Westerly Shear Research Articles

Tropical cyclone FANTALA's three turnbacks in the northeast of Madagascar Island.

The unique Tropical cyclone (TC) Fantala appeared in the central Indian Ocean (12.4°S, 73.5°E) at 00Z on April 11 in 2016 and moved northwestward along the northeast of Madagascar at 18 Z on April 15. Then, two incomprehensible turnbacks formed a unique TC track. The dynamic mechanisms of the three turnbacks were first studied based on remote sensing and multisource reanalysis data. The results reveal that the wind field with upper divergence and lower convergence promotes the development of Fantala. The anticyclone high pressure on the middle level atmosphere is an important factor for TC turnbacks. On 15 April, the TC made the first turnback to turn northwest due to the southward anticyclone weakened to moving northwest. On 18 April, the TC made the second turnback along the anticyclone edge due to the northern high-pressure and southern low-pressure trough. On 22 April, the TC made the third turnback because the anticyclonic high press center broke into two small independent anticyclonic centers in the southwest and northeast, which created a barrier band and pushed the northern TC to move to the northwest. Meanwhile, the vertical wind shear (VWS) also provides favorable conditions for TC turnbacks. On April 18, the middle atmosphere of the TC was affected by strong easterly shear and weak southerly shear, and the second turnback was completed. On April 22, the middle level environment was affected by strong westerly shear and weak north shear, and the third turnback was completed. Additionally, heat transport from the ocean to the atmosphere provides favorable conditions for TC development. On April 18, The maximum mean latent heat flux over northeastern Madagascar was 112.94 W/m2, Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential was 39.05 kJ/cm2, and the maximum wind speed at the center of the TC was 155 kts. On April 22, The heat transfer from the equator increased by 18.08 W/m2 compared with the latent heat on 21 April, the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential was 33.30 kJ/cm2, the maximum wind speed in the TC center was 90 kts, the high PV centerspread down from 850 mb to 900 mb. This study deepens the understanding of track forecasting during the development of a TC.

Composite Mesoscale Environmental Conditions Influencing Tornado Frequencies in Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

Abstract Spatial patterns of tropical cyclone tornadoes (TCTs), and their relationship to patterns of mesoscale predictors within United States landfalling tropical cyclones (LTCs) are investigated using multicase composites from 27 years of reanalysis data from 1995 through 2021. For 72 cases of LTCs with wide ranging TC intensites at landfall, daytime TCT frequency maxima are found in the northeast, right-front, and downshear-right quadrants when their composites are constructed in ground-relative, TC-heading relative, and environmental shear relative coordinates, respectively. TCT maxima are located near maxima of 10-m to 700-hPa bulk wind difference (BWD), which are enhanced by the TC circulation. This proxy for bulk vertical shear in roughly the lowest 3 km is among the best predictors of maximum TCT frequency. Relative to other times, the position of maximum TCT frequency during the afternoon shifts ∼100 km outward from the LTC center toward larger MLCAPE values. Composites containing the strongest LTCs have the strongest maximum 10-m to 700-hPa and 10-m to 500-hPa BWDs (∼20m s−1) with nearby maximum frequencies of TCTs. Corresponding composites containing weaker LTCs but still many TCTs, had bulk vertical shear values that were ∼20% smaller (∼16 m s−1). Additional composites of cases having similarly weak average LTC strength at landfall, but few or no TCTs, had both maximum bulk vertical shears that were an additional ∼20% lower (∼12 m s−1) and smaller MLCAPE. TCT environments occurring well inland are distinguished from others by having stronger westerly shear and a west-to-east oriented baroclinic zone (i.e., north-to-south temperature gradient) that enhances mesoscale ascent on the LTC’s east side.

