Wildfire Safety Research Articles

Security constrained optimal power shutoff for wildfire risk mitigation

AbstractElectric grid faults are increasingly the source of ignition for major wildfires. To reduce the likelihood of such ignitions in high risk situations, utilities use preemptive de‐energization of power lines, commonly referred to as Public Safety Power Shutoffs (PSPS). Besides raising challenging trade‐offs between power outages and wildfire safety, PSPS removes redundancy from the network at a time when component faults are likely to happen. This may leave the network particularly vulnerable to unexpected line faults that may occur while the PSPS is in place. Previous works have not explicitly considered the impacts of these outages. To address this gap, the Security Constrained Optimal Power Shutoff problem is proposed which uses post‐contingency security constraints to model the impact of unexpected line faults when planning a PSPS. This model enables, for the first time, the exploration of a wide range of trade‐offs between both wildfire risk and pre‐ and post‐contingency load shedding when designing PSPS plans, providing useful insights for utilities and policy makers considering different approaches to PSPS. The efficacy of the model is demonstrated using the EPRI 39‐bus system as a case study. The results highlight the potential risks of not considering security constraints when planning PSPS and show that incorporating security constraints into the PSPS design process improves the resilience of current PSPS plans.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Climate Influence of Forest Fires in Fujian Province, China

Climate determines the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of forest fires by affecting vegetation and the extent of drought. Thus, analyzing the dynamic change of the forest fire season and its response to climate change will play an important role in targeted adjustments of forest fire management policies and practices. In this study, we studied the spatiotemporal variations in forest fire occurrence in Fujian Province, China using the Mann–Kendall trend test and correlation analysis to analyze Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from 2001 to 2016 and meteorological data. The results show that forest fire occurrence rose first and then declined over the years, but the proportion of forest fires during the fire prevention period decreased. The forest fires increased significantly in spring and summer, exceeding the forest fires occurring in the fire prevention period in 2010. The spatial distribution of forest fires decreased from northwest to southeast coastal areas, among which the number of forest fires in the northwest mountainous areas was large in autumn and winter. The fire risk weather index was strongly and positively correlated with forest fire occurrence across various sites in the province. The findings accentuate the need for properly adjusting the fire prevention period and resource allocation, strengthening the monitoring and early warning of high fire risk weather, and publicizing wildfire safety in spring and summer. As the forest fire occurrence frequency is high in the western and northwest mountainous areas, more observation towers and forest fire monitoring facilities should be installed.

Protective Decision-Making in Bushfire Part 1: A Rapid Systematic Review of the ‘Wait and See’ Literature

Delaying protective action decision making in wildfire is inconsistent with fire authorities’ advice and is associated with fatalities. A comprehensive understanding of why at-risk residents wait and see whether they will evacuate from a wildfire or remain to shelter or defend can better inform wildfire safety policy and practice. This systematic review reports the findings of 40 papers selected from 255 identified through a search of papers in Scopus, Science Direct and Google Scholar published between 1995 and December 2020 in English. This review establishes the extent of wait and see behaviour; grounds for concern for such behaviour; reasons protective action is delayed; the influence of information and warnings; relevance of gender and other characteristics; delay by those who defend their property; and policy implications. This review also details 11 seminal studies that capture much of the evidence on the delay of protective action in wildfire.

Navigating the wildfire-pandemic interface: Public perceptions of COVID-19 and the 2020 wildfire season in Arizona.

COVID-19 has complicated wildfire management and public safety for the 2020 fire season. It is unclear whether COVID-19 has impacted the ability of residents in the wildland-urban interface to prepare for and evacuate from wildfire, or the extent to which residents feel their household's safety has been affected. Several areas with high wildfire risk are also experiencing record numbers of COVID-19 cases, including the state of Arizona in the southwestern United States. We conducted a mixed-mode survey of households in close proximity to two recent wildfires in rural Arizona to better understand whether residents living in the wildland-urban interface perceive COVID-19 as a factor in wildfire safety. Preliminary data suggest that the current challenges around collective action to address wildfire risk may be further exacerbated due to COVID-19, and that the current pandemic has potentially widened existing disparities in household capacity to conduct wildfire risk mitigation activities in the wildland-urban interface. Proactive planning for wildfire has also increased perceived ability to practice safe distancing from others during evacuation, highlighting the benefits that household planning for wildfire can have on other concurrent hazards. Parallels in both the wildfire and pandemic literature highlight vast opportunities for future research that can expand upon and advance our findings.

