Western North Pacific Anomalous Anticyclone Research Articles

Seasonal Reversal of ENSO Impacts on SST in the East China Sea–Kuroshio Region

Abstract Sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the East China Sea–Kuroshio (EK) region has important implications for the surrounding weather, climate, and marine ecology. The year-to-year variations of the EK SST are expectedly linked to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the predominant predictability source of seasonal-to-interannual climate variability. Surprisingly, no significant SST signal is observed in the EK region when focusing on the ENSO autumn–winter season with the persistent and pronounced SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific. We find that a remarkable seasonal reversal appears in the ENSO–EK SST connection, shifting from a negative relationship in autumn [Aug(0)–Oct(0)] to a positive relationship in winter [Dec(0)–Feb(1)]. This reversal is mainly attributed to the seasonally varying ENSO-associated western North Pacific (WNP) atmospheric circulation patterns. During ENSO autumns, the anomalous WNP anticyclone is confined south of 20°N, which is accompanied with cyclonic circulation anomalies in the EK region. The associated anomalous northerly wind tends to enhance the background northerly wind, thereby facilitating the local SST cooling mainly via the wind–evaporation–SST effect. In the subsequent winter, the ENSO-related WNP anticyclonic anomalies intensify and extend toward the EK region. Consequently, the weakened background northerly wind induced by southerly wind anomalies leads to the increase of downward latent and sensible heat flux in the EK region, fostering the local SST warming. The observed seasonal reversal of ENSO impacts can be evidenced by the tropical Pacific pacemaker experiments, emphasizing the importance of seasonally modulated ENSO teleconnection and holding implications for the local SST climate prediction.

Analysis and comparison of water vapor transport features and circulation anomalies during the super-strong Meiyu period of 2020 and 1998*

2020 and 1998 are the strongest Meiyu years in recent decades. The characteristics of the super-strong Meiyu precipitation and water vapor sources in 2020 and 1998 were compared, and the atmospheric circulation anomalies and the forcing factor SST were examined. (1) In 2020, the Meiyu duration, accumulated precipitation, and number of rainstorm days were greater than in 1998, and the highest since 1961. The Meiyu period in 2020 experienced 11 rainstorm processes. In 1998, a typical “second Meiyu” phenomenon occurred, and the area of heavy rainfall in 1998 was located further southward than that in 2020 (2) The contribution of the Bay of Bengal-South China Sea (BOB-SCS) to the total supply of water vapor in 2020 and 1998 was 43.0% and 42.0%, respectively, i.e., much higher than that of the climatological mean (25.5%). In 2020, the sources that provide most water vapor were the BOB, SCS, and central Pacific Ocean, while in 1998 were the Arabian Sea, BOB, and the western Pacific Ocean. (3) During the Meiyu period in 2020 and 1998, the position of atmospheric circulation pattern “two ridges and one trough” are different. Analysis of the vertical structure revealed that the specific humidity intensity above the area of heavy rainfall in 1998 was weaker than that in 2020, and the low-level convergence zone was further south and not as strong as in 2020. The positions of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) in 1998 were both further south than those in 2020, which resulted in the more southerly locations of the southwesterly jet stream and rain belt. It should be pointed out that, the important contributions of the SST anomalies in the equatorial central eastern Pacific and the tropical Indian Ocean to the anomalous WNPAC in 1998 and 2020, respectively.

Role of SST in Seasonal Western North Pacific Anomalous Anticyclone: Insights From AMIP Simulations in CMIP6

AbstractThe western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) significantly influences the East Asian climate and is modulated by tropical sea surface temperature (SST). This study uses 142 AMIP simulations from 33 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models to quantify the contributions of SST to the interannual variability of the WNPAC. SST forcing accounts for 66%, 77%, and 49% of the WNPAC variance in winter, spring, and summer, respectively. The persistence of the WNPAC depends on the relaying effects of SST in three tropical oceans. CMIP6 models exhibit excessive precipitation response to the Pacific SST, leading to an overestimated (underestimated) Pacific (Indian Ocean) effect in modulating the summer WNPAC. Sensitivity experiments with an atmospheric model confirm the crucial role of the Pacific in regulating the WNPAC interannual variation and the contribution from the tropical North Atlantic in spring. The tropical Indian Ocean only exerts a minor impact on the WNPAC when excluding the interactions with other oceans.