On the magnitude and sensitivity of the quasi-biennial oscillation response to a tropical volcanic eruption

Abstract. Volcanic eruptions that inject sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere have the potential to alter large-scale circulation patterns, such as the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), which can affect weather and transport of chemical species. Here, we conduct simulations of tropical volcanic eruptions using the UM-UKCA aerosol-climate model with an explicit representation of the QBO. Eruptions emitting 60 Tg of SO2 (i.e. the magnitude of the 1815 Mt. Tambora eruption) and 15 Tg of SO2 (i.e. the magnitude of the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption) were initiated at the Equator during two different QBO states. We show that tropical eruptions delay the progression of the QBO phases, with the magnitude of the delay dependent on the initial wind shear in the lower stratosphere and a much longer delay when the shear is easterly than when it is westerly. The QBO response in our model is driven by vertical advection of momentum by the stronger tropical upwelling caused by heating due to the increased volcanic sulfate aerosol loading. Direct aerosol-induced warming with subsequent thermal wind adjustment, as proposed by previous studies, is found to only play a secondary role. This interpretation of the response is supported by comparison with a simple dynamical model. The dependence of the magnitude of the response on the initial QBO state results from differences in the QBO secondary circulation. In the easterly shear zone of the QBO, the vertical component of the secondary circulation is upward and reinforces the anomalous upwelling driven by volcanic aerosol heating, whereas in the westerly shear zone the vertical component is downward and opposes the aerosol-induced upwelling. We also find a change in the latitudinal structure of the QBO, with the westerly phase of the QBO strengthening in the hemisphere with the lowest sulfate aerosol burden. Overall, our study suggests that tropical eruptions of Pinatubo magnitude or larger could force changes to the progression of the QBO, with particularly disruptive outcomes for the QBO if the eruption occurs during the easterly QBO shear.

Resolved gravity waves in the tropical stratosphere: Impact of horizontal resolution and deep convection parametrization

AbstractConvectively generated gravity waves (CGGWs) are important for numerical weather prediction due to their effect on the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) in the stratosphere. Using global ECMWF IFS simulations at TCo7999 (or 1.25 km), TCo2559 (or 3.9 km) and TCo1279 (or 7.8 km) horizontal resolutions, sensitivity of resolved CGGWs to the horizontal resolution and to the explicit versus parametrized representation of deep convection is elucidated during the westerly shear phase of the QBO. Parametrized deep convection is found to inhibit CGGWs, resulting in a twofold reduction in CGGW forcing. When deep convection is explicitly resolved, the total CGGW forcing is almost unchanged across the horizontal resolutions. However, the contribution of long and mesoscale CGGWs (with horizontal wavelengths 100 km km) to the total CGGW forcing decreases and the contribution of smaller‐scale CGGWs (with km) increases as the horizontal resolution increases. At the maximum CGGW forcing altitude, at TCo7999 resolution 43% of the total CGGW forcing is due to long and mesoscale waves, whereas at TCo2559 and TCo1279 resolutions their contribution is 70% and 90%, respectively. While CGGW forcing from long and mesoscale waves is similar at TCo7999 resolution with explicit deep convection and at TCo1279 resolution with parametrized deep convection, CGGW forcing from these waves is artificially enhanced at TCo1279 and TCo2559 resolutions with explicit deep convection. This is due to the explicit deep convection being too strong and having too much variance for 100 km km. Therefore, parametrizations of deep convection and CGGWs (to account for forcing from waves with km) are required even at TCo2559 resolution. Additionally, resolved CGGW forcing at TCo7999 resolution is examined for the easterly shear phase of the QBO; similar to the westerly shear phase, the smaller‐scale waves contribute 55% to the total CGGW forcing at the maximum CGGW forcing altitude.

Steady radiating baroclinic vortices in vertically sheared flows

This paper examines baroclinic vortices embedded in a large-scale vertical shear. We describe a new class of steady propagating vortices that radiate Rossby waves but yet do not decay. This is possible since they can extract available potential energy from a large-scale vertically sheared flow, even though this flow is linearly stable. The vortices generate Rossby waves, which induce a meridional vortex drift and an associated heat flux explained by an analysis of pseudomomentum and pseudoenergy. An analytical steady solution is considered for the marginally stable flow in a two-layer model on the beta-plane, where the beta-effect is compensated by the potential vorticity gradient (PVG) associated with the meridional slope of the density interface. The compensation occurs in the upper layer for an upper layer westward flow (an easterly shear) and in the lower layer for an upper layer eastward flow (the westerly shear). The theory is confirmed by numerical simulations, indicating that for westward flows in subtropical oceans, the reduced PVG in the upper layer provides favorable conditions for eddy persistence and long-range propagation.

