Worst Week Research Articles

Short-Term Load Forecasting Using an LSTM Neural Network for a Grid Operator

Electricity is crucial for daily life due to the number of activities that depend on it. To forecast future electric load, which changes over time and depends on various factors, grid operators (GOs) must create forecasting models for various time horizons with a high degree of accuracy because the results have a huge impact on their decision-making regarding, for example, the scheduling of power units to supply user consumption in the short or long term or the installation of new power plants. This has led to the exploration of multiple techniques like statistical models and Artificial Intelligence (AI), with Machine-Learning and Deep-Learning algorithms being the most popular in this latter field. This paper proposes a neural network-based model to forecast short-term load for a Colombian grid operator, considering a seven-day time horizon and using an LSTM recurrent neural network with historical load values from a region in Colombia and calendar features such as holidays and the current month corresponding to the target week. Unlike other LSTM implementations found in the literature, in this work, the LSTM cells read multiple load measurements at once, and the additional information (holidays and current month) is concatenated to the output of the LSTM. The result is used to feed a fully connected neural network to obtain the desired forecast. Due to social problems in the country, the load data presents a strange behavior, which, in principle, affects the prediction capacity of the model. Still, it is eventually able to adjust its forecasts accordingly. The regression metric MAPE measures the model performance, with the best predicted week having an error of 1.65% and the worst week having an error of 26.22%. Additionally, prediction intervals are estimated using bootstrapping.

Experiences of Parenting a Child Receiving Dexamethasone During Maintenance Chemotherapy for Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia.

Background: The purpose of this research was to understand the experience of parenting a child receiving dexamethasone during maintenance chemotherapy for acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). Previous research has shown that dexamethasone's high level of toxicity causes many physical, behavioral, and emotional side effects, which reduce the quality of life during ALL treatment. Less is known about the experience of parenting a child receiving dexamethasone and the impact on the parent-child relationship. Methods: In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted with 12 parents and data was analyzed using Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis. Results: Four superordinate themes emerged: "a child on steroids is not your child": the behavioral and emotional changes in the child and their relationships; "you have to do what you have to do": adapting parenting to manage dexamethasone; "it breaks your heart … it's a horrible medicine": the emotional impact of parenting a child on dexamethasone; and, "it's the worst week ever": finding ways to cope with the challenges of dexamethasone. Discussion A preparatory intervention for parents beginning the dexamethasone journey focused on likely challenges, managing boundary setting and discipline, and their own emotional struggles, could be beneficial. Research into the impact on siblings could further understand the systemic influence of dexamethasone and help develop further interventions.

Optimization and life cycle analysis of solar-powered absorption chiller designed for a small house in the United Arab Emirates using evacuated tube technology

Due to the significant increase in the energy demand, mainly driven by air conditioning electrical loads in residential and industrial sectors of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), according to climate change and population increase. The use of solar cooling technology in air conditioning systems becomes crucial. In this paper, solar-powered absorption cooling system based on a LiBr–H2O was simulated and optimized for a house in UAE. The TRANSYS software was used for the simulations of the house under real-life conditions throughout the worst week scenarios. The Coefficient of performance (COP) of the proposed system was found to be 0.793. The optimization results showed that the latitude of the UAE is the optimum tilt angle for the evacuated tube, while the 40 m2 and 1 m3 are optimum for the area of the evacuated tube and the volume of a hot water storage tank at 0.73 solar fractions. Furthermore, the life cycle analysis results show that the solar-powered absorption cooling system would cost 43.2%, consume the energy of 8.5%, and produces a carbon footprint of 8.7% of the cost, energy consumption, and production of the carbon footprint of the typical vapor compression system, respectively.

Brain morphology, harm avoidance, and the severity of excessive internet use.

As the previous studies have mainly focused on the reward system and the corresponding brain regions, the relationship between brain morphology and excessive internet use (EIU) were not clear; the purpose of the study was to investigate if the brain regions other than the reward system were associated with EIU. Data were acquired from 131 excessive internet users. Psychological measures included internet use, life quality, personality, mental illness symptoms, impulsivity, and thought suppression. The brain was scanned with 3T magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and six types of brain morphological indexes were calculated. Lasso regression methods were used to select the predictors. Stepwise linear regression methods were used to build the models and verify the model. The variables remaining in the model were left precentral (curve), left superior temporal (surface area), right cuneus (folding index), right rostral anterior cingulate (folding index), and harm avoidance. The independent variable was the EIU score of the worst week in the past year. The study found that the brain morphological indexes other than the reward system, including the left precentral (curve), the left superior temporal (surface area), the right cuneus (folding index), and the right rostral anterior cingulate (folding index), can predict the severity of EIU, suggesting an extensive change in the brain. In this study, a whole‐brain data analysis was conducted and it was concluded that the changes in certain brain regions were more predictive than the reward system and psychological measures or more important for EIU.

