Wet Summer Research Articles

Multitemporal UAV lidar detects seasonal heave and subsidence on palsas

Abstract. In the context of the accelerating impacts of climate change on permafrost landscapes, we use an uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) carrying a lidar scanner to investigate seasonal terrain changes in palsas – mounds of frozen peat – since other remote sensing methods have struggled to capture the full dynamics of these landforms. We investigated two palsas (4–5 m in height) in Sweden's largest palsa mire complex, where we performed five field campaigns between September 2022 and September 2023 to track intra-annual frost heave and thaw subsidence. Our approach allowed us to create digital terrain models (DTMs) from high-density point clouds (> 1000 points m−2) and analyze elevation changes over time. We found that both palsas heaved on average 0.15 m (and up to 0.30 m) from September to April and subsided back to their height from the previous year, or slightly below, over the course of the following summer. At one of the palsas, we observed a notable lateral degradation hotspot over the study period in a 225 m2 area, with 0.5–1.9 m height loss, likely initiated during the preceding warm and wet summer months. Part of this degradation occurred between September 2022 and April 2023, suggesting that the degradation of these palsas is not limited to the summer months. Our study shows the substantial value of using UAV lidar for understanding how permafrost areas are changing. It facilitates tracking the ongoing effects of climate change and highlights palsa dynamics that would not be captured by annual measurements alone.

Terrestrial moisture sources dominate summer precipitation fluctuations in Northwest China

Abstract Northwest China (NWC), is characterized by its arid and semi-arid environment, and exhibits high sensitivity to precipitation variations. Recent research indicates a wetting tendency over NWC, yet quantifying its moisture source remains challenging. Here, employing a 40 year simulation with Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 (CAM5.1) coupled to an atmospheric water tracer algorithm, we ascertain that the dominant source of summer moisture over NWC are from terrestrial sources (82% of vapor and 77% of precipitation), i.e. from local evaporation, North Asia (NA), Europe (EUP), the southern Tibetan Plateau (STP), and southeastern China (SEC), rather than oceanic sources. Favorable synoptic patterns over NWC enhance the precipitation-conversion efficiency from the southeasterly airflow transport (STP and SEC) compared to northwesterly airflow (NA and EUP). We also find that the fluctuations in precipitation over NWC, manifesting as alternating dry and wet summers, are primarily driven by increased moisture contributions from direct inputs from NA and re-evaporation transport from STP. Our study indicates that moisture variability in inland is predominantly driven by nearby terrestrial sources and underscores the complex mechanisms of terrestrial moisture transport.

A Stepwise‐Clustered Precipitation Downscaling Method for Ensemble Climatic Projections in the Mediterranean Region

ABSTRACTPrecipitation changes dynamically in the Mediterranean region. Therefore, the projection of future precipitation and its historical distribution mechanism is essential for climate mitigation and adaptation. In this study, a stepwise clustered precipitation downscaling method (SCPD) was developed and adopted in the Mediterranean region to reveal the inherent variation rules and trends over the future 100 years under two SSP scenarios. A cutting and merging multivariate process is introduced to build a cluster tree for supporting further downscaling and projecting steps. The ensemble average from the global climate model (GCM) dataset is used for precipitation projections. The precipitation performance of SCPD, evaluated by R2, is fairly decent. The precipitation projections vary with the original rainfall patterns over the gauge stations. Dry places tend to become comparably drier in the future. Precipitation in the northern Mediterranean region shows a drier winter–spring and wetter summer–autumn. Opposite trends emerged in the southern part, with increasing winter precipitation and decreasing summer rainfall. The rising carbon dioxide concentration will further intensify the decrease in rainfall. However, the centres of these two EOFs are not identical. The contributions of NAO (positive) and Niño 3.4 (negative) to PC1 are relatively high. Accordingly, the strongest positive correlation with PC2 is SCAND, as well as negative correlations with AO, NAO and EAWR. Positive anomaly precipitation is attributed to PC1, whereas PC2 is responsible for most of the negative variance precipitation.

Ecological processes shaping highly connected bacterial communities along strong environmental gradients.

