensive data, our study in Yangxin County, Hubei Province, China, analyzed 577 soil samples in combination with extensive big data. We used machine learning techniques, the potential ecological risk index, and the bivariate local Moran’s index (BLMI) to predict Cr, Pb, Cd, As, and Hg concentrations in cultivated soil to assess ecological risks and identify pollution sources. The random forest model was selected for its superior performance among various machine learning models, and results indicated that heavy metal accumulation was substantially influenced by environmental factors such as climate, elevation, industrial activities, soil properties, railways, and population. Our ecological risk assessment highlighted areas of concern, where Cd and Hg were identified as the primary threats. BLMI was used to analyze spatial clustering and autocorrelation patterns between ecological risk and environmental factors, pinpointing areas that require targeted interventions. Additionally, redundancy analysis revealed the dynamics of heavy metal transfer to crops. This detailed approach mapped the spatial distribution of heavy metals, highlighted the ecological risks, identified their sources, and provided essential data for effective land management and pollution mitigation.

Characterization and Risk Assessment of Nutrient and Heavy Metal Pollution in Surface Sediments of Representative Lakes in Yangxin County, China

Increased urbanization and industrialization globally have led to the widespread pollution of water bodies (e.g., lakes) by heavy metals (HMs) and nutrients. These pollutants accumulate in water and surface sediments, posing risks to both aquatic organisms and human health. In November 2022, surface sediment samples from three lakes—Lianhua Lake, Mati Lake, and North Lake—were collected to assess nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorous) and HM content. Total N (TN), total P (TP), and HM concentrations were analyzed. The pollution status was evaluated using comprehensive pollution index (FF) methods and the potential ecological risk index (RI) (Eri). The results were as follows: (1) Variations in nutrient and HM contents were observed among the three lakes. Lianhua Lake exhibited the highest average TN content (1600 mg/kg), while North Lake had the highest average TP content (2230 mg/kg). The average concentrations of Cd, Hg, and As in the surface sediment surpassed the soil background values of Hubei Province, reaching 1.41, 2.74, and 1.76 times the background values, respectively. Notably, Hg exceeded the standard in Lianhua Lake by 3.39 times, followed by North Lake (2.52 times) and Mati Lake (2.24 times). (2) The FF and potential Eri revealed that the average RI values for Mati Lake, North Lake, and Lianhua Lake were 106.88, 126.63, and 162.18, respectively. These indices categorized the ecological risk levels as moderate, while nutrient salts in the surface water reached a severe pollution level. (3) Correlation and PCA indicated that Cu, Pb, Cd, and Ni were linked to mineral smelting, aquaculture feed, and agricultural fertilizers. Hg and nutrient salts originated from atmospheric deposition of surrounding domestic waste water and traffic exhaust gases. Agricultural activities seemed to contribute to As concentration in the lakes, while Cr has its main origin in the weathering of the rock matrix.

Spatial distribution of Oncomelania hupensis spread in Hubei Province from 2020 to 2022

To identify the spatial distribution pattern of Oncomelania hupensis spread in Hubei Province, so as to provide insights into precision O. hupensis snail control in the province. Data pertaining to emerging and reemerging snails were collected from Hubei Province from 2020 to 2022 to build a spatial database of O. hupensis snail spread. The spatial clustering of O. hupensis snail spread was identified using global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses, and the hot spots of snail spread were identified using kernel density estimation. In addition, the correlation between environments with snail spread and the distance from the Yangtze River was evaluated using nearest-neighbor analysis and Spearman correlation analysis. O. hupensis snail spread mainly occurred along the Yangtze River and Jianghan Plain in Hubei Province from 2020 to 2022, with a total spread area of 4 320.63 hm2, including 1 230.77 hm2 emerging snail habitats and 3 089.87 hm2 reemerging snail habitats. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed spatial autocorrelation in the O. hupensis snail spread in Hubei Province in 2020 and 2021, appearing a spatial clustering pattern (Moran's I = 0.003 593 and 0.060 973, both P values < 0.05), and the mean density of spread snails showed spatial aggregation in Hubei Province in 2020 (Moran's I = 0.512 856, P < 0.05). Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the high-high clustering areas of spread snails were mainly distributed in 50 settings of 10 counties (districts) in Hubei Province from 2020 to 2022, and the high-high clustering areas of the mean density of spread snails were predominantly found in 219 snail habitats in four counties of Jiangling, Honghu, Yangxin and Gong'an. Kernel density estimation showed that there were high-, secondary high- and medium-density hot spots in snail spread areas in Hubei Province from 2020 to 2022, which were distributed in Jingzhou District, Wuxue District, Honghu County and Huangzhou District, respectively. There were high- and medium-density hot spots in the mean density of spread snails, which were located in Jiangling County, Honghu County and Yangxin County, respectively. In addition, the snail spread areas negatively correlated with the distance from the Yangtze River (r = -0.108 9, P < 0.05). There was spatial clustering of O. hupensis snail spread in Hubei Province from 2020 to 2022. The monitoring and control of O. hupensis snails require to be reinforced in the clustering areas, notably in inner embankments to prevent reemerging schistosomiasis.