Foliar Moisture Content from the Spectral Signature for Wildfire Risk Assessments in Valparaíso-Chile.

Fuel moisture content (FMC) proved to be one of the most relevant parameters for controlling fire behavior and risk, particularly at the wildland-urban interface (WUI). Data relating FMC to spectral indexes for different species are an important requirement identified by the wildfire safety community. In Valparaíso, the WUI is mainly composed of Eucalyptus Globulus and Pinus Radiata—commonly found in Mediterranean WUI areas—which represent the 97.51% of the forests plantation inventory. In this work we study the spectral signature of these species under different levels of FMC. In particular, we analyze the behavior of the spectral reflectance per each species at five dehydration stages, obtaining eighteen spectral indexes related to water content and, for Eucalyptus Globulus, the area of each leave—associated with the water content—is also computed. As the main outcome of this research, we provide a validated linear regression model associated with each spectral index and the fuel moisture content and moisture loss, per each species studied.

О мнимой и реальной экономической эффективности борьбы с лесными пожарами в Сибири

<span>Дана критическая оценка существующего подхода к экономической оценке последствий лесных пожаров, в результате которого сильно недооцениваются риски и ущерб для здоровья и жизни людей. Применение этого подхода при организации тушения лесных пожаров в Сибири летом 2019 г. привело к отказу от тушения огня на большой территории так называемых зон контроля. Исходя из (а) приоритетов угроз для здоровья и жизни населения (из них главную опасность представляет не огонь, а содержащий вредные и токсичные вещества дым), (б) принятых ВОЗ критериев эффективности мер спасения жизни, автор доказывает, что затраты на тушение лесных пожаров являются эффективными с социально-экономической точки зрения; а затраты, связанные с локализацией очагов лесных пожаров на доступных участках зон контроля</span><span class="myHorizontalScaleForEmDashSpaceBefore"> </span><span>–</span><span class="myHorizontalScaleForEmDashSpaceAfter"> </span><span>высокоэффективными. Обосновано, что проблема лесных пожаров по своей значимости относится к категории задач обеспечения национальной безопасности, и ее решение требует комплексного подхода, отрицающего используемый до сих пор сугубо фискальный способ оценки эффективности затрат на меры пожаротушения.</span>

Uncovering the perception regarding wildfires of residents with different characteristics

Wildfires are a major environmental hazard in Portugal and cause deep social and economic disruption, demanding urgent actions for risk mitigation and people's protection. We aimed to understand if the personal characteristics of people, such as age, gender or education level, influenced their knowledge and perception regarding specific topics related to wildfires: i) wildfire risk; ii) spot fires and the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI); iii) self-protection possibilities; iv) community involvement and v) knowledge on legal instruments and plans from government agencies, in order to identify potential mitigation and prevention actions more suited to their experience and needs. Starting with the residents of two small villages recently affected by wildfires, and then extended to other areas in the mainland, we used responses to 282 survey questionnaires to discover people's perception on the different topics. Younger and more educated people feel confident with their knowledge on how to act in high fire danger situations. People with jobs related to forest industries mentioned having the ability to defend themselves and property. Most people found it difficult to provide a clear definition of wildfire risk and they did not know what WUI is, indicating that these concepts are not sufficiently understood amongst the civil society. Most people said they do not know about legal measures or plans that could mitigate wildfire risk, although these are commonly based on intervention at community level and individual household responsibility. Wildfire risk management strategies must address the challenges linked to the need to tailor communication to people's conditions, educating at-risk communities in order to enhance the connection between citizens and community wildfire safety policies.

Australian wildland-urban interface householders’ wildfire safety preparations: ‘Everyday life’ project priorities and perceptions of wildfire risk

Globally, many residents of wildland-urban interface (WUI) communities are at risk of wildfire attack but do not undertake adequate preparations. Householder wildfire risk perception has been proposed as an important influence on risk mitigation preparatory actions. However, research findings have been inconsistent. We conducted a meta-analysis of 10 studies and found the average correlation between wildfire risk perception and risk mitigation actions to be small: r = 0.17. In order to investigate wildfire risk perception and mitigation further we conducted two studies of Australian WUI householders’ wildfire risk perceptions and mitigation actions in the context of their everyday life activities conceptualised as ‘household projects’. Study 1 involved 32 interviews. Both household wildfire safety project priority rankings (r = 0.47) and wildfire risk perception ratings (r = 0.44) were related significantly to number of completed wildfire preparation actions. Study 2 involved 127 householders completing an online survey, with 83 providing household wildfire safety project priority rankings. These rankings were related significantly to number of completed wildfire safety preparation actions (r = 0.38), but risk perception ratings were not related significantly (r = 0.08). Implications of viewing wildfire preparation actions as being situated in everyday life contexts are discussed.