Along the river-sea continuum, microorganisms are directionally dispersed by water flow while being exposed to strong environmental gradients. To compare the two assembly mechanisms that may strongly and differently influence metacommunity dynamics, namely homogenizing dispersal and heterogeneous selection, we characterized the total (16S rRNA gene) and putatively active (16S rRNA transcript) bacterial communities in the Pearl River-South China Sea Continuum, during the wet (summer) and dry (winter) seasons using high-throughput sequencing. Moreover, well-defined sampling was conducted by including freshwater, oligohaline, mesohaline, polyhaline, and marine habitats. We found that heterogeneous selection exceeded homogenizing dispersal in both the total and active fractions of bacterial communities in two seasons. However, homogeneous selection was prevalent (the dominant except in active bacterial communities during summer), which was primarily due to the bacterial communities' tremendous diversity (associated with high rarity) and our specific sampling design. In either summer or winter seasons, homogeneous and heterogeneous selection showed higher relative importance in total and active communities, respectively, implying that the active bacteria were more responsive to environmental gradients than were the total bacteria. In summary, our findings provide insight into the assembly of bacterial communities in natural ecosystems with high spatial connectivity and environmental heterogeneity.

Anomalous wet summers and rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations increase the CO2 sink in a poorly drained forest on permafrost

At the northern high latitudes, rapid warming, associated changes in the hydrological cycle, and rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations, [CO2], are observed at present. Under rapid environmental changes, it is important to understand the current and future trajectories of the CO2 budget in high-latitude ecosystems. In this study, we present the importance of anomalous wet conditions and rising [CO2] on the long-term CO2 budget based on two decades (2003-2022) of quasicontinuous measurements of CO2 flux at a poorly drained black spruce forest on permafrost peat in interior Alaska. The long-term CO2 budget for the black spruce forest was a small sink of -53 ± 63 g C m-2 y-1. The CO2 sink increased from 49 g C m-2 y-1 for the first decade to 58 g C m-2 y-1 for the second decade. The increased CO2 sink was attributed to an 11.3% increase in gross primary productivity (GPP) among which 9% increase in GPP was explained by a recent increase in precipitation. Furthermore, a 3% increase in GPP in response to a 37-ppm increase in [CO2] was estimated from the data-model fusion. Our study shows that understanding the coupling between hydrological and carbon cycles and the CO2 fertilization effect is important for understanding the current and future carbon budgets of high-latitude ecosystems in permafrost regions.

Evaluation of gridded precipitation datasets in mountainous terrains of Northwestern Mexico

Study regionThe complex mountainous terrains of the Sierra Madre Occidental in northwestern Mexico. Study focusAcquiring high-resolution precipitation data in regions with limited conventional rain gauge coverage poses significant challenges. Gridded precipitation (GP) datasets, including gauge-based, satellite, and reanalysis products, provide a potential solution, but their reliability in areas with complex terrain and intricate precipitation patterns remains uncertain. This study comprehensively evaluates the performance of four GP datasets—AORC, CHIRPS, Daymet, and ERA5—in estimating precipitation. The evaluation was conducted at a daily, monthly, and seasonal timescale, further analyzing extreme precipitation, the influence of elevation, and spatial averaging across hydrologic basins, using as reference the NERN rain gauge data from 2002 to 2004. New hydrological insights for the regionResults indicate that Daymet and AORC are the most accurate GP datasets for daily and monthly timescales, respectively. All datasets improve in accuracy over longer timescales but face challenges during the wet summer monsoon months and extreme events, with Daymet performing relatively better. Terrain elevation had a minimal impact on overall dataset accuracy, though a slight improvement in precipitation detection was noted as elevation increased. This work provides valuable insights into the strengths and limitations of GP datasets in regions with complex terrain and orographically-forced convective precipitation, offering practical outcomes for climate and hydrologic studies in similar regions.

Impact of climate on varicella distribution in Bulgaria (2009-2018).