The construction of an ecological security pattern based on the comprehensive evaluation of the importance of ecosystem service and ecological sensitivity: a case of Yangxin County, Hubei Province

An ecological safety pattern is the basic guarantee for pollution control, ecological environmental protection, economic construction, and sustainable social development, and is an important means of integrated and coordinated development, protection, and governance. This study proposes a research method to identify ecological source sites based on the evaluation of the importance of ecosystem services and ecological sensitivity, and to identify ecological corridors using the minimum cumulative resistance model. The empirical analysis was carried out in Yangxin County, Hubei Province, as an example. The results show that the study area has 16 key corridors and 29 potential corridors, a total of 45 ecological corridors, with a total length of 452 km. In addition, these ecological corridors present a network-like intertwined distribution, connecting various ecological source sites and ensuring the connectivity between ecological source sites, while the well-developed water source sites in the study area provide excellent ecosystem service functions such as water containment for the area.

Endophytic Bacteria in Ricinus communis L.: Diversity of Bacterial Community, Plant−Growth Promoting Traits of the Isolates and Its Effect on Cu and Cd Speciation in Soil

Ricinus communis L. shows certain tolerance to and good accumulation ability with heavy metals. Endophytic bacteria−enhanced phytoremediation is an effective method to improve heavy metal extraction efficiency. Here, for better application of castor in phytoremediation, the Illumina high−throughput sequencing was carried out to reveal the endophytic bacterial community in the tissues of castor grown in two locations, and traditional microbial cultivation was used to isolate endophytic bacteria from castor. The dominant bacterial phyla were Proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Actinobacteria, Firmicutes and Acidobacteria, and Proteobacteria was absolutely dominate in all castor tissues. There were significant differences in the composition of endophytic bacterial communities between castor grown in two sites, with obvious variation in the relative abundance of the dominant phylum. The samples from two sites also had their own unique dominant bacterial genera. The analysis of alpha diversity illustrated that the diversity and species richness of endophytic bacteria community in different parts of castor sampled in Tonglushan mining area were lower than those in Gangxia village, Yangxin county. In total, there were 44 endophytic bacteria strains isolated from the tissues of castor, of which 42 strains possessed three or more growth−promoting properties. Most of these isolates were tolerant to Cu or Cd to varying degrees. Eight isolates were selected for further Cu mobilization and soil incubation experiments. Strains TR8, TR18, TR21, YL1, YS3 and YS5 could well solubilize Cu2(OH)2CO3 in medium. Strain YS3 had the best effect on increasing soil DTPA−Cu and DTPA−Cd contents by 8.4% and 6.9%, respectively. Inoculated endophytic isolates were conducive to the conversion of heavy metal forms from insoluble to relatively unstable, and could increase available phosphate content in soil (10.8–29.2%). Therefore, the plant growth−promoting endophytes screened from castor have great application prospects and can provide important support for the microbial−assisted phytoremediation of heavy metal−contaminated soil.

