Winters Exponential Smoothing Research Articles

Forecasting of Indian and foreign tourist arrivals to Himachal Pradesh using Decomposition, Box–Jenkins, and Holt–Winters exponential smoothing methods

Forecasting of Indian and foreign tourist arrivals to Himachal Pradesh using Decomposition, Box–Jenkins, and Holt–Winters exponential smoothing methods

Comparison Of Single Moving Average And Winter Exponential Smoothing Methods In Predicting The Number Of Divorce Cases At The Religious Court Of Cibinong

Based on data from the Central Bureau of Statistics, the divorce rate in Indonesia shows a tendency to increase from year to year. Similar conditions were experienced by Cibinong district. The forecasting method that will be used in this study is the Single Moving Average and Winter's Exponential Smoothing. The results of forecasting the number of lawsuits in 2023 from July to December with movements with two obtained forecasts in July were 602, August 283, MAD value = 67.29, MSE value = 8.722, MAPE = 11.61, RMSE = 1.46, Accuracy value of 88.39%. Movements with four forecasting periods in July were 620, August 448, September 301, October 141. MAD value = 99.33, MSE value = 14,722, MAPE = 16.59, RMSE = 1.90, Accuracy value of 83.41%. Forecasting with the Winters Exponential Smoothing Method with Alpha: 0.1, Beta: 0.3 and Gamma: 0.5, the forecast results obtained in July were 504.10026, August 491.61306, September 663.18788, October 745.41004, November 732.42766 and December 732.10904. MAE value is 171.65116, MSE value is 686.63361, MAD value is 38.74, MSE value is 2.797 MAPE value is 6.0 and RMSE value is 0.83 and accuracy value is 94.00%. Based on the calculation results above, it is concluded that forecasting the number of divorce filings at Cibinong Religious Court from January 2018 to December 2023 with the Winter Exponential Smoothing method has MAD, MSE, MAPE, RMSE values smaller than values in the Single Moving Average method. Winter Exponential Smoothing method is more appropriate with an accuracy value of 94.00%.

On Integrating Time-Series Modeling with Long Short-Term Memory and Bayesian Optimization: A Comparative Analysis for Photovoltaic Power Forecasting

The means of energy generation are rapidly progressing as production shifts from a centralized model to a fully decentralized one that relies on renewable energy sources. Energy generation is intermittent and difficult to control owing to the high variability in the weather parameters. Consequently, accurate forecasting has gained increased significance in ensuring a balance between energy supply and demand with maximum efficiency and sustainability. Despite numerous studies on this issue, large sample datasets and measurements of meteorological variables at plant sites are generally required to obtain a higher prediction accuracy. In practical applications, we often encounter the problem of insufficient sample data, which makes it challenging to accurately forecast energy production with limited data. The Holt–Winters exponential smoothing method is a statistical tool that is frequently employed to forecast periodic series, owing to its low demand for training data and high forecasting accuracy. However, this model has limitations, particularly when handling time-series analysis for long-horizon predictions. To overcome this shortcoming, this study proposes an integrated approach that combines the Holt–Winters exponential smoothing method with long short-term memory and Bayesian optimization to handle long-range dependencies. For illustrative purposes, this new method is applied to forecast rooftop photovoltaic production in a real-world case study, where it is assumed that measurements of meteorological variables (such as solar irradiance and temperature) at the plant site are not available. Through our analysis, we found that by utilizing these methods in combination, we can develop more accurate and reliable forecasting models that can inform decision-making and resource management in this field.

