Western Balkan States Research Articles

The reach of state power in a globalized world – some lessons for the EU and the Western Balkans

Globalization trends have significantly influenced the role and importance of state power, though certainly not to the extent that one could argue globalization has rendered states obsolete or unnecessary. Many of today’s global challenges, such as terrorism, climate change, the migrant crisis, and others, are impossible to address within national frameworks, necessitating the cooperation of sovereign states as the ‘appropriate measure’ in responding to these and similar global issues.Starting from the fact that the components of state power persist even in an increasingly interactive and globalized world and that the past decades have witnessed attempts to balance state power among the often disproportionate member states of the European Union, this paper posits the hypothesis that the Western Balkan states lack the independent capacity to build institutions modeled after those of EU member states. Consequently, this region serves as a striking example of a neglected area with missed opportunities for clear integration into the EU.Furthermore, the paper analyzes, in light of knowledge on variability and development, identity and diversity, opposition and contradiction, the circumstances that have led to a series of missed opportunities for progress in this volatile region, as well as the internal problems within the Union that affect the Western Balkan countries on their European path.

EU Accession of Western Balkan States: The Role of CEFTA and WTO Membership

The Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA) is known to have positively affected the EU accession of several central and eastern European states. The fairly modest progress of EU accessions of Western Balkan states is in stark contrast to the processes of the EU accession of the parties to the original version of CEFTA. This article analyses the role of WTO membership as an external factor determining the efficacy of CEFTA in advancing the process of EU integration in the Western Balkans (2007–2024). The article identifies two key advantages of WTO membership in the context of CEFTA’s role in the process of EU accession. The first advantage is related to the use of WTO dispute settlement to ensure compliance with standards either identical or similar to those established by CEFTA. The second advantage is based on the relatively new WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA), aimed at eliminating many of the barriers to international trade, which happen to be the key problems as regards regional economic integration in the Western Balkans. The article concludes that WTO membership could play a decisive role for the coordinated and efficient process of the European integration of Western Balkan states on the basis of CEFTA.

EUROPEAN UNION – WESTERN BALKANS: DYNAMICS OF INTEGRATION

The article was devoted to the analyses of the European Union’s integration strategy towards Western Balkans states. The author examines the reasons for transformation of the EUs’ policy from restrained attitude towards enlargement of the Union embracing western Balkans states to acceleration of this process on the background of aggravation of the geopolitical situation and armed conflict around Ukraine. The European Union’s priorities concerning its enlargement were also examined. They are oriented towards strengthening the EU’s role as important actor on global and regional scale and aimed on prevention of geopolitical competition in the region and resumption of crisis cycle in the region by means of stabilization of the region, by realization of profound social and economic as well as legal reforms in the Western Balkans states on the basis of the Copenhagen criteria. Assessment of the EU’ strategy on integration of the Western Balkans has been done on the basis of key documents of the EU’s organs and official statements of its leaders as well as results of the EU’s summits in Slovenia and Brussels (December 2023). Considerable attention was devoted to the key directions of perspective cooperation of the EU and the Western Balkans states in the areas of security and defense. The conclusion was made that the EU’s integration strategy towards Western Balkans is aimed at keeping those states in the realm of its political and economic influence and stabilization of the region in conditions of the new challenges to its stability and security.

The Impacts of COVID-19 as an External Socio-economic Factor in the Real Convergence of the Western Balkan States Toward the European Union

The Western Balkans have faced many challenges in the last two decades. Thus the path of socio-economic progress has not been easy at all. Continuous efforts over time in the arena were made to reduce the gap in the integration path toward the EU. Year 2019, with the COVID-19 pandemic, the European economy was placed in a new economic position. Unlike other known crises, dealing with such an unknown visa, social reactions, cultural conflicts, and the many restrictions that were imposed as a security measure affected the socio-economics of the EU states, questioning the degree of real convergence between the EU states and those of the Western Balkans. The purpose of this paper is to know the effect of the global and covid crisis on the convergence of the Western Balkan states as well as the convergence between the EU states.

Cybersecurity in the Western Balkans and European Regulation

The technological leap is challenging interoperable government ideas and policies for cybersecurity. Online platforms, telecommunications networks require policies that track their changes to prevent negative computer phenomena. Some countries see the opportunity for cooperation and partnership to increase cybersecurity, while other need to prepare strategic frameworks alone to face cyber warfare. Good European practices serve as a model for the Western Balkan states, guiding them towards proper legal regulation and internal legal alignment with the laws of the European Union. The Western Balkans region faces an intensification of cases showing weak cybersecurity strategies and intractable barriers to preventing cyber warfare. Cybersecurity poses not only a challenge for the Western Balkans but also a global challenge, impacting the capacity and well-thought-out government policies of the Western Balkan countries, which are also transitional countries. Through this study, the cyber landscape in which different actors navigate will be explored.

