Western Mediterranean Oscillation Index Research Articles

Summer heatwaves trends and hotspots in the Barcelona Metropolitan Region (1914–2020)

AbstractDaily maximum, TX, and minimum, TN, temperatures recorded at Fabra Observatory, for the period 1914–2020 (from June to September), have permitted to identify the daytime and night time heatwaves, HWs, at the Barcelona Metropolitan Region, BMR, along 107 years. Four heatwaves indices have been computed both for maximum and minimum temperatures: the number of events per season, HWN; their maximum duration, HWD; their frequency of occurrence, HWF; and the amplitude of the hottest day event, HWA. Trends in these indices have been obtained and their statistical significance quantified by means of the Mann-Kendall test. For the whole period (1914–2020), positive significant trends have been detected for the four indices, with a marked positive trend since year 2000 for TX, and since 1985 for TN. Nevertheless, when 31-year moving windows have been analysed, both positive and negative significant trends are obtained, being remarkable the change in trend signs around 1960s. The convenience of using the four HW indices is evaluated applying a Principal Component Analysis, PCA, obtaining two principal components. Additionally, the spatial distributions of the MODIS land surface temperatures, LST, corresponding to some extreme heatwaves, permits the detection of two hotspots in the BMR, one for TX and the other for TN. It is also worth mentioning that correlations between the Western Mediterranean Oscillation index, WeMOi, and HW episodes are detected, being notable that, at the beginning of these episodes, WEMOi values are usually lower. These correlations could improve the HWs forecasting.

The Precipitation Concentration in the Cheliff Watershed, Algeria: A Critical Analysis for Sustainable Water Resource Management

In this study, a statistical analysis of historical and projected values of the annual, seasonal, and supra-seasonal precipitation concentration index (PCI) was conducted for different stations in the Cheliff watershed. Statistical methods such as breakpoint and trend analysis using Pettitt and Mann–Kendall tests were used for the PCI values of annual, monthly, and supra-seasonal precipitation data between 1950 and 2014. The PCI values varied between 14.24% and 24.86% annually, between 10.75% and 18.74% seasonally, and between 11.23% and 26.98% supra-seasonally. According to the Pettitt and Mann–Kendall tests, there was an insignificant change in precipitation distribution during the study period. Spatial analysis using the inverse distance weighting (IDW) method confirmed the minor variability in precipitation distribution in the study area. The Pearson correlation coefficient between oscillation indices and PCI values at different scales showed significant values with the Mediterranean Oscillation index (MOi), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Western Mediterranean Oscillation index (WeMOi), highlighting their potential influence on annual PCI values. For the climate projection scenarios, projected PCI values align with historical PCI values. Application of Pettitt and Mann-Kendall tests to the projected PCI series shows that there will not be a significant change in future precipitation distribution.

40 years of changes in sea surface temperature along the Western Iberian Coast

Climate change is causing mean sea surface temperatures (SST) to increase worldwide. However, this increase has not been temporally or spatially uniform, with variations observed depending both on the period considered and the geographic region. In this context, this paper aims to quantify relevant changes in SST along the Western Iberian Coast over the last four decades, through the calculation of trends and anomalies of long-term time series of in situ observations and satellite-derived data. Potential drivers of SST changes were considered using atmospheric and teleconnections time series. Changes in the seasonal cycle of SST were also evaluated.We show that SST has increased since 1982, with regional variations between 0.10 and 0.25 °C per decade, with an increase in air temperature appearing to drive the SST trends along the Iberian coast. In the near-shore area, no significant trends or changes in the seasonal cycle of SST were observed, which is likely due to a buffer effect caused by the seasonal upwelling that characterizes the region. Recent decades show a slowdown in the increase rate of SST along the Western Iberian Coast. An upwelling intensification could justify this observation, along with the effect of teleconnections on the regional climate, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation Index (WeMOI). Our results suggest that the WeMOI plays a more important role in coastal SST variability than the other teleconnections.The present study quantifies regional changes in SST and enhances knowledge of the role of ocean-atmosphere interactions in regulating climate and weather conditions. Moreover, it provides a relevant scientific context to the development of regional adaptative and mitigation actions in response to climate change.