Application of Exponential Smoothing Method for Forecasting Spare Parts Inventory at Heavy Equipment Distributor Company

PT. Kobexindo Tractors Tbk holds a significant spare parts inventory to meet their customers' needs. Over the period from 2016 to 2023, the company experienced an average annual loss of Rp. 1,176,438,113, due to the inadequate analysis of spare parts demand, which serves as a reference in the procurement process. To address this issue, this research focuses on developing a model that can generate accurate forecasts for spare parts inventory, particularly Jungheinrich parts, to support appropriate management decisions in the procurement process at the company. The Exponential Smoothing method is chosen for its ability to handle data with fluctuating patterns and trends. This study will compare the Simple Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing, and Triple Exponential Smoothing methods. The data ratio used in this research is 70% for training data and 30% for testing data. The prototype development is conducted using the Python programming language. The research results indicate that the Holts Winter Exponential Smoothing Model with Multiplicative Seasonality and Multiplicative Trend (Triple Exponential) is the best method among others, as follows: 1) Train RSME (7.082307), a low RSME value on training data indicates that this model has a small prediction error rate on the data used for training. 2) Test MAPE (6.343268), a low MAPE value on test data indicates that this model provides fairly accurate predictions in percentage terms of the actual values. 3) Test RSME Values (23.160521), a sufficiently low RSME value on test data indicates that this model also successfully generalizes well on unseen data.

Msf, a forecasting library to predict short-term electricity demand based on multiple seasonal time series

Transmission system operators have a growing need for more accurate forecasting of electricity demand. Current electricity systems largely require demand forecasting so that the electricity market establishes electricity prices as well as the programming of production units. The companies that are part of the electrical system use exclusive software to obtain predictions, based on the use of time series and prediction tools, whether statistical or artificial intelligence. However, the most common form of prediction is based on hybrid models that use both technologies. In any case, it is software with a complicated structure, with a large number of associated variables and that requires a high computational load to make predictions. On many occasions, the resources to reach these predictions are not available to researchers. In this paper we present a MATLAB® toolbox created to predict electrical demand. The toolbox implements multiple seasonal time series forecasting methods such as new generalized multiple seasonal Holt–Winters exponential smoothing models and neural network models, among others. The models presented include novel discrete interval mobile seasonalities (DIMS) to improve forecasting on special days. The paper also describes the computational analysis conducted to apply the toolbox in various electrical systems in Europe, where the results obtained can be seen. The use of this library opens a new way of research for the use of models with discrete and complex seasonalities in other fields of application.

Forecasting Stock Prices Using Time-Series Analysis, Regression Learning, and Deep Learning Models

For an extended period, scholars have been crafting a dependable and precise forecasting model for predicting stock prices. Predictive models may meticulously and accurately anticipate future stock prices if they are properly created and improved, according to the literature. This paper presents a number of learning-based, econometric, and time series models for predicting stock prices. Here, the data from WIPRO, SBI, and APOLLO PHARMA from January 2000 to December 2021 was utilized to train and test the models in order to determine that algorithms worked in what industry. This study includes two Regression models (Random Forest and MARS), two deep learning-based models (basic RNN and LSTM), one econometric model (ARIMA), and one-time series model (Holt- Winters Exponential Smoothing). It has been demonstrated that LSTM is the best deep learning model and that MARS is the greatest machine learning model. But overall, MARS has shown to be the greatest-performing model in sales forecasting for all sectors: Information technology (using values from WIPRO), Finance (using values from SBI), and Health (using data from APOLLO PHARMA). Keywords— Time Series Analysis, Forecast stock price, Recurrent Neural Networks, LSTM, Random Forest, MARS.

FORECASTING THE NUMBER OF AIRPLANE PASSENGERS USING HOLT WINTER'S EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD AND EXTREME LEARNING MACHINE METHOD

Airplanes provide comfort and speed for their users, especially for those who have limited time. The number of passengers has continued to increase in the last few months at Ahmad Yani International Airport, so a forecast is needed in making decisions to predict the number of passengers in order to maximize existing performance. The data used is secondary data on the number of airplane passengers at Ahmad Yani International Airport from 2012 to 2022 obtained from PT Angkasa Pura 1 (Persero). The Holt Winters Exponential Smoothing method is used because it aligns with the data pattern that includes trends and seasonality in the research, and it has a low level of accuracy. In this study also used the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) method, apart from being a relatively new method, it has a fast learning speed and has low accuracy. This study aims to predict the number of airplane passengers at Ahmad Yani International Airport in Semarang using the Holt Winters Exponential Smoothing and ELM methods. The results of the analysis show that the MAPE value in the Holt Winters Exponential Smoothing method is 8,18% and in the ELM method using 12 input neurons and 43 neurons in the hidden layer, a MAPE of 6,04% is obtained. so that the ELM method is the right method for predicting the number of airplane passengers at Ahmad Yani International Airport in Semarang.