The Role of Public Debt in Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis Evidence for Western Balkans and European Countries

Public debt was often considered as a supplementary source of public finances. In six Western Balkan states, a fixed regression model was employed to gauge the effect of public debt on economic growing using panel data. Findings demonstrate that public debt significantly affects economic growth. It was found too that direct foreign investments have a substantial influence into the economic growth. As an option for financing, state governments use external and internal public debt, which is often part of the debate approximately how much public debt should be used. Use of public debt varies from country to country and depends on economic growth and budgetary factors and economic and social demands. Reviewing the literature, it can be observed impact of public debt on overall economy and its growth and this was too used by states as an opportunity for economic growth. This is also reflected in the case of our study where we analyzed the data for EU member countries and Great Britain compared to the Western Balkans countries. During the research it is observed influence of public debt in economic growth on these countries and as such many states have exceeded the limits of the use of public debt based on legal frameworks, with the sole purpose of financing public demands and influence of economic growth. Public debt in this paper identifies the affiliation with economic growth through the specification of linear and non-linear time series models using the panel model for the years 2012-2021 for 35 countries in total. Also, the regression analysis shows us a support and correlation among public debt versus economic growth of countries part of this study. This is observed in developed countries, which have a higher potential and possibility of financing economic activity through public debt, while the Western Balkans countries are often challenged with the possibilities of financing from public debt. As variables we have GDP, Foreign Direct Investments and Inflation.

The promises of the bureaucratisation of intangible cultural heritage safeguarding in post-conflict regions: lessons from anthropological fieldwork in four Western Balkan states

ABSTRACT Anthropology and critical heritage studies share a rather negative view of the role of bureaucracy in heritage management as utilised by the international community in post-conflict regions. However, fieldwork findings among ethnologists working as expert bureaucrats in four Western Balkan states (Serbia, Croatia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina) suggest that the ongoing process of the ‘bureaucratisation’ of collective identities, based on UNESCO principles, holds more promise for successful conflict management than relying solely on day-to-day politics or a purely academic critique. The safeguarding of intangible cultural heritage has emerged as a powerful tool for redirecting identity-based conflicts towards abstract concepts such as ‘elements’, ‘lists’, and ‘registers’. These abstractions are less susceptible to suffering than real individuals. Consequently, this approach offers a greater chance of success in mitigating conflicts. Anthropology’s most significant contribution to the global implementation of the heritage-for-peace paradigm could be to reconcile with ethnology, despite any disciplinary incongruity that may arise.

INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE TO TURKEY 2023 EARTHQUAKE: A POLICY ANALYSIS

Western Balkan states, among them Kosovo and North Macedonia, joined others from around the world in offering aid to Turkey, which, along with Syria, was hit by two deadly earthquakes on February 6, 2023. The epicenter of the 7.8-magnitude earthquake was in Kahramanmaras province near the border with Syria.As a result of the earthquakes, there were 50,783 deaths, 297 missing and 107,204 injured across 11 of the 17 affected provinces of Turkey. At least 15.73 million people and 4 million buildings were affected. About 345,000 apartments were destroyed. Over 1.5 million people were left homeless.Over 100 nations and 16 international organizations offered aid to the earthquake victims in Turkey. In addition, 11 countries contributed search and rescue teams accompanied by specially trained dogs to locate survivors trapped in the rubble. In contrast, aid to Syria was comparatively less, primarily due to Western sanctions on the nation and government-imposed restrictions on humanitarian organizations operating beyond their controlled regions.The paper conducts an analysis of ten existing international response organizations, examining their agreements and procedures in disaster response efforts. It investigates the history and effectiveness of these organizations in managing disaster situations, with a specific focus on their roles in addressing the Turkey and Syria disasters. The paper assesses their effectiveness in the context of the February 2023 earthquake.Furthermore, the paper explores the concept of mutual aid mechanisms, which are commonly utilized by countries worldwide for disaster response. These agreements, whether bilateral or multilateral, are typically established at different levels of government, ranging from local to national and even international. While the specifics of these agreements may vary among nations, the overarching goal is to create a framework for sharing resources, personnel, and expertise during times of emergency.Additionally, the paper discusses the response efforts of two Balkan countries, Kosovo and North Macedonia, which provided assistance such as search and rescue teams, handlers with dogs, and material aid like blankets and stretchers. Notably, these nations offered their support independently, without being part of any international organization. Their response was established through direct communication with Turkey. It was characterized by its immediacy and sincerity,Finally, the paper draws conclusions based on an evaluation of the strengths and weaknesses of existing response systems, offering recommendations to policymakers to enhance overall disaster response procedures.