Revisiting the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation as Seen in ERA5. Part I: Description and Momentum Budget

AbstractThe dynamics and momentum budget of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) are examined in ERA5. Because of ERA5’s higher spatial resolution compared to its predecessors, it is capable of resolving a broader spectrum of atmospheric waves and allows for a better representation of the wave–mean flow interactions, both of which are of crucial importance for QBO studies. It is shown that the QBO-induced mean meridional circulation, which is mainly confined to the winter hemisphere, is strong enough to interrupt the tropical upwelling during the descent of the westerly shear zones. Since the momentum advection tends to damp the QBO, the wave forcing is responsible for both the downward propagation and for the maintenance of the QBO. It is shown that half the required wave forcing is provided by resolved waves during the descent of both westerly and easterly regimes. Planetary-scale waves account for most of the resolved wave forcing of the descent of westerly shear zones and small-scale gravity (SSG) waves with wavelengths shorter than 2000 km account for the remainder. SSG waves account for most of the resolved forcing of the descent of the easterly shear zones. The representation of the mean fields in the QBO is very similar in ERA5 and ERA-Interim but the resolved wave forcing is substantially stronger in ERA5. The contributions of the various equatorially trapped wave modes to the QBO forcing are documented in Part II.

A New Detection Scheme of Wave-Breaking Events with Blocking Flow Configurations

AbstractBlocking flow configurations, which tend to accompany strong circulation anomalies and therefore can cause extreme weather conditions, have recently been studied in relation to large-scale wave breaking (WB). Although WB events have been detected often from an instantaneous morphology perspective, the present study proposes a new approach for the detection from a wave-activity perspective in focusing on its accumulation, saturation, and release. This evolution of wave activity is theoretically equivalent to anomalous potential vorticity (PV) flux with its sign changing from negative to positive, which is utilized in this study to detect WB events that accompany high-amplitude height anomalies and blocking flow configurations. As in previous studies, a given WB event is classified into a high pressure type or low pressure type depending upon the sign of the primary PV anomaly center and further into an eastward or westward type depending upon the longitudinal movement of that center. The new method applied to the wintertime Northern Hemisphere shows that a WB event with a blocking anticyclone is likely to accompany an eastward-moving PV anomaly center, occurring mostly under anticyclonic westerly shear. By contrast, a WB event with a strong cyclonic anomaly mostly accompanies the eastward-moving PV anomaly center under cyclonic westerly shear. Composite analysis confirms the consistency between the sign-changing anomalous PV flux and convergence/divergence of wave-activity flux of quasi-stationary Rossby wave trains around the WB region.

Impact of tibetan plateau snow cover on tropical cyclogenesis via the Madden–Julian oscillation during the following boreal summer

This study investigates the role of the interannual variation of boreal winter (December–February) snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau (TPSC) in modulating the relationship between the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific (WNP) during the following boreal summer (June–October). During the boreal summer following a high snow cover anomaly (SCA), MJO-associated convection tends to be confined to the west of 140 °E, coinciding with more frequent tropical cyclone (TC) activity in this region. By contrast, there tends to be stronger MJO-associated convection extending farther east during years following low SCA. The MJO-associated convection extends to ~ 160 °E over the WNP basin with a peak around 140 °E. Thus, more TCs form farther east in the WNP in these years. We use composite analyses of large-scale environmental factors to demonstrate that low-level relative vorticity is one of the most important factors in controlling TCs in response to the change of MJO-associated convection between years with high SCA and low SCA. Meanwhile, eddy kinetic energy variations associated with the MJO are consistent with changes in tropical cyclogenesis over the WNP basin between years with high and low SCA. The Asian summer monsoon plays an important role in linking prior winter TPSC to MJO activity in the following summer. During high-SCA years, increased snow cover results in positive soil moisture anomalies and cooling over the Tibetan Plateau, thus weakening the following summer Asian monsoon and weakening associated water vapor advection, while the opposite chain of events occurs in low-SCA years. These changes in high-SCA years are favorable for MJO propagation and are unfavorable for MJO propagation in low-SCA years. Meanwhile, the interannual variation of SCA exerts a significant impact on the upper-tropospheric circulation and thus changes in vertical wind shear. During high-SCA years, there are anomalous upper-level easterlies in the Indian Ocean and upper-level westerlies in the Pacific Ocean, which result in anomalous easterly wind shear in the Indian Ocean and anomalous westerly shear in the Pacific Ocean. The opposite shear pattern arises in low-SCA years. In addition to changes in wind shear, the background vertical motion associated with changes in TPSC may also be partly responsible for changes in MJO activity.

