Within-individual Effects Research Articles

Equity in hybrid microeconomics classes: Effects on diverse student groups

The Covid-19 pandemic created a sudden increased uptake of online teaching, and though the end of the pandemic signaled a shift back to more in-person learning, many schools have used the existing infrastructure to expand their offerings of online and hybrid courses. While previous studies have identified the impact of online teaching on student score, little work has been done on the heterogenous impact that online and hybrid teaching can have, particularly for underrepresented groups of students. I utilize a randomized control trial in an introductory microeconomics course to test whether there are any differences in quiz score with a lecture delivered online as compared to in-person, mimicking a hybrid class environment. I find that when students watch a lecture online, they score 5 percentage points lower on average than attending a lecture in-person. This estimate is based on an intent-to-treat study design and estimates within-individual effects. I also assess heterogeneous effects across various demographic variables, including gender, race, and First-Generation status, and find that this result is particularly salient for non-White and first-generation students, highlighting the equity implications of moving to online teaching.

Individual variation in breeding phenology and postnatal development in northern bats (Eptesicus nilssonii).

Bats inhabiting northern latitudes are faced with short reproductive seasons during which they must produce and rear pups before fattening up in time to survive the winter hibernation. Therefore, the timing of parturition has considerable impacts on future fitness prospects for the mother and pup. However, little is known about individual variation in breeding phenology and its consequences for postnatal development within bat populations. Here, we studied the phenology of breeding in Eptesicus nilssonii across 7 years using data collected by day-to-day monitoring of a breeding colony in Norway (60.1° N) for which the identity and age of each mother (N = 8) and pup (N = 28) were known. Using mixed-effect models, we found that arrival at the colony was influenced by temperature conditions from mid-April to mid-May across all females, but that there were strong and consistent individual differences in arrival- and parturition time across years. Females generally arrived ~32.1 days before giving birth, but the gestation duration was reduced if females arrived late and prolonged if females left the colony when faced with cold weather conditions. Pups born later in the season were born smaller but had higher growth rates during the most rapid growth period (<10 days old). The within-individual effects suggest that the higher growth rates could be due to mothers compensating (e.g. through increased food intake) for late parturition rather than by improved food availability. Date of parturition did not influence adult body size in pups. Pups became volant at the earliest only 13.1 days after birth and approached adult flight patterns during their first flight week. Our results suggest that E. nilssonii is highly adapted to a short breeding season by producing large, fast developing and early volant pups, despite the environmental pressures bats face at northern latitudes.

Changes in active commuting and changes in work ability and recovery from work in 16,778 Finnish public sector employees

BackgroundPromotion of active commuting by walking and cycling presents a feasible strategy to increase physical activity levels and improve employee health and wellbeing. Increasing evidence on the health benefits of active commuting exists, but little is known about longitudinal associations between active commuting and work ability, and recovery from work. MethodsWe conducted an observational cohort study of 16,778 public sector employees who responded to the Finnish Public Sector study surveys in 2020 and 2022. Within- and between-individual associations of changes in active commuting with changes in work ability and recovery from work were examined using hybrid modelling. Analyses were adjusted for sex and age at T1 (time-invariant confounders in the between-individual part of the analyses) and socio-economic factors, body mass index, health behaviours, and job strain (time-varying confounders in both parts). ResultsAfter adjustments, an increase in active commuting equivalent to 10 km per week was associated with small within-individual (unstandardized beta (B) = 0.016, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.004–0.028) and between-individual (B = 0.028, 95% CI 0.019–0.038) improvements in work ability. In sex-stratified analyses, the positive within-individual effect on work ability was observed only among women (B = 0.026, 95% CI 0.001–0.040). With recovery from work, only between-individual positive association was observed (B = 0.032, 95% CI = 0.018–0.045). ConclusionsIt may be possible to improve work ability by increasing active commuting. However, it appears that a change corresponding to tens of weekly kilometres of active commuting is required to achieve a small improvement in work ability. No conclusive evidence supporting that an increase in active commuting enhances recovery from work was found.

Mothers' depressive symptoms and children's behavioral adjustment: The role of negative parental emotional states.