WINTERS EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING UNTUK FORECASTING HARGA SAHAM PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK

Investing in the stock market is one of the investment options that are in great demand by investors. Investors generally invest because want to gain profits which can be seen from the stock returns. On the other hand, there is a risk of loss if the investor makes the wrong decision. Investors need accurate information, predictions and a sense of security in stock transactions. Investors or shareholders need to know the development of stock prices in the future with forecasts to anticipate large losses. This study aims to predict the share price of PT. Astra International Tbk (ASII.JK) one year ahead using the winters exponential smoothing method. Forecasting results show that ASII's share price for the next year will increase every month. This can provide information on future stock movements for investors as a consideration for investing in these stocks.

Deep learning-based air pollution analysis on carbon monoxide in Taiwan

Global air pollution poses a threat to humanity. Specifically, CO directly affects cardiovascular and other organ tissues and leads to numerous chronic diseases and major public health problems. The effective implementation of a deep learning model for predicting variations in CO levels would enable the early formulation of policies for controlling air pollution. In this study, a seasonal gated recurrent unit (SGRU) model, which is a deep learning time-series prediction model, was developed to predict the levels of CO in Taiwan. Atmospheric CO measurements from 2005 to 2021 were collected from the Environmental Protection Administration of Taiwan and preprocessed using the Kalman filter to achieve accurate forecasting. The performance of the proposed SGRU model was compared with that of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), seasonal ARIMA, exponential smoothing (ETS), Holt–Winters ETS, support vector regression, and seasonal long short-term memory models in terms of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error. The SGRU model achieved the lowest MAPE value of 0.94, which demonstrated its superior performance. The construction of an accurate air pollution prediction model can assist government entities in formulating health and social care strategies and in planning future air pollution control measures.

Application of Holt-Winter Exponential Smoothing Method to Design a Drug Inventory Prediction Application in Private Health Units

This research aims to see how to design a drug supply prediction application using the Holt-Winter Exponential Smoothing method. The collection methods used in the research are as follows: observation, interviews. The prototyping system development method includes several important stages in designing research applications. The first stage is communication. After that, the Quick Plan stage. Construction of prototype stages. The final stage, deployment delivery and feedback, is the phase of system use by users. In addition, the team also conducts regular system maintenance to ensure optimal performance. These stages together form an iterative process for developing research applications using the prototyping method. Based on the research results, it was found that the test results for the drugs amoxicillin, cefixime, paracetamol, and CTM showed that the MAPE value was less than 10% for these four drugs, which means that the predictive value has quite high accuracy. So it can be concluded that the Holt Winter Exponential Smoothing algorithm can be well implemented to predict drug supplies.

Forecasting with Triple Exponential Smoothing on Data of the Number of Passengers Departing Domestic Flights at Sultan Hasanuddin International Airport

