Winter Sea Ice Extent Research Articles

Cyclones modulate the control of the North Atlantic Oscillation on transports into the Barents Sea

The warm Atlantic Water transported into the Barents Sea plays a crucial role in winter sea ice extent, marine ecosystems, and mid-latitude weather. The North Atlantic Oscillation is known to be an important driver for the Atlantic Water transport variability in the Barents Sea Opening. Here, we find that the dependence of the Barents Sea Opening ocean volume transport variability on the North Atlantic Oscillation is non-stationary. Our results indicate that for the period 1995 to 2005, the link between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the transport variability in the Barents Sea Opening temporarily weakened before an eventual recovery. During this period, synoptic cyclones with unusual trajectories as a consequence of pronounced atmospheric blocking in the North Atlantic sector altered the large-scale and local wind patterns. This temporarily caused a state that the Barents Sea Opening transport variability is largely locally driven instead of being driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our study suggests that an adequate representation of both the North Atlantic Oscillation and cyclone activity is necessary for climate models to better predict future changes in poleward ocean heat transport and Arctic climate.

Upper ocean warming and sea ice reduction in the East Greenland Current from 2003 to 2019

The sea ice extent and sea ice thickness in the Arctic Ocean have declined consistently in the last decades. The loss of sea ice as well as warmer inflowing Atlantic Water have major consequences for the Arctic Ocean heat content and the watermasses flowing out from the Arctic. Sustained observations from ocean moorings show that the upper ocean temperature across the Arctic outflow with the East Greenland Current in the Fram Strait has increased significantly between 2003 and 2019. Polar Water contains more heat in summer due to lower sea ice concentration and longer periods of open water upstream. Warm returning Atlantic Water has a greater presence in the central Fram Strait in winter since 2015, impacting winter sea ice thickness and extent. Combined, these processes result in a reduced sea ice cover downstream along the whole east coast of Greenland with inevitable consequences for winter-time ocean convection and ecosystem functioning.

Optimized sea ice simulation in MITgcm-ECCO2 forced by ERA5

Coupled ice–ocean models require an accurate performance of sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics to realistically simulate sea ice circulation in the polar regions. However, atmospheric surface variables from reanalysis products that force the models differ in spatial and temporal resolutions, and there are also substantial inconsistencies in the distributions and magnitudes of these variables between the products. Therefore, several key parameters in the models need to be adjusted for the models forced by different atmospheric reanalysis products. This study compares the sea ice properties simulated by the previously optimized MITgcm-ECCO2 model forced by JRA25 and forced by the recently released ERA5. The comparisons with high-resolution satellite sea ice data reveal that the simulations forced by these two datasets significantly overestimate the Arctic sea ice concentration in summer, whereas the simulation forced by ERA5 underestimates the winter Antarctic sea ice. It is likely that the downward longwave radiation and wind stress regime in ERA5 is responsible for the underestimated Antarctic sea ice cover. We then optimize MITgcm-ECCO2 model forced by ERA5 by using Green functions. We consider six key parameters: sea ice strength, ice-atmospheric drag coefficient, ice–ocean drag coefficient, ice and snow albedos, and sea ice salinity. The optimized simulation significantly improves the sea ice distribution in both regions using a more realistic set of sea ice parameters. The most significant improvement is in the Antarctic, where winter sea ice extent misfit decreases by 48%. The optimized simulation reveals that ERA5 reproduces a closer representation of the Arctic sea ice extent and thickness than JRA25. In the southern hemisphere, ERA5 simulates the sea ice drift better, whereas the JRA25 have the closest match to the sea ice extent. Despite the improvements, further work is necessary for the Antarctic, where the lack of reliable observational data and limitations of the ocean model hinders the optimization.