Spatiotemporal analysis of drought occurrence in the Ouergha catchment, Morocco

<abstract> <p>Although the spatiotemporal characterization of droughts is a key step in the design and implementation of practical measures to mitigate their impacts, it is hampered by the lack of hydro-climatic data with sufficient spatial density and duration. This study aimed to assess the trends and spatial patterns of drought occurrence in the Ouergha catchment in northern Morocco, which has been identified as a hot spot for climate change and variability. The study combined data from various sources, including the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOi); Western Mediterranean Oscillation Index (WeMOi); a meteorological index (SPI), calculated using precipitation data; a hydrological index (SDI), calculated using precipitation data; and satellite images to calculate the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI) from 1984/85 to 2016/17. The results showed that the adopted statistical analyses were effective in detecting the linearity and trend of drought in the Ouergha catchment scale. The correlations between various indices were moderate to strong between NAOi and SPI, WeMoi and SPI, as well as SPI and SDI, while the Mann-Kendall tests indicate an increasing trend of drought intensity in the catchment. During dry events, vegetation cover and moisture were maintained due to the presence of dam reserves. Overall, the study provides empirical evidence that confirms the severe drought conditions experienced in the Ouergha catchment. The unique set of data adds to the growing body of knowledge about drought in the region and underscores the urgency of preserving dam resources for sustainable use during future droughts.</p> </abstract>

Long-Term Spatiotemporal Variability of Whitings in Lake Geneva from Multispectral Remote Sensing and Machine Learning

Whiting events are massive calcite precipitation events turning hardwater lake waters to a milky turquoise color. Herein, we use a multispectral remote sensing approach to describe the spatial and temporal occurrences of whitings in Lake Geneva from 2013 to 2021. Landsat-8, Sentinel-2, and Sentinel-3 sensors are combined to derive the AreaBGR index and identify whitings using appropriate filters. 95% of the detected whitings are located in the northeastern part of the lake and occur in a highly reproducible environmental setting. An extended time series of whitings in the last 60 years is reconstructed from a random forest algorithm and analyzed through a Bayesian decomposition for annual and seasonal trends. The annual number of whiting days between 1958 and 2021 does not follow any particular monotonic trend. The inter-annual changes of whiting occurrences significantly correlate to the Western Mediterranean Oscillation Index. Spring whitings have increased since 2000 and significantly follow the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index. Future climate change in the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean could induce more variable and earlier whiting events in Lake Geneva.

Long term oscillations of Mediterranean sardine and anchovy explained by the combined effect of multiple regional and global climatic indices

It is widely known that the abundance and distribution dynamics of populations of small pelagic clupeid fish, such as sardines and anchovies, are affected by large-scale climate variability, which may lead to changeovers to new regimes of small pelagics. However, long-distance climatic oscillations, such as El Niño/La Niña and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, have been little explored in the Western Mediterranean Sea. We investigated the possible effects of the South Oscillation Index (i.e. the atmospheric oscillation coupled with the El Niño/La Niña) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation on fluctuations in catches of European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) and sardine (Sardina pilchardus) in the Western Mediterranean Sea, and their association with regional climate oscillations (i.e. the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Western Mediterranean Oscillation index, and the Arctic Oscillation). The study covered two periods: (a) landings between 1950 and 2016; and (b) abundance, biomass, and physical condition (i.e., relative condition index) between 2004 and 2016. The main large-scale climatic oscillations in the region were studied using General Additive Models to investigate the relationship between a time series of species measures of European sardine and anchovy from Geographical Subarea 06. Results show that the long-term Pacific Decadal Oscillation favours sardine landings, whereas the combined effect of the Western Mediterranean Oscillation Index and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation favours anchovy. We discuss potential links between the present findings and changes in the plankton community caused by prevailing winds in the region driven by long-distance climate oscillations and their impact on the reduction in small pelagic fish populations in the study area.