Midwinter breakdown of ENSO climate impacts in East Asia

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) exhibits remarkable non-stationarity on subseasonal timescales, severely limiting climate predictability. Here, based on observational and reanalysis datasets, we identify a robust subseasonal variability in the EAWM response to ENSO, with a notable synchronous break in mid-January lasting about 10 days. We suggest that this breakdown is largely caused by interference from the abrupt phase reversal of the ENSO-driven North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which occurs about a week earlier in early January. During El Niño years, the NAO phase transition from positive to negative triggers a rapid change in the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation via the quasi-stationary Rossby wave adjustment. This results in the strengthening of the Siberian high, which produces strong northerly wind anomalies over East Asia, while the anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone weakens and shrinks to the south, eventually leading to the collapse of the teleconnection.

Large-Scale Anomalous Cyclone in the Western North Pacific

Abstract The large-scale anomalous anticyclone in the western North Pacific (WNP) has been extensively studied, but the large-scale anomalous cyclone has not received much attention in the past years. In this study, we use observational data to find that the occurrence numbers of the anomalous cyclone and anticyclone in the WNP have been roughly the same from 1979 to 2020. Our analyses indicate that the WNP anomalous cyclone is an interannual circulation anomaly in the WNP, which can persist from boreal autumn to the subsequent spring during a La Niña year and from spring to summer during a developing El Niño year. To confirm the roles of the central equatorial Pacific, tropical Indian Ocean, and central WNP sea surface temperatures, we perform a suite of model experiments using an atmospheric general circulation model. The model experiments demonstrate that central equatorial Pacific warming contributes to the WNP anomalous cyclone during a developing El Niño year. Cooling in the central equatorial Pacific or the tropical Indian Ocean alone cannot induce the WNP anomalous cyclone, but the combination of central equatorial Pacific cooling, tropical Indian Ocean cooling, and central WNP warming can jointly induce the WNP anomalous cyclone during a La Niña year. Similar to the WNP anomalous anticyclone, the WNP anomalous cyclone and its climatic impacts deserve attention.

Impact of centennial-scale solar activity reduction on the weakened Asian monsoon event at 9.2 ka BP

The weakened Asian monsoon event at 9.2 ka has been documented in many proxy-based reconstructions, but its underlying causes are uncertain. In this study, we investigated this event from a regional monsoon perspective by analysing simulations of Holocene transient solar activity forcing using the Community Earth System Model and high-resolution proxies. Our results revealed two separate periods of decreasing precipitation in the western North Pacific (WNP) and South Asian (SA) monsoons from 9.5 to 9.2 ka, each lagging behind two remarkable weakening events (0.38 and 0.21 W m−2) in solar forcing. However, there was no significant change in East Asian summer monsoon precipitation at 9.2 ka based on our experiment. Moisture budget analysis indicated that the dynamic effects term (i.e., anomalous descending motion) figured prominently in decreasing WNP and SA monsoon precipitation. Such a change was affected by an anomalous WNP anticyclone, which was maintained by the ‘wind-evaporation-sea surface temperature’ feedback during the decay phase of the centennial-scale El Niño-like event. The development of centennial El Niño-like conditions was caused by a reduction in solar irradiance. Reduced solar irradiance induced cooling over northern Australia, generating anomalous zonal sea level pressure gradients and westerlies over the tropical Pacific, ultimately resulting in the development of an El Niño-like pattern.

Weakened Relationship between the Tibetan Plateau Heat Source and the Western North Pacific Anomalous Anticyclone in Recent Summers