Assessing Determinants and Impact of Possible Russian Influence in the Western Balkan Countries

Abstract For Russia, the Western Balkan region holds significant historical, cultural, and religious ties, and while from a historical point of view the Western Balkans represents an area where Russia tries to be a long-time actor, the relationship between Moscow and Western Balkan states also depends on international factors such as EU integration. Additionally, this relationship is further impacted by current international crises. The objective of this article is to confirm the rise of Russian influence in the Western Balkan countries, and to determine how and to what extent it has impacted the region. For this purpose, a qualitative analysis is conducted with secondary data from many sources, including reports and policy events; the analysis also includes a rhetorical review of public appearances by the political leadership of the Western Balkan countries. First, we consider Russia’s pro-active approach manifested through its economic involvement in the region, and second the reactive approach of the Western Balkan countries due to their disillusionment with the EU, and the Covid-19 pandemic. Further, we argue that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a strong catalyst, as it directly affects the relationship of the Western Balkan countries with Russia, the EU, and vice versa.

Alexandre Kostov, ed. Contemporary Balkans. The Challenges of the 21st Century

Alexandre Kostov, ed. <i>Contemporary Balkans. The Challenges of the 21st Century</i>

Hybrid Democracies of the Western Balkans

The governance models of Western Balkan states are now based on a liberal democracy and the development of an open and free economy. In the early 2000s, the European Union was very active in the Western Balkans, strongly promoting democratic values for good governance and strengthening the implementation of the rule of law, democratizing state institutions, with the aim of creating a legal order to protect and respect human rights. Despite the engagement of European Union structures, it is now evident that in some countries of the Western Balkans, there are tendencies towards an authoritarian model of the state, away from a functional system for effective governance. The reasons are mainly due to internal factors and circumstances of the region. The international factor has consistently criticized these governance models being created in some Western Balkan countries, which take the form of hybrid democracies. This form of governance has already established its own status quo and is an approach that is resistant to change, both by international factors and by domestic governmental/political structures. The integration of Western Balkan states into Euro-Atlantic institutions, especially the European Union, remains the main topic of discussion for key leaders, not only within the region but also among the main leaders of the European Union member countries. Integration is a complex process that requires mutual cooperation. On the one hand, serious commitment is required from Western Balkan countries to meet the conditionality criteria, and on the other hand, the European Union must be willing to undertake concrete initiatives for their inclusion. These initiatives may also require reforms within the structures of the European Union. Diplomatically, initially, traditional bilateral relations were seen as the most reliable alternative to achieve Euro-Atlantic integration, which the Western Balkan countries aspire to so much. Despite numerous efforts, the Western Balkan countries now feel "fatigued" from the long wait, resulting from difficult conditions and technicalities. The governance of the region's countries is under constant pressure from bureaucracy and the weakness in decision-making of European Union institutions, as well as from the constraints and conditions applied over the years. This situation has led to an "internal upheaval" both within the political class and the civil society of Western Balkan countries. High-ranking political leaders of some Western Balkan countries have now taken joint political initiatives with regional significance. Based on the various developments in a complex region such as the Western Balkans, this paper aims to present the implications that may arise in the Euro-Atlantic integration process from the involvement of actors with different geo-strategic interests.&#x0D; &#x0D; &#x0D; Received: 05 May 2022 / Accepted: 16 May 2023 / Published: 20 May 2023&#x0D;

Ambivalent Europeanization in the Western Balkans

The drawn-out process of applying for European Union membership has encouraged cynicism in Serbia and other Western Balkan states about the value of becoming part of the bloc. Local elites have instrumentalized the accession process, making a show of superficial compliance with EU conditions while eroding democratic institutions and stoking popular backlashes against EU-mandated protections for minorities. Perceptions that Brussels has turned a blind eye to such behavior have weakened the pro-European camp in the region.