Wind stilling ceased in the Iberian Peninsula since the 2000s

This study analyses quality controlled and homogenized near-surface wind speed series (SWS) at 87 meteorological stations distributed across Spain and Portugal for 1961–2019. Multidecadal variability analysis of both mean and gusts SWS confirms for the first time in the region the cessation of the stilling (decline of SWS) and a possible weak reversal phenomenon (increase in SWS) in the last decades, varying its onset from 1999 to 2018, depending on the season and variable. Different atmospheric circulation drivers are evaluated to explain the stilling and reversal phenomena. Among the chosen teleconnection indices, the Western Mediterranean Oscillation index (WeMOi) is the one that presents the highest (positive) correlation with SWS, although the correlation (negative) with the North Atlantic Oscillation index and the Mediterranean Oscillation index in winter is also statistically significant (p < 0.05). Results show that the interannual variability of the WeMOi could exert a strong influence on both the stilling and reversal phenomena, as it displays statistically significant negative trends for 1961–2010 and positive ones (non-significant) for 2010–2019, in agreement with the observed SWS trends. The use of the Jenkinson and Collison weather type classification reveals the marked influence of certain weather types in modulating SWS changes (i.e., west, northwest, and anticyclonic types). We proposed the increase in atmospheric thermal stability and the northward shift of the jet stream as principal causes of the stilling phenomenon in this region. Our results improve our understanding of wind changes, and highlight the importance of regional assessments to discern their socioeconomic and environmental impacts.

Do recent meteorological drought events in central Italy result from long‐term trend or increasing variability?

AbstractThe Mediterranean area is one of the most important “hotspot” where the effects of climate change are more evident, with an increase of extreme events such as hot waves and intense droughts. From this perspective, central Italy, which in the recent past suffered from the impact of intense negative anomalies of precipitation on water resources, shows peculiar characteristics, being its meteoclimatic regime determined by global, regional and local factors. In this context, this study aims at exploring the variability in time and space of the precipitation regime in central Italy over the period 1960–2020 analysing global factors, represented by indexes of teleconnection, and local factors such as orography and distance to the sea. Findings indicate an increase of drought events during the last 20 years, in a general pattern characterized by stationary precipitation amounts. This trend is clearer on the Tyrrhenian coast with a number of months under severe drought conditions increasing from 5% (1965–1999) to 24% (2000–2020). The strengthening of the periodic signal of precipitation is related mainly to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Index and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation Index. Considering the relationship between precipitation and teleconnection patterns over short time scales (few months), correlations are stronger with the North Atlantic Oscillation index and in general with the Atlantic patterns rather than with the Artic patterns, especially for the Adriatic side.

Synoptic causes of torrential rainfall in South-eastern Spain (1941–2017)

The weather types of 68 dates with torrential rainfall (≥200 mm/day) recorded at any weather station in the provinces of Alicante or Murcia during the period between 1941 and 2017 were determined using the Martín-Vide’s 1984 manual synoptic classification. Other relevant synoptic characteristics, as well as the surface pressure, and the value of the Western Mediterranean Oscillation index (WeMOi) on which those dates fell were also considered. The results show the high percentage of the Advection from the East with DANA (isolated high-altitude depression) or ‘gota fría’ type, which is present in more than 50% of the events, followed by the Trough type at 500 hPa and the Dynamic or Cold-core Low type, in the torrential rainfalls of South-eastern Spain. Except for the latter type, the average air pressure is close to or higher than normal. The WeMOi was negative for all events, which is consistent with the nature of this teleconnection pattern.