Abstract Numerous studies have indicated that the atmospheric heat source (AHS) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is highly correlated with the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC) in summer. However, such an interannual relationship has been weakened since the late 1990s. The present work shows that the TP AHS was significantly and positively correlated with the WNPAC during the period 1979–99 (P1), while this relationship became insignificant hereafter [2000–20 (P2)]. From an atmospheric perspective, we identify that the long-term change in the upper-level atmospheric circulation over the TP is an important cause for weakening the relationship. An obvious upper-level anticyclonic trend occurred over the northeastern TP in the past four decades, with an easterly trend on the anticyclone’s southern flank, with anomalous westerlies during P1 but anomalous easterlies during P2 over the main portion of the TP. With the anomalous upper-level westerlies in P1, abnormal high pressure induced by the TP heating (i.e., AHS) extended downstream in the upper troposphere. Subsequently, anomalous descending motions formed over the northwestern Pacific due to the eastward-extended high pressure, together with the vertical transport of negative relative vorticity, favorable for the enhancement of the WNPAC. In P2, the TP heating-induced abnormal high pressure was confined over the southern TP due to the anomalous easterlies, suppressing its downstream influence and finally breaking the connection between the TP AHS and the WNPAC. Modeling results from both linear baroclinic model (LBM) sensitivity experiments and the CESM Large Ensemble dataset further confirm the important role of the change in background circulation in weakening the relationship. Significance Statement The atmospheric heat source (AHS) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is generally believed to closely connect with the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC) during boreal summer. Previous studies have revealed that a significant interannual correlation exists between the TP AHS and the WNPAC; however, such a relationship was weakened recently, but the causes are unknown. This study highlights the important contribution from the change in background circulation to the weakened relationship. An upper-level easterly trend occurred over the TP in recent summers, under which the TP heating-induced abnormal atmospheric response was confined in the TP area, limiting the downstream influence of the TP heating and finally destroying the connection between the TP AHS and the downstream WNPAC.

Formation Mechanism of the ENSO-Independent Summer Western North Pacific Anomalous Anticyclone

Abstract The western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC) is the key circulation modulating the East Asian summer climate. In this study, the formation mechanism of the summer WNPAC that is independent of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated. Although ENSO has a significant relationship with WNPAC, except for the super El Niño years, the WNPAC index remains almost unchanged after removing ENSO’s impact, suggesting the possibility of other origins of the WNPAC apart from ENSO. An Atlantic-to-Pacific two-step mechanism is proposed for the formation of ENSO-independent summer WNPAC. In boreal spring, diabatic heating induced by the positive sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the tropical Atlantic could stimulate a stationary equivalent barotropic Rossby wave train that travels across the Eurasian continent and ends in the tropical North Pacific. At the end of the Rossby wave train, the lower-level anomalous anticyclone advects negative moist enthalpy into the equator, which suppresses the local convection over the tropical North Pacific and equatorial central Pacific, and thus triggers the lower-level equatorial easterly anomaly to its west. During boreal summer, the lower-level easterly anomaly leads to the zonal dipole SSTA pattern with a negative center in the tropical central Pacific and a positive one in the Maritime Continent. Then, this dipole SSTA pattern over the Pacific exerts a relaying effect that further reinforces and westward shifts the dipole convection anomaly pattern, generating the WNPAC as a Gill-type response. This study underpins the independent role of Atlantic oceanic forcing through the extratropical route in the formation of ENSO-independent summer WNPAC. Significance Statement By linearly removing ENSO’s impact on summer monthly sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), this study explores the sources of summer western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC) apart from ENSO. It is found that the high correlation between WNPAC and ENSO largely depends on the super El Niño events, and the origin of the ENSO-independent WNPAC is rooted in the tropical Atlantic oceanic forcing. The positive tropical Atlantic SSTAs in spring can independently induce atmospheric teleconnection from the North Atlantic to the North Pacific through the extratropical route, which triggers anomalous easterlies over the equatorial Pacific via suppressed local convection caused by the dry air advection over the North Pacific. The equatorial easterlies enhance the dipole anomalous SST and convection pattern over the Maritime Continent and tropical western/central Pacific in summer, which finally stimulates the WNPAC. The result emphasizes the independent role of tropical Atlantic SSTAs in the formation of summer WNPAC, thus providing a new perspective for the seasonal prediction of East Asian summer climate.