Characteristics, Sources and Health Risk of Heavy Metals in Road Dust in the Typical County Town, Central China

In this study, to investigate the contamination characteristics and potential health implications of heavy metals in road dust of the typical county in central China, heavy metals (Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, V, Pb, Zn) in typical road dust with large traffic flow, in different functional areas of Yangxin County, were determined. The results of the geo-accumulation index (Igeo) showed that Co, Mn, Ni, and V were not polluted, while other heavy metals caused different degrees of pollution. According to principal component analysis (PCA), there were three main sources of heavy metals. The result of statistical analysis showed that heavy metal pollution in road dust mainly comes from traffic activities, industrial production activities, building pollution, and the natural environment. The carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks of children and adults were within the safe range, and hand–oral contact was the main exposure route of non-carcinogenic risks. The non-carcinogenic risk and carcinogenic effects of heavy metals in urban road dust were acceptable to children and adults. However, we should still pay attention to the impact of heavy metals on the ecological environment and human health.

Measuring Sustainable Intensification Using Satellite Remote Sensing Data

Farm-level sustainable intensification metrics are needed to evaluate farm performance and support policy-making processes aimed at enhancing sustainable production. Farm-level sustainable intensification metrics require environmental impacts associated with agricultural production to be accounted for. However, it is common that such indicators are not available. We show how satellite-based remote sensing information can be used in combination with farm efficiency analysis to obtain a sustainable intensification (SI) indicator, which can serve as a sustainability benchmarking tool for farmers and policy makers. We obtained an SI indicator for 114 maize farms in Yangxin County, located in the Shandong Province in China, by combining information on maize output and inputs with satellite information on the leaf area index (from which a nitrogen environmental damage indicator is derived) into a farm technical efficiency analysis using a stochastic frontier approach. We compare farm-level efficiency scores between models that incorporate environmental damage indicators based on satellite-based remote sensing information and models that do not account for environmental impact. The results demonstrate that (a) satellite-based information can be used to account for environmental impacts associated with agriculture production and (b) how the environmental impact metrics derived from satellite-based information combined with farm efficiency analysis can be used to obtain a farm-level sustainable intensification indicator. The approach can be used to obtain tools for farmers and policy makers aiming at improving SI.

Evolution and variations of atmospheric VOCs and O3 photochemistry during a summer O3 event in a county-level city, Southern China

Studies on ambient volatile organic compound (VOC) and ozone (O3) pollution in county-level cities in China are scarce. The variations of atmospheric VOCs and O3 photochemistry on O3 pollution and non-O3 pollution period were explored in summer 2019 in a typical county-level city, Southern China. The average O3 concentration was 84.2 ppbv during an O3 episode, which was more than 1.6 times higher than that on non-O3 pollution days. The VOC concentration was 20.0 ± 4.5 ppbv during the sampling period, which was about × 1.5 lower than megacities and suburban areas. The OH, HO2, and RO2 radicals and O3 photochemistry are simulated using a box model. O3 formation was dominated by the reaction of HO2+NO. OH + NO2 was the major contributor to O3 destruction. The net O3 production rates were higher on O3 episode days as compared to non-O3 episode periods. O3 formation regimes were explored using the empirical kinetics modelling approach (EKMA). The shift of wind directions led to the change from transition regimes to NOX-limited regimes. Industrial source was a critical element in the increasing VOC concentrations, compositions, the transition of O3 formation regimes, and formation of O3 episodes. The results revealed that O3 formation in the Yangxin County was governed by interplay of meteorological conditions, O3 precursors, emissions sources, air mass transport, photochemical production conditions, and O3 formation regimes. There were distinct chemical features in the atmosphere of county-level cities and megacities.

Pollution Characteristics and Associated Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in Farmland Soils From a Typical County of Hubei Province, Central China

Knowledge from the negative impacts of the counties' anthropogenic activities on soil pollution was of great significance in China, and valuable information was urgently needed for the control and remediation of soil pollution. The current pollution levels of heavy metals (Cu, Pb, Cd, Zn, Ni, and Cr) in farmland soils were investigated in Yangxin County, Hubei Province, central China. The comprehensive results of quantitative comparison and evaluation in this study showed that Cu (144.9 ± 298.6mgkg-1), Cd (2.9 ± 1.6mgkg-1), and Ni (137.0 ± 111.0mgkg-1) posed higher pollution risks to public and ecosystem health, which were higher than the corresponding soil background values. The combined results of geostatistics, spatial and statistical analysis indicated that studied heavy metals were mainly attributed to agricultural, traffic and industrial induced pollution. Overall, urgent attention should be paid to the risk reduction and management of soil Cu, Cd, and Ni pollution in the study area.