Temperature is the most important environmental variable associated with the varicella frequency across the world. The present study compares the incidence of varicella in the districts of Bulgaria against some climatic factors and tries to find environmental variables which account for the differences in the varicella distribution observed among the Bulgarian districts. The 28 Bulgarian districts were used as units of observation and their average 10-year varicella incidence (2009-2018) was tested for correlation with the standard bioclimatic variables of WorldClim, version 2. The WorldClim estimates for the annual mean temperature, the maximal temperature of the warmest month, the minimal temperature of the coldest month, the mean temperature of the coldest quarter, and the solar radiation inversely and not significantly correlated with the average 10-year varicella frequency. The precipitation of the warmest quarter and the wind speed correlated positively and also not significantly. Only the mean temperature of the driest quarter correlates significantly with the incidence at district level (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient of -0.45, p = 0.02). The mean of average 10-year varicella incidence rates among districts with driest quarter during the winter (January, February, March) was 387.6 ± 114.1, while among districts with driest quarter during the summer/autumn (July, August, September or August, September, October) 283.3 ± 102.1 (p = 0.02, ANOVA test). Dry winter and/or wet summer appear as significant determinants for the fluctuant spread of varicella infection in Bulgaria.

Control of landscape position on organic matter decomposition via soil moisture during a wet summer

Sustainable cropland management requires preservation of soil organic matter (SOM). In spite of in depth understanding gained from ample field and laboratory studies, we have a poor understanding of landscape scale spatial variation of fresh organic matter (OM) decomposition and its conversion into soil organic carbon (SOC). Particularly, local topographic position may be expected to co-control these processes via soil hydrology. In this study, we sought to identify if such control is significant by setting up a field experiment with two contrasting positions across 10 gently sloping cropland fields covering three different soil texture groups, i.e. loamy sand, (sandy) loam and silt loam. We wanted to link OM decomposition to within-field differences in soil moisture, whilst keeping variation in other soil and management factors minimal. Specifically, mesocosms with 13C enriched ryegrass (the OM source) were incorporated in the fields for ten weeks and afterwards, soil was separated into > 500 µm, 53 – 500 µm and < 53 µm sized fractions. Overall, we found that lower located positions were wetter than higher positions with average differences of 11 %, 20 % and 16 % in water-filled pore space for the loamy sand, (sandy) loam and silt loam soil, respectively. Mineralization of added OM was surprisingly independent of landscape position, even though moisture conditions appeared wetter than optimal at the low but not at the high landscape positions. Remaining ryegrass residues > 500 µm did follow local topography-driven gradients in soil moisture with higher amounts in low landscape positions. In other words, drier conditions at high landscape positions improved coarse OM decomposition, with consequently more ryegrass-carbon (C) ending up in finer soil fractions (< 500 µm). Additionally, soil texture affected decomposition of the smallest fraction (< 53 µm) with a stabilizing effect for finer-textured (silt loam) soils. We conclude that, despite significant contrasts in moisture conditions between landscape positions, within-field spatial variability of OM mineralization was overall limited during the observed wet summer period. Nevertheless, landscape position affected the quality of remnant unmineralized C, with relatively more conversion of freshly added OM into OM associated with silt and clay at the drier higher positions, potentially improving the long-term stability of SOM. Likewise observations under different weather conditions are needed to evaluate the necessity of precise modelling of local soil hydrology for predicting SOC stock evolution on the landscape scale.

Mean flow and eddy summer moisture transport over East Asia in reanalysis data and a regional climate simulation

Understanding the impact of atmospheric variability on climatological mean moisture transport is crucial because moisture transport determines continental water availability as well as convective organization and resulting precipitation. Here, we analyze the mean flow and eddy components of summer moisture transport in the downwind of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), a region that is characterized by interactions between monsoon systems, extratropical circulation, and mountainous weather systems. Using 40 years of ERA5 reanalysis data and a regional WRF simulation, we determine the absolute and relative contributions of mean flow and eddy moisture transport from multi-daily to sub-daily scales. We also link these components to large-scale circulation indices, precipitation, evaporation, and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). The results show that the largest contributions of eddies to the climatological mean moisture transport are found in the immediate downwind region of the TP. Half of the total eddy transport downwind of the TP is due to multi-daily eddy transport and the other half is due to daily to sub-daily eddy transport. Regional precipitation anomalies are dominated by the mean flow component of southerly moisture influxes which in turn are positively correlated with different South Asian summer monsoon indices and negatively correlated with the West Northern Pacific monsoon index. The eddy transport from the south is positively correlated with a lower jet latitude but does not show any significant correlations with precipitation or MCS activity, likely due to the dominant role of the mean flow moisture transport. While the relative contributions of eddies to the climatological mean moisture transport are similar in ERA5 and WRF, the correlations between moisture transport components and large-scale circulation indices are generally weaker in WRF. This suggests that the dynamical downscaling does not significantly change the role of eddy moisture transport averaged for the region, but it resolves processes that decouple the moisture transport from its large-scale forcing.