Interannual Variations of Sea-ice Extent in the Okhotsk Sea – A Pan-Okhotsk Climate System Perspective

ABSTRACT This study investigated interannual variations in the late winter (January–March) sea-ice extent in the Okhotsk Sea (OS) and its relationship with the atmospheric circulation from 1971 to 2018. During heavy sea-ice years, negative air temperature anomalies are broadly discernable between the northeastern part of Eurasia and the North Pacific including the coastal polynyas adjacent to the northern and western coast of the OS. Cold air mass (CAM) genesis indicates the importance of the insulation effect of sea-ice in the persistent cold air temperatures in the OS. Light sea-ice years are marked by anomalous southeasterly winds and the resultant warm air advection associated with increases in extratropical cyclones. Southeasterly anomalies are associated with the weakening of the Aleutian low. Upper-tropospheric anticyclones dominating around the OS are closely connected with intensified convection in the vicinity of the South China Sea through propagation of a stationary Rossby wave relevant to La Niña-like warm sea surface temperature anomalies. The seasonal evolution of the CAM amount, sea ice in the Sea of Okhotsk, and the Aleutian low suggest that there may be chain feedback between them.

Characterizing coastal phytoplankton seasonal succession patterns on the West Antarctic Peninsula

AbstractIn coastal West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) waters, large phytoplankton blooms in late austral spring fuel a highly productive marine ecosystem. However, WAP atmospheric and oceanic temperatures are rising, winter sea ice extent and duration are decreasing, and summer phytoplankton biomass in the northern WAP has decreased and shifted toward smaller cells. To better understand these relationships, an Imaging FlowCytobot was used to characterize seasonal (spring to autumn) phytoplankton community composition and cell size during a low (2017–2018) and high (2018–2019) chlorophyll a year in relation to physical drivers (e.g., sea ice and meteoric water) at Palmer Station, Antarctica. A shorter sea ice season with early rapid retreat resulted in low phytoplankton biomass with a low proportion of diatoms (2017–2018), while a longer sea ice season with late protracted retreat resulted in the opposite (2018–2019). Despite these differences, phytoplankton seasonal succession was similar in both years: (1) a large‐celled centric diatom bloom during spring sea ice retreat; (2) a peak summer phase comprised of mixotrophic cryptophytes with increases in light and postbloom organic matter; and (3) a late summer phase comprised of small (< 20 μm) diatoms and mixed flagellates with increases in wind‐driven nutrient resuspension. In addition, cell diameter decreased from November to April with increases in meteoric water in both years. The tight coupling between sea ice, meltwater, and phytoplankton species composition suggests that continued warming in the WAP will affect phytoplankton seasonal dynamics, and subsequently seasonal food web dynamics.

Mechanisms of Regional Arctic Sea Ice Predictability in Two Dynamical Seasonal Forecast Systems

Abstract Research over the past decade has demonstrated that dynamical forecast systems can skillfully predict pan-Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) on the seasonal time scale; however, there have been fewer assessments of prediction skill on user-relevant spatial scales. In this work, we evaluate regional Arctic SIE predictions made with the Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) and Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research (SPEAR_MED) dynamical seasonal forecast systems developed at the NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Compared to FLOR, we find that the recently developed SPEAR_MED system displays improved skill in predicting regional detrended SIE anomalies, partially owing to improvements in sea ice concentration (SIC) and thickness (SIT) initial conditions. In both systems, winter SIE is skillfully predicted up to 11 months in advance, whereas summer minimum SIE predictions are limited by the Arctic spring predictability barrier, with typical skill horizons of roughly 4 months. We construct a parsimonious set of simple statistical prediction models to investigate the mechanisms of sea ice predictability in these systems. Three distinct predictability regimes are identified: a summer regime dominated by SIE and SIT anomaly persistence; a winter regime dominated by SIE and upper-ocean heat content (uOHC) anomaly persistence; and a combined regime in the Chukchi Sea, characterized by a trade-off between uOHC-based and SIT-based predictability that occurs as the sea ice edge position evolves seasonally. The combination of regional SIE, SIT, and uOHC predictors is able to reproduce the SIE skill of the dynamical models in nearly all regions, suggesting that these statistical predictors provide a stringent skill benchmark for assessing seasonal sea ice prediction systems.