Comparison of N2O Emissions From Cold Waterlogged and Normal Paddy Fields

Paddy fields are major sources of atmospheric N2O. Soil temperature and moisture strongly affect N2O emissions from rice fields. However, N2O emissions from cold-waterlogged paddy fields (CW), an important kind of paddy soil in China, are not well studied so far. It is unclear whether the N2O emissions from cold-waterlogged paddy fields are the same as normal paddy fields (NW). We investigated the N2O emission characteristics from the CW and NW paddy fields under with (R1) and without (R0) rice in Tuku Village, Baisha Town, Yangxin County (YX site, monitoring in 2013) and Huandiqiao Town, Daye City (DY site, monitoring in 2014); compared the difference and influencing factors between the CW and NW paddy fields at two sites in South China. The results showed that the N2O emissions from NWR0 were 13.4 times higher than from CWR0, and from NWR1 were 10.3 times higher than from CWR1 in the YX site. The N2O emissions from NWR0 were 2.4 times higher than from CWR0, and from NWR1 were 17.3 times higher than from CWR1 in the DY site. The structural equation models (SEMs) showed that the N2O emissions are mainly driven by rice planting and soil moisture in the NW fields at the annual scale, while soil temperature in the CW fields. Overall, N2O emissions from cold waterlogged paddy fields are significantly lower than those of normal paddy fields due to the low temperature and higher water content; however, there are dinitrogen emissions from cold waterlogged paddy fields denitrification should be further examined.

Detection of Infectious Agents Causing Neonatal Calf Diarrhea on Two Large Dairy Farms in Yangxin County, Shandong Province, China.

Neonatal calf diarrhea (NCD) is one of the most serious health challenges facing the livestock industry and has caused substantial economic losses due to increased morbidity and mortality rates. The present study investigated the main infectious pathogens causing NCD among cattle in Yangxin County, China. Sixty-nine fecal samples were collected from diarrheic newborn cattle and tested for infectious agents, including bovine rotavirus, bovine coronavirus, Escherichia coli K99, Cryptosporidium parvum, and Giardia lamblia, that cause NCD, as determined by rapid kit analysis and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification. The PCR results showed that the percentages of samples that were positive for C. parvum, bovine rotavirus A, bovine coronavirus, and G. lamblia were 44.93, 36.23, 17.39, and 13.04%, respectively. The rapid kit analysis results showed that the prevalence of C. parvum, rotavirus, coronavirus, and G. lamblia was 52.17, 31.88, 28.98, and 18.84%, respectively. No E. coli K99 was detected by either method. The total positivity of the samples, as determined by PCR and rapid kit analysis, was 80.00 and 81.16%, respectively. No significant difference between the two methods was observed. The results of this study may help to establish a foundation for future research investigating the epidemiology of NCD in cattle and may facilitate the implementation of measures to control NCD transmission to cattle in Yangxin County, Shandong Province, China.

The influence of soil temperature, methanogens and methanotrophs on methane emissions from cold waterlogged paddy fields

Paddy fields are major sources of atmospheric methane (CH4). However, CH4 emissions from cold-waterlogged paddy fields, a major type of paddy soil in China, remain unclear. Here we investigated the CH4 emissions and associated influential factors in cold-waterlogged paddy fields at two sites (Yangxin County and Daye City) in Hubei Province, South China. Normal paddy fields matched with parental material and cropping system were used as the controls. The CH4 emissions from cold-waterlogged fields were significantly higher than those from normal fields with (3.0–4.4-fold) or without (3.5–8.6-fold) rice. Rice planting increased CH4 emissions by 59–78% in cold-waterlogged fields and by 85–247% in normal fields. CH4 instantaneous fluxes were positively correlated with soil temperature and methanogen mcrA (methyl coenzyme M reductase alpha subunit) and methanotroph pmoA (methane monooxygenase) copy numbers at the annual scale. Under rice planting, mcrA copy number was higher in cold-waterlogged fields than in normal fields at both sites, whereas pmoA copy number had the same trend at the Daye site only. Soil temperature and water content influenced mcrA and pmoA copy numbers in the normal paddy fields, whereas soil organic matter content was more influential in the cold-waterlogged paddy fields. These findings suggest that perennial waterlogging is a prerequisite for substantial CH4 emissions from cold-waterlogged paddy fields, and it promotes the proliferation of methanogens and methanotrophs under rice planting. Therefore, CH4 production-oxidation processes are more active in cold-waterlogged paddy fields than in normal paddy fields.