Transportation facilities and means have developed very rapidly and become the basic needs of the community from time to time. This development ultimately requires the availability of capable and adequate transportation facilities and infrastructure in the form of the availability of good facilities. In general, the movement of the number of flight passengers at Sultan Hasanudin Airport tends not to be stationary on average because in certain times the movement forms an uptrend pattern. In addition, the number of flight passengers at Sultan Hasanudin Airport has an irregular pattern with varying increases and decreases. To forecast fluctuations in the number of flight passengers at Sultan Hasanudin Airport in the coming period, it can be done by time series analysis. The Triple Exponential Smoothing method or commonly referred to as Winter Exponential Smoothing is one of the Time Series methods that is suitable for handling seasonal data such as the number of domestic passengers at Sultan Hasanuddin Airport Makassar. The analysis step of the Triple Exponential Smoothing method is model identification, parameter estimation by trial and error, then is the calculation of the initial value of data smoothing, trends, and seasonality with a length of one season L = 12 and the last is to calculate the error value using MAPE and RMSE. The best model is obtained from a combination of parameters α = 0.9; β = 0,1; and γ=0.1 which results in the smallest forecasting error using RMSE with a value of 56,674.56 and MAPE with a value of 56,674.56. Using a forecasting model:
 So the forecasting results are obtained that look close and not too far from the previous year's data so that it can be used as a reference for the management of the aircraft company to make the right decisions and anticipate a surge in the number of passengers.

Time Series and Machine Learning Hybrid Models for Food Condiment Demand Forecasting: A Case Study in Thailand

Food industry is one of the most important industries in Thailand. The case-study company is a condiment manufacturer that needs to efficiently manage and plan for their business. One of the most important issues is demand forecasting. The company should precisely forecast their product demands, which will be used for operation planning. This study proposes forecasting models for both short-term and long-term planning for the company’s main condiment products. The proposed models are time series, machine learning and hybrid forecasting models which will be compared with pure time series and machine learning methods. Unlike previous work, this study proposes an innovative hybrid model, i.e., Holt- Winters exponential smoothing and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving average hybrid with Artificial neural network, which has never been considered previously. The accuracy is measured by mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) where the results are also compared to the method currently used in the company. The results show hybrid forecasting model provides the lowest overall error for both short-term and long-term forecast. The most accurate model from this paper can provide MAPE of 2.07% from short-term forecast and MAPE of 2.20% for long-term forecast (6 months in advance). When comparing with the company’s existing MAPE of 20.05%, the proposed model can increase forecast accuracy effectively.

시계열모형을 활용한 춘천시 강촌역 단기수송수요 예측

Purpose - This study attempted to predict short-term transportation demand using trains and getting off at Gangchon Station. Through this, we present numerical data necessary for future tourist inflow policies in the Gangchon area of Chuncheon and present related implications.
 Design/methodology/approach - This study collected and analyzed transportation demand data from Gangchon Station using the Gyeongchun Line and ITX-Cheongchun Train from January 2014 to August 2023. Winters exponential smoothing model and ARIMA model were used to reflect the trend and seasonality of the raw data.
 Findings - First, transportation demand using trains to get off at Gangchon Station in Chuncheon City is expected to show a continuous increase from 2020 until the forecast period is 2024. Second, the number of passengers getting off at Gangchon Station was found to be highest in May and October.
 Research implications or Originality - As transportation networks are improving nationwide and people's leisure culture is changing, the number of tourists visiting the Gangchon area in Chuncheon City is continuously decreasing. Therefore, in this study, a time series model was used to predict short-term transportation demand alighting at Gangchon Station. In order to calculate more accurate forecasts, we compared models to find an appropriate model and presented forecasts.

Modelling Risk for Commodities in Brazil: An Application for Live Cattle Spot and Futures Prices

This study analyses a series of live cattle spot and futures prices from the Boi Gordo Index (BGI) in Brazil. The objective is to develop a model that best portrays this commodity’s behaviour to estimate futures prices more accurately. The database created contains 2010 daily entries in which trade in futures contracts occurs, as well as BGI spot sales in the market, from 1 December 2006 to 30 April 2015. One of the most important reasons why this type of risk needs to be measured is to set loss limits. To identify patterns in price behaviour in order to improve future transaction results, investors must analyse fluctuations in asset values for longer periods. Bibliographic research reveals that no other study has conducted a comprehensive analysis of this commodity using this approach. Cattle ranching is big business in Brazil given that in 2021, this sector moved BRL 913.14 billion (USD 169.29 billion). In that year, agribusiness contributed 26.6% of Brazil’s total gross domestic product. Using the proposed risk modelling technique, economic agents can make the best decision about which options within these investors’ reach produce more effective risk management. The methodology is based on Holt–Winters exponential smoothing algorithm, autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA), ARIMA with exogenous inputs, generalised autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic and generalised autoregressive moving-average (GARMA) models. More specifically, five different methods are applied that allow a comparison of 12 different models as ways to portray and predict the BGI commodity behaviours. The results show that GARMA with order c(2,1) and without intercept is the best model. Investors equipped with such precise modelling insights stand at an advantageous position in the market, promoting informed investment decisions and optimising returns.