Reconstructing Antarctic winter sea-ice extent during Marine Isotope Stage 5e

Abstract. Environmental conditions during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e (130–116 ka) represent an important “process analogue” for understanding the climatic responses to present and future anthropogenic warming. The response of Antarctic sea ice to global warming is particularly uncertain due to the short length of the observational record. Reconstructing Antarctic winter sea-ice extent during MIS 5e therefore provides insights into the temporal and spatial patterns of sea-ice change under a warmer-than-present climate. This study presents new MIS 5e records from nine marine sediment cores located south of the Antarctic Polar Front between 55 and 70∘ S. Winter sea-ice extent and sea-surface temperatures are reconstructed using marine diatom assemblages and a modern analogue technique transfer function, and changes in these environmental variables between the three Southern Ocean sectors are investigated. The Atlantic and East Indian sector records show much more variable MIS 5e winter sea-ice extent and sea-surface temperatures than the Pacific sector records. High variability in the Atlantic sector winter sea-ice extent is attributed to high glacial meltwater flux in the Weddell Sea, indicated by increased abundances of the diatom species Eucampia antarctica and Fragilariopsis cylindrus. The high variability in the East Indian sector winter sea-ice extent is conversely believed to result from large latitudinal migrations of the flow bands of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, inferred from latitudinal shifts in the sea-surface temperature isotherms. Overall, these findings suggest that Pacific sector winter sea ice displays a low sensitivity to warmer climates. The different variability and sensitivity of Antarctic winter sea-ice extent in the three Southern Ocean sectors during MIS 5e may have significant implications for the Southern Hemisphere climatic system under future warming.

How does the Southern Ocean palaeoenvironment during Marine Isotope Stage 5e compare to the modern?

Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e (130–116 ka) represents an important ‘process analogue’ for understanding the climatic feedbacks and responses likely active under future anthropogenic warming. Reconstructing the Southern Ocean (SO) palaeoenvironment during MIS 5e and comparing it to the present day provides insights into the different responses of the SO sectors to a warmer climate. This study presents new records from seven marine sediment cores for MIS 5e together with their surface sediment records; all cores are located south of 55 oS. We investigate changes in diatom species assemblage and the accompanying variations in sea surface temperatures, winter sea-ice extent (WSIE) and glacial meltwater flux. All records show warmer conditions and a reduced WSIE during MIS 5e relative to the surface sediments. While the Pacific and Indian Sector records present very stable conditions throughout MIS 5e, the Atlantic Sector records display much more changeable conditions, particularly with respect to the WSIE. These variable conditions are attributed to higher iceberg and glacial meltwater flux in the Weddell Sea. This evidence for increased iceberg and glacial meltwater flux in the Weddell Sea during MIS 5e may have significant implications for understanding the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, both during MIS 5e and under future warming.

Response of Northern North Atlantic and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to Reduced and Enhanced Wind Stress Forcing

AbstractSurface wind stress strongly influences Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability on interannual time scales. On longer time scales, however, its role in AMOC variations is less clear. Here, we show a nonlinear AMOC response to globally reduced and enhanced wind stress forcing, based on sensitivity experiments with MPI‐ESM1.2. Under reduced wind stress forcing, the AMOC strength strongly decreases. In contrast, under enhanced wind stress forcing the AMOC strength increases only in the first decades and then decreases, stabilizing at a value similar to the reference simulation. To reveal possible mechanisms underlying this response, we assess the response of the northern North Atlantic circulation and climate to the changed wind stress forcing. Initially, the response is linear: reduced wind stress forcing weakens the gyre circulation and the associated heat and salt transport, leading to larger winter sea ice extent and a shutdown of subpolar deep convection. In the Nordic Seas, the fresher and lighter subsurface state leads to a decrease in the baroclinic pressure and the overflow strength. Under enhanced wind stress forcing, initially, the opposite is happening. However, eventually, subpolar surface density anomalies are determined by warmer temperature rather than increased salinity, leading to a decrease in surface density and a weakening of subpolar deep convection. The resulting AMOC weakening reduces the Atlantic inflow salinity, and subsequently the Nordic Seas baroclinic pressure and overflow strength. The quasi‐equilibrium response of the northern North Atlantic circulation and climate under enhanced wind stress forcing differs from the reference simulation, even though the AMOC strength converges.

