Wildfire Evacuation Research Articles

Cooperative community wildfire response: Pathways to First Nations’ leadership and partnership in British Columbia, Canada

With the growing scale of wildfires, many First Nations are demanding a stronger role in wildfire response. Disproportionate impacts on Indigenous communities (including First Nations, Métis, and Inuit) in Canada are motivating these demands: although approximately 5 % of the population identifies as Indigenous, about 42 % of wildfire evacuation events occur communities that are more than half Indigenous. In what is now known as British Columbia, Canada, new pathways for cooperative wildfire response between First Nations and provincial agencies are emerging. Drawing from semi-structured interviews with 15 experts from First Nations communities and agencies, and a review of 42 documents on wildfire response, our research highlights the diverse existing capacities, priority opportunities, and processes required to enhance cooperative pathways. Within First Nations communities, existing capacities include local knowledge, firefighting experience, equipment, funding, relationships, and leadership – an overlooked but fundamental capacity. Priority opportunities include ways to build capacity within and beyond wildfire response, such as fully equipped response crews, full-time year-round wildfire management crews, Emergency Management Coordinators, First Nations Liaisons, and cross-trained wildland and structural crews. Translating existing capacities into priority opportunities requires an ongoing focus on cooperative processes, including relationship-building, respecting Rights and Title, streamlining funding, and enabling “cultural safety” to overcome racism. These cooperative pathways can help transform wildfire governance toward First Nations-led partnerships.

Optimizing Wildfire Evacuations through Scenario-Based Simulations with Autonomous Vehicles

Optimizing Wildfire Evacuations through Scenario-Based Simulations with Autonomous Vehicles

Neighborhood-Scale Wildfire Evacuation Vulnerability in Hays County, TX

Neighborhood-Scale Wildfire Evacuation Vulnerability in Hays County, TX

Social and health factors influence self-reported evacuation intentions in the wildfire-prone island of Tasmania, Australia

BackgroundPersonal decisions regarding evacuation to a safer place in response to the threat of wildfire have multiple social and cultural influences. However, little is understood about the role of an individual's health in shaping these decisions. Aim: To investigate associations between self-reported sociodemographic and health-related variables and wildfire evacuation intentions. MethodsWe used data collected in the 2016 Tasmanian Population Health Survey and implemented log binomial regression modelling to characterise associations between variables, including overall health status, presence of a chronic medical condition, age group, sex, educational attainment, employment status, financial security, and intention to leave during a wildfire threat. ResultsFemales were significantly more likely than males to report an intention to leave (RR = 1.52, 95 % CI [1.40–1.66]), as were those with higher versus lower educational attainment (RR = 1.02, 95 % CI [1.00–1.03]), and those with a diagnosis of depression/anxiety (RR = 1.07, 95 % CI [1.00–1.15]) compared to those without. When stratified by sex, significant associations with intention to leave and asthma and higher educational attainment were observed in males (asthma: RR = 1.28, 95 % CI [1.04–1.57]; educational attainment RR = 1.05, 95 % CI [1.01–1.09]), while the association with anxiety/depression was imprecisely elevated for females (RR = 1.08, 95 % CI [1.00–1.16]). For males only, the presence of a chronic condition was significantly associated with an intention to stay (RR = 0.78, 95 % CI [0.62–0.99]). ConclusionSex, educational attainment, and the presence of asthma and depression/anxiety influenced evacuation intentions for residents in our study. Such social, demographic and health differences should be considered in planning communication and messaging to residents in fire-prone areas.

Wildland fire evacuations in Canada from 1980 to 2021

Background Every year, people in Canada are evacuated due to wildland fires to avoid death, injury, and illness from fire and smoke events. Aims In this paper, we provide an overview of evacuations recorded in the Canadian Wildland Fire Evacuation Database between 1980 and 2021. Methods Our analysis covers evacuations in Canada from 1980 to 2021. We provide summary statistics including number of evacuations and evacuees, evacuation duration, seasonality, evacuation causes, community types, structure losses, and fatalities. We also investigate temporal and spatial patterns. Key results Between 1980 and 2021, there were 1393 wildland fire evacuation events with 576,747 people evacuated. During this period, there was an overall increase in frequency of evacuations, number of evacuees, and duration of events. Structure loss occurred during 194 evacuation events, with 4105 homes burned. We estimate wildland fire evacuations cost at least CAD3.7 billion (excluding structural losses), jumping to CAD4.6 billion if we include productivity losses. Indigenous peoples are disproportionately impacted in wildfire evacuations compared to the general Canadian population. Conclusions Wildland fire evacuations continue to occur across Canada and are increasing. Implications The findings from this study give us a better understanding of the characteristics of wildland fire evacuations, which can help guide emergency management.