Temporal changes in extreme precipitation and exposure of tourism in Eastern and South-Eastern Spain

Climate change is modifying the arrival of tourists in the Mediterranean region of Spain, and also the occurrence of extreme torrential rainfall events in the same area, affecting the tourist potentiality of the area. These events show a good relationship with the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO) on the Mediterranean coast of Spain. From 1950 to 2016, 239 episodes of extreme torrential rainfall (≥200 mm/24 h) were recorded in the Jucar and Segura hydrographic basins. 92.1% of these events took place during a negative WeMO phase. We performed calendar and Fourier analyses to study the WeMO index (WeMOi) intraannual variability. The lowest WeMOi values tally with the highest frequency of extreme torrential rainfall events during the second 10-day period of October. A change in the calendar of the minimum values of the WeMOi was identified between 1950 and 1982 and 1983–2016. Negative WeMOi values persist until November during the second subperiod. This might be associated with a new temporal distribution of extreme torrential events of precipitation. This has given rise to greater exposure of people to torrential events in autumn. Tourism in this area faces new challenges related to the increase in tourist numbers, and also to the exposure risk to rainfall events.

Identifying non‐stationary and long‐term river–aquifer interactions as a response to large climatic patterns and anthropogenic pressures using wavelet analysis (Mancha Oriental Aquifer, Spain)

AbstractThe objective of this study was to analyse periodicities and the long‐term variability of monthly Júcar River–Mancha Oriental Aquifer interactions (RAI) and regionally measured precipitation (PP) with special focus on the correlations between these local hydrological variables and the large climatic patterns governing the Iberian Peninsula, represented by their teleconnection indices – the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAOi) and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation index (WeMOi). To that end, wavelet analysis has been applied since it not only provides insight into the time‐series dynamics but also permits statistical interpretation and correlation analysis. As a result, several periodicities have been detected: intermittent semi‐annual periodicity in PP and the NAOi and annual periodicity in the RAI, NAOi and WeMOi time series. Long cycles (approximately 14 years) are also observed in the PP and WeMOi time series. The cross‐wavelet spectra show a correlation between the RAI and the rest of the variables on the semi‐annual and the annual scales, while wavelet coherence detects common behaviour with longer cycles – 5–6 years between the NAOi and the RAI and cycles of both 1–5 years and 7–10 years between PP and the RAI. Furthermore, results show that the periodicities in the teleconnection indices and precipitation propagate into the RAI with certain lead times: 3 months between the RAI and PP and 6 months between the RAI and the NAOi. The results indicate that the detected periodicities and the coherence between the studied variables could have applications in strategic planning on a river basin scale, taking into account the propagation times and the frequency scale. This methodological approach can be applied into strategic water resource planning independently of the geographical location of the hydrogeological system, the basin size and the climate region.

Intra-annual variability of the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO) and occurrence of extreme torrential precipitation in Catalonia (NE Iberia)

Abstract. In previous studies the Western Mediterranean Oscillation index (WeMOi) at daily resolution has proven to constitute an effective tool for analysing the occurrence of episodes of torrential precipitation over eastern Spain. The western Mediterranean region is a very sensitive area, since climate change can enhance these weather extremes. In the present study we created a catalogue of the extreme torrential episodes (≥200 mm in 24 h) that took place in Catalonia (NE Iberia) during the 1951–2016 study period (66 years). We computed daily WeMOi values and constructed WeMOi calendars. Our principal result reveals the occurrence of 50 episodes (0.8 cases per year), mainly concentrated in the autumn. We confirmed a threshold of WeMOi ≤ −2 to define an extreme negative WeMO phase at daily resolution. Most of the 50 episodes (60 %) in the study area occurred on days presenting an extreme negative WeMOi value. Specifically, the most negative WeMOi values are detected in autumn, from 11 to 20 October, coinciding with the highest frequency of extreme torrential events. On comparing the subperiods, we observed a statistically significant decrease in WeMOi values in all months, particularly in late October and in November and December. No changes in the frequency of these extreme torrential episodes were observed between both subperiods. In contrast, a displacement of the extreme torrential episodes is detected from early to late autumn; this can be related to a statistically significant warming of sea temperature.

The influence of the Western Mediterranean Oscillation upon the spatio-temporal variability of precipitation over Catalonia (northeastern of the Iberian Peninsula)

Abstract Previous studies have demonstrated the existence of a statistically significant influence of the Western Mediterranean Oscillation index (WeMOi) upon the precipitation of Catalonia (northeast Spain). In the present study, we analyse the statistical relationship between the WeMOi-precipitation correlation coefficients and two statistical indices at the seasonal and annual timescales. The rainfall database used in the analyses comprises 70 pluviometric series covering the 1950–2015 (66 years) study period, and they are spatially distributed throughout Catalonia. The two statistical indices considered are the coefficient of variation (CV) and the disparity consecutive index (S). The results of the spatial variability of precipitation showed the strongest influence of the WeMO over locations in which precipitation irregularity was highest (high CV and S values), and vice versa. The results for temporal rainfall variability showed that in the subperiods in which the correlation coefficients between the WeMOi and precipitation were weak, rainfall variability showed a decrease (low CV and S values), and vice versa. The best results were found to occur in autumn and winter, and in annual rainfall, under the influence of the negative phase of the WeMO. In summer, the positive phase of the pattern shows a predominance due to convective rainfall. The CV and S indices provided high and very high values for rainfall variability on the coast, especially in southernmost Catalonia. The S values are more accurate with regard to identifying the precipitation areas typically influenced by Mediterranean flows. The main conclusion is that the WeMO pattern strongly determines precipitation variability in its areas of influence.

Influences of synoptic situation and teleconnections on fog‐water collection in the Mediterranean Iberian Peninsula, 2003–2012

AbstractFog‐water collection has been widely analysed for its quantification and potential uses; however, there are few studies assessing the synoptic conditions and large‐scale teleconnection patterns that affect its occurrence. Focusing on the Mediterranean Iberian Peninsula, this work aims to analyse the synoptic patterns, both at surface level and 850 hPa geopotential height, that most likely to favour fog‐water collection, and to quantify the relationship between fog‐water collection and the NAOi (North Atlantic Oscillation index), MOi (Mediterranean Oscillation index) as well as WeMOi (Western Mediterranean Oscillation index) teleconnection patterns. For this purpose, daily fog‐water observations from a dense network of 23 fog‐water collectors located along the Mediterranean Iberian Peninsula for 2003–2012 were analysed in relation to synoptic patterns and the three‐teleconnection indices. The major findings are: (a) The most favourable synoptic patterns for fog‐water collection are maritime advections carrying humidity from the Mediterranean basin, and cyclonic circulations, whereas anti‐cyclonic situations generally led to large number of foggy days with low fog‐collection rates. (b) In terms of winds at 850 hPa, the most favourable low‐level flows for fog‐water collection are associated with strong winds (&gt;5.1 m s−1) from the Mediterranean. Atlantic winds generally cause a greater number of fog days than Mediterranean winds, with less fog‐water collection rates. (c) WeMOi has the greatest influence on fog‐water collection, mainly during winter and spring months, with statistically significant negative relationships for most of the stations. MOi also shows a great influence, with a large number of statistically significant negative correlations, mainly during the same months as WeMOi. Lastly, NAOi presented the lowest and no significant negative correlations with fog‐water collection.

The impact of moisture sources on the oxygen isotope composition of precipitation at a continental site in central Europe