Local and large-scale controls of the exceptional Venice floods of November 2019

On 12 November 2019, an exceptional flood event took place in Venice, second only to the one that occurred on 4 November 1966. Moreover, with four extremely high tides since 11 November 2019, this was the worst week for flooding in Venice since the beginning of sea level records (1872). The event that struck Venice and the northern Adriatic Sea on 12 November 2019, although having certain conditions seemingly typical of the events causing exceptional high waters, had some peculiar characteristics not observed before, which deserved an in-depth analysis. Several factors made this event exceptional: the in-phase timing between the peak of the storm surge and the astronomical tide; a deep low-pressure cyclone over the central-southern Tyrrhenian Sea that generated strong Sirocco (south-easterly) winds along the main axis of the Adriatic Sea, pushing waters to the north; a fast-moving local depression – and the associated wind perturbation – travelling in the north-westward direction over the Adriatic Sea along the Italian coast, generating a meteotsunami; very strong winds (28 m s−1 on average with 31 m s−1 gusts) over the Lagoon of Venice, which led to a rise in water levels and damages to the historic city; and an anomalously high monthly mean sea level in the Adriatic Sea, induced by a standing low-pressure and wind systems over the Mediterranean Sea, that was associated with large-scale low-frequency atmospheric dynamics. In this study, the large set of available observations and high-resolution numerical simulations have been used to quantify the contribution of the mentioned drivers to the peak of the flood event and to investigate the peculiar weather and sea conditions over the Mediterranean Sea during the Venice floods of November 2019.

The impact of COVID-19 pandemic shock on major Asian stock markets: evidence of decoupling effects

Introduction. Despite the start of the outbreak of the virus (COVID-19) was in December 2019, stock markets did not respond immediately as there was little information about the expected duration of the crisis and whether China would be able to contain it within a short period of time, and the risks entailing to the global economy due to the virus spread becoming pandemic that endanger the global health situation. As a result of the great uncertainty that prevailed among investors in the third week of February, stock markets around the world incurred trillions of US dollars in losses in a single week (ending February) seen as the worst week for financial markets since the 2008 global financial crisis. The initial purpose of this paper is to assess the reaction of major Asian stock markets to the early outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic and its spillover effects among these markets. Material and methods. To capture switching behavior of major Asian stock markets due to the early outbreak of COVID-19, the paper uses daily price indexes of Shanghai composite, Hong Kong, Nikkei 225, and Korea stock market, during the period from December 2, 2019 to March, 13,2020. Markov switching dynamic regression (MSDR) employed to assess the behavior of each market to the response of the other markets’ behavior. Results. Our finding indicate evidence of two states that distinguish the behavior of the stock markets during the early outbreak of the pandemic. In state 1, when the significance of the pandemic was not fully realized there was a strong link and influence between these markets, but in state 2, when the scale and size of the pandemic realized these markets displayed decoupling behavior. Results also indicate, Hong Kong and Nikkie stock markets were the epicenter in both states. The impact of the pandemic news on the behavior of these markets as indicated by the transition probabilities of state 2, varied from 3 days duration effect (Hong Kong) to 3month duration effect (Nikkei 225). Discussion and conclusions. The interactive association between these stock markets is important for investors as well as for policy-makers. Increasing departure of stock prices from their fundamental driver, that is the common economic bonds linking these markets, implies increasing risk for investors in these stock markets. The duration of the shock as indicated by the transition probabilities show that Hong Kong stock exchange was the most resilient in the group, while Nikkei was the most reactive to the pandemic shock.

The 68th Edinburgh International Film Festival.

Despite celebrating its 63rd birthday with a stupendously underwhelming Opening Night film (Sam Mendes' Away We Go ), the Edinburgh International Film Festival isn't ready for retirement yet. Allegedly a comedy, Away We Go is yet another shoe-gazing mope through the lives of a couple of middle-class, thirty-something slackers and the existential crisis they face as they try to get to grips with adulthood and figure out the best place to settle down and spawn. Directed on autopilot by Sam Mendes, Away We Go is the type of laid-back, unfunny, comedy mumbleathon normally made by earnest young indie directors and starring earnest, young indie actors with names like Zooey. Full of the kind of loveably eccentric kooks you'd cheerfully garrotte if they existed anywhere outside of smug, self-satisfied films like this, Away We Go is like being stuck at a dinner party full of Guardian columnists. And not the fun ones like Charlie Brooker. No, we're talking about the whiny, spoilt ones like Lucy Mangan. Hopefully at some point in the future, some genius will decide to programme Away We Go as one half of a double bill with Sam's recent laugh-fest Revolutionary Road . Far funnier was Justin Molotnikov's dark, little Scottish film Crying With Laughter . Equal parts black comedy and Cape Fear -style revenge thriller, Crying With Laughter charts the worst week in Edinburgh stand-up comic Joey Frisk's (Stephen McCole) life as a chance meeting with old school friend Frank (Malcolm Shields) leads to him being made homeless, framed for attempted murder, and involved in a kidnapping as old scores are settled and the guilty are punished. Scots actor Stephen McCole is fantastic as the put-upon comic and his performance is hilariously un-PC and subtly vulnerable with Shields a sympathetic, if relentless, villain and the final revelation, while …

Unusual rainfall shift during monsoon period of 2010 in Pakistan: Flash flooding in Northern Pakistan and riverine flooding in Southern Pakistan

Floods due to “blocking event” in the jet stream during 2010 caused intense rainfall and flash floods in northern Pakistan which resulted to riverine flooding in southern Pakistan. In the beginning of July 2010, changes in summer monsoon rainfall patterns caused the most severe flooding in Pakistan history. Process control charts suggest that monsoon pattern was not normal which made one-fifth of the country to be inundated. In this study, our main concern was to check the upward shifts (floods) in the rainfall pattern of all provinces of Pakistan. Results indicate that there was significant and sudden shift in the rainfall pattern of monsoon in 2010 which might be due to prolong “blocking event” in the jet stream. In late July, rainwater from the highlands entered major rivers which affected nearby areas of the Indus River. More than 250 mm of rain fell over a 36-h period in late July. Abeyant policies by the Pakistan Irrigation Department (PID) caused destruction in Jacobabad which was not a normal Indus waterway. The first week of August marked the worst week of extreme flooding in southern Pakistan. Flood simulation overylay technique showed the affected areas of the country in comparison with normal waterways by using vector and raster data images.

The art of listening: Bony lesion in a toddler

The art of listening: Bony lesion in a toddler

Observation of the solar particle events of October and November 2003 from CREDO and MPTB

Proton fluxes, linear energy transfer spectra, and single-event effects (SEEs) rates for the five solar particle events occurring during October 26 to November 6, 2003, are compared with previous events of the current solar maximum and with environment models. It is shown that this period includes the worst week for the current solar maximum and that this exceeds the October 1989 worst week in protons but not in ions. The SEE rates illustrate the importance of allowing for both proton and heavy ion contributions, the relative importance of which varies from event to event and with time during individual events.

Increased incidence of CYP2D6 gene duplication in patients with persistent mood disorders: ultrarapid metabolism of antidepressants as a cause of nonresponse. A pilot study.

Recent studies have revealed that genetic polymorphisms of cytochrome P(450) 2D6 (CYP2D6) are among the factors that determine the interindividual differences in the metabolism and response to antidepressants. We investigated the relationship between persistent mood disorders and the duplication of the CYP2D6 gene, which encodes an enzyme with increased activity. We screened the prevalence of the CYP2D6 genotypes in 108 patients with persistent mood disorders using long polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and the real-time PCR methods. Clinical correlates with the genotypes were also analyzed. Among the 108 patients, 81 had failed to respond to antidepressants shown to be metabolized by CYP2D6. Of those 81, 8 had a CYP2D6 gene duplication (9.9%, 95% confidence interval 3.4-16.4%) which was higher than the 0.8-1.0% incidence previously observed in healthy Nordic Caucasians. The worst week scores of the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale were higher in the patients with the duplication compared with those without the duplication ( P=0.026, student's t-test). These results suggest that the CYP2D6 gene duplication is a possible factor that influences the development of persistence in patients with mood disorders probably by ultrarapid drug metabolism.

Is There an Association Between Duration of Untreated Psychosis and 24-Month Clinical Outcome in a First-Admission Series?

The authors examined the duration of untreated psychosis, defined as the interval from first psychotic symptom to first psychiatric hospitalization, in a county-wide sample of first-admission inpatients who had received no previous antipsychotic medication. Differences between diagnostic groups in 24-month illness course and clinical outcomes as well as relationships between outcomes and duration of untreated psychosis were evaluated. The data were derived from subjects in the Suffolk County Psychosis Project who were diagnosed at 24-month follow-up according to DSM-IV as having schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder (N=155), bipolar disorder with psychotic features (N=119), or major depressive disorder with psychotic features (N=75). Duration of untreated psychosis was derived from the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-III-R, medical records, and information from significant others. Measures at 24-month follow-up included consensus ratings of illness course, Global Assessment of Functioning Scale scores for the worst week in the month before interview, and current affective and psychotic symptoms. The median duration of untreated psychosis was 98 days for schizophrenia, 9 days for psychotic bipolar disorder, and 22 days for psychotic depression. Duration of untreated psychosis was not significantly associated with 24-month illness course or clinical outcomes in any of the diagnostic subgroups. Although these findings require replication in other epidemiologically based first-admission samples, at face value they do not support the suggestion of a psychotoxic effect of prolonged exposure to untreated psychosis.

Single event upsets caused by solar energetic heavy ions

We calculate single event upset (SEU) rates due to protons, alphas, and heavier ions in two satellite systems for the major solar particle events of 1989-92, using a new and complete analysis of GOES proton data and high-energy heavy-ion fluences from the University of Chicago Cosmic Ray Telescope on IMP-8. These measurements cover the entire range of energies relevant to SEU studies and therefore overcome shortcomings of previous studies, which relied upon theoretical or semi-empirical estimates of high-energy heavy-ion spectra. We compare our results to the observed SEU rates in these events. The SEU rates in one device (AMD 93L422s on LEASATs) were overwhelmingly dominated by protons. However, even after taking into account uncertainties in the ground-test cross-section data, we find that at least /spl sim/45% of the SEUs in the other device (Fairchild 93L422s on TDRS-1) must have been caused by heavy ions. Our results demonstrate that both protons and heavy ions must be considered in order to make a reliable assessment of SEU vulnerabilities. Furthermore, the GOES/Chicago database of solar particle events provides a basis for making accurate solar particle SEU calculations and credible worst-case estimates. In particular, measurements of the historic solar particle events of October 1989 are used in worst week and worst day environment models in CREME96, a revision of NRL's Cosmic Ray Effects on MicroElectronics code.

Grading depression severity by symptom scores: Is it a valid method for subclassifying depressive disorders?

Recent diagnostic criteria such as the DSM-III-R and the 10th Revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) have proposed that depression should be subcategorized according to severity. Among 75 inpatients with Research Diagnostic Criteria (RDC) major depressive disorder, the total number of criterion B items (N = 8) used as the measure of severity was validated against the global assessment scale (GAS) score for the worst week of the episode; the correlation between the two was r = −.232. This suggests that even if the total number of identified diagnostic items reflects a different aspect of severity, there should be caution about its use unless validated by further study.

Depressive symptom patterns and urinary MHPG excretion

Twenty-four hour urinary excretion of 3-methoxy-4-hydroxyphenylglycol (MHPG) was analyzed in 48 unipolar and 19 bipolar depressed patients and 16 healthy controls. All patients were interviewed using the Schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia. Various symptoms and descriptive variables were correlated univariately with urinary MHPG in two random groups, and those items showing a trend in both splits were further reduced by a multiple regression technique, first on each split separately and finally on the pooled sample. Urinary MHPG correlated significantly both in uni- and multivariate test with age (positively, but only in females), altered motor activity (summed scores of agitation and retardation during the worst week of present or recent depression), and with existence of at least one suicide attempt before the present depressive episode (last items negatively). There were no differences between unipolar and bipolar patients, or between any patient group and the healthy controls. Males excreted about 25% more MHPG than females. Levels of MHPG in urine and cerebrospinal fluid were highly significantly intercorrelated.