Gender, households, and decision-making for wildfire safety.

This paper considers the impact of gendered norms on decision-making for wildfire preparation and response at the household level. Focusing on Australia, it provides a theoretical thematic analysis of data acquired in 107 interviews with residents of nine different localities. It builds on existing research on gender and disaster, as well as on decision-making and wildfires, and analyses the narratives that centre on 'split' households plans (where a male partner plans to stay and a female partner plans to evacuate) and disagreements within heterosexual couples as to an appropriate wildfire safety plan. The study finds that gender inequality and differences in gendered expectations are likely to create difficult conditions for negotiation between members of a heterosexual couple when there is disagreement over a plan and that this may contribute to risky decision-making practices and outcomes. The paper reiterates, therefore, the importance of taking into account the social construction of gender in wildfire research and policy.

Wildfire risk reduction in the United States: Leadership staff perceptions of local fire department roles and responsibilities

As wildland fires have had increasing negative impacts on a range of human values, in many parts of the United States (U.S.) and around the world, collaborative risk reduction efforts among agencies, homeowners, and fire departments are needed to improve wildfire safety and mitigate risk. Using interview data from 46 senior officers from local fire departments around the U.S., we examine how leadership staff view their departments’ roles and responsibilities in wildfire risk reduction. Overall, our findings indicate that local fire personnel are often performing a variety of mitigation tasks and roles, acting as informants, educators, partners, and planners. The challenges these local departments have experienced also point to how funding, information sharing, and staff buy-in can better facilitate engagement in mitigation work and ultimately help improve community wildfire safety.

On the concept of denial of natural hazard risk and its use in relation to householder wildfire safety in Australia

Denial has often been used to explain why some residents at risk from natural hazards do not take appropriate threat mitigation actions. However, there has been little critical discussion of the concept of denial in relation to natural hazards. We examined the origins and development of the concept and noted that denial, as an explanation for inaction, is an inferred construct, not an observable phenomenon. We reviewed accounts that proposed denial as an explanation for residents failing to mitigate their natural hazard risk. We concluded that the concept has been used so inconsistently as to be meaningless without an explanation of the intended sense of the term. We discuss findings from reports of post-event interviews with residents threatened by severe Australian wildfires, and from a survey of agency community safety senior managers. The reports indicated that small percentages of residents in high-risk communities could be described as perhaps being in denial. The survey found that none of the wildfire agencies employed the concept formally. We suggest that it may be more useful to view most householders' failures to mitigate their wildfire risk as resulting from potential threats being entwined with more immediate higher priority competing demands of everyday life.

Psychological differences between south-eastern Australian householders' who intend to leave if threatened by a wildfire and those who intend to stay and defend

Disastrous wildfires have occurred often in south-eastern Australia. Following multi-fatality wildfires in Victoria on 7 February 2009 the national approach to community wildfire safety, ‘Prepare, stay and defend or leave early’, came under intense critical scrutiny. The approach was revised subsequently so as to emphasise leaving as the safest option in the event of a wildfire warning. This study reports findings from a survey of 584 residents of at-risk locations. The majority (47%) reported that they intended to leave if warned of a bushfire threat. However, a substantial minority (24%) reported that they intended to stay and defend their home. A further 29% reported that they intended to wait and see what developed before making a final decision. Those intending to leave differed from those intending to stay and defend in several ways. Those intending to leave were characterised generally by being more concerned about the danger posed by bushfires, they viewed themselves as more vulnerable to bushfire threat and they were worried about their house being destroyed in their absence. Those intending to stay and defend were motivated, mostly, to protect their valued property and they believed that their efforts would be successful. They did not perceive themselves to be risk takers. Those intending to leave generally reported rather low levels of preparations for leaving safely. An appreciable percentage of those intending to stay and defend reported levels of preparations for safe defence which were probably inadequate for safe and effective defence.