Planning Wildfire Evacuation in the Wildland–Urban Interfaces of Central Portugal

Planning Wildfire Evacuation in the Wildland–Urban Interfaces of Central Portugal

WUI-PEM: Wildfire Phased Zone Evacuation Methodology

Wildfires are a growing threat to wildland-urban interface (WUI) communities. Globally over the last decade hundreds of wildfire related deaths have occurred along with hundreds of billions in economic losses. If the encroachment of fire into a community cannot be stopped, evacuation becomes necessary to save lives. In response to the increasing threat, WUI communities must properly prepare and implement an evacuation plan, as orchestrating an evacuation within a limited time frame is a complex challenge. While several fire and evacuation simulation tools have been developed to aid planning, a comprehensive methodology for constructing and assessing evacuation plans is still evolving. This article fills some of the current gaps with a simple six-step process to evaluate wildfire risk, individual evacuation zone traffic demand, and formulate a staged zone-based full evacuation plan. This methodology can be used for wildfire evacuation planning, evacuation plan management, and training.

Wildfire Evacuation Challenges in Multi-ethnic Communities: An Information Communication Perspective

The areas with high wildfire risk of wildfire are inhabited by multiple ethnic groups in China. In the event of a wildfire, there are many challenges for the government to release evacuation information to residents in multi-ethnic communities. Based on the Shannon-Weaver model of communication, a whole-process communication model of evacuation information is constructed to reflect the challenges during the whole process, including the dynamic variability, regional difference and cross-language expression of evacuation information at the stage of information generation, the inadequate communication capability of information carriers and instability of communication infrastructures at the stage of information transmission, and comprehension impairment and irrational perception at the stage of information perception. In response to these challenges, the authors also make some suggestions from the intelligent information technology, crisis response system and offline communication channels.

A Focused Review on Wildfire Evacuation and Infrastructure Resilience in Canada: Trends and Insights (2013–2023)

A Focused Review on Wildfire Evacuation and Infrastructure Resilience in Canada: Trends and Insights (2013–2023)

Systematic review and research gaps on wildfire evacuations: infrastructure, transportation modes, networks, and planning

ABSTRACT Wildfires pose significant threats to communities, requiring robust pre-event planning for efficient evacuations. Transportation systems are crucial for these efforts, yet global research gaps persist, especially those related to transportation assets and transportation modes beyond privately owned automobiles. This study conducts a systematic review of four under-researched areas – infrastructure, modality, networks, and planning – to build a more comprehensive understanding of wildfire evacuations. Initial research is emerging in these domains, related to post-fire debris flows, air and transit evacuations, network analysis, and shelter planning. However, systematic analyses, evidence, and recommendations remain lacking. This includes wildfire's direct impact on transportation infrastructure, multi-modal evacuations, routing strategies, and community-driven evacuation plans. We underscore the need for empirical evacuation strategies to foster resilience for wildfire-threatened communities, offering valuable context-specific insights, identifying key actions, and highlighting ongoing research gaps.

Exploring Wildfire Evacuation Strategies for Diverse Communities

Wildfire evacuations have become a persistent challenge all over the world in recent years. Studies have proposed various evacuation strategies, such as vehicle reduction, phased evacuation, and prohibition of on-street parking, which have demonstrated effectiveness in specific communities. However, a comprehensive study that generalizes the effectiveness and applicability of these strategies across different types of communities is lacking. This generalization could hold significant value for small, resource-strapped communities situated in wildland–urban interface zones (i.e., comprising a mix of residences and flammable vegetation) that lack the resources to conduct dedicated evacuation studies. In this study, two indicators, the ratio of background traffic volume to the number of evacuees (RBE), and the ratio of the capacity of the main evacuation roads to the number of evacuees (RCE) were derived to categorize communities into specific groups based on their characteristics during wildfire events. Through evacuation simulations of some typical real-world communities, the applicability and effectiveness of each strategy for each group was assessed. For the given scenarios considered, the findings revealed that for communities with high a RBE and low RCE, promoting carpooling with more than two people per vehicle, extending phased evacuation intervals with safety assurance for evacuees, and enforcing on-street parking prohibition made evacuations more effective. For other communities, encouraging families to use fewer vehicles and implementing a 15-min phased interval, if possible, could potentially be useful.