The stable isotope composition of precipitation records processes taking place within the hydrological cycle. Potentially, moisture sources are important controls on the stable isotope composition of precipitation, but studies focused on this topic are still scarce. We studied the moisture sources contributing to precipitation at Postojna (Slovenia) from 2009 to 2013. Back trajectory analyses were computed for the days with precipitation at Postojna. The moisture uptake locations were identified along these trajectories using standard hydrometeorological formulation. The moisture uptake locations were integrated in eight source regions to facilitate its comparison to the monthly oxygen isotope composition (δ18O values) of precipitation. Nearly half of the precipitation originated from continental sources (recycled moisture), and >40% was from central and western Mediterranean. Results show that moisture sources do not have a significant impact on the oxygen isotope composition at this site. We suggest that the large proportion of recycled moisture originated from transpiration rather than evaporation, which produced water vapour with less negative δ18O values. Thus the difference between the oceanic and local vapour source was reduced, which prevented the distinction of the moisture sources based on their oxygen isotope signature. Nevertheless, δ18O values of precipitation are partially controlled by climate parameters, which is of major importance for paleoclimate studies. We found that the main climate control on Postojna δ18O values of precipitation is the surface temperature. Amount effect was not recorded at this site, and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) does not impact the δ18O values of precipitation. The Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO) was correlated to oxygen stable isotope composition, although this atmospheric pattern was not a control. Instead we found that the link to δ18O values results from synoptic scenarios affecting WeMO index as well as temperature. Therefore, interpretation of δ18O values of precipitation in terms of climate is limited to surface temperature, although at least half of the variability observed still depends on unknown controls of the hydrological cycle.

Environmental drivers of sardine (Sardina pilchardus) in the Catalan Sea (NW Mediterranean Sea)

ABSTRACTIn the area surrounding the Ebro Delta, similar to the rest of the north-western Mediterranean Sea, the sardine (Sardina pilchardus), one of the most exploited small pelagic fishes, has suffered a decreasing trend in abundance and biomass in the last decade, with low values in evidence since 2007. The dependence of this species on environmental factors makes it vulnerable to environmental changes; consequently, the abundance of the species is highly variable. Using segmented regression, we evaluated the presence of discontinuities in the temporal pattern of the seasonally adjusted landings per unit effort (LPUE), which was used as a proxy for abundance, between 2000 and 2013. The results suggested a sudden increase in mid-2005, followed by a sharp decrease starting in 2006. A generalized additive mixed model (GAMM), incorporating the linear correlation structure, was used to identify relationships between the seasonally adjusted LPUE and trends of the Western Mediterranean Oscillation index (WeMOI), sea surface temperature (SST), salinity (SAL) and the Zonal and Meridional Currents (ZC and MC, respectively). The variance inflation factors (VIFs) were calculated between all environmental variables to avoid high-dimensional collinearities. The final GAMM, selected using the Akaike information criterion, indicated that positive WeMOI values, which favour the productivity of the area, along with SAL (at ca. 38) and a northward-flowing MC, favoured LPUE. Our results, obtained by applying a method in which variation due to season, non-linearity, autocorrelation and collinearity of the covariates was taken into account, provided further evidence of the dependence of the sardine population upon specific hydrographic variables.

Disentangling the effects of predation and oceanographic fluctuations in the mortality of two allopatric seabird populations

AbstractLife‐history traits of migratory seabirds are influenced by changing conditions at breeding and wintering grounds. Climatic conditions and predation are known to impact populations’ survival rates, but few studies examine their effect simultaneously. We used multievent capture–recapture models to assess mortality due to environmental conditions and predation in breeding European storm petrels (Hydrobates pelagicus) in two allopatric colonies (Mediterranean and Atlantic). Predatory mortality at the colonies showed annual variation, being around 0.05 in certain years. Mortality at sea differed between the two oceanic basins, and was lower in the Mediterranean colony [0.11, 95% CI (0.09, 0.14)] when compared to the Atlantic colony [0.18, 95% CI (0.15, 0.22)]. The Western Mediterranean Oscillation index (WeMOi) explained 57% of the temporal variability in mortality of Mediterranean breeders. In comparison, 43% of the temporal variability in mortality of Atlantic breeders was explained by the winter St Helena index (wHIX) and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation index (wENSO). Our results suggest that Mediterranean breeders remain in this basin for wintering where they may face lower migratory costs and more favourable environmental conditions. In contrast, Atlantic breeders’ mortality may be due to higher cost of migration, changing upwelling conditions in the Benguela current and heavy storms over their migratory route during La Niña events. This study underlines the importance of modelling separately different causes of mortality when testing the effects of climatic covariates.