The Influences of Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies on the ENSO-Independent Interannual Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

Abstract As the most dominant tropical climate mode on the interannual time scale, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is suggested to significantly influence the interannual variation of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall (IEASMR). However, the leading mode of IEASMR remains almost untouched when the impacts of preceding ENSO events are linearly removed, suggesting the existence of alternative impact factors and predictability sources of IEASMR. After removing the impact of ENSO, the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over both the tropical Atlantic and extratropical North Atlantic are found to be related to IEASMR through atmospheric teleconnections. Positive SSTA over the tropical Atlantic could induce tropical diabatic heating, which triggers an equivalent barotropic Rossby wave train emanating from the Atlantic, going across the Eurasian continent, and ending with a cyclonic anomaly over northeast Asia. The tropical diabatic heating could also induce western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone via tropical routes. The dipole SSTA pattern with cooling in the west and warming in the east over the extratropical North Atlantic induces local circulation anomalies through heat flux exchange, which could further perturb a Rossby wave train with a cyclonic anomaly over northeast Asia, thus modulating IEASMR. Numerical experiments with prescribed atmospheric heating associated with Atlantic SSTAs could realistically reproduce these teleconnections toward IEASMR. By adding the predictability sources of Atlantic SSTAs, the seasonal hindcast skills of IEASMR could be significantly improved over both the tropical western North Pacific and subtropical land regions such as central China and Japan. Significance Statement The purpose of this article is to identify the alternative impact factors of the interannual variation of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall (IEASMR), after removing the impact of ENSO, considering the limited contribution of ENSO to the variances of IEASMR. Here, we find that the Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) play a considerable role in driving IEASMR. The impact of ENSO on IEASMR is mainly confined to the tropical western North Pacific, while the Atlantic SSTAs influence rainfall over subtropical East Asia and the tropical western North Pacific through both tropical and extratropical routes. The results unravel the important roles of Atlantic SSTAs in driving ENSO-independent IEASMR, which will have a large implication for the seasonal prediction of East Asian summer climate.

A Positive Low Cloud–Sea Surface Temperature Feedback in the East Asian Marginal Seas during El Niño Mature Winters and Their Following Spring

Abstract During the winter and subsequent spring of an El Niño year, the East Asian marginal sea (EAMS) exhibits positive sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) and fewer low clouds, while the western North Pacific experiences negative SSTAs. In this study, we suggest that the positive SSTAs in EAMS are maintained by a positive low cloud–SST feedback. In neutral winters and springs, the EAMS is covered by low clouds, which have a cooling effect on surface temperatures. During an El Niño year, a western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone is established, and along its northwestern flank, there are favorable conditions for convergence of moisture and weaker surface latent heat flux over the EAMS. Once a positive SSTA has been established, a further reduction of turbulent mixing results in less low cloud and enhanced solar heating of the ocean mixed layer; this reinforces and maintains both the positive SSTA and the lack of low cloud via a positive feedback mechanism. The concurrent increase of low cloud–SST feedback and anticyclone circulation strengths is evident in the coupled-model simulations from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Furthermore, sensitivity experiments, performed with the atmospheric components of Community Earth System Model (CESM2), reveal that a positive SSTA helps to maintain the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone. Four pacemaker-coupled experiments by CESM2, with sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific restored to the observational anomalies plus the model climatology and altered low cloud feedback over EAMS, suggest that the low cloud–SST feedback results in more than the maintenance of a positive SSTA over the EAMS: the positive feedback is also a previously overlooked mechanism for the maintenance of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone. Significance Statement The East Asian marginal sea (EAMS) and western North Pacific are important areas that bridge El Niño and the climate of East Asia. Unlike the cold sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) over the western North Pacific during El Niño, the positive SSTA over EAMS, which is covered by winter low cloud, has received less attention. We suggest that a “low cloud–SST” feedback—namely, one in which decreasing low-level clouds allows more sunlight to strike the ocean surface and favors higher SST—maintains the positive SSTA over EAMS. We also configure a widely used atmospheric model with a set of preset SSTA patterns that mimic different climate patterns. Our experiments with different climate patterns and CMIP6 historical runs show that the low cloud–SST feedback (through the positive SSTA) is a possible supplementary mechanism for reinforcing the WNP anomalous anticyclone.

Interannual Variability of Near‐Inertial Energy in the South China Sea and Western North Pacific

AbstractInterannual variability of surface mixed‐layer near‐inertial energy (NIE, representing the intensity of near‐inertial waves) in the South China Sea and western North Pacific (WNP) is investigated using satellite‐tracked surface drifter data set. It is found that NIE in the study region correlates negatively with El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with a correlation coefficient of R = −0.44 and a time lag of 5 months, mainly because the variation of local wind stress lags behind El Niño by 4 months. By separating summer and winter seasons, the correlation is significantly improved. The summer NIE correlates positively with El Niño (R = 0.62), since tropical cyclones over the WNP tend to be stronger and longer‐lived during the El Niño developing phase. The winter NIE correlates negatively with El Niño (R = −0.65), since the winter monsoon is weakened by the ENSO‐related WNP anomalous anticyclone. This is the first time that interannual variability of NIE is studied by direct current velocity observations.