Progress in Simulating the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in CMIP Models

AbstractThe quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) of the zonal mean zonal wind is the primary mode of variability in the tropical lower stratosphere. The QBO is characterized by alternating easterly westerly shear layers that descend down from ∼10 to 100 hPa. The QBO is also seen in lower stratospheric tropical temperature, water vapor, and ozone and affects tropospheric variability through various teleconnections. We examine here the progress in simulating the QBO in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models, more specifically in CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 models. We show that the number of models that are able to simulate the QBO has increased from 0 in CMIP3, to 5 in CMIP5, to 15 in CMIP6. While the number of models with an internally generated QBO has tripled from CMIP5 to CMIP6, the fidelity of the simulation averaged over the CMIP models has not improved. We show that CMIP5 and CMIP6 models represent the QBO period and latitudinal extent quite well; however the QBO amplitude is shifted upwards relative to observations resulting in large underestimation of QBO amplitude at all levels below 20 hPa. The underestimation of QBO amplitude in the lowermost stratosphere and lack of variations downward to the tropopause and below will likely impact the quality of teleconnections seen in the current generation Earth system models.

Effects of Tropospheric Vertical Wind Shear on Gravity Waves Generated by Tropical Cyclones

AbstractThis study investigates the effects of tropospheric vertical wind shear on gravity waves generated by tropical cyclones using idealized tropical cyclone simulations with different vertical profiles of environmental zonal wind. It is found that without shear, gravity wave momentum fluxes are distributed uniformly over a broad spectral range, with fluxes in opposite directions showing symmetry. Westerly shear in the troposphere leads to asymmetry between eastward and westward momentum fluxes, resulting in net westward fluxes and a resultant westward drag forcing on the background flow in the lower stratosphere. Under westerly shear, the active momentum fluxes extend to shorter horizontal wavelengths, and contract to longer periods and slower phase speeds. In addition, clear local peaks appear at large horizontal wavelengths, long periods, and moderate phase speeds, particularly for westward momentum fluxes.

Seasonal, annual, and interannual variability in MLT quasi-two-day waves over the low-latitude region Kolhapur (16.8°N; 74.2°E)

This study presents the quasi-two-day wave (Q2DW) characteristics of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region obtained by taking hourly mean values of horizontal wind velocities for 4 years (August 2013–July 2017) through continuous measurements using a medium-frequency (MF) radar (operating frequency – 1.98 MHz) located at the low-latitude Indian station Kolhapur (16.8°N; 74.2°E). The MF radar located at Kolhapur was upgraded in 2013, and these results of Q2DW have been reported for the first time after upgrading. The present study investigated variability in seasonal, annual, interannual, and solar indices of Q2DWs traveling in zonal (EW) and meridional (NS) components in the MLT region. The Q2DW activity is observed to be stronger during austral summer (January–February) (EW = ∼5 m/s and NS = ∼8–10 m/s) than during boreal summer (June–July) (EW = ∼5 m/s and NS = ∼6–8 m/s). The Q2DW amplitudes are larger in the meridional component than in the zonal one. A strong semiannual oscillation (SAO) has been observed in Q2DWs, with peak during January–February and June–July. In addition, small enhancement is seen in meridional Q2DW in October (∼5–6 m/s). It is observed that the entire spectrum (40–60 h) measured between 86 and 94 km contributes to the SAO amplitudes during January–February and June–July, whereas the waves measured between 42 h and 52 h contribute to enhancement in October similar to that reported elsewhere. In general, the Q2DW amplitude shows large interannual variability. The easterlies developed in the global circulation model in Northern hemisphere during May intensify up to around summer solstice. Q2DW activity peaks during westerly shear zone and intensifies with time at a lower thermospheric altitude (above 90 km). Small positive correlations (r = 0.2 for sunspot number and r = 0.1 for 10.7 cm solar flux) have been observed between Q2DW amplitudes and solar activity.

Momentum Flux of Convective Gravity Waves Derived from an Offline Gravity Wave Parameterization. Part II: Impacts on the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

Abstract The characteristics of small-scale convective gravity waves (CGWs; horizontal wavelengths <100 km) and their contributions to the large-scale flow in the stratosphere, including the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), are investigated using an offline calