World Health Organization Elimination Research Articles

Congenital Syphilis: A Re-Emerging but Preventable Infection.

Congenital syphilis presents a significant global burden, contributing to fetal loss, stillbirth, neonatal mortality, and congenital infection. Despite the target established in 2007 by the World Health Organization (WHO) of fewer than 50 cases per 100,000 live births, the global incidence is on the rise, particularly in low- and middle-income regions. Recent data indicate a rate of 473 cases per 100,000 live births, resulting in 661,000 total cases of congenital syphilis, including 355,000 adverse birth outcomes such as early fetal deaths, stillbirths, neonatal deaths, preterm or low-birth-weight births, and infants with clinical congenital syphilis. Alarmingly, only 6% of these adverse outcomes occurred in mothers who were enrolled, screened, and treated. Unlike many neonatal infections, congenital syphilis is preventable through effective antenatal screening and treatment of infected pregnant women. However, despite available screening tools, affordable treatment options, and the integration of prevention programs into antenatal care in various countries, congenital syphilis remains a pressing public health concern worldwide. This review aims to summarize the current epidemiology, transmission, and treatment of syphilis in pregnancy, as well as to explore global efforts to reduce vertical transmission and address the reasons for falling short of the WHO elimination target.

Hepatitis C screening in Lithuania: first-year results and scenarios for achieving WHO elimination targets.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has outlined a set of targets to achieve eliminating hepatitis C by 2030. In May 2022, Lithuanian health authorities initiated a hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening program to start working towards elimination. In the program, bonus was given to general practitioners (GPs) to promote and conduct anti-HCV tests for two situations: (1) one time testing for individuals born in 1945-1994 and (2) annual HCV testing for persons who inject drugs or are living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) regardless of age. This study aimed to model the current viral hepatitis C epidemiological status in Lithuania and to outline the requirements for WHO elimination targets using the first-year HCV screening results. Individuals were invited to participate in the anti-HCV screening by GPs during routine visits. Patients who tested positive were then referred to a gastroenterologist or infectious disease doctor for further confirmatory testing. If a patient received a positive RNA test and a fibrosis staging result of ≥ F2, the doctor prescribed direct-acting antivirals. Information on the patients screened, diagnosed, and treated was obtained from the National Health Insurance Fund. The Markov disease progression model, developed by the CDA Foundation, was used to evaluate the screening program results and HCV elimination progress in Lithuania. Between May 2022 and April 2023, 790,070 individuals underwent anti-HCV testing, with 11,943 individuals (1.5%) receiving positive results. Anti-HCV seroprevalence was found to be higher among males than females, 1.9% and 1.2%, respectively. Within the risk population tested, 2087 (31.1%) seropositive individuals were identified. When comparing the screening program results to WHO elimination targets through modelling, 2180 patients still need to be treated annually until 2030, along with expanding fibrosis restrictions. If an elimination approach was implemented, 1000 new infections would be prevented, while saving 150 lives and averting 90 decompensated cirrhosis cases and 110 hepatocellular carcinoma cases. During the first year of the Lithuanian screening program, GPs were able to screen 44% of the target population. However, the country will not meet elimination targets as it currently stands without increasing treatment levels and lifting fibrosis restrictions.

Global Perspectives on the Hepatitis B Vaccination: Challenges, Achievements, and the Road to Elimination by 2030.

Annually, more than 1.5 million preventable new hepatitis B (HBV) infections continue to occur, with an estimated global burden of 296 million individuals living with chronic hepatitis B infection. This substantial health challenge results in over 820,000 annual deaths being attributed to complications such as liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The HBV vaccination remains the cornerstone of public health policy to prevent chronic hepatitis B and its related complications. It serves as a crucial element in the global effort to eliminate HBV, as established by the World Health Organization (WHO), with an ambitious 90% vaccination target by 2030. However, reports on global birth dose coverage reveal substantial variability, with an overall coverage rate of only 46%. This comprehensive review thoroughly examines global trends in HBV vaccination coverage, investigating the profound impact of vaccination on HBV prevalence and its consequences across diverse populations, including both high-risk and general demographics. Additionally, the review addresses the essential formidable challenges and facilitating factors for achieving WHO's HBV vaccination coverage objectives and elimination strategies in the coming decade and beyond.

Improving the hepatitis C virus care cascade with the in-hospital Reflex tEsting ALarm-C (REAL-C) model.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has set targets to eliminate viral hepatitis, including hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, by 2030. We present the results of the in-hospital Reflex tEsting ALarm-C (REAL-C) model, which incorporates reflex HCV RNA testing and sending alerts to physicians. We conducted a retrospective study analysing the data of 1730 patients who newly tested positive for anti-HCV between March 2020 and June 2023. Three distinct periods were defined: pre-REAL-C (n = 696), incomplete REAL-C (n = 515) and complete REAL-C model periods (n = 519). The primary outcome measure was the HCV RNA testing rate throughout the study period. Additionally, we assessed the referral rate to the gastroenterology department, linkage time for diagnosis and treatment and the treatment rate. The rate of HCV RNA testing increased significantly from 51.0% (pre-REAL-C) to 95.6% (complete REAL-C). This improvement was consistent across clinical departments, regardless of patients' comorbidities. Among patients with confirmed HCV infection, the gastroenterology referral rate increased from 57.1% to 81.1% after the REAL-C model. The treatment rate among treatment-eligible patients was 92.4% during the study period. The mean interval from anti-HCV positivity to HCV RNA testing decreased from 45.1 to 1.9 days. The mean interval from the detection of anti-HCV positivity to direct-acting antiviral treatment also decreased from 89.5 to 49.5 days with the REAL-C model. The REAL-C model, featuring reflex testing and physician alerts, effectively increased HCV RNA testing rates and streamlined care cascades. Our model facilitated progress towards achieving WHO's elimination goals for HCV infection.

The Prevalence of Trachomatous Trichiasis in People Aged 15 Years and Over in Six Evaluation Units of Gaoual, Labé, Dalaba and Beyla Districts, Guinea

ABSTRACT Purpose Trachoma is a public health problem in 42 countries. Inflammation associated with repeated ocular infection with Chlamydia trachomatis can cause the eyelid to scar and turn inwards, resulting in the eyelashes rubbing against the eyeball, known as trachomatous trichiasis (TT). In Guinea, baseline surveys conducted in 2013 reported inflammatory trachoma prevalences below the World Health Organization (WHO) threshold for elimination, but TT prevalences above threshold. Given this epidemiological context and time since baseline survey, TT-only surveys were conducted in selected districts to determine current TT prevalence. The results of this study provide critical data for assessing Guinea’s achievement of trachoma elimination targets. Methods Four health districts, consisting of six evaluation units (EU), were surveyed. In each EU, field teams visited 29 clusters with a minimum 30 households included in each. Participants aged≥15 years were examined by certified graders trained to identify TT and determine whether management had been offered. Results A total of 22,476 people were examined, with 48 TT cases across the six EUs identified. Five of six EUs had an age-and-gender adjusted TT-prevalence unknown to the health system less than 0.2%, whereas one EU, Beyla 2, had an adjusted TT prevalence of 0.24%. Conclusion These TT-only surveys, along with findings from other trachoma interventions, suggest that Guinea is close to achieving elimination of trachoma as a public health problem. This study demonstrates the value of undertaking TT-only surveys in settings where baseline surveys indicated active trachoma prevalences below WHO elimination threshold, but TT prevalences above it.

Reaching the World Health Organization elimination targets for schistosomiasis: the importance of a One Health perspective.

The past three years has seen the launch of a new World Health Organization (WHO) neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) roadmap, together with revised control and elimination guidelines. Across all, there is now a clear emphasis on the need to incorporate a One Health approach, recognizing the critical links between human and animal health and the environment. Schistosomiasis, caused by Schistosoma spp. trematodes, is a NTD of global medical and veterinary importance, with over 220 million people and untold millions of livestock currently infected. Its burden remains extremely high in certain regions, particularly within sub-Saharan Africa, despite over two decades of mass preventive chemotherapy (mass drug administration), predominantly to school-aged children. In Africa, in contrast to Asia, any zoonotic component of schistosomiasis transmission and its implications for disease control has, until recently, been largely ignored. Here, we review recent epidemiological, clinical, molecular, and modelling work across both Asia and Africa. We outline the evolutionary history and transmission dynamics of Schistosoma species, and emphasize the emerging risk raised by both wildlife reservoirs and viable hybridization between human and animal schistosomes. To achieve the 2030 WHO roadmap elimination targets, a truly multi-disciplinary One Health perspective must be implemented. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.

Mortality and morbidity related to hepatitis C virus infection in hospitalized adults-A propensity score matched analysis.

The World Health Organization (WHO) aims to reduce HCV mortality, but estimates are difficult to obtain. We aimed to identify electronic health records of individuals with HCV infection, and assess mortality and morbidity. We applied electronic phenotyping strategies on routinely collected data from patients hospitalized at a tertiary referral hospital in Switzerland between 2009 and 2017. Individuals with HCV infection were identified using International Classification of Disease (ICD)-10 codes, prescribed medications and laboratory results (antibody, PCR, antigen or genotype test). Controls were selected using propensity score methods (matching by age, sex, intravenous drug use, alcohol abuse and HIV co-infection). Main outcomes were in-hospital mortality and attributable mortality (in HCV cases and study population). The non-matched dataset included records from 165,972 individuals (287,255 hospital stays). Electronic phenotyping identified 2285 stays with evidence of HCV infection (1677 individuals). Propensity score matching yielded 6855 stays (2285 with HCV, 4570 controls). In-hospital mortality was higher in HCV cases (RR 2.10, 95%CI 1.64 to 2.70). Among those infected, 52.5% of the deaths were attributable to HCV (95%CI 38.9 to 63.1). When cases were matched, the fraction of deaths attributable to HCV was 26.9% (HCV prevalence: 33%), whilst in the non-matched dataset, it was 0.92% (HCV prevalence: 0.8%). In this study, HCV infection was strongly associated with increased mortality. Our methodology may be used to monitor the efforts towards meeting the WHO elimination targets and underline the importance of electronic cohorts as a basis for national longitudinal surveillance.

Hepatitis C prevalence and elimination planning in Pakistan, a bottom-up approach accounting for provincial variation.

In Pakistan, substantial changes to hepatitis C virus (HCV) programming and treatment have occurred since the 2008 nationwide serosurvey estimated a 4.8% anti-HCV prevalence. In the absence of an updated national study, this analysis uses provincial data to estimate a national prevalence and the interventions needed to achieve elimination. Using a Delphi process, epidemiologic HCV data for the four provinces of Pakistan (accounting for 97% of the population) were reviewed with 21 subject-matter experts in Pakistan. Province-level estimates were inputted into a mathematical model to estimate the national HCV disease burden in the absence of intervention (Base), and if the World Health Organization (WHO) elimination targets are achieved by 2030 (80% reduction in new infections, 90% diagnosis coverage, 80% treatment coverage, and 65% reduction in mortality: WHO Elimination). An estimated 9,746,000 (7,573,000-10,006,000) Pakistanis were living with viraemic HCV as of January 1, 2021; a viraemic prevalence of 4.3% (3.3-4.4). WHO Elimination would require an annual average of 18.8million screens, 1.1million treatments, and 46,700 new infections prevented anually between 2022 and 2030. Elimination would reduce total infections by 7,045,000, save 152,000 lives and prevent 104,000 incident cases of hepatocellular carcinoma from 2015 to 2030. Blood surveys, programmatic data, and expert panel input uncovered more HCV infections and lower treatment numbers in the provinces than estimated using national extrapolations, demonstrating the benefits of a bottom-up approach. Screening and treatment must increase 20 times and 5 times, respectively, to curb the HCV epidemic in Pakistan and achieve elimination by 2030.

Current Challenges and Future Perspectives of Diagnosis of Hepatitis B Virus.