Seasonal Prediction and Predictability of Regional Antarctic Sea Ice

AbstractCompared to the Arctic, seasonal predictions of Antarctic sea ice have received relatively little attention. In this work, we utilize three coupled dynamical prediction systems developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to assess the seasonal prediction skill and predictability of Antarctic sea ice. These systems, based on the FLOR, SPEAR_LO, and SPEAR_MED dynamical models, differ in their coupled model components, initialization techniques, atmospheric resolution, and model biases. Using suites of retrospective initialized seasonal predictions spanning 1992–2018, we investigate the role of these factors in determining Antarctic sea ice prediction skill and examine the mechanisms of regional sea ice predictability. We find that each system is capable of skillfully predicting regional Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) with skill that exceeds a persistence forecast. Winter SIE is skillfully predicted 11 months in advance in the Weddell, Amundsen/Bellingshausen, Indian, and west Pacific sectors, whereas winter skill is notably lower in the Ross sector. Zonally advected upper-ocean heat content anomalies are found to provide the crucial source of prediction skill for the winter sea ice edge position. The recently developed SPEAR systems are more skillful than FLOR for summer sea ice predictions, owing to improvements in sea ice concentration and sea ice thickness initialization. Summer Weddell SIE is skillfully predicted up to 9 months in advance in SPEAR_MED, due to the persistence and drift of initialized sea ice thickness anomalies from the previous winter. Overall, these results suggest a promising potential for providing operational Antarctic sea ice predictions on seasonal time scales.

Tracking Southern Ocean Sea Ice Extent With Winter Water: A New Method Based on the Oxygen Isotopic Signature of Foraminifera

AbstractSouthern Ocean sea ice plays a central role in the oceanic meridional overturning circulation, transforming globally prevalent watermasses through surface buoyancy loss and gain. Buoyancy loss due to surface cooling and sea ice growth promotes the formation of bottom water that flows into the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific basins, while buoyancy gain due to sea ice melt helps transform the returning deep flow into intermediate and mode waters. Because northward expansion of Southern Ocean sea ice during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 19–23 kyr BP) may have enhanced deep ocean stratification and contributed to lower atmospheric CO2 levels, reconstructions of sea ice extent are critical to understanding the LGM climate state. Here, we present a new sea ice proxy based on the 18O/16O ratio of foraminifera (δ18Oc). In the seasonal sea ice zone, sea ice formation during austral winter creates a cold surface mixed layer that persists in the sub‐surface during spring and summer. The cold sub‐surface layer, known as winter water, sits above relatively warm deep water, creating an inverted temperature profile. The unique surface‐to‐deep temperature contrast is reflected in estimates of equilibrium δ18Oc, implying that paired analysis of planktonic and benthic foraminifera can be used to infer sea ice extent. To demonstrate the feasibility of the δ18Oc method, we present a compilation of N. pachyderma and Cibicidoides spp. results from the Atlantic sector that yields an estimate of winter sea ice extent consistent with modern observations.

An empirical method for the prediction of extreme low winter sea ice extent in the Barents Sea