Influence of long-range atmospheric transport pathways and climate teleconnection patterns on the variability of surface 210Pb and 7Be concentrations in southwestern Europe

The variability of the atmospheric concentration of the 7Be and 210Pb radionuclides is strongly linked to the origin of air masses, the strength of their sources and the processes of wet and dry deposition. It has been shown how these processes and their variability are strongly affected by climate change. Thus, a deeper knowledge of the relationship between the atmospheric radionuclides variability measured close to the ground and these atmospheric processes could help in the analysis of climate scenarios. In the present study, we analyze the atmospheric variability of a 14-year time series of 7Be and 210Pb in a Mediterranean coastal city using a synergy of different indicators and tools such as: the local meteorological conditions, global and regional climate indexes and a lagrangian atmospheric transport model. We particularly focus on the relationships between the main pathways of air masses and sun spots occurrence, the variability of the local relative humidity and temperature conditions, and the main modes of regional climate variability, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO).The variability of the observed atmospheric concentrations of both 7Be and 210Pb radionuclides was found to be mainly positively associated to the local climate conditions of temperature and to the pathways of air masses arriving at the station. Measured radionuclide concentrations significantly increase when air masses travel at low tropospheric levels from central Europe and the western part of the Iberian Peninsula, while low concentrations are associated with westerly air masses. We found a significant negative correlation between the WeMO index and the atmospheric variability of both radionuclides and no significant association was observed for the NAO index.

Monthly rain amounts at Fabra Observatory (Barcelona, NE Spain): fractal structure, autoregressive processes and correlation with monthly Western Mediterranean Oscillation index

ABSTRACTMonthly rain amounts (MRA) recorded at Fabra Observatory (Barcelona, NE Spain) since 1917–2010, are analysed from two complementary points of view. First, mono‐ and multifractal characteristics of MRA are compared with those corresponding to the monthly Western Mediterranean Oscillation index (WeMOi), which affects the rainfall regime at the western Mediterranean region. Monofractality is analysed through Hurst and Hausdorff exponents, and a power law describing the dependence of MRA power spectra on frequency. The reconstruction theorem permits to quantify the complexity of the physical process by means of the correlation dimension and the Kolmogorov entropy. In agreement with this theorem, the predictive instability is also evaluated through the Lyapunov exponents. The multifractality is characterized by the critical Hölder exponent, as well as by the asymmetry and spectral width of the multifractal spectrum. Second, three predictive processes for MRA are tested. One of them is based on the assumption that MRA could be simulated by fractional Gaussian noise. The other two are, by one hand, an ARIMA(p,1,0) process for MRA; on the other hand, an adaptation of the ARIMA process for MRA taking as arguments preceding WeMOi. Finally, relationships between MRA and WeMOi confirm that outstanding MRA use to be coincident with negative WeMOi. An explanation is also proposed for the non‐negligible number of MRA corresponding to positive WeMOi.

Influence of atmospheric teleconnection patterns on airborne pollen levels in the NE Iberian Peninsula

Using 22 pollen taxa collected at 6 localities in Catalonia (NE Spain) during the period 1994-2011, we show that climate variability associated with Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns (North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation and Western Mediterranean Oscillation) affects both seasonal pollen production and the timing of the airborne pollen season. For most of the studied pollen taxa, positive phases of the 3 climatic indices were related to a decrease in the seasonal pollen index and an advance and enlargement of the pollen season. Furthermore, for most taxa, negative phases of the climatic indices were linked to higher pollen production via an increase in rainfall. A clear relationship between climatic indices and the end of the pollen season was not observed. Since pollen parameters correlate more strongly with the Western Mediterranean Oscillation index (WeMOi) than other indices, the WeMOi negative trend observed over the last decades needs to be confirmed to properly identify its effect on ecosystems and public health in the western Mediterranean basin.