It is estimated that approximately 260 million people worldwide are infected with the hepatitis B virus (HBV), which is one of the leading causes of liver disease and liver cancer throughout the world. Compared with developed countries, low-income and middle-income countries have limited access to resources and advanced technologies that require highly specialized staff for HBV diagnosis. In spite of the heavy burden caused by hepatitis B virus, 90% of people are still undiagnosed. The World Health Organization (WHO) goal of eliminating hepatitis B by 2030 seems very difficult to achieve due to the existing diagnostic infrastructure in low-resource regions. The majority of diagnostic laboratories still use hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg)-based tests. WHO's elimination plan is at risk of derailment due to phases like the window period, immune control, and occult HBV infection (OBI) not being detected by standard tests. Here, in this article, we are focusing on various diagnostic platforms for the better diagnosis of HBV. The aim of the elimination of HBV can only be achieved by detecting all phases of HBV infection, which can be executed by a combined approach of using new marker assays along with advanced pretesting and testing methods.

Rubella virus IgM and IgG antibodies with avidity in pregnant women and outcomes at a tertiary facility in Ghana.

Congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) is a recognised cause of childhood deafness and blindness caused by the transplacental transmission of rubella virus during pregnancy. Women in the reproductive age group, and by extension their unborn babies may therefore be at increased risk. The prevalence of Rubella virus specific IgM and IgG antibodies, including IgG avidity, was determined in pregnant women attending the antenatal clinic at a Teaching Hospital in Ghana. One hundred and forty-five women in their second and third trimesters of pregnancy from the outpatient clinic were recruited over a period of 2 months after written informed consent was obtained. Study participants completed a questionnaire and venous blood drawn for IgM, IgG, and avidity testing using SERION ELISA (SERION® Immunologics, Würzburg, Germany). Babies of mothers with positive or indeterminate IgM and low avidity IgG antibodies were offered specialist cardiological, ophthalmological or hearing assessment during follow up. One hundred and twenty-eight (88.3%) had only IgG antibodies, 5 (3.4%) had IgM and IgG antibodies, while 12 (8.3%) had no antibodies. No patient had IgM antibodies alone. Ten women (6.9%) had indeterminate levels of IgM antibodies. Majority of the women had high avidity IgG antibodies, while 5 (3.4%) had low avidity antibodies. No patient had IgM with low avidity antibodies. There was no statistical association between socio-demographic factors and the presence of IgM, IgG (low or high avidity) antibodies. Of all the children followed, none had the clinical definition of CRS. Consistent with the World Health Organization elimination strategy for measles and rubella viruses, non-immune women in the reproductive age group should be vaccinated. The immunization programme should be expanded to include teenagers and adults. Though Congenital Rubella Syndrome was not detected, the risk still remains.

Feasibility of hepatitis B elimination in high-income countries with ongoing immigration.

Addressing HBV is vital to meeting the World Health Organization (WHO)'s viral hepatitis elimination goals, as 47% of viral hepatitis complications can be attributed to HBV. The objective of this study is to develop an agent-based model determining which integrated strategies involving vaccination, screening, and treatment would achieve the WHO's goals. We developed an agent-based model to characterize theHBV epidemic in a high-income country with ongoing immigration. The spread of HBV was simulated through sexual networks and perinatal transmission. Model parameters were estimated fromthe literature and calibrated against historical HBV data. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the uncertainty. We predict that under the current strategies, the incidence of acute hepatitis B, and HBV-attributable decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma would decrease by 64.5%, 9.4%, and 10.5% between 2015-2030, respectively. However, the incidence of chronic hepatitis B and liver-related deaths would increase by 26.6% and 1.0% between 2015-2030, respectively. Results were sensitive to the number of immigrants and HBV prevalence in immigrants. The results suggest that the current vaccination, screening, and treatment strategies will be inadequate to achieve WHO elimination goals. Even with extensive integrated scale-up in vaccination, screening, and treatment, the morbidity and mortality targets may not be reachable, highlighting the need for a re-evaluation of the global strategy for HBV, the importance of developing curative therapy for HBV, and of establishing tailored strategies to prevent long-term sequelae and improve health in immigrants. We have developed a model that reflects the dynamics of hepatitis B virus (HBV) transmission in a high-income country with ongoing immigration, which enabled us to forecast the epidemiology of HBV for policy-level decision making. Our analysis suggests that current vaccination, screening, and treatment strategies are inadequate to achieve the WHO goals of eliminating chronic hepatitis B. Even with extensive integrated scale-up in vaccination, screening, and treatment, the morbidity and mortality targets may not be reachable.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hepatitis B and C elimination: An EASL survey

