We use the Korteweg–de Vries (KdV) equation, supplemented with several forcing/friction terms, to describe the evolution of wind-driven water wave packets in shallow water. The forcing/friction terms describe wind-wave growth due to critical level instability in the air, wave decay due to laminar friction in the water at the air–water interface, wave stress in the air near the interface induced by a turbulent wind and wave decay due to a turbulent bottom boundary layer. The outcome is a modified KdV–Burgers equation that can be a stable or unstable model depending on the forcing/friction parameters. To analyse the evolution of water wave packets, we adapt the Whitham modulation theory for a slowly varying periodic wave train with an emphasis on the solitary wave train limit. The main outcome is the predicted growth and decay rates due to the forcing/friction terms. Numerical simulations using a Fourier spectral method are performed to validate the theory for various cases of initial wave amplitudes and growth and/or decay parameter ranges. The results from the modulation theory agree well with these simulations. In most cases we examined, many solitary waves are generated, suggesting the formation of a soliton gas.