The contribution of fathers and family dynamics to the deleterious effects of mothers' depressive symptoms on children's behavioral adjustment has been evaluated in this study. Using longitudinal data spanning from toddlerhood to grade school (N = 1,311), this study examined whether negative emotional states in both parents related to mothers' cumulative depressive symptoms during the early years of children were associated with children's later internalizing and externalizing problems in grade school. A random intercept cross-lagged panel model was used to segregate between- and within-individual effects. The results demonstrated that, independent of fathers' depressive symptoms, high levels of maternal cumulative depressive symptoms were positively associated with negative emotional states in both parents over time, which then independently mediated the longitudinal associations between mothers' depressive symptoms and children's subsequent behavioral maladjustment, particularly internalizing problems, at the between-individual trait level. The findings highlight the interdependence of family members from a longitudinal perspective and support the unique contributions of both parents' negative emotional states to better understand children's behavioral adjustment in the context of maternal depressive symptoms. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Exacerbating inequality over the life-course: examining race differences in the reciprocal effects between incarceration and income

Abstract Relative to Whites, Blacks face lower odds of gaining employment with notable wages while also facing longer terms of incarceration when sent to jail or prison for criminal offenses. Although a variety of factors contribute to these patterns, the time a Black individual spends incarcerated could decrease future earnings, whereas lower earnings could increase the time spent incarcerated. Nevertheless, prior research has yet to consider—or evaluate—the reciprocal association between income and incarceration, limiting our ability to discern how involvement in the criminal justice system contributes to the racial gap in income between Black and Whites. Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, the current study evaluated the influence of time spent incarcerated and income on future time spent incarcerated and income of Blacks and Whites. A lagged Latent Curve Model with Structured Residuals was estimated to examine the between- and within-individual reciprocal effects of months incarcerated and income. The findings suggested that a 1 month increase in time spent incarcerated for Blacks resulted in a 300–600 dollar decrease in income during the subsequent measurement period, an effect that was not observed for Whites. It appears that time spent incarcerated reduces future earnings for justice-involved Blacks. Overall, findings suggest that the criminal justice system contributes to the income gap that exists more generally between Blacks and Whites in the United States.

The Within-Individual Effects of U.S. Immigration on Individual-Level Offending During Adolescence and Early Adulthood

Objectives: Prior contextual-level studies suggest that individuals who reside in areas with higher concentrations of foreign-born residents engage in less crime and delinquency. Yet, this work has relied on either cross-sectional models or longitudinal data with only baseline measurements of immigration, which tells us little about whether temporal changes in immigrant concentration affect changes in individual-level offending. We addressed this shortcoming by conducting a contextual-level study that uses a within-individual research design. Methods: Using public and restricted data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 and U.S. Census data, we employed Bayesian random-effects models to examine the within-individual associations between the percentage of the population that is foreign-born in respondents’ county of residence and two indicators of criminal offending during adolescence and early adulthood. Results: Findings indicated that percent foreign-born was associated with subsequent reductions in criminal arrest but not self-reported offending. Moreover, we found that these effects were similar regardless of whether respondents moved or remained in place over time. Finally, for self-reported offending, the effects of percent foreign-born were stronger for first-generation immigrants, but for arrest, they were similar across generation. Conclusions: Immigrant concentration is a time-varying phenomenon that has the potential to reduce individual-level offending.

Within-Individual Effect of Perceived Informal Labeling on Delinquency: Moderation Processes in a South Korean Sample

Within-Individual Effect of Perceived Informal Labeling on Delinquency: Moderation Processes in a South Korean Sample

Effects of indoor and outdoor temperatures on blood pressure and central hemodynamics in a wintertime longitudinal study of Chinese adults.