This study addresses a possibility to use surface air temperature (SAT) of the Northern Hemisphere as a potential predictor for winter sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Barents Sea. The areas of most significant correlation between the leading modes of joint variability of the observed SIC in January-March and the SAT in the autumn, winter, and spring months in the 1979-2019 period are determined using a method of singular value decomposition (SVD) of covariance matrices. An analysis of the structure of this linkage has shown its robustness for SIC in the Barents Sea. The most strongly related areas are found in the first leading mode of the SVD analysis of the SIC in January-March and the SAT in November-January. The first SVD-mode explains in total 55% of covariation of both parameters. It has been revealed that the January-March SIC in the northern part of the Barents Sea is strongly correlated with the November-January SAT in Scandinavia and over the Barents Sea (the correlation coefficient is -0.8). The relationship between the SIC and SAT in key areas has allowed obtaining estimates of SIC in the northern part of the Barents Sea in the 21st century from an ensemble of 30 CMIP5 GCMs by using models’ SAT data. It has been found that the RCP 4.5 scenario results in a strong reduction in the sea ice in the northern part of the Barents Sea by 2041-2050. At the same time, no complete disappearance of sea ice is expected until the end of the century. According to the aggressive scenario RCP 8.5, almost free-ice Barents Sea is expected by the middle of the 21st century.

The breeding seabird community reveals that recent sea ice loss in the Pacific Arctic does not benefit piscivores and is detrimental to planktivores

Recent dramatic reductions of winter sea ice in the northern Bering Sea have raised the possibility that a rapid ecological transformation is underway. It has been hypothesized that with sufficient sea ice loss the cold pool thermal barrier separating the northern and southern Bering Sea would be breached, potentially benefiting piscivorous seabirds with an influx of abundant forage fish, but maybe causing food limitations for planktivorous seabirds that rely on cold-water associated species of zooplankton. During 2016–2019, we examined responses of the seabird community breeding on St. Lawrence Island to variable winter sea ice extent (low in 2018–2019). The seabird community includes piscivorous black-legged kittiwakes, thick-billed and common murres, and planktivorous crested and least auklets. We used a combination of stable isotope analysis and nutritional stress status analyses to examine if the region's ecosystem has shifted to a pelagic prey base, and whether either foraging guild benefitted from such a shift. To interpret bird responses, we used stable isotope analyses of prey and trawl survey-derived abundance of forage size fish. Stable isotope values in blood tissues revealed no change in the prey base as reflected in the isotopic space used by the seabird community across the four study years. Sea-ice loss was, however, associated with increased nutritional stress in all seabird species and diverging foraging niches within guilds. Benthic forage-sized fish remained a key food source, with their abundance stable since 2010, and benthic-foraging thick-billed murres experienced relatively low nutritional stress across the study period. A significant increase in common murre nutritional stress levels between 2016 and 2017, and a shift in their isotopic niche indicative of higher reliance on benthic prey coincided with a decline in the abundance of pelagic forage fish in the region. Surface-foraging black-legged kittiwakes experienced steady increases in nutritional stress as the abundance of pelagic forage fish declined. The spring sea-ice loss was detrimental to planktivorous least and crested auklets that rely on zooplankton advected from the Bering Sea basin. During the study period both auklets have experienced severe nutritional stress (2018) and colony-wide reproductive failures (2018 and 2019). In conclusion, we found that increasingly warm conditions during 2016–2019 have challenged the adaptive ability of seabirds relying on pelagic fish and zooplankton advected into the region each summer, but have not yet resulted in a reorganization of the northern Bering Sea's benthic-dominated ecosystem.

Distribution of suspended particulate matter in the Barents Sea in late winter 2019

Arctic summer and winter sea-ice extent is continuously declining as a result of climate change, affecting the hydrography and biogeochemical cycles on the seasonally ice-free Eurasian Shelves. The prolongation of the open-water season causes higher sediment resuspension and coastal erosion due to larger wind fetch and wave heights. This impacts the optical properties of the water column and hence biological productivity in this region. During “Transarktika-2019” leg 1 in late winter 2019, a comprehensive dataset of and optical data was collected throughout the central and northern Barents Sea. Combining suspended particulate matter concentrations obtained from water samples and optical data revealed a pronounced bottom nepheloid layer on the Barents Sea shelf even under ice-covered conditions. Moreover, the data indicate that the Franz Viktoria Trough could be a major pathway for sediment transport into the Eurasian Basin. Therefore, to link changes in sediment distribution and its impact on the ecosystem under a warming climate, further studies of sediment dynamics are required, particularly during winter.