Exposing hidden-value trade-offs: sharing wildfire management responsibility between government and citizens

Developing resilient communities and sharing responsibility for hazard management is the key to Australia’s ‘National Strategy for Disaster Resilience’. There are, however, a wide range of conflicting views on the appropriate responsibilities of governments, citizens and communities that are not well recognised in the national policy discourse. What the ideas of resilient communities and shared responsibility mean for wildfire management and how these ideas might shape wildfire safety thinking and practice is therefore unclear and contested. This paper makes explicit some of the necessary, but often hidden, trade-offs between competing values that are implicit in assessments of where responsibility for wildfire management lies, and how it should be shared. After describing different ways in which responsibility is attributed and legitimated through legal and governance systems, this paper compares and contrasts potential legal and governance implications of four hypothetical scenarios for wildfire management, each of which portrays a contrasting set of extreme value trade-offs. The underlying purpose of the exercise is to encourage stakeholders to draw on the frameworks to explicitly acknowledge and debate the value trade-offs that are necessary, but most often unacknowledged, in more moderate decision-making about how to share responsibility for risk management between governments and citizens.

Predictors of south-eastern Australian householders' strengths of intentions to self-evacuate if a wildfire threatens: two theoretical models

Householder evacuation in the face of a wildfire threat is the survival option advocated by fire agencies. However, late evacuation is common and has resulted in loss of life. The primary aim of this study was to investigate potential predictors of householders’ strength of intention to leave early in response to a bushfire threat warning. A survey of 584 residents of bushfire-prone locations in south-eastern Australia was conducted. Theory of planned behaviour (TPB) and protection motivation theory (PMT) were used to explore predictors of strength of householders’ intentions to leave, or to stay and defend following a bushfire warning. TPB was a useful predictor of strength of intention to leave, but PMT was not such a useful predictor of strength of intention to leave. Householder efficacy and self-characterisation were important contributors, whereas perceptions of severity and susceptibility to threat were not found to be significant contributors. Neither model performed well in predicting strength of intention to stay and defend. The findings are discussed in relation to community wildfire safety research and practice.

Householders’ safety-related decisions, plans, actions and outcomes during the 7 February 2009 Victorian (Australia) wildfires

This study examined decisions made by householders under wildfire threat. Data were obtained from interviews with survivors of severe wildfires in Victoria (Australia) on 7 February 2009 which killed 172 civilians and destroyed more than 2000 homes. Prior to this, Australian fire agency community wildfire safety policy was that residents should: ‘Prepare, stay and defend or leave early’. Most of the 223 interviewees who stayed and defended did so because this was their wildfire safety plan, and they believed that they would be successful despite the predicted extreme fire danger weather. In 79% of cases, defence was successful; for the remaining 21% the house was destroyed and several lives were imperilled. Of the 216 who left for a safer location only 39% said that this was their wildfire safety plan; for most, the action of leaving was triggered by realisation of the imminent threat posed by the fire; 36% self-evacuated under hazardous conditions. The findings suggest that community wildfire safety programs should emphasize: (a) the risks associated with staying to defend a property; and (b) how householders should prepare in order to leave safely if a fire threatens.

Wildfire safety with wireless sensor networks

Nowadays, the Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) paradigm is extensively used for the environmental monitoring including wildfires. Like other disasters, this phenomenon, if not detected early, may have grave consequences, e.g. a significant pecuniary loss, or even lead to human victims. This paper sur

Situating Hazard Vulnerability: People’s Negotiations with Wildfire Environments in the U.S. Southwest

This article is based on a multimethod study designed to clarify influences on wildfire hazard vulnerability in Arizona's White Mountains, USA. Findings reveal that multiple factors operating across scales generate socially unequal wildfire risks. At the household scale, conflicting environmental values, reliance on fire insurance and firefighting institutions, a lack of place dependency, and social vulnerability (e.g., a lack of financial, physical, and/or legal capacity to reduce risks) were found to be important influences on wildfire risk. At the regional-scale, the shift from a resource extraction to environmental amenity-based economy has transformed ecological communities, produced unequal social distributions of risks and resources, and shaped people's social and environmental interactions in everyday life. While working-class locals are more socially vulnerable than amenity migrants to wildfire hazards, they have also been more active in attempting to reduce risks in the aftermath of the disastrous 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire. Social tensions between locals and amenity migrants temporarily dissolved immediately following the disaster, only to be exacerbated by the heightened perception of risk and the differential commitment to hazard mitigation displayed by these groups over a 2-year study period. Findings suggest that to enhance wildfire safety, environmental managers should acknowledge the environmental benefits associated with hazardous landscapes, the incentives created by risk management programs, and the specific constraints to action for relevant social groups in changing human-environmental context.