We aimed to estimate the effects of indoor and outdoor temperature on wintertime blood pressure (BP) among peri-urban Beijing adults. We enrolled 1279 adults (ages: 40-89 years) and conducted measurements in two winter campaigns in 2018-2019 and 2019-2020. Study staff traveled to participant homes to administer a questionnaire and measure brachial and central BP. Indoor temperature was measured in the 5 min prior to BP measurement. Outdoor temperature was estimated from regional meteorological stations. We used multivariable mixed-effects regression models to estimate the within-individual and between-individual effects of indoor and outdoor temperatures on BP. Indoor and outdoor temperatures ranged from 0.0 to 28 °C and -14.3 to 6.4 °C, respectively. In adjusted models, a 1 °C increase in indoor temperature was associated with decreased SBP [-0.4 mmHg, 95% confidence interval (CI): -0.7 to -0.1 (between-individual; brachial and central BP); -0.5 mmHg, 95% CI: -0.8 to -0.2 (within-individual, brachial BP); -0.4 mmHg, 95% CI: -0.7 to -0.2 (within-individual, central BP)], DBP [-0.2 mmHg, 95% CI:-0.4 to -0.03 (between-individual); -0.3 mmHg, 95% CI: -0.5 to -0.04 (within-individual)], and within-individual pulse pressure [-0.2 mmHg, 95% CI: -0.4 to -0.04 (central); -0.3 mmHg, 95% CI: -0.4 to -0.1 (brachial)]. Between-individual SBP estimates were larger among participants with hypertension. There was no evidence of an effect of outdoor temperature on BP. Our results support previous findings of inverse associations between indoor temperature and BP but contrast with prior evidence of an inverse relationship with outdoor temperature. Wintertime home heating may be a population-wide intervention strategy for high BP and cardiovascular disease in China.

COVID-19 infection induces higher trust in strangers

How does the COVID-19 pandemic affect interpersonal trust? Most evidence shows that natural disasters reinforce trust and cooperation, but the COVID-19 virus differs from other calamities, since it spreads through contact with people, potentially increasing suspicion and distrust, as, according to contemporaneous writers' accounts, seems to have been the case with the Black Death, the London plague, and the Spanish influenza. We investigate the link between interpersonal trust and individuals exposed to COVID-19, either vicariously through their community or networks or directly by becoming infected. We rely on an original panel survey, including a survey experiment, with a representative sample of adults in Italy, one of the countries hardest struck by the pandemic. Our experimental findings reveal that priming people about the risk that the pandemic poses to their health leads to a substantial increase in their trust in strangers. Our panel data analysis of within-individual effects shows that those who become infected trust strangers more than those who are not infected. Our findings could be explained by people observing higher than expected altruistic behavior or becoming more dependent on other people's support, consistent with the "emancipation theory of trust." When people recover from COVID-19, however, they drop to trusting strangers as much as those who were not directly exposed to the virus, an indication that the positive effects on trust during the pandemic have an emotional source. Nonetheless, the evidence suggests that, in the aggregate, there has been a small but significant increase in trust among the general population relative to prepandemic levels.

Parameterizing Practice in a Longitudinal Measurement Burst Design to Dissociate Retest Effects From Developmental Change: Implications for Aging Neuroscience.

Background: In longitudinal designs, the extraneous influence of retest effects can confound and obscure estimates of developmental change. The current study provides a novel approach to independently parameterize short-term retest effects and long-term developmental change estimates by leveraging a measurement burst design and three-level multilevel modeling. We further employ these short- and long-term slopes as predictors of cognitive status at long-term follow-up assessments.Methods: Participants included 304 older adults from Project MIND: a longitudinal measurement burst study assessing cognitive performance across both biweekly sessions and annual retests. Participants were classified as either Healthy controls (HC) or Cognitively Impaired, not Demented (CIND) at baseline, the final burst assessment (Year 4), and at an additional four-year follow-up (Year 8). Response time inconsistencies (RTI) were computed at each burst occasion for a simple choice response time (CRT) task and a one-back response time (BRT) task. Three-level multilevel models were employed to simultaneously examine change in RTI for both CRT and BRT across weeks within years, as well as across years, in order to dissociate within-individual retest effects (short-term) from developmental (long-term) change slopes. Individual slopes were then extracted and utilized in a series of multinomial logistic regression equations to contrast short- vs. long-term RTI change as predictors of cognitive status.Results: Separately parameterizing short- and long-term change estimates yielded distinct patterns of variation. CRT RTI remained stable across short-term weekly assessments, while significantly increasing across years. In contrast, BRT RTI decreased significantly across short-term assessments but showed no change across long-term assessments. After dissociating change estimates, short-term BRT as well as long-term CRT and BRT estimates predicted cognitive status at long-term follow-ups; increases in RTI, suggesting either an inability to benefit from retest or process-based developmental decline, were associated with an increased likelihood of being classified as CIND.Conclusions: We showcase an innovative approach to dissociate retest effects from developmental change across and within individuals. Accurately parameterizing these distinct change estimates can both reduce systematic bias in longitudinal trend estimates as well as provide a clinically useful tool by utilizing retest effects to predict cognitive health and impairment.