Elucidating the impact of environmental factors on the growth of Colletotrichum coccodes strains isolated from potato tubers in Great Britain

Black dot and silver scurf caused by Colletotrichum coccodes and Helminthosporium solani, respectively, are tuber blemish diseases affecting quality in the fresh and pre-pack potato industry. In the last 20 years, the importance of high-quality tuber appearance has increased considerably due to the growing demand for washed and pre-packed potatoes in the UK. Changing climate characterised by rising temperatures and wetter summers is a threat as this will favour the development of pathogens such as C. coccodes in the soil increasing the risk of food spoilage. Moreover, both diseases can develop not only in the field but also after harvest, with postharvest storage temperatures being a crucial factor in controlling fungal growth. Furthermore, anecdotal evidence showed differences on the aggressiveness of black dot depending on its origin (i.e. England and Scotland) on potato tubers. Silver scurf and black dot are difficult to differentiate as they present similar phenotypes characterised by silvery lesions making it challenging for managers to take the necessary corrective action during storage. Hence, the aim of this study was to give a general insight into the ecological conditions affecting the establishment of the causal agent of potato black dot in the field, and black dot and silver scurf during the supply chain. Therefore, invitro experiments were designed to study the growth rate and lag times simulating both scenarios respectively: on soil extract agar (SEA) media at different temperatures (4, 11, 15 °C) and matric potentials (control [unmodified] and − 1.4 MPa [modified]); and on natural potato dextrose agar (NPDA) for different temperatures (4, 11, 15 and 20 °C) at 99 % relative humidity (RH) for 25 days. When simulating the field environment, drier conditions (matric potential = −1.4 MPa) reduced fungal growth for both isolates by 0.1 cm day−1 at the temperature of 15 °C, suggesting temperature as the main limiting factor for the growth of C. coccodes in the soil. The causal agent of black dot exhibited a faster growth rate under retailer-like conditions (i.e., 15 °C) compared to H. solani. Understanding the environmental influence on both the pathogen and the crop is vital for proper disease management to help reduce food loss and waste.

Role of atmospheric rivers in shaping long term Arctic moisture variability

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) reaching high-latitudes in summer contribute to the majority of climatological poleward water vapor transport into the Arctic. This transport has exhibited long term changes over the past decades, which cannot be entirely explained by anthropogenic forcing according to ensemble model responses. Here, through observational analyses and model experiments in which winds are adjusted to match observations, we demonstrate that low-frequency, large-scale circulation changes in the Arctic play a decisive role in regulating AR activity and thus inducing the recent upsurge of this activity in the region. It is estimated that the trend in summertime AR activity may contribute to 36% of the increasing trend of atmospheric summer moisture over the entire Arctic since 1979 and account for over half of the humidity trends in certain areas experiencing significant recent warming, such as western Greenland, northern Europe, and eastern Siberia. This indicates that AR activity, mostly driven by strong synoptic weather systems often regarded as stochastic, may serve as a vital mechanism in regulating long term moisture variability in the Arctic.

600 years of wine must quality and April to August temperatures in western Europe 1420–2019

Abstract. This study investigates the validity of wine must quality as an April-to-August temperature proxy between 1420 and 2019 based on expert ratings and quality measurements from Germany, Luxembourg, eastern France, and the Swiss Plateau. This is highly relevant as uncertainties remain on past climate variations during this period. The evidence was reviewed according to the best practice of historical climatology. Expert ratings tended to agree with Oechsle density measurements that gradually replaced them from the 1840s. A statistical model calibrated to predict wine must quality from climate data explains 75 % of the variance, underlining the potential value of wine must quality as a climate proxy. Premium crops were collected in years of early harvest involving high insolation during maturation, while poor crops resulted from very late harvests in cold and wet summers. An analysis of daily weather types for high- and low-quality years after 1763 shows marked differences. On a decadal timescale, the average quality was highest from 1470 to 1479, from 1536 to 1545, and from 1945 to 1954. Poor crops were collected in periods with prevailing cold and wet summers such as 1453 to 1466, 1485 to 1494, 1585 to 1614, 1685 to 1703, 1812 to 1821, and 1876 to 1936. In the period of enhanced warming after 1990, high quality became the rule.