Background & AimsThe World Health Organization (WHO) HBV and HCV elimination targets, set in 2016 and based on projections to 2030, were unable to consider the impact of intervening factors. To evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on viral hepatitis elimination programs, the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) conducted a survey in liver centers worldwide in 2021.MethodsA web-based questionnaire was distributed (May-July 2021) to all EASL members representing clinical units providing HBV and HCV hepatitis care. Results are expressed as absolute numbers and reduction rates for each care activity.ResultsData were collected from 32 European and 12 non-European clinical centers. Between January 2019 (pre-pandemic) and December 2020 (during the pandemic), chronic HBV consultations decreased by 32% and 26%, new referrals by 38% and 39%, HBV testing rates by 39% and 21% (for HBsAg detection) and 30% and 22% (for HBV DNA detection), and new HBV treatments by 20% and 44% (p = 0.328) in European and non-European centers, respectively. With regard to HCV during the same time frame, the overall reductions were 39% and 50% for consultations, 49% and 49% for new referrals, 11% and 38% for HCV RNA detection, and 51% and 54% for new HCV antiviral treatments for European and non-European Centers, respectively (p = 0.071).ConclusionsAll steps in the viral hepatitis care cascade have been hampered by the COVID-19 pandemic, with a comparable impact across different centers. These data reaffirm the pandemic’s major effect on global viral hepatitis elimination programs and suggest that actions to achieve the WHO 2030 targets should be reconsidered and revised to account for each country's progress relative to pre-pandemic values.Lay summaryThe EASL multinational survey conclusively shows that viral hepatitis elimination programs, expected to provide control of hepatitis B and hepatitis C worldwide by 2030, have been held back by the COVID-19 pandemic in clinical centers from several European and non-European countries, with a comparable impact across centers. Limitations in the cascade of care for both HBV and HCV were linked to limited access to screening, consultations, specific testing, and actual treatment. As restrictions for COVID-19 begin to lift, efforts to diagnose and provide treatment for viral hepatitis should remain high on the list of priorities for public health officials to maintain the WHO elimination efforts. Measures that have been put in place to control the COVID-19 pandemic could be transferred to increasing the diagnosis and linkage to care of people with hepatitis.

A pan-genotype hepatitis C virus viral vector vaccine generates T cells and neutralizing antibodies in mice.

A prophylactic vaccine targeting multiple HCV genotypes (gt) is urgently required to meet World Health Organization elimination targets. Neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) and CD4+ and CD8+ T cells are associated with spontaneous clearance of HCV, and each may contribute to protective immunity. However, current vaccine candidates generate either nAbs or T cells targeting genetically variable epitopes and have failed to show efficacy in human trials. We have previously shown that a simian adenovirus vector (ChAdOx1) encoding conserved sequences across gt1-6 (ChAd-Gt1-6), and separately gt-1a E2 protein with variable regions deleted (E2Δ123HMW ), generates pan-genotypic T cells and nAbs, respectively. We now aim to develop a vaccine to generate both viral-specific B- and T-cell responses concurrently. We show that vaccinating with ChAd-Gt1-6 and E2Δ123HMW sequentially in mice generates T-cell and antibody (Ab) responses comparable to either vaccine given alone. We encoded E2Δ123 in ChAdOx1 (ChAd-E2Δ123) and show that this, given with an E2Δ123HMW protein boost, induces greater CD81-E2 inhibitory and HCV-pseudoparticle nAb titers compared to the E2Δ123HMW prime boost. We developed bivalent viral vector vaccines (ChAdOx1 and modified vaccinia Ankara [MVA]) encoding both Gt1-6 and E2Δ123 immunogens (Gt1-6-E2Δ123) generating polyfunctional CD4+ and CD8+ T cells and nAb titers in prime/boost strategies. This approach generated nAb responses comparable to monovalent E2Δ123 ChAd/MVA vaccines and superior to three doses of recombinant E2Δ123HMW protein, while also generating high-magnitude T-cell responses. These data are an important step forward for the development of a pan-genotype HCV vaccine to elicit T cells and nAbs for future assessment in humans.