Longitudinal associations of parental monitoring and delinquent peer affiliation: The potential influence of parental solicitation and monitoring rules.

Poor parental monitoring has been theorized as a key risk factor for an adolescent's association with deviant peers. However, measurements of parental monitoring often only measure parental knowledge rather than parental monitoring actions, leaving the true longitudinal associations between parental monitoring and peer delinquency unclear. The current sample consisted of 1095 male justice-involved adolescents (13-17 years old at baseline collected between 2011 and 2013) from across the United States who provided survey data every 6 months for 3 years. Longitudinal associations between parental monitoring constructs (i.e., parental solicitation and monitoring rules) and peer delinquency were tested using random intercept cross-lagged panel models to investigate both between-individual associations and within-individual bidirectional effects. Although parental monitoring and peer delinquency were negatively related at a between-individual level, very few within-individual directional effects were found. The few within-individual effects present indicated that parental solicitation predicted greater peer delinquency and peer delinquency predicted fewer parental monitoring rules over time. Current findings indicate that, while greater overall parental monitoring is associated with less peer delinquency, there is little evidence that changes in parental monitoring lead to reductions in peer delinquency over time. Results support previous findings suggesting parental monitoring should not be the sole target of intervention for reducing peer delinquency.

Does university make you more liberal? Estimating the within-individual effects of higher education on political values

An individual's level of education is increasingly significant in explaining their political attitudes and behaviour, with higher education proposed as a new political cleavage. However, there is limited evidence on the causal effect of university on political attitudes, due to self-selection into educational pathways. Addressing this gap, this article estimates the change in political values that occurs within individuals who graduate from university by applying longitudinal modelling techniques to data from the 1970 British Cohort Study, overcoming the selection problem by accounting for time-invariant confounding. It provides the first causal estimate of higher education specifically, finding that achieving a degree reduces authoritarianism and racial prejudice and increases economic right-wing attitudes. This has important implications for the study of politics: as populations become more highly educated on average, we should expect continuing aggregate value change towards lower levels of authoritarianism and racial prejudice, with significant consequences for political behaviour.

The within-individual lagged effects of time spent incarcerated on substance use: a nationally representative longitudinal study from the United States

ABSTRACT Background: The effects of incarceration on future substance use is well documented in the extant literature. Nevertheless, scholars have yet to examine the within-individual correspondence between the change in months incarcerated over time and the change in substance use over time. Aim: Considering this gap in the literature, the purpose of the current study is to evaluate whether within-individual changes in months incarcerated is associated with subsequent within-individual changes in substance use. Method: The current study examines the influence of the change in the number months incarcerated (2004–2009) on alcohol, cigarette, marijuana, and hard drug use (2005–2010) using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97). The within-individual effects were estimated using four lagged latent growth models. Result: The results demonstrated that within-individual change in the months spent incarcerated influenced the change in the likelihood of substance use over time. Within-individual increases in the number of months an individual spent incarcerated over time (2004–2009) was associated with within-individual decreases in the frequency of cigarette and marijuana use, but within-individual increases in the likelihood of hard drug use from 2005 to 2010. Conclusion: These findings suggest that contemporary treatment modalities might not be effective for individuals with a history of using hard drugs.