Climate-Driven Increases in Source Water Natural Organic Matter: Implications for the Sustainability of Drinking Water Treatment.

This study presents an updated analysis spanning over two decades (1999-2023) of climate, water quality, and operational data from two drinking water facilities in Atlantic Canada that previously experienced gradual increases in the natural organic matter (NOM) concentration and brownification. The goal was to assess the impact of recent extreme weather events on acute NOM concentration increases and drinking water treatment processes. In 2023, a dry spring combined with a warm and wet summer caused NOM in the water supplies to increase by >67% (as measured by color). To mitigate increased NOM concentration, the alum dose nearly doubled in 2023 compared to that in 2022. Disinfection byproducts were elevated following the event but remained within the compliance levels. From 1999 to 2023, the two plants responded to gradual climate change impacts and brownification, with alum dose increases of between 4.1 and 8.3 times. Equivalent CO2 emissions were estimated for alum usage, which increased by 3 to 7-fold in 2023 compared to when the plants were commissioned decades prior. The plants were not only adversely impacted by climate change but also contributed to the global CO2 burden. Thus, a paradigm shift toward sustainable alternatives for NOM removal is required in the water sector, and climate change adaptation and mitigation principles are urgently needed.

On the characterization of Cloud occurrence and its impact on solar radiation in Mbour, Senegal

The objective of this study is to evaluate the clouds seasonal occurrence characteristics, and to estimate their impact on solar radiation in Mbour, Senegal, West Africa. Here, we use datasets from various sources including: i) observations from the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System satellite sensors, ii) in situ shortwave radiation measurement obtained from the Mbour station, and iii) the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data. Results show a marked seasonality, associated with high spatial variation in terms of cloud occurrence over Senegal. The maximum cloud occurrences are observed during the wet summer season (June–October), whilst the minimum cloud occurrences are recorded during the long-dry season from November to May. During the monsoon season the cloud activity becomes more intense with a total cloud cover of about 80%, a cloud optical depth of around 7, and a high convective activity illustrated by a low OLR (below 240 W/m2). Likewise, across Senegal a strong north-south gradient of the cloud characteristics is observed. Based on quantitative comparison between cloud occurrence and radiation measurement, results show an important seasonal impact on available solar potential in Mbour. Conversely to the cloud occurrence, the maximum of both direct normal and global solar potentials is recorded during the dry season, coinciding with the period with clean sky. An investigation of the cloud influence on solar radiation on selected study cases indicates a decrease of 60% (80%) for the total (direct normal) radiation during the peak of the summer monsoon season.

Analyzing the Contribution of Moisture Sources to Precipitation Changes Under 1.5/2.0°C Stabilized Warming Scenarios: A Study Over Northwest China

AbstractChanges in precipitation and its causes under future warming scenarios in Northwest China are of great concern. Based on the dynamical downscaling results of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), this study quantitatively identified the contribution of local evaporation and external moisture transport to future precipitation changes in western and eastern Northwest China (WNWC and ENWC) by calculating the precipitation recycling ratio (PRR). The results showed that the WRF could reasonably reproduce the observed spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation and evaporation during the historical reference period of 1985–2014. Under the 1.5 and 2.0°C stabilized warming scenarios from 2071 to 2100, there is a stronger precipitation growth in WNWC than in ENWC, and the PRR generally increases in WNWC and decreases in ENWC. Further analysis indicates that external moisture transport is the dominant contributor to the increased precipitation in all cases with its contribution exceeding 70%, while the difference of precipitation growth in two sub‐regions arises from the summer moisture transport at the southern boundary as the inflow in WNWC and outflow in ENWC. Compared to the negligible contribution of evaporation in ENWC (less than 7%), evaporation contributes more than 23% to the precipitation increase in WNWC under future warming scenarios, which may be related to the strong land‐atmosphere coupling there. Furthermore, an additional warming of 0.5°C leads to an increase in precipitation for both sub‐regions, which is mainly due to the contribution of external moisture transport.