Translating From Egg- to Antigen-Based Indicators for Schistosoma mansoni Elimination Targets: A Bayesian Latent Class Analysis Study.

Schistosomiasis is a parasitic disease affecting over 240-million people. World Health Organization (WHO) targets for Schistosoma mansoni elimination are based on Kato-Katz egg counts, without translation to the widely used, urine-based, point-of-care circulating cathodic antigen diagnostic (POC-CCA). We aimed to standardize POC-CCA score interpretation and translate them to Kato-Katz-based standards, broadening diagnostic utility in progress towards elimination. A Bayesian latent-class model was fit to data from 210 school-aged-children over four timepoints pre- to six-months-post-treatment. We used 1) Kato-Katz and established POC-CCA scoring (Negative, Trace, +, ++ and +++), and 2) Kato-Katz and G-Scores (a new, alternative POC-CCA scoring (G1 to G10)). We established the functional relationship between Kato-Katz counts and POC-CCA scores, and the score-associated probability of true infection. This was combined with measures of sensitivity, specificity, and the area under the curve to determine the optimal POC-CCA scoring system and positivity threshold. A simulation parametrized with model estimates established antigen-based elimination targets. True infection was associated with POC-CCA scores of ≥ + or ≥G3. POC-CCA scores cannot predict Kato-Katz counts because low infection intensities saturate the POC-CCA cassettes. Post-treatment POC-CCA sensitivity/specificity fluctuations indicate a changing relationship between egg excretion and antigen levels (living worms). Elimination targets can be identified by the POC-CCA score distribution in a population. A population with ≤2% ++/+++, or ≤0.5% G7 and above, indicates achieving current WHO Kato-Katz-based elimination targets. Population-level POC-CCA scores can be used to access WHO elimination targets prior to treatment. Caution should be exercised on an individual level and following treatment, as POC-CCAs lack resolution to discern between WHO Kato-Katz-based moderate- and high-intensity-infection categories, with limited use in certain settings and evaluations.

Hepatitis C virus: A critical approach to who really needs treatment.

Introduction of effective drugs in the treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has prompted the World Health Organization to declare a global eradication target by 2030. Propositions have been made to screen the general population and treat all HCV carriers irrespective of the disease status. A year ago the new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 virus appeared causing a worldwide pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 disease. Huge financial resources were redirected, and the pandemic became the first priority in every country. In this review, we examined the feasibility of the World Health Organization elimination program and the actual natural course of HCV infection. We also identified and analyzed certain comorbidity factors that may aggravate the progress of HCV and some marginalized subpopulations with characteristics favoring HCV dissemination. Alcohol consumption, HIV coinfection and the presence of components of metabolic syndrome including obesity, hyperuricemia and overt diabetes were comorbidities mostly responsible for increased liver-related morbidity and mortality of HCV. We also examined the significance of special subpopulations like people who inject drugs and males having sex with males. Finally, we proposed a different micro-elimination screening and treatment program that can be implemented in all countries irrespective of income. We suggest that screening and treatment of HCV carriers should be limited only in these particular groups.

Can hepatitis C elimination targets be sustained among people who inject drugs post-2030?