A 10‐Year Thundersnow Climatology Over China

AbstractThundersnow is a special kind of thunderstorm that combines snowfall and lightning. A 10‐year thundersnow climatology over China was obtained based on observations during 2008–2017. Our results show that thundersnows are widely distributed in China, and most of the high‐frequency areas are located in the Tibetan Plateau and northeastern China. The average frequency of thundersnow decreases with decreasing altitude, and thundersnow usually occurs at low‐altitude stations once every 10 years. Thundersnow, which likely induces great total snowfall depths, appears mostly in spring, autumn and late winter and can occur in high‐altitude areas in summer. The blizzard probability on a thundersnow day is 12.7%. The percentage of positive cloud‐to‐ground lightning of winter thundersnow is approximately 20.7%, which is lower than those in other seasons. The negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation and anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone are favorable background conditions for thundersnow events.

Respective and Combined Impacts of North Indian Ocean and Tropical North Atlantic SST Anomalies on the Subseasonal Evolution of Anomalous Western North Pacific Anticyclones

Abstract The subseasonal variation of the anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) has important implications for East Asian summer monsoon variability. How the WNPAC evolves on the subseasonal time scale under the different configurations of tropical North Atlantic (TNA) Ocean and north Indian Ocean (NIO) SST warming is elucidated in this study. The WNPAC forced by individual TNA SST warming shows an obvious subseasonal variation with a stepwise northward movement. In contrast, the WNPAC forced by individual NIO SST warming shows a weak subseasonal variation, being nearly stabilized at around 20°N from June to August and thereby causing long-lasting and intense positive mei-yu–baiu–changma rainfall anomalies. The physical mechanism for the different subseasonal variation of WNPAC is further investigated. The TNA SST warming generates a WNPAC via a Rossby wave–induced divergence/convergence chain response. In this process, the TNA SST warming-induced suppressed convection over the western Pacific moves northward with the northward movement of climatological intertropical convergence zone and summer monsoon region, which generates a northward shift of the WNPAC. However, the NIO SST warming produces a WNPAC via a Kelvin wave–induced suppressed convection over the western Pacific Ocean. This suppressed convection is stabilized at around 20°N because of the Kelvin wave activity scope being limited within 20°N, which finally produces a nearly stationary WNPAC from June to August. In addition, under the simultaneous occurrence of the TNA and NIO SST warming, the subseasonal variation of WNPAC bears a resemblance to that for the individual NIO SST warming condition, where the TNA SST warming fails to exert its impact.

Maintenance of Western North Pacific Anomalous Anticyclone in Boreal Summer by Wind-Induced Moist Enthalpy Advection Mechanism

Abstract The western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC) is the most important interannual circulation anomaly over the western Pacific warm pool. It can persist from boreal winter to the following summer and has great impacts on the East Asian monsoon. The maintenance of the WNPAC in boreal summer was explained by Ekman divergence anomalies over the western North Pacific (WNP) induced by the equatorial easterly Kelvin waves from the tropical Indian Ocean and the Maritime Continent. In this study, we propose a new mechanism for the maintenance of the WNPAC in the season, which we refer to as the “wind-induced moist enthalpy advection” (WIMEA) mechanism. Warm anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean enhance local deep convection and thus excite atmospheric easterly Kelvin waves to the east. Climatological moist enthalpy decreases eastward over the WNP due to the local northward extension of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) with the establishment of the WNP summer monsoon. Hence, the easterly anomalies transport low moist enthalpy (dry) air westward to the WNP. The induced negative moist enthalpy advection anomalies drive downward motion anomalies and thus suppress deep convection over the WNP under the constraint of the moist static energy budget balance. This moist teleconnection mechanism does not rely on Ekman processes. Numerical experiments using a dry linear baroclinic model indicate that the WIMEA and the conventional Kelvin wave–induced Ekman divergence mechanism have nearly equal relative contributions to the maintenance of the summer WNPAC, with the former mainly driven by the enhanced convection over the tropical Indian Ocean, while the latter is driven by that over the Maritime Continent.

