Chloride ion erosion poses a major threat to the durability of concrete structures in coastal environments, particularly in tidal zones with periodic seawater exposure. This study developed a predictive model based on Fick's second law, utilizing data from over 20 coastal structures across six countries. The model, grounded in the principle of equivalent free chloride ion concentration at a certain depth after a given exposure time, estimates the number of dry-wet cycles required in accelerated laboratory testing to simulate real-world conditions. It has been validated using data from actual marine structures. Key environmental factors such as temperature and humidity, along with regional climate differences, are incorporated to predict the relative deterioration rates of concrete in various marine environments. Additionally, an accelerated indoor dry-wet cycle test was designed based on the theory of environmental similarity, tracking the performance evolution of concrete. The model was verified through experiments, showing that 30 indoor dry-wet cycles correspond to 79 years of exposure in a coastal environment. The physical property changes observed in the accelerated tests further confirmed the model’s reliability and accuracy. This research provides critical insights into the impact of environmental factors on concrete degradation and offers a scientific basis for the application of accelerated laboratory testing.