In high-income countries, people who inject drugs (PWID) are a priority population for eliminating hepatitis C virus (HCV) by 2030. Despite evidence informing micro-elimination strategies, little is known regarding efforts needed to maintain elimination targets in populations with ongoing acquisition risks. This model-based study investigates post-elimination transmission dynamics of HCV and HIV among PWID under different scenarios where harm reduction interventions and HCV testing and treatment are scaled-down.We calibrated a dynamic compartmental model of concurrent HCV and HIV transmission among PWID in Montréal (Canada) to epidemiological data (2003-2018). We then simulated achieving the World Health Organization elimination targets by 2030. Finally, we assessed the impact of four post-elimination scenarios (2030-2050): 1) scaling-down testing, treatment, opioid agonist therapy (OAT), and needle and syringe programs (NSP) to pre-2020 levels; 2) only scaling-down testing and treatment; 3) suspending testing and treatment, while scaling down OAT and NSP to pre-2020 levels; 4) suspending testing and treatment and maintaining OAT and NSP coverage required for elimination.Scaling down interventions to pre-2020 levels (scenario 1) leads to a modest rebound in chronic HCV incidence from 2.4 to 3.6 per 100 person-years by 2050 (95% credible interval - CrI: 0.8-7.2). When only scaling down testing and treatment (scenario 2), chronic HCV incidence continues to decrease. In scenario 3 (suspending treatment and scaling down OAT and NSP), HCV incidence and mortality rapidly increase to 11.4 per 100 person-years (95%CrI: 7.4-15.5) and 3.2 per 1000 person-years (95%CrI: 2.4-4.0), respectively. HCV resurgence was mitigated in scenario 4 (maintaining OAT and NSP) as compared to scenario 3. All scenarios lead to decreases in the proportion of reinfections among incident cases and have little impact on HIV incidence and HIV-HCV coinfection prevalence.Despite ongoing transmission risks, HCV incidence rebounds slowly after 2030 under pre-2020 testing and treatment levels. This is heightened by maintaining high-coverage harm reduction interventions. Overall, sustaining elimination would require considerably less effort than achieving it.

Is elimination of HCV realistic by 2030: France.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has proposed a plan for the elimination of viral hepatitis with a goal of reducing new hepatitis infections by 30% and 90% in 2020 and 2030, and associated mortality by 10% and 65% respectively. Actions and targets to reach these goals include improving hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccination programs, the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HBV, improving the safety of blood products and injections, risk reduction policies and optimizing the diagnosis and treatment of hepatitis. The goal of eliminating hepatitis C virus (HCV) by 2030 is based on three main actions: increased screening, strengthening access to care and the prevention of infections and re-infections. But, can this goal be reached? The answer to this question is yes in some countries, perhaps in others and no in most countries. Success will be limited by a "diagnosis burn-out" with 5 times more new viral infections than diagnoses in 2016 and a "treatment burn-out" with cure rates that are 5 times lower than the number of new infections. Nevertheless, France, like 10 other countries, is on track to achieve the WHO elimination plan by 2030. In France, the prioritization of oral antivirals in 2013-2014 which was extended to high-risk populations in 2015 (HIV-infected patients) and 2016 (men who have sex with men, dialyzed or kidney transplant recipients), then in 2017 to universal treatment with full coverage by French national healthcare (10 to 15000 treatments per year) has resulted in half of the 120000 patients needed to be treated by 2022 have been treated. Renewed efforts should make it possible to reach the target announced by the French Minister of Health in May 2018 by 2025.

Progress towards hepatitis C virus elimination in high-income countries: An updated analysis.

Elimination of HCV by 2030, as defined by the World Health Organization (WHO), is attainable with the availability of highly efficacious therapies. This study reports progress made in the timing of HCV elimination in 45 high-income countries between 2017 and 2019. Disease progression models of HCV infection for each country were updated with latest data on chronic HCV prevalence, and annual diagnosis and treatment levels, assumed to remain constant in the future. Modelled outcomes were analysed to determine the year in which each country would meet the WHO 2030 elimination targets. Of the 45 countries studied, 11 (Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Iceland, Italy, Japan, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and United Kingdom) are on track to meet WHO's elimination targets by 2030; five (Austria, Malta, Netherlands, New Zealand, and South Korea) by 2040; and two (Saudi Arabia and Taiwan) by 2050. The remaining 27 countries are not expected to achieve elimination before 2050. Compared to progress in 2017, South Korea is no longer on track to eliminate HCV by 2030, three (Canada, Germany, and Sweden) are now on track, and most countries (30) saw no change. Assuming high-income countries will maintain current levels of diagnosis and treatment, only 24% are on track to eliminate HCV by 2030, and 60% are off track by at least 20years. If current levels of diagnosis and treatment continue falling, achieving WHO's 2030 targets will be more challenging. With less than ten years remaining, screening and treatment expansion is crucial to meet WHO's HCV elimination targets.

Translating from Egg- to Antigen-Based Indicators for <i>Schistosoma Mansoni</i> Elimination Targets: A Bayesian Latent Class Analysis Study

Background: Schistosomiasis is a parasitic disease infecting over 240-million people. World Health Organization (WHO) targets for Schistosoma mansoni elimination are based on faecal egg counts (FEC), without translation to the widely-used, urine-based, point-of-care circulating cathodic antigen diagnostic (POC-CCA). We aimed to standardise POC-CCA score interpretation and translate them to FEC-based standards, broadening diagnostic utility in progress towards elimination. Methods: A Bayesian latent-class model was fit to data from 210 school-aged-children over four timepoints pre- to six-months-post-treatment. We used 1) FEC and established POC-CCA scoring (Negative, Trace, +, ++ and +++), and 2) FEC and G-Scores (a new, alternative scoring (G1 to G10)). We established the relationship between FECs and POC-CCA scores, and the score-associated probability of true infection. A simulation parametrised with model estimates established antigen-based elimination targets. Findings: True infection was associated with POC-CCA scores of ≥ + or ≥G3. POC-CCA scores cannot predict FECs because low FECs saturate POC-CCA cassettes. Post-treatment POC-CCA sensitivity/specificity fluctuations indicate a changing relationship between egg excretion and antigen levels (living worms). Elimination targets can be identified by the POC-CCA score distribution in a population. A population with ≤2% ++ and above, or ≤1% G7 and above indicates achieving current FEC-based elimination targets. Interpretation: Population-level POC-CCA scores (either scoring method) can be used to access WHO elimination targets prior to treatment. Caution should be excersied on an individual level and following treatment as POC-CCAs lack resolution to discern between WHO FEC-based moderate- and high-intensity infection categories with limited use in certain settings and evaluations. Funding: This work was supported by the European Research Council (ERC) [ERC Starting Grant number SCHISTO_PERSIST_680088 to PHLL]; Wellcome Trust [grant number 204820/Z/16/Z to PHLL]; Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) [grant number EP/T003618/1 to JMP and PHLL and grant number EP/R01437X/1 to PI J. Cooper and PHLL, University of Glasgow ]; Medical Research Council [grant number MR/P025447/1 to PHLL] Declaration of Interest: None to declare. Ethical Approval: Ethical Approval was granted from the Vector Control Division Research Ethics Committee (VCDREC/062), Uganda National Council of Science and Technology (UNCST-HS 2193) and University of Glasgow Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences Research Ethics Committee (200160068).

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on human papillomavirus–based testing services to support cervical cancer screening

The World Health Organization elimination goal for cervical cancer relies on screening 70% of women at ages 35 and 45, preferentially through molecular HPV testing. The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has led to an unprecedented demand for molecular tests and platforms. Our objective was to gain insight into the impact of SARS-CoV-2 on the actual or anticipated shortage of tests, equipment, consumables, and staff required to deliver molecular HPV laboratory services and to consider the implications for the sustainability and development of cervical screening programs. A 19-item online questionnaire was created and made available online between December 2020 and February 2021. Five companies with clinically validated HPV and SARS-CoV-2 tests in their portfolios were invited to provide a statement on the volumes of molecular COVID-19 tests produced, relevant changes to manufacturing capacity, and their current and post-pandemic strategy for HPV tests. We received responses from 57 laboratories representing 30 countries and six continents. Among these, 74% reported experiencing a supply shortage, 54% reported a shortage of personnel, and 33% reported delays in ordering equipment. Three companies described expansion of manufacturing lines, investment in diagnostic infrastructure, and scale-up of manufacturing capacity. Two companies specifically referred to opportunities for the use of platforms for COVID-19 testing to support HPV testing in time. The demand for SARS-CoV-2 testing is competing with HPV testing, compounded by a shortage of staff. This represents a challenge for existing laboratory services and for settings keen to implement HPV-based screening. However, supply challenges may be addressed in time, given the significant investment in manufacturing capacity. In addition, innovation around molecular COVID-19 testing systems may result in solutions that address the shortage of rapid low-cost HPV testing systems for low-resource settings. Finally, because the demand for COVID-19 testing is likely to decrease, this may release both workforce and platform capacity for high-throughput HPV testing. The global health community should be alert to the opportunities around innovation and capacity if cervical cancer elimination goals are to be reached.