Video analysis of human behaviour during wildfire evacuations

Wildfire impacts are increasing due to the multiplicative effect of several factors, including climate change, increased vulnerability in the wildland-urban interface, and impacts of management decisions. This has also led to an increase in evacuations due to the number of wildfires and people affected. This study collected information on behaviour during wildfire evacuation to fill critical research gaps in human behaviour and evacuation knowledge. Seven videos of residents’ evacuations from the 2016 Fort McMurray fire were collected from public platforms. Their routes were analyzed, and notable behavioural events were recorded. The evacuees mainly used major roads before getting onto the highway (the only route available for vehicular egress). The notable behaviours observed included using opposite lanes and driving outside of marked roads to avoid congestion. Much of the observed behaviours appeared to be motivated by the surrounding traffic or fire behaviour, further supporting the need for further studies of evacuation.

Analyzing Risk Perception, Evacuation Decision and Delay Time: A Case Study of the 2021 Marshall Fire in Colorado

Climate change is increasing the threat of wildfires to populated areas, especially those within the wildland-urban interface (WUI). The 2021 Marshall fire forced the evacuation of over 30,000 people in Boulder, Jefferson and Adams Counties in Colorado, US. To improve our understanding of wildfire evacuation response, we surveyed individuals affected by the Marshall fire to analyze their evacuation decisions and resulting behavior. We used linear and logistic regression models to determine the factors influencing individuals’ risk perceptions, their decisions to evacuate or stay, and the associated evacuation delay times. We found higher levels of risk perception at the time of the evacuation decision were associated with higher levels of pre-fire perceived risk, having mid-level household income, the receipt of fire cues and having a medical condition. Increased pre-event risk perception increased the likelihood of evacuating, along with gender (female-identified), being aged between 55 and 64 years, and having a higher household income. On the other hand, having a prior awareness of wildfires had a negative effect on evacuation likelihood. Additionally, having previous experience with fire damage, owning their home, having a larger household size and being alerted later in the fire event reduced the delay time; whereas engaging in preparation activities and having children in the home led to longer delay times. These research findings can be used by emergency managers to better prepare WUI communities for future wildfire events.

Directional analysis of community wildfire evacuation capabilities

Wildfires are a natural part of forest ecosystems, but sometimes pose a threat to communities. In Canada, when public safety is threatened by a wildfire encroaching into the wildland-urban interface (WUI), fire management agencies will recommend that local authorities evacuate the area. If a fire spreads quickly towards a community and egress capacity is insufficient, public safety can be compromised. This paper presents an interdisciplinary approach for assessing community directional vulnerabilities for wildfire evacuation, combining techniques from wildland fire science and transportation engineering. For a selection of communities in Alberta that were assessed as being potentially vulnerable to wildfire, we explored the directional configuration of the transportation network in relation to a directional assessment of wildfire exposure. We first plotted the viable fire pathways and transportation facility characteristics, and then compared estimated fire encroachment times against estimated community egress times, directionally around each community to show evacuation vulnerabilities. Our results show that some communities, mainly within the Boreal Forest, Foothills and Rocky Mountain natural regions, have egress routes that are highly exposed to potential wildfire encroachment. Our findings also indicate that the evacuation timing for some larger communities needs attention, given relationships between estimated fire travel times and evacuation times. The results can be used to inform evacuation preparedness planning and proactive mitigation efforts.

Mental health during wildfires in Southcentral Alaska: An assessment of community-derived mental health categories, interventions, and implementation considerations

Previous studies have linked wildfires to a range of adverse mental health outcomes, but there has been limited research on the mental health impacts of wildfire in Alaska, an area undergoing rapid environmental change. We used a multi-level qualitative approach to identify mental health and psychosocial problems, coping, existing support, and gaps in support among communities who were affected by the Swan Lake and McKinley fires in Alaska in 2019. We recruited 39 community members from Anchorage and the Kenai Peninsula to participate in free list interviews, a community ranking workshop, and in-depth interviews, and we recruited 12 professional key informants including wildland firefighters, mental health providers, community advocates, policy makers, and public health professionals to participate in in-depth interviews and a discussion-based workshop. There were several locally-defined categories of mental health issues identified in relation to wildfires in southcentral Alaska in 2019. Key informants who work in the region identified a package of communications-related interventions as being the most impactful and actionable support for wildfire-related mental health concerns. Additional highly rated mental health supports centered around leadership acknowledging the connection between wildfire and mental health, connecting community members to formal or informal systems of mental health care, enhancing the emergency shelter system, and providing crises debriefing during wildfire evacuations. The results of this study can be utilized to facilitate implementation of prevention and response activities to support mental health resilience during wildfires in Alaska and other wildfire-affected regions.