Breeding together, wintering an ocean apart: Foraging ecology of the northern Bering Sea thick-billed and common murres in years of contrasting sea-ice conditions

Assessing impacts of environmental change on Arctic-breeding seabirds requires a better understanding of their year-round movement and foraging ecology. Here we examined the post-breeding movements and diving behavior of thick-billed (Uria lomvia) and common murres (U. aalge) breeding on St. Lawrence Island, northern Bering Sea, by using geolocators deployed in 2016 (n = 3, per species). During 2016–2019, we examined foraging niches and exposure to nutritional stress by using stable isotope signatures and corticosterone titers of blood and feather tissues (n = 60–96, per species). We found that thick-billed murres migrated to the Chukchi Sea in the fall and wintered in the western North Pacific, whereas common murres stayed in the eastern Bering Sea in the fall and wintered in the eastern North Pacific. Nutritional stress levels of breeding common murres were higher in 2017–2019, the period of historic low winter sea-ice extent, than in 2016. Higher nutritional stress levels of post-breeding thick-billed murres were associated with lower fall sea-ice extent in the Chukchi Sea. These results indicate that the loss of sea-ice might negatively affect murres breeding in the Pacific Arctic. Divergent migratory connectivity between the two murre species might also lead to different conservation threats both inside and outside the Arctic.

Analysing the timing of peak warming and minimum winter sea-ice extent in the Southern Ocean during MIS 5e

The peak of the Last Interglacial, Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e (130–116 ka), provides a valuable ‘process analogue’ for validating the climatic feedbacks and forcings likely active under future anthropogenic warming. Reconstructing exact timings of MIS 5e peak warming and minimum winter sea-ice extent (WSIE) throughout the Southern Ocean (SO) will help to identify the interactions and feedbacks within the ice-ocean system. Here we present a new MIS 5e marine sediment record from the SW Atlantic sector together with 28 published core records (chronologies standardised to the LR04 δ18O benthic stack; Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005) to investigate the timing and sequence of minimum WSIE and peak warming across the SO. Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) peaked earliest in the Indian (20oE–150oE) and Atlantic (70oW–20oE) sectors, at 128.7 ± 0.8 ka and 127.4 ± 1.1 ka respectively, followed by the Pacific sector (150oE–70oW) at 124.9 ± 3.6 ka. The interval of minimum WSIE for all three sectors occurred within the period from 129–125 ka, consistent with the ∼128 ka sea salt flux minimum in Antarctic ice cores. Minimum WSIE appears to have coincided with peak July insolation at 55 oS, suggesting it could be linked with the mildest winters. The reduced WSIE during MIS 5e would have likely reduced the production of deep- and bottom water masses, inhibiting storage of CO2 in the abyssal ocean and lowering nutrient availability in SO surface waters. Examining a wide spatial range of proxy records for MIS 5e is a critical step forward in understanding climatic interactions and processes that will be active under warmer global temperatures.

Regional variability of Arctic sea ice seasonal change climate indicators from a passive microwave climate data record

The seasonal evolution of Arctic sea ice can be described by the timing of key dates of sea ice concentration (SIC) change during its annual retreat and advance cycle. Here, we use SICs from a satellite passive microwave climate data record to identify the sea ice dates of opening (DOO), retreat (DOR), advance (DOA), and closing (DOC) and the periods of time between these events. Regional variability in these key dates, periods, and sea ice melt onset and freeze-up dates for 12 Arctic regions during the melt seasons of 1979–2016 is investigated. We find statistically significant positive trends in the length of the melt season (outer ice-free period) for most of the eastern Arctic, the Bering Sea, and Hudson and Baffin Bays with trends as large as 11.9 d decade−1 observed in the Kara Sea. Trends in the DOR and DOA contribute to statistically significant increases in the length of the open water period for all regions within the Arctic Ocean ranging from 3.9 to 13.8 d decade−1. The length of the ice retreat period (DOR−DOO) ranges from 17.1 d in the Sea of Okhotsk to 41 d in the Greenland Sea. The length of the ice advance period (DOC−DOA) is generally much shorter and ranges from 17.9 to 25.3 d in the Sea of Okhotsk and Greenland Sea, respectively. Additionally, we derive the extent of the seasonal ice zone (SIZ) and find statistically significant negative trends (SIZ is shrinking) in the Sea of Okhotsk, Baffin Bay, Greenland Sea, and Barents Sea regions, which are geographically open to the oceans and influenced by reduced winter sea ice extent. Within regions of the Arctic Ocean, statistically significant positive trends indicate that the extent of the SIZ is expanding as Arctic summer sea ice declines.