Comparison of East Asian Summer Monsoon Simulation between an Atmospheric Model and a Coupled Model: An Example from CAS-ESM

In this study, the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Earth System Model Version 2 (CAS-ESM2) and its atmospheric component were evaluated for the ability to simulate the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), in terms of climatology and composites in El Niño decaying years (EN) and La Niña years (LN). The results show that the model can realistically simulate the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) annual cycle, the interannual variation, the evolution process, and the prerequisites of ENSO, but the trend of developing and decaying is faster than that of the observations. With regard to the climatological mean state in the EASM, the coupled model run can largely improve the precipitation and 850 hPa wind simulated in the atmospheric model. Moreover, the coupled run can also reduce the mid-latitude bias in the atmospheric model simulation. Composite methods were then adopted to examine performance in different phases of the ENSO, from a mature winter to a decaying summer. The atmospheric model can well reproduce the Western North Pacific Anomalous Anticyclone (WNPAC)/Western North Pacific Anomalous Cyclone (WNPC) during EN/LN well, but the westerly/easterly anomalies and the associated precipitation anomalies over the equatorial Central Eastern Pacific are somewhat overestimated. Compared with the atmospheric model, these anomalies are all underestimated in the coupled model, which may be related to the ENSO-related SST bias appearing in the Eastern Indian Ocean. Due to the ENSO and ITCZ bias in the historical simulations, the simulated ENSO-related SST and the precipitation anomaly are too equator-trapped in comparison with the observations, and the cold tongue overly extends westward. This limits the ability of the model to simulate ENSO-related EASM variability. For the subseasonal simulations, though atmospheric model simulations can reproduce the westward extension of the Western Pacific subtropic high (WPSH) in EN decaying summers, the eastward retreat of the WPSH in LN is weak. The historical simulations show limited improvement, indicating that the subseasonal variation in the EASM is still a considerable challenge for current generation models.

Impact of eastern and central Pacific El Niño on lower tropospheric ozone in China

Abstract. Tropospheric ozone, as a critical atmospheric component, plays an important role in influencing radiation equilibrium and ecological health. It is affected not only by anthropogenic activities but also by natural climate variabilities. Here we examine the tropospheric ozone changes in China associated with the eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño using satellite observations from 2007 to 2017 and GEOS-Chem simulations from 1980 to 2017. GEOS-Chem reasonably reproduced the satellite-retrieved lower tropospheric ozone (LTO) changes despite a slight underestimation. In general, both types of El Niño exert negative impacts on LTO concentration in China, except for southeastern China during the pre-CP El Niño autumn and post-EP El Niño summer. Ozone budget analysis further reveals that for both events, LTO changes are dominated by the transport processes controlled by circulation patterns and the chemical processes influenced by local meteorological anomalies associated with El Niño, especially the changes in solar radiation and relative humidity. The differences between EP- and CP-induced LTO changes mostly lie in southern China. The different strengths, positions, and duration of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone induced by tropical warming are likely responsible for the different EP and CP LTO changes. During the post-EP El Niño summer, the Indian Ocean capacitor effect also plays an important role in mediating LTO changes over southern China.

Does the Antarctic Oscillation modulate tropical cyclone rapid intensification over the western North Pacific?

This study investigates the modulation of tropical cyclone (TCs) rapid intensification (RI) over the western North Pacific by the Antarctic Oscillation. There is a significant inverse relationship between basinwide RI number during July–November from 1982 to 2020 and the simultaneous Antarctic Oscillation index. During positive Antarctic Oscillation years, RI occurrence is significantly suppressed over the main RI region (10°–20° N and 125°–150° E) and slightly enhanced over the South China Sea. By contrast, during negative Antarctic Oscillation years, RI is significantly enhanced over the main RI region and slightly suppressed over the South China Sea. The Antarctic Oscillation influences western North Pacific RI occurrence mainly through modulation of the large-scale dynamic environment. During positive Antarctic Oscillation years, increases in 850–200 hPa vertical wind shear and decreases in both low-level vorticity and upper-level divergence all suppress RI occurrence over the main RI region, while thermodynamic variables (e.g. TC heat potential, maximum potential intensity and low-to-middle level relative humidity) show mostly weak changes. These changes in dynamic factors can be linked to a low-level anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone triggered by the positive phase of the Antarctic Oscillation and a low-level anomalous western North Pacific cyclone generated by a negative phase of the Antarctic Oscillation.