Spatiotemporal pattern analysis of schistosomiasis based on village level in the transmission control stage in lake and marshland areas in China.

Hubei Province is one of the endemic regions with severe schistosomiasis in China. To eliminate schistosomiasis in lake and marshland regions, this study detected hotspots of schistosomiasis cases both spatially and spatiotemporally on the basis of spatial autocorrelation; clustering and outlier, purely spatial and spatiotemporal cluster analyses at the village level from 2013 to 2017 in Hubei Province. The number of cases confirmed positive by an immunodiagnostic test and etiological diagnosis and advanced schistosomiasis cases dramatically declined during the study period. Significant global spatial autocorrelation of schistosomiasis patients was found at the village level in the whole province in 5 years. Clustering and outlier analysis showed that most HH villages were mainly concentrated along the Yangtze River, especially in Jianghan Plain. Spatial and spatiotemporal cluster analyses showed that significant clusters of the schistosomiasis cases were detected at the village level. In general, space and spatiotemporal clustering of schistosomiasis cases at the village level demonstrated a downward trend from 2013 from 2017 in Hubei Province. High-risk regions included Jianghan Plain along the middle reach of Yangtze River and Yangxin County in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River in Hubei Province. To eliminate schistosomiasis, precise control and management of schistosomiasis cases should be strictly implemented. Moreover, comprehensive prevention and control measures should be continuously strengthened in these regions.

Ecological Risk and Restoration Measures Relating to Heavy Metal Pollution in Industrial and Mining Wastelands.

In this study, we applied an integrated approach to an ecological risk evaluation of heavy metal pollution in industrial and mining wastelands in Yangxin County, China. A total of 72 sampling sites were designated in the study area. The results show that the potential ecological risk levels of Hg and Cd are higher, and the coefficient of variation of mercury levels is large. Cr, Cu, Zn, Pb, Ni, and As are all at low potential ecological risk. The land types with relatively high ecological risks are alum and coal mines. In the soil of alum mines, the risk due to mercury is higher, while in coal mine soil, the risk due to cadmium is relatively higher.

Effect of schistosomiasis control in Yangxin County, Hubei Province, 2004-2015

To evaluate the effect of schistosomiasis control and prevention in Yangxin County from 2004 to 2015, so as to provide the evidence for improving the work of schistosomiasis transmission interrupted and elimination in the future. According to the endemic types and endemic regularity of schistosomiasis in Yangxin County, the comprehensive control strategies were adopted, and the programs related to sanitation, water conservancy, forestry, and agriculture were implemented continuously. The schistosomiasis control effects in this county from 2004 to 2015 were analyzed and compared. After the implementation of the schistosomiasis comprehensive control strategies in Yangxin County, the calculated number of patients reduced from 22 240 in 2004 to 1 471 in 2015, the infection rate of residents reduced from 8.57% in 2004 to 0.16% in 2015, the number of patients with acute schistosome infection reduced from 64 in 2004 to 0, and no cases of acute schistosomiasis found since 2009. The infection rate of cattle decreased from 8.87% in 2004 to 0. The area with Oncomelania hupensis snails and the area of susceptible zone reduced from 3 446.21 hm2 and 1 111.59 hm2 in 2004 to 2 285.75 hm2 and 41.28 hm2 in 2015 respectively, and the schistosome-infection rate of snails reduced from 0.76% in 2004 to 0. Since the comprehensive control strategy implemented from 2004, the endemic situation of schistosomiasis in Yangxin County has decreased significantly. However, the harness force of the Fu River as well as the control of infection source of livestock still should be strengthened to consolidate the control achievement.