EU – WESTERN BALKANS: PROBLEMS OF INTEGRATION

The article examines the results of December EU-Western Balkans Summit and the EU strategy concerning EU – Western Balkans integration. It notes that the summit became a new step in realization of the EU integration strategy in relation to the Western Balkans states. At this stage the strategy is focused on strengthening its political and economic influence in the region and on alignment of the Western Balkans states with the priorities of the EU common security and defense policy, including on the questions of the Ukrainian conflict and related sanctions. At the same time the EU integration strategy creates incentives aimed at realization of necessary reforms in the region with the purpose of strengthening internal stability in the region and prevention of potential conflicts inside of the Western Balkans states as well as among them and first of all between Serbia and Kosovo. The author analyzes the main conflicts in the region which negatively affect stability and security in the Western Balkans and the integration process in general. Special attention is devoted to the escalation of conflict between Serbia and Kosovo which could create serious threat to stability in the region and jeopardize the integration process itself as well as the EU mediation efforts aimed at normalization of relationships between Serbia and Kosovo. The author considers that further EU strategy would be developed on two parallel tracks – acceleration of integration process with the Western Balkans states and increasing effectiveness of the EU mediation mission aimed at achieving comprehensive agreement on normalization of relations between Serbia and Kosovo.

Wojna rosyjsko-ukraińska w percepcji państw Bałkanów Zachodnich

The outbreak of war in Ukraine in February 2022 has been met with a mixed reaction from the Western Balkan states. Residents of the region, remembering the break‑up of Yugoslavia and the bloody civil war in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the 1990s, perceive the Russian‑Ukrainian conflict unevenly. Each of the Western Balkan states, due to their own historical experiences and geopolitical circumstances, perceives, analyses and reports on the war in Ukraine in a slightly different way. Although all countries in the region aspire to membership of the European Union, not all have implemented sanctions against the Russian Federation. Western Balkan perspectives on Russia’s war against Ukraine presented in the article through a comparative analysis, enrich the European narrative and attempts to understand or evaluate the war.

Income convergence in the neoclassical growth model: The example of the Western Balkan states and the European Union

Income convergence in the neoclassical growth model: The example of the Western Balkan states and the European Union

The effect of credit risk on the financial performance of commercial banks in Balkan countries

This study aims to examine the effect of credit risk on the profitability of financial institutions. For research, we have collected secondary data from the relevant institutions of the Western Balkan states such as Kosovo, Albania, North Macedonia, Serbia, Croatia, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. In total, there are 26 commercial banks from 2010 to 2022 that serve in these countries. We consider information from three panels that categorize state-owned banks, private banks, or multinational banks according to their ownership structure. Return on assets (ROA) or return on equity (ROE) were used as surrogates for financial performance measures, while the percentage of bad loans was used to measure credit risk (Furhmann, 2022). Where the research objective was to explore the relationship between credit risk and financial performance in commercial banks operating in the Balkan countries, to understand the factors that affect credit risk, and to suggest measures to increase the financial performance of banks in the region (Gbadamosi &amp; Olaleke, 2019). From the evaluation results, we can see that both ROA and ROE are inversely related to credit risk (Al-Malkawi, 2019). The profitability of commercial banks in the Balkan countries from 2010 to 2022 has been shown to be related to credit risk management. As a result, financial institutions should pay more attention to credit risk management, especially bad debt prevention and investigation. Therefore, managers should pay more attention to the latest credit risk management strategies.

Emerging and disruptive technologies in the Western Balkans: Do we need a new arms control regime?

The subject of this paper is to examine the relationship between the emerging and disruptive technologies and the sub-regional arms control regime in the Western Balkans, established by the Agreement on Sub-Regional Arms Control, signed on June 14, 1996, in Florence. The main research question is: Do the emerging and disruptive technologies that the Western Balkans countries possess or are planning to acquire influence the existing arms control equation in the Western Balkans and, if yes, do we need a new arms control regime? Authors explore this question through the analysis of emerging and disruptive technologies that have taken roots in the Western Balkans and are likely to grow significant in the future, and the sub-regional arms control regime, taking emerging and disruptive technologies as one of the variables that challenges the existing arms control regime in this region. They compare the current emerging and disruptive technologie capacities that Western Balkan states possess, as well as the potential of those emerging and disruptive technologies to disrupt the balance of forces set by the Agreement. The authors conclude that, although we do not need a completely new arms control agreement in the Western Balkans, having in mind the flexibility of the existing one, a responsible approach would include an update of the current arms control regime, especially regarding the new confidence and security building measures, including increased transparency on the acquirement and the nature of potential use of emerging and disruptive technologies.