Termination 1 Millennial‐Scale Rainfall Events Over the Sunda Shelf

AbstractRecent paleoclimate reconstructions have suggested millennial‐scale variability in the Indo‐Pacific Warm Pool region coincident with events of the last deglaciation. Here, we present a new stalagmite oxygen isotope record from northern Borneo, which today is located near the center of the region's mean annual intertropical convergence zone. The record spans the full deglaciation, and reveals for the first time distinct oxygen isotope variations at this location connected with the Bølling‐Allerød onset and the Younger Dryas event. The full deglaciation in the Borneo stalagmite proxy reconstruction appears remarkably similar to a 20–11 ka transient simulation of rainfall over the area produced using the isotope‐enabled Community Earth System Model. In this model, periods of weakened Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation are associated with an anomalous Western North Pacific anticyclone, which is produced in boreal autumn and shifts south over Borneo during boreal winter, causing dry conditions.

Interdecadal Changes in the Relationship between Wintertime Surface Air Temperature over the Indo-China Peninsula and ENSO

Abstract Interdecadal variations of the relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indo-China Peninsula (ICP) surface air temperature (SAT) in winter are investigated in the study. Generally, there exists a positive correlation between them during 1958–2015 because the ENSO-induced anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) is conducive to pronounced temperature advection anomalies over the ICP. However, such correlation is unstable in time, having experienced a high-to-low transition around the mid-1970s and a recovery since the early 1990s. This oscillating relationship is owing to the anomalous WNPAC intensity in different decades. During the epoch of high correlation, the anomalous WNPAC and associated southwesterly winds over the ICP are stronger, which brings amounts of warm temperature advection and markedly heats the ICP. In contrast, a weaker WNPAC anomaly and insignificant ICP SAT anomalies are the circumstances for the epoch of low correlation. It is also found that substantial southwesterly wind anomalies over the ICP related to the anomalous WNPAC occur only when large sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the northwest Indian Ocean (NWIO) coincide with ENSO (viz., when the ENSO–NWIO SST connection is strong). The NWIO SST anomalies are capable of driving favorable atmospheric circulation that effectively alters ICP SAT and efficiently modulates the ENSO–ICP SAT correlation, which is further supported by numerical simulations utilizing the Community Atmospheric Model, version 4 (CAM4). This paper emphasizes the non-stationarity of the ENSO–ICP SAT relationship and also uncovers the underlying modulation factors, which has important implications for the seasonal prediction of the ICP temperature.

Roles of the North Indian Ocean SST and Tropical North Atlantic SST in the Latitudinal Extension of the Anomalous Western North Pacific Anticyclone during the El Niño Decaying Summer

AbstractThe El Niño–related anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) shows different latitudinal extensions during the El Niño decaying summer, which determines the moisture transport to different regions and leads to distinct climate impacts over East Asia. It is known that both the north Indian Ocean (NIO) sea surface temperature (SST) and the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) SST can generate a WNPAC in summer. However, the difference between the NIO SST-forced WNPAC and the TNA SST-forced WNPAC has hardly been noted before now. This study shows that the NIO SST warming makes the WNPAC contract southward, whereas the TNA SST warming makes the WNPAC extend northward. The NIO SST warming generates the WNPAC via a Kelvin wave response. Owing to the limited domain of Kelvin wave activity, the Kelvin wave–induced suppressed convection over the western Pacific is confined south of 20°N, resulting in the WNPAC being concentrated in the low latitudes. In contrast, the TNA SST warming generates the WNPAC via a Rossby wave–induced divergence/convergence chain response over the Pacific. The Rossby wave–induced suppressed convection over the central-eastern Pacific north of the equator leads to enhanced convection on its southwest side, which further generates the low-level anomalous divergent winds over the western North Pacific and suppresses convection there. In this process, the suppressed convection over the western North Pacific is pushed more northward, thus producing a WNPAC extending northward. Further study finds that there are good precursors for predicting the WNPAC latitudinal extension based on the El Niño spatial pattern and the NIO/TNA SST intensity in the previous winter and spring.