Anthropogenic influences on the extremely dry and hot summer of 2020 in Southern China and projected changes in the likelihood of the event

During summer 2020, Southern China experienced an extremely dry and hot summer, which was identified as one of the top ten domestic weather and climate extreme events in 2020 by China Meteorological Administration. Summer mean precipitation, surface air temperature (TAS), and number of hot days (NHD) were about 25% dryer, 1.5 °C warmer, and 11 days larger than the 1981–2010 climatologies. These are the 4th largest precipitation deficit, the highest TAS, and the 2nd highest NHD in the 1961–2020 record. The large-scale circulation anomalies over the West Pacific increased the likelihood of the extreme hot and dry summer. Anthropogenic influences on this extreme summerwere investigated using 525-member ensembles of the atmosphere-only HadGEM3-GA6 model and the multi-model ensembles from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Anthropogenic forcings doubled (increased by 27%) the probability of precipitation deficits, and increased occurrence more than 106 times for both TAS anomaly (50 times probability higher) and NHD anomaly (6 times probability higher) in HadGEM-GA6 (CMIP6). That means that the 2020-like TAS and NHD anomalies would not occur without anthropogenic forcings, and there is weak evidence that human influences decrease rainfall over Southern China. However, the precipitation deficit increased the likelihood of exceeding the observed thresholds for both TAS and NHD by about 17 (4) and 9 (1) times in HadGEM3-GA6 (CMIP6), respectively. Under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios in the future, 2020-like hot but wet extreme summer increases in magnitude and frequency, while the frequency of dry summer declines.

An improved crop calendar model for winter wheat incorporating vernalization and winter survival to project changes in phenology

Crop phenology and associated crop calendars are necessary for designing breeding goals and for developing effective management practices. Winter wheat is a representative biennial, the cultivation schedule of which is constrained by winter climate conditions, particularly the processes of vernalization and winter survival. Here, we present improvements to a rule-based crop calendar model by incorporating these factors so that it can be used to accurately estimate the phenological events of winter wheat from daily meteorological data. We tested the improved model in Hokkaido, the northernmost Japanese island, which is characterized by seasonal snow cover and a wet summer. The results confirmed that implementing these factors contributed to accurate estimates of peak occurrence dates of winter wheat phenological events. Furthermore, we applied the improved model to simulate wheat phenology under 2 K and 4 K warmer scenarios. The results showed a delayed sowing period up to approximately one month and slight advancements in both flowering and harvesting, leading to a shorter growth period. While this shortened period may be largely compensated by a decrease in the snow-covered period, the shifts in the vegetative and reproductive phases may modify sink-source balance of wheat. We also assessed the risks of pollination failure and preharvest sprouting, both of which are associated with the timing of precipitation, based on the number of rainy days around flowering, and the incidence of precipitation over two consecutive days around the time of harvesting. Our simulations suggested increased risk of pollination failure and reduced risk of preharvest sprouting, leading to an increase in the probability of crop failure. These findings underscore the importance of implementing adaptation measures to mitigate precipitation-related risk under future climates. Further, the findings provide valuable insights for winter wheat breeders and agronomists, thereby facilitating crop production adaptation.

The Physiological Adjustments of Two Xerophytic Shrubs to Long-Term Summer Drought