Leveraging Classical Statistical Methods for Sustainable Maintenance in Automotive Assembly Equipment

Predictive maintenance management plays a crucial role in ensuring the reliable operation of equipment in industry. While continuous monitoring technology is available today, equipment without sensors limits continuous equipment state data recording. Predictive maintenance has been effectively carried out using artificial intelligence algorithms for datasets with sufficient data. However, replicating these results with limited data is challenging. This work proposes the use of time series models to implement predictive maintenance in the equipment of an automotive assembly company with few records available. For this purpose, three models are explored—Holt–Winters Exponential Smoothing (HWES), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA)—to determine the most accurate forecasting of future equipment downtime and advocate the use of SAP PM for effective maintenance process management. The data were obtained from five equipment families from January 2020 to December 2022, representing 36 registers for each piece of equipment. After data fitting and forecasting, the results indicate that the SARIMA model best fits seasonal characteristics, and the forecasting offers valuable information to help in decision-making to avoid equipment downtime, despite having the highest error. The results were less favorable when handling datasets with random components, requiring model recalibration for short-term forecasting.

ANALISIS PERAMALAN PERMINTAAN KARTON BOX UD BERKAH JAYA OFFSET MENGGUNAKAN METODE TIME SERIES

UD Berkah Jaya Offset is one of the manufacturing companies operating in the field of cardboard box production. The company offers a variety of cardboard box products in various sizes, including sizes D1, D2, D3, trepes, and roll. In the production of cardboard boxes, particularly size D1, issues such as overstock and even stock shortages have been frequently encountered during the period from January 2022 to December 2023. This is due to the ineffective demand forecasting to anticipate these possibilities. This study aims to forecast the demand for size D1 cardboard boxes for the upcoming months using the best forecasting method. The methods employed are decomposition method, Winter's exponential smoothing, and Holt's exponential smoothing. This research compares the three methods based on the smallest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. The results of the study reveal that the decomposition method is the most effective, with a MAPE value of 19, MAD value of 28000, and MSD value of 1247419480, indicating a low level of forecasting error compared to the others.

Non-volatile resistive switching behavior and time series analysis of Ag/PVA-graphene oxide/Ag device

Non-volatile memory devices have been getting significant attention from researchers worldwide in recent years due to their application in resistive random access memory and neuromorphic computing. Here, we have fabricated polyvinyl alcohol-graphene oxide (PVA-GO) composite as an active material for the resistive switching with different concentrations of GO (0.0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, and 0.5 wt. % GO solution) dispersed in 5 wt. % PVA matrix in a 2:1 volume ratio. We demonstrate the non-volatile forming free resistive switching properties of Ag/PVA-GO/Ag devices. Structural properties of PVA-GO composites are established from the x-ray diffraction pattern, which indicates the complete dispersion of GO inside the PVA matrix. The Ag/PVA-GO-0.1 wt. %/Ag device shows better bipolar resistive switching at VSET ∼ 0.4 V and VRESET at ∼−0.8 V. This device indicates well-resolved two distinct states at a read voltage of 0.1 V in endurance and retention measurements. The fabricated device switches successfully tested for 2.5 × 103 cycles and retains its state for 3.36 × 103 s without any observable degradation. Furthermore, the non-volatile retention property was modeled using time series analysis. For this, Holt–Winter's exponential smoothing technique was utilized. Additionally, the charge–flux linkage characteristic shows the double-valued function, and time domain–charge and time domain–flux show asymmetric behaviors. The electrical conduction mechanism exhibits ohmic behavior in the entire region of the low resistance state and the lower voltage region of the high resistance state. In the high-voltage region of the high resistance state, the space charge-limited conduction mechanism is observed. The resistive switching behavior is explained with the help of an appropriate model.