Examining the Within-Individual Effect of Delinquency on Psychosocial Maturity in Mid-adolescence

Examining the Within-Individual Effect of Delinquency on Psychosocial Maturity in Mid-adolescence

Maturing Out of Victimization: Extending the Theory of Psychosocial Maturation to Victimization

Adolescents are at a relatively high risk of victimization. Within criminology, victimization has been largely attributed to risky behaviors and low self-control. Yet, these factors explain only a modest amount of victimization, suggesting that other theoretical predictors may offer additional insight. One factor that may predict victimization, as well as decreasing victimization risk after adolescence, is psychosocial maturation. Using data from the longitudinal Pathways to Desistance study, this study tested the association between psychosocial maturation and victimization. The analytic sample for this study (1087 individuals; 5681 yearly observations) included participants under 18 years at study recruitment. On average, each participant contributed 6 years of data. The victimization measure captured different types of threats and assaults (including rape and gunshot). Results showed 978 (17.2%) observations during which participants reported victimization. On average, psychosocial maturation increased with age while victimization risk decreased. Crude and adjusted models of the between-individual effect showed that a one standard deviation increase in psychosocial maturation was associated with 39% and 20% lower odds of victimization, respectively. Crude and adjusted models of the within-individual effect showed that a one standard deviation increase in psychosocial maturation was associated with 22% and 17% lower odds of victimization, respectively. Psychosocial maturation appears to be a relevant predictor of victimization and aids in our understanding of victimization risk throughout adolescence and early adulthood.

Within-Individual Effects of Dropping out of School on Violent Victimization Among Serious Adolescent Offenders.

Despite a recent decrease in both school dropout and victimization rates, many harsh and exclusionary school policies continue to push school-aged adolescents out of school. This study combines two research areas-school dropout and violent victimization-by investigating if dropping out of school increases the chance of violent victimization. It is hypothesized that a change in the opportunity structure associated with risky lifestyles and routine activities accounts for the link between school dropout and violent victimization. Drawing on longitudinal panel data collected from a relatively homogenous sample of 1354 serious adolescent offenders who are predominantly minorities (75%) and males (86%) and fixed-effects models which enhance the causal validity of the findings by using the same individuals as their own counterfactuals over time, this study shows that dropping out of school leads to the perpetuation of violent victimization, primarily due to a change in the opportunity structure associated with risky lifestyles and routine activities. By uncovering the pathway between school dropout and victimization, this study contributes to the knowledge base on the impact of school dropouts, the source of violent victimization, and the causal mechanism underlying the link between dropping out of school and violent victimization-all of which are relatively understudied despite their significant implications for theory and policy.

The association between female reproductive performance and leukocyte telomere length in wild Soay sheep.

Telomere length (TL), typically measured across a sample of blood cells, has emerged as an exciting potential marker of physiological state and of the costs of investment in growth and reproduction within evolutionary ecology. While there is mounting evidence from studies of wild vertebrates that short TL predicts raised subsequent mortality risk, the relationship between reproductive investment and TL is less clear cut, and previous studies report both negative and positive associations. In this study, we examined the relationship between TL and different aspects of maternal reproductive performance in a free-living population of Soay sheep. We find evidence for shorter TL in females that bred, and thus paid any costs of gestation, compared to females that did not breed. However, we found no evidence for any association between TL and litter size. Furthermore, females that invested in gestation and lactation actually had longer TL than females who only invested in gestation because their offspring died shortly after birth. We used multivariate models to decompose these associations into among- and within-individual effects, and discovered that within-individual effects were driving both the negative association between TL and gestation, and the positive association between TL and lactation. This suggests that telomere dynamics may reflect recent physiologically costly investment or variation in physiological condition, depending on the aspect of reproduction being investigated. Our results highlight the physiological complexity of vertebrate reproduction, and the need to better understand how and why different aspects of physiological variation underpinning life histories impact blood cell TL.

Comparison of isotope ratio mass spectrometry and cavity ring-down spectroscopy procedures and precision of the doubly labeled water method in different physiological specimens.

