Worker-firm Matches Research Articles

Immigration and Worker-Firm Matching

Abstract Positive assortative matching increases both the wages of more productive workers and wage dispersion. We study the effect of immigration on positive assortative matching using French employer-employee data from 1995 to 2005. We find that increases in the share of immigrants, driven by historical networks across local labor markets, generated stronger positive assortative matching between workers and firms. We present evidence suggesting that this effect was associated to higher wages for more productive workers and that the findings are consistent with increased workers' screening by firms.

The Quality-Adjusted Cyclical Price of Labor

Typical measures of wages, such as average hourly earnings, fail to capture cyclicality in the effective cost of labor in the presence of (i) cyclical fluctuations in the quality of worker-firm matches, or (ii) wages being smoothed within employment matches. To address both concerns, we estimate cyclicality in labor’s user cost exploiting the longrun wage in a match to control for match quality. Using NLSY data for 1980 to 2019, we identify three channels by which hiring in a recession affects user cost: It lowers the new-hire wage; it lowers wages going forward in the match; but it also results in higher subsequent separations. All totaled, we find that labor’s user cost is highly procyclical, increasing by more than 4% for a 1 pp decline in the unemployment rate. For large recessions, like the Great Recession, that implies a decline in the price of labor of about 15%.

Nonlinear unemployment effects of the inflation tax

Long-run inflation has nonlinear and state-dependent effects on unemployment, output, and welfare. We show this using a standard monetary search model with two shocks – productivity and monetary – and frictions in both labor and goods markets. Inflation lowers the surplus from a worker–firm match, in turn making it more sensitive to both productivity shocks and further increases in inflation. We calibrate the model to match key aspects of the US labor market and monetary data. The calibrated model is consistent with a number of empirical correlations, which we document using panel data from the OECD: (1) there is a positive long-run relationship between anticipated inflation and unemployment; (2) there is also a positive correlation between anticipated inflation and unemployment volatility; (3) the long-run inflation-unemployment relationship is stronger when unemployment is higher. The key mechanism through which the model generates these results is the negative effect of inflation on measured output per worker, which is likewise consistent with cross-country data. Finally, we show that the welfare cost of inflation is nonlinear in the level of inflation and is amplified by the presence of aggregate uncertainty.

Heterogeneous workers, trade, and migration

We analyze the welfare effects of trade and migration, focusing on two-sided horizontal heterogeneity among workers and firms. Horizontal (skill-type) heterogeneity among workers generates monopsonistic labor markets as well as within-firm wage inequality and an endogenous quality of worker–firm matches. In a model combining horizontal worker heterogeneity with monopolistic competition on goods markets, trade liberalization causes firm exit which raises wage markdowns and worsens the average quality of worker–firm matches. It also increases the degree of income inequality. Yet, aggregate welfare is higher under free trade than under autarky. Integration of labor markets leads to two-way migration between symmetric countries. Liberalizing migration has an ambiguous effect on the quality of worker–firm matches and income inequality, but it leads to lower wage markdowns and lower goods prices and thus to higher welfare in both countries. Our model advocates opening up labor markets simultaneously with trade liberalization.

Twisting the demand curve: Digitalization and the older workforce

Software represents a major and fast-growing share of firms’ capital investment, impacting demand for labor and what workers do on their jobs. Using U.S. Census Bureau panel data that link firms and workers, this paper estimates the effect of firm software capital on the earnings of workers by age group. We extend the AKM framework to include job-spell fixed effects that account for potential correlation between the worker–firm match and employee age, as well as including time-varying firm effects that allow for a correlation between wage-enhancing productivity shocks and software investments. Within job-spell, capitalized software investment raises worker earnings. However, it does so at a rate that declines after the age of 50, to about zero beyond 65. Our data further show that software capital increases the earnings of high-wage workers relative to low-wage workers and earnings in high-wage firms relative to low-wage firms, thereby widening earnings inequality within and across firms.