EU AND THE BULGARIAN-MACEDONIAN CONFLICT

The problem addressed in this article is the lifting of the Bulgarian veto on the start of the EU accession negotiations with Northern Macedonia (and Albania). It traces the main stages of the prolonged Bulgarian-Macedonian dispute and the development of the postures of both parties. It also explicates the domestic political situation in both countries and the causes under which the dispute aggravates and mitigates. Consequently, the unexpected willingness of Brussels for maximum concessions to Sofia’s ultimatums, actually contradictory to its principles, is explained. An apparently impulsive decision to grant, notwithstanding the established procedures, a candidate status for admission to Ukraine and Moldova tested the EU’s relations with the Balkan region. After having long stood in line, the leaders of the Western Balkan states viewed this step with jealousy and did not hide their disappointment. Under these conditions, the European Union felt it imperative to do something at any cost to revive the idea of «enlargement» in their eyes and restore its authority. However, in the end, the Bulgarian-Macedonian dispute is only ostensibly resolved, but in fact only mothballed. Therefore the difficult socio-political situation and the balance of power in both countries will not provide for rapid progress either in their relationship or in the EU negotiation with Skopje. The forecast in conclusion is that such tactics are unlikely to have a positive impact on the authority of the European Union in the Western Balkans. But the new idea of the «EU political community» put forward by Emmanuel Macron and supported by Olaf Scholz will probably continue to disguise the obvious fact that the EU in its current form is not ready to accept new members.

Exchange rates and purchasing power parity: the case of Central European

Introduction. The question of how exchange rates adjust is central to exchange rate policy, since countries with fixed exchange rates need to know what the equilibrium exchange rate is likely to be and countries with variable exchange rates would like to know what level and variation in real and nominal exchange rates they should expect. In broader terms, the question of whether exchange rates adjust toward a level established by purchasing power parity helps to determine the extent to which the international macroeconomic system is self-equilibrating Analysis of recent researches and publications has shown that the published up to date papers aren’t systematic and can’t claim to be a complete analysis in the chosen field. The aim is to test the validity of PPP hypothesis in the long run in former and current European transitional economies. Methods. General scientific methods such as the systematic approach, theo­retical generalization and comparison, analysis, synthesis and the Levin–Lin–Chu (LLC) panel unit root test have been used in the research. Research results. This paper tests the validity of purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis in the long run in selected European transitional economies. The database used in this paper contains monthly data on real effective exchange rate (REER) observed over 23 years, from March 1995 till November 2017. To test the hypothesis, the Levin–Lin–Chu (LLC) panel unit root test was employed. The results confirm that PPP holds both for Central European and Western Balkan states in the long run. Conclusions. The equilibrium exchange rate question is central question to exchange rate policy. Purchasing power parity hypothesis was tested on the sample of 14 European countries form the Central and Eastern Europe and Western Balkan region. The database used in this paper contains monthly data on real effective exchange rate –REER observed over 23 years, from March 1995 till November 2017. As PPP holds if the real exchange rate reverts to its equilibrium value over time, the unit root test was applied on panel REER dataset. The results of applied Levin–Lin–Chu (LLC) panel unit root tests confirmed that the PPP hypothesis holds for selected countries during the observed period. Additionaly, results confirmed that PPP hypothesis holds both for CEE and Western Balkan countries separately.

The Evolution of Poland’s Foreign Policy Towards the Balkans

The main aim of this article is to outline the evolution of Poland’s foreign policy towards the Balkan region from 1989 to modern times. Poland’s foreign policy towards that region can be divided into several stages, the first being the period between the collapse of the Eastern Bloc and Poland’s full accession to the Euro-Atlantic structures, i.e., 1989-2004. The second stage is the 2004-2010 period when Poland implemented its Balkan policy that was underpinned by the European Union’s approach, and practically co-participated in the European Union’s policy towards the Balkan states. The third stage’s commencement was marked by Poland’s preparations for the EU Council Presidency in 2011, and its obligation to coordinate the EU’s Balkan policy as well. This stage is characterised by Poland’s greater involvement in creating policy towards the Balkans, as evidenced by the organisation of a summit called the Berlin Process in Poznań in 2019, which was the initiative of a group of EU Member States involved in developing cooperation with the Western Balkan states. In modern times, however, Poland’s policy in the Balkans remains limited while it should be far more vigorous due to the concerns related to Russia’s influence and expansion in that region.&nbsp;