This study determines if saliva collection procedures for the doubly labeled water (DLW) method, used for measuring total energy expenditure (TEE), are comparable to urine and plasma collection. Both the cavity ring-down spectroscopy (CRDS) and isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) analyses techniques are compared. Saliva specimens were collected from participants for the DLW method. The specimens were collected under different conditions: after consumption of tap water, after chewing gum, and during exposure to conditions of high and low relative humidity. The isotopes in saliva were compared with simultaneous plasma and urine collection. TEE calculated from saliva and analyzed using CRDS was compared to that of plasma analyzed using IRMS. The within-individual variances were not significantly different between the saliva specimens (0.4‰) and plasma (0.3‰). After the oral dose of DLW, the saliva specimens displayed a shorter equilibration time to urine. When participants consumed 500 mL of tap water, the enrichment of saliva specimens reached a new plateau value faster than urine. Saliva collection exposed to high ambient humidity conditions was slightly less enriched as compared to low-humidity conditions while urine enrichment was unaffected. In contrast, whereas the within-individual effects of gum chewing during saliva collection on 18 O were unaffected, the abundance of 2 H in saliva was slightly lower after chewing the gum. The within-individual difference between TEE calculated from saliva and that calculated from plasma analyzed using IRMS did not differ from zero, and the standard deviation was not different from that predicted by a propagation of error analysis based on analytical error alone. Our findings support using saliva specimens for the DLW method. The analysis of plasma and urine, however, requires reducing the memory effect resulting from contaminants. Also, it should be performed in a manner that minimizes exposure to air where specimens may be exposed to evaporation or contamination from water vapor during sampling.

Does song overlap signal aggressiveness? An experimental study with repeated measures in free-ranging great tits

Vocal communication is often used to signal willingness to escalate into a physical fight during territorial conflicts. In songbirds, starting to sing when an opponent already sings (song overlapping) has been suggested to signal aggressive intent (willingness to escalate). We used a multiyear data set to test whether song overlapping predicts aggressiveness in great tits, Parus major. Territorial males were subjected twice to a simulated territorial intrusion when their mate was in the egg-laying phase, and twice when she was incubating. Males were presented with a taxidermic mount and a noninteractive playback of a conspecific song near their nestbox. The experiment was conducted over 3 consecutive years, resulting in repeated measures for males that bred across multiple years. The estimated minimum approach distance to the intruder, a repeatable and heritable trait that predicts the likelihood of physical attack, was used as a measure of aggression. We determined the duration of song overlapping by the focal male relative to values expected by chance. Against expectations, we found that birds that overlapped were less (rather than more) aggressive. In addition, variance partitioning demonstrated that this link resulted from a within-individual effect: when birds became less aggressive from one observation to the next, they also overlapped more. There was no among-individual effect: individuals that were on average more aggressive did not, on average, overlap either more or less than others. Our results thus imply that song overlapping is linked to aggression but opposite to expectations, and not among individuals. Furthermore, the majority of birds overlapped at or below chance levels. Overall, song overlapping may not signal aggressive intent but rather ‘nonengagement’, or result from interference avoidance, allowing aggressive residents to better hear an intruder's acoustic output during territorial intrusions.

Early-life seasonal, weather and social effects on telomere length in a wild mammal.

Early-life environmental conditions can provide a source of individual variation in life-history strategies and senescence patterns. Conditions experienced in early life can be quantified by measuring telomere length, which can act as a biomarker of survival probability in some species. Here, we investigate whether seasonal changes, weather conditions and group size are associated with early-life and/or early-adulthood telomere length in a wild population of European badgers (Meles meles). We found substantial intra-annual changes in telomere length during the first 3years of life, where within-individual effects showed shorter telomere lengths in the winter following the first spring and a trend for longer telomere lengths in the second spring compared to the first winter. In terms of weather conditions, cubs born in warmer, wetter springs with low rainfall variability had longer early-life (3-12months old) telomeres. Additionally, cubs born in groups with more cubs had marginally longer early-life telomeres, providing no evidence of resource constraint from cub competition. We also found that the positive association between early-life telomere length and cub survival probability remained when social and weather variables were included. Finally, after sexual maturity, in early adulthood (i.e., 12-36months) we found no significant association between same-sex adult group size and telomere length (i.e., no effect of intrasexual competition). Overall, we show that controlling for seasonal effects, which are linked to food availability, is important in telomere length analyses, and that variation in telomere length in badgers reflects early-life conditions and also predicts first year cub survival.