Comparison of the accuracy of seasonal data prediction values using SARIMA and winter exponential smoothing on the number of ship passengers in Batam City

Sea transportation is one of the keys to the success of the tourism industry in a region. One of the problems faced in sea transportation is the increase in the number of passengers that is not balanced with the number of ships available. An accurate prediction model is very important in forecasting the number of passengers of a ship in order to prepare the number of ships according to the number of passengers. This study aims to compare the accuracy of prediction models on the number of ship passengers in Batam City whose data is fluctuating and contains seasonal patterns. In this study, secondary data was used in the form of the number of ship passengers in Batam City from January 2014 to December 2022. The methods used are SARIMA and Winter Exponential Smoothing. The results of this study show that the selected SARIMA model in forecasting the number of passengers in Batam City is SARIMA is SARIMA (0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 with an MSD value of 0.0000021. In contrast, the selected Winter Exponential Smoothing model is Winter Exponential Smoothing at alpha = 0.9, beta = 0.1, and delta = 0.1 with an MSD value of 0.00000. Based on these two models, the most accurate prediction model with the lowest MSD value in forecasting the number of ship passengers in Batam City is the Winter Exponential Smoothing model with values alpha = 0.9, beta = 0.1, and delta = 0.1.

Perbandingan Fuzzy Time Series Lee untuk Meramalkan Nilai Tukar Petani di Provinsi Gorontalo

Gorontalo Province is one of the provinces in Indonesia where 60% of the population are farmers and fishermen. As much as 28,66% of PDRB in Gorontalo Province in 2020 was contributed by the agricultural sector. Farmer's Exchange Rate is a measurement capability of agricultural products in producing goods or services. Therefore, NTP forecasting is needed so that it becomes a reference in the future in making a decision to increase the agricultural sector. In this study, a comparison was made of the Holt Winters Exponential Smoothing method with Lee's Fuzzy Time Series to find out which is the best forecasting method for predicting NTP in Gorontalo Province. Based on the forecasting results, the accuracy value obtained from FTS Lee has a mape value of 0,65557% for FTS Lee order 1 and 0,55607%. While the accuracy value obtained by the multiplicative Holt Winters Exponential Smoothing is 5.92509% and the additive Holt Winters Exponential Smoothing is 6,14574%. From the forecasting results obtained, it can be concluded that the best method for predicting NTP in Gorontalo Province is the FTS Lee Order 2 method.

PERAMALAN JUMLAH PENUMPANG KERETA API DI PULAU JAWA MENGGUNAKAN METODE HOLT WINTERS EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAN FUZZY TIME SERIES MARKOV CHAIN

One of the public transportation choices by the public is the train. The number of train passengers on the island of Java often increases and decreases in certain months. PT.KAI can monitor the number of train passengers by forecasting. Forecasting aims to predict the number of train passengers so that PT.KAI is ready to provide the best service. This study uses monthly data on the number of train passengers on Java Island from January 2015 to February 2020. This study uses multiplicative holt winters exponential smoothing and fuzzy time series markov chain. The multiplicative Holt Winters exponential smoothing method is used on data that contains trend and seasonal elements that experience data fluctuations simultaneously. The fuzzy time series markov chain method is a combination of the fuzzy time series with the markov chain which aims to obtain the greatest probability using the transition probability matrix. Based on the analysis results, it can be concluded that the multiplicative holt winters exponential smoothing method is better at predicting the number of train passengers on Java Island because the value of sMAPE multiplicative holt winters exponential smoothing is smaller, it is 3,0643% and the sMAPE fuzzy time series markov chain value is 5,2955%.