Adaptive characteristics of plants, such as those associated with photosynthesis and resource use efficiency, are usually affected by synthesis costs and resource availability. The impact of extreme climate events such as long-term drought on plant physiological functions needs to be examined, particularly as it concerns the internal management of water and nitrogen (N) resources. In this study, we evaluated the resource management strategies for water and N by xerophytic shrubs, Artemisia ordosica and Salix psammophila, under extreme summer drought. This was carried out by comparing the plants’ physiological status during periods of wet and dry summer conditions in 2019 and 2021. Compared with the wet period, A. ordosica and S. psammophila both decreased their light-saturated net carbon (C) assimilation rate (Asat), stomatal conductance (gs), transpiration rate (E), leaf N content per leaf area (Narea), and photosynthetic N use efficiency (PNUE) during the summer drought. Whether in wet or dry summers, the gas-exchange parameters and PNUE of A. ordosica were generally greater than those associated with S. psammophila. The instantaneous water use efficiency (IWUE) response to drought varied with species. As a drought-tolerant species, the A. ordosica shrubs increased their IWUE during drought, whereas the S. psammophila shrubs (less drought-tolerant) decreased theirs. The divergent responses to drought by the two species were largely related to differences in the sensitivity of gs, and as a result, E. Compared with A. ordosica, S. psammophila’s inferior plasticity regarding gs response affected its ability to conserve water during drought. Our research illustrates the need for assessing plasticity in gs when addressing plant adaptation to long-term drought. A high dry-season IWUE in xerophytic shrubs can benefit the plants by augmenting their C gain.

Climate- and scale-dependent sex ratio in threatened Araucaria forests

Male and female dioecious trees often differ in their sensitivity to environmental stress, resulting in unbalanced sex ratios that can affect forest regeneration. Dioecious species are thus especially vulnerable to climate change, which can intensify their sexual bias. We investigated the sex ratio in endangered pehuén (Araucaria araucana) forests to determine whether there is an imbalance in ratio at different spatial scales, and if so, whether this is climate-dependent. To assess deviations in sex ratios on local and regional scales, we quantified the proportion of males along 37 transects within 11 patches in two populations. To assess the sex–climate relationship, we used WorldClim data; for the biogeographic scale, we added published sex ratio information from other populations. We found a bias towards males, both locally and regionally. On a local scale, this bias was related to heterogeneous temperature conditions, especially in patches with particularly wet or hot summers. On a biogeographic scale, this bias increased in warmer and humid conditions. The male bias we found implies a direct reduction in the effective size of these already threatened forests. Considering climate change projections for Patagonia, predicting an increase in temperatures and their anomalies, our results suggest that males would be less affected than females; this points to an intensification of the male bias, and thus to increased vulnerability of these already endangered pehuén forests. This study provides evidence of climate-dependent sex bias in threatened dioecious forests, and discusses its importance in the context of climate change.

Role of the Indian Ocean basin mode in driving the interdecadal variations of summer precipitation over the East Asian monsoon boundary zone

Abstract. Based on long-term observational and reanalysis datasets from 1901 through 2014, this study investigates the characteristics and physical causes of the interdecadal variations in the summer precipitation over the East Asian monsoon boundary zone (EAMBZ), which is a peculiar domain defined from the perspective of the interplay between climatic systems (i.e., mid-latitude westerly and East Asian summer monsoon). Observational evidence reveals that, similarly to previous studies, the EAMBZ precipitation featured prominent interdecadal fluctuations, e.g., with dry summers during the periods preceding 1927, 1939–1945, 1968–1982, and 1998–2010 and wet summers during the periods of 1928–1938, 1946–1967, and 2011 onwards. Further analyses identify that, amongst the major interdecadal oceanic forcings (e.g., Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and Pacific decadal oscillation), the Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) is a significant oceanic forcing responsible for the interdecadal variations of the EAMBZ precipitation, playing an independent and critical modulation role. When the cold phase of the IOBM occurs, an anomalous cyclonic circulation is excited around the northeast corner of the tropical Indian Ocean, which further induces a north-low–south-high meridional seesaw pattern over the Northeast China–subtropical western Pacific (SWP) sector. Such seesaw pattern is conducive to the enhanced EAMBZ precipitation by linking favorable environments for the transportation of water vapor from the SWP and the convergence over the EAMBZ at interdecadal timescales. For this reason, a physical–empirical model for the EAMBZ precipitation is developed in terms of the IOBM cooling. Despite the fact that the extreme summer EAMBZ precipitation cannot be captured by this model, it can still well capture its interdecadal fluctuations and reflect their steady relationship. The key physical pathway connecting the IOBM cooling with the interdecadal variations of the summer EAMBZ precipitation is supported by the numerical results based on the large ensemble experiment and the Indian Ocean pacemaker experiment. Our findings may provide new insights into the understanding of the causes of the interdecadal variations in the summer EAMBZ precipitation, which may favor the long-term policy decision-making for the local hydrometeorological planning.