An assessment of regional sea ice predictability in the Arctic ocean

Arctic sea ice plays a central role in the Earth’s climate. Changes in the sea ice on seasonal-to-interannual timescales impact ecosystems, populations and a growing number of stakeholders. A prerequisite for achieving better sea ice predictions is a better understanding of the underlying mechanisms of sea ice predictability. Previous studies have shown that sea ice predictability depends on the predictand (area, extent, volume), region, and the initial and target dates. Here we investigate seasonal-to-interannual sea ice predictability in so-called “perfect-model” 3-year-long experiments run with six global climate models initialized in early July. Consistent with previous studies, robust mechanisms for reemergence are highlighted, i.e. increases in the autocorrelation of sea ice properties after an initial loss. Similar winter sea ice extent reemergence is found for HadGEM1.2, GFDL-CM3 and E6F, while a long sea ice volume persistence is confirmed for all models. The comparable predictability characteristics shown by some of the peripheral regions of the Atlantic side illustrate that robust similarities can be found even if models have distinct sea ice states. The analysis of the regional sea ice predictability in EC-Earth2.3 demonstrates that Arctic basins can be classified according to three distinct regimes. The central Arctic drives most of the pan-Arctic sea ice volume persistence. In peripheral seas, we find predictability for the sea ice area in winter but low predictability throughout the rest of the year, due to the particularly unpredictable sea ice edge location. The Labrador Sea stands out among the considered regions, with sea ice predictability extending up to 1.5 years if the oceanic conditions upstream are known.

Circulation and exchange in a broad Arctic fjord using glider-based observations

ABSTRACTIn recent years, Svalbard fjords have experienced a substantial reduction in winter sea-ice extent. This has been linked to changes in wind stress patterns over Fram Strait and an increased transport of warm Atlantic Water into the fjords. In November 2014, we deployed two Slocum gliders to Isfjorden and measured the hydrographical properties and depth-averaged currents in the region. The campaign marked the first time gliders have been used inside an Arctic fjord. We observed geostrophically balanced flow patterns both in the mouth, where the heat flux into the fjord was calculated to be 0.13 TW, and in the interior of Isfjorden, where geostrophic flows were up to 20 cm s−1. After a change in the prevailing wind direction on the West Spitsbergen Shelf, we found evidence for a wind-driven geostrophic control mechanism at the fjord mouth, impeding fjord–shelf exchange, and found that the geostrophic circulation inside the fjord had broken down. We conclude that the circulation patterns in Isfjorden...

Toward an ice‐free Barents Sea

AbstractArctic winter sea ice loss is most pronounced in the Barents Sea. Here we combine observations since 1850 with climate model simulations to examine the recent record low winter Barents Sea ice extent. We find that the present observed winter Barents Sea ice extent has been reduced to less than one third of the pre‐satellite mean and is lower than the minimum sea ice extent in all multicentury climate model control simulations assessed here. The current observed sea ice loss is furthermore unprecedented in the observational record and appears as an uncommon trend in the long control simulations. In a warming climate, projections from the large ensemble simulation with the Community Earth System Model show a winter ice‐free Barents Sea for the first time within the time period 2061–2088. The large spread in projections of ice‐free conditions highlights the importance of internal variability in driving recent and future sea ice loss.