Application effect of pericardial devascularization plus gastric fundus transaction in advanced schistosomiasis

To discuss the effect of pericardial devascularization plus gastric fundus transaction in advance schistosomiasis patients with portal hypertension. Thirty-six advanced schistosomiasis patients with portal hypertension treated with devascularization plus gastric fundus transaction (a portal hypertension group), as well as 10 patients treated with modified Sugiura operation (a modified Sugiura operation group) in the Third People's Hospital of Yangxin County since 2006 were chosen as the observation objects, and the clinical effects of the two groups were observed and compared. The operation time, indwelling time of stomach tube, time to taking food after operation, drainage tube removal time of the portal hypertension group were all shorten than those of the modified Sugiura operation group (all P＜0.05). The hospitalization expenses of the two groups were (25 466.00 ± 2 888.48) Yuan and (34 517.10 ± 4 948.39) Yuan respectively, and the difference was also statistically significant (P＜0.05). The incidence rates of portal thrombosis of the portal hypertension group and modified Sugiura operation group were 33.33% (12/36) and 40.00% (4/10), respectively, and the incidence rates of rehaemorrhagia of the two groups 12 months after the operation were 16.67% (6/36) and 10.00% (1/10), respectively, but the differences had no statistically significance (both P ＞ 0.05). In addition, 1 case with delayed gastric emptying and 1 case with stomal leak of esophagus happened in the modified Sugiura operation group, while no corresponding complications happened in the portal hypertension group. Pericardial devascularization plus gastric fundus is a relatively easy procedure which has a good short-term clinical effect, and therefore it is suitable for application in primary hospitals. However, its long-term effect still needs further observation.

Using a Hybrid Model to Forecast the Prevalence of Schistosomiasis in Humans.

Background: We previously proposed a hybrid model combining both the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and the nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NARNN) models in forecasting schistosomiasis. Our purpose in the current study was to forecast the annual prevalence of human schistosomiasis in Yangxin County, using our ARIMA-NARNN model, thereby further certifying the reliability of our hybrid model. Methods: We used the ARIMA, NARNN and ARIMA-NARNN models to fit and forecast the annual prevalence of schistosomiasis. The modeling time range included was the annual prevalence from 1956 to 2008 while the testing time range included was from 2009 to 2012. The mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to measure the model performance. We reconstructed the hybrid model to forecast the annual prevalence from 2013 to 2016. Results: The modeling and testing errors generated by the ARIMA-NARNN model were lower than those obtained from either the single ARIMA or NARNN models. The predicted annual prevalence from 2013 to 2016 demonstrated an initial decreasing trend, followed by an increase. Conclusions: The ARIMA-NARNN model can be well applied to analyze surveillance data for early warning systems for the control and elimination of schistosomiasis.

Study on family and economic burden caused by chronic Schistosomiasis japonica

To evaluate the family and economic burden of chronic Schistosomiasis japonica. Relevant information on 226 chronic schistosomiasis patients from four surveillance sites in Yangxin county was collected. A questionnaire survey was conducted on 219 of them who agreed to corporate. Family burden was estimated with standard Family Burden Scale of Disease (FBS). Direct economic burden was calculated by questionnaire survey. Human capital method combined with Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) was adopted to evaluate the indirect economic burden. The positive rates on the dimensions of family economic burden and family entertainment were 54.8 percent and 47.0 percent respectively. The remaining dimensions were lower than 40.0 percent. Results of the questionnaire survey among 219 chronic Schistosomiasis patients showed that the total economic burden was 353,480.59 Chinese Yuan, which was 1614.07 Yuan per person. The direct and indirect economic burden were 61,679 and 291,801.59 Yuan respectively. The average direct and indirect economic burden when counted on money losses, were 281.64 and 1332.43 Yuan per person, respectively. The family burden caused by chronic Schistosomiasis japonica was serious, economically in particular. With regard to the income level of local residents, the economic burden of chronic Schistosomiasis was heavy to every household with indirect economic burden accounted for major proportion, suggesting close attention to be paid.