Evaluating driving behavior patterns during wildfire evacuations in wildland-urban interface zones using connected vehicles data

Wildfire risk is increasing all over the world, particularly in the western United States and the communities in wildland-urban interface (WUI) areas are at the greatest risk of fire. Understanding the driving behavior of individuals to evacuate fire-affected WUI areas is important as the evacuees may encounter low visibility and difficult driving conditions due to burning material and steep topography. This study investigates the driving behavior patterns of individuals during historical wildfire events in rural and urban areas with mandatory evacuation orders using a connected vehicle dataset. This dataset provides the geolocation and timestamp of vehicles’ hard-braking (HB) and hard-acceleration (HA) events. The comparative analysis of the data demonstrated that the reported HA & HB event patterns were consistent in representing the varying driving behavior in response to the changing driving conditions and the depiction of the temporal and spatial impact of the fire in all studied areas. Moreover, the HB event dataset located critical traffic congestion points and the HA event dataset revealed the hurried response of evacuees on the exiting routes as a result of short-notice evacuation. In addition, significant differences in driving behavior patterns were noticed between rural and urban areas.

The analysis of traffic data of wildfire evacuation: the case study of the 2020 Glass Fire

Evacuation is a crucial policy to mitigate wildfire impacts. Understanding traffic dynamics during a wildfire evacuation can help authorities to improve in improving emergency management plans, thus improving life safety. In this study, we developed a methodology to extract historical traffic data from vehicle detector stations and automate the analysis of traffic dynamics for actual wildfire evacuations. This has been implemented in an open-access tool called Traffic Dynamic Analyser (TDA) which generates speed-density and flow-density relationships from data using both commonly used macroscopic traffic models as well as machine learning techniques (e.g., support vector regression). The use of the methodology is demonstrated with a case study of the 2020 Glass Fire in California, USA. The results from TDA showed a slight reduction in speeds and flows on US Highway 101 during the evacuation scenario, compared with the routine scenario. Moreover, background traffic has been shown to play a key role in the 2020 Glass Fire compared with previous wildfire evacuation scenarios (e.g., the 2019 Kincade fire). The case study showed that the methodology implemented in the TDA can be used to understand traffic evacuation dynamics in wildfire scenarios and to validate evacuation models.

Numerical and Visual Representations of Uncertainty Lead to Different Patterns of Decision Making.

Although visualizations are a useful tool for helping people to understand information, they can also have unintended effects on human cognition. This is especially true for uncertain information, which is difficult for people to understand. Prior work has found that different methods of visualizing uncertain information can produce different patterns of decision making from users. However, uncertainty can also be represented via text or numerical information, and few studies have systematically compared these types of representations to visualizations of uncertainty. We present two experiments that compared visual representations of risk (icon arrays) to numerical representations (natural frequencies) in a wildfire evacuation task. Like prior studies, we found that different types of visual cues led to different patterns of decision making. In addition, our comparison of visual and numerical representations of risk found that people were more likely to evacuate when they saw visualizations than when they saw numerical representations. These experiments reinforce the idea that design choices are not neutral: seemingly minor differences in how information is represented can have important impacts on human risk perception and decision making.

Modeling roadway temperatures for wildfire evacuation and assessment of pavement damage

Wildfires can cause enormous loss of assets and human lives, and thus, timely evacuation from the wildfire zone is critical to saving lives. Understanding evacuation route conditions, including traffic and temperature data, is imperative for safe evacuation. This study modeled the temperature conditions of an evacuation roadway within a wildfire zone, using the 2018 Camp Fire in Butte County, California as an experiment. The numerical modeling program, FlamMap, was used in this study to analyze the temperature conditions of an evacuation route. The results show that the temperature of the evacuation roadway increased quickly in a matter of a few hours. The change of roadways temperatures ranged from 3°C to 297°C within five hours after ignition, depending on the specific location along the roadway and other conditions. The results from this study can be used to understand temperature conditions for effective evacuation and to estimate roadway damage as well.

O explorador: desenvolvimento de um jogo digital inclusivo

Aplicativos estão em todos os lugares e ganham cada vez mais espaço na vida das pessoas. Junto com o crescimento da tecnologia, as relações sociodigitais também crescem, como esferas e pontes de integração e desenvolvimento humano. O presente projeto tem como objetivo propor um jogo acessível ao grupo de pessoas com deficiência visual, visando incluí-los socialmente e oferecer, como em qualquer outro jogo, diversão e lazer. Para isso, foram realizadas várias pesquisas sobre o tema da deficiência, inclusão e restrição da participação social, bem como pesquisas sobre o desenvolvimento de jogos, recursos de acessibilidade e meios de inclusão em jogos. Aqui apresentamos um jogo criado especificamente para pessoas cegas, demonstrando as funcionalidades do mesmo e suas potencialidades.