Declining Worker Turnover: The Role of Short-Duration Employment Spells

Using the Quarterly Workforce Indicators database, we document that a significant amount of the decline in labor market turnover during the last two decades is accounted for by the decline in employment spells that last just one or two quarters. This phenomenon is pervasive: short-term employment spells have declined across industries, firm size categories, demographic groups, and geographic regions. Using a search-and-matching model in the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides tradition that incorporates noisy signals about the quality of a worker-firm match, we argue that improved screening by workers and firms can account for much of the decline in short-lived employment spells. (JEL E24, J23, J41, J63, M51)

Nonlinear Unemployment Effects of the Inflation Tax

<ns3:p>We argue that long-run inflation has nonlinear and state-dependent effects on unemployment, output, and welfare. Using panel data from the OECD, we document three correlations. First, there is a positive long-run relationship between anticipated inflation and unemployment. Second, there is also a positive correlation between anticipated inflation and unemployment volatility. Third, the long-run inflation-unemployment relationship is not only positive, but also stronger when unemployment is higher. We show that these correlations arise in a standard monetary search model with two shocks – productivity and monetary – and frictions in labor and goods markets. Inflation lowers the surplus from a worker-firm match, in turn making it sensitive to productivity shocks or to further increases in inflation. We calibrate the model to match the U.S. postwar labor market and monetary data, and show that it is consistent with observed cross-country correlations. The model implies that the welfare cost of inflation is nonlinear in the level of inflation and is amplified by the presence of aggregate shocks.</ns3:p>

Preference Signaling and Worker-Firm Matching: Evidence from Interview Auctions

We study whether there are improvements in worker-firm matching when employers and applicants can credibly signal their interest in a match. Using a detailed resume dataset of more than 400 applicants from one university over five years, we analyze a matching process in which firms fill some of their inter- view slots by invitation and the remainder are filled by an auction. Consistent with the predictions of a signaling model, we find the auction is valuable for less desirable firms trying to hire high desirability applicants. Second, we find evidence that is consistent with the auction benefiting overlooked applicants. Candidates who are less likely to be invited for an interview (e.g., non-U.S. citizens) are hired after having the opportunity to interview through the auction. Among hires, these candidates are more represented among auction winners than invited interviewees, and this difference is more pronounced at more desirable firms. Finally, counterfactual analysis shows the auction increases the number and quality of hires for less desirable firms, and total hires in the market.

How to Improve Worker-Firm Matching: Evidence from a Temporary Foreign Worker Market

This paper investigates the role of worker-firm matching algorithms in accounting for early job separation rates. For this purpose, we examine Korea’s temporary foreign worker program in which the government classifies firms by priority levels and matches them with foreign workers based on their stated preferences. Using administrative data, we examine predictors for the job separation rates and propose alternative matching methods using the serial dictatorship. Our simulation results show that alternative matching methods can substantially reduce job separation rates, suggesting a possible improvement of the Korean program.

Nonlinear Unemployment Effects of the Inflation Tax

We argue that long-run inflation has nonlinear and state-dependent e ects on unemployment, output, and welfare. Using panel data from the OECD, we document three correlations. First, there is a positive long-run relationship between anticipated inflation and unemployment. Second, there is also a positive correlation between anticipated inflation and unemployment volatility. Third, the long-run inflation-unemployment relationship is not only positive, but also stronger when unemployment is higher. We show that these correlations arise in a standard monetary search model with two shocks - productivity and monetary - and frictions in labor and goods markets. Inflation lowers the surplus from a worker-firm match, in turn making it sensitive to productivity shocks or to further increases in inflation. We calibrate the model to match the US postwar labor market and monetary data and show that it is consistent with observed cross-country correlations. The model implies that the welfare cost of inflation is nonlinear in the level of inflation and is amplified by the presence of aggregate shocks.

Jobs and Matches: Quits, Replacement Hiring, and Vacancy Chains and Vacancy Chains

In the canonical DMP model of job openings, all job openings stem from new job creation. Jobs denote worker-firm matches, which are destroyed following worker quits. Yet, employers classify 56 percent of vacancies as quit-driven replacement hiring into old jobs, which evidently outlived their previous matches. Accordingly, aggregate and firm-level hiring tightly track quits. We augment the DMP model with longer-lived jobs arising from sunk job creation costs and replacement hiring. Quits trigger vacancies, which beget vacancies through replacement hiring. This vacancy chain can raise total job openings and net employment. The procyclicality of quits can thereby amplify business cycles. (JEL E24, E32, J23, J31, J63)

Any Port in a Storm: Import Competition and Match Quality Downgrading

This paper provides clear evidence that increased exposure to import competition from low-income countries results in lower quality matches between workers and firms, using matched employer-employee data from Italy. I measure match quality as the match (worker-firm) fixed effect from a wage regression that includes a rich set of time-varying observables, as well as worker and firm fixed effects. In order to account for the potential endogeneity of industry-level imports, I use low-income countries' import share in a set of other high-income countries as an instrumental variable. Import shocks reduce match quality, shifting the entire distribution of match effects leftward. Additional analysis suggests that workers are more likely to leave high-quality matches because of import competition, implying that good worker-firm matches become relatively less valuable. This finding highlights a new channel through which workers can be negatively affected by trade shocks.

Immigration and Worker-Firm Matching

Immigration and Worker-Firm Matching

Immigration and Worker-Firm Matching

Immigration and Worker-Firm Matching

Twisting the Demand Curve: Digitalization and the Older Workforce

This paper uses U.S. Census Bureau panel data that link firm software investment to worker earnings. We regress the log of earnings of workers by age group on the software investment by their employing firm. To unpack the potential causal factors for differential software effects by age group we extend the AKM framework by including job-spell fixed effects that allow for a correlation between the worker-firm match and age and by including time-varying firm effects that allow for a correlation between wage-enhancing productivity shocks and software investments. Within job-spell, software capital raises earnings at a rate that declines post age 50 to about zero after age 65. By contrast, the effects of non-IT equipment investment on earnings increase for workers post age 50. The difference between the software and non-IT equipment effects suggests that our results are attributable to the technology rather than to age-related bargaining power. Our data further show that software capital increases the earnings of high-wage workers relative to low-wage workers and the earnings in high-wage firms relative to low-wage firms, and may thus widen earnings inequality within and across firms.

The Effect of the Hartz Labor Market Reforms on Post-Unemployment Wages, Sorting, and Matching

We use linked longitudinal data on employers and employees to estimate how the 2003-2005 Hartz reforms affected the wages of displaced German workers after they returned to work. We also present a simple new method to decompose the wage effects into components attributable to selection on unobservables, and to changes in the way that displaced workers are sorted across firms and worker-firm matches upon re-employment. We find that the Hartz reforms substantially reduced the wages of displaced workers after their return to work. Women experienced smaller wage losses than men. For both sexes, over 80 percent of the increased wage loss was because displaced workers found re-employment in lower-wage firms after the reforms. A disproportionate share of these low-wage firms offer temporary employment services to other firms, and we document a large increase in post-displacement employment in the temporary work sector after the reforms. Sorting into worse matches with employers explains a smaller 5-9 percent of the wage loss experienced by men, and 12.5-23 percent of the female wage loss. Collectively, the sorting and matching channels explain almost all of the Hartz reforms' effect on post-displacement wages.

The role of preferences, attitudes, and personality traits in labor market matching

We provide new evidence of worker–firm matching based on preferences, attitudes and personality traits using new, representative matched employer–employee data from Germany. Time-constant firm characteristics explain a significant proportion of total variance in a series of outcome variables commonly applied in behavioral economics research. Hence, behavioral characteristics play an important, yet under researched, role in the labor market matching process.

Intermediate good sourcing, wages and inequality: From theory to evidence

AbstractThis paper examines the consequences of offshoring and outsourcing on domestic wages and wage inequality. I highlight the role of labor market frictions in impacting firms’ outsourcing and offshoring decisions; specifically, how differential costs of matching with workers affect the location of production (onshore or offshore) and how differential costs of assessing worker quality affect the ownership of intermediate production (intra‐firm or inter‐firm). I demonstrate how firm sourcing decisions can depend crucially on the industry skill intensity, which reflects the importance of worker–firm match quality, and as a result, the effect of offshoring on domestic labor depends on occupation and industry characteristics, as well as the ownership regime of trade. Bringing the theory to the data I rely on plausibly exogenous variation in the cost of inter‐ and intra‐firm offshoring to identify the effects of a change in each type of offshoring on domestic wages. I find strong evidence that the effect of offshoring on domestic wages—both on the average and on the wage distribution—is governed by the type of offshoring (inter‐ vs. intra‐firm), the skill intensity of the industry, and the offshorability of the occupation.

Job-to-job transitions, sorting, and wage growth

In this paper we measure the relative contribution of firm effects and match quality to wage growth experienced by workers moving between jobs. We provide evidence that firm effects only explain a small share of the observed wage dynamics. We also show that standard assumptions on match quality used to estimate fixed-effect wage models are not well supported in Danish data. We propose an alternative strategy to estimate an additive model of wage changes that includes a freely-varying match effect for all but a subset of job changers. Using estimates from Danish linked worker-firm data, we find that 44% of the wage growth experienced by job-to-job movers is attributable to an improvement in the quality of the worker-firm match, and 66% of the variance of wage growth is explained by the variance of the change in match effects.

Strategy-proofness of worker-optimal matching with continuously transferable utility

We give a direct proof of one-sided strategy-proofness for worker–firm matching under continuously transferable utility. A new “Lone Wolf” Theorem (Jagadeesan et al., 2017) for settings with transferable utility allows us to adapt the method of proving one-sided strategy-proofness that is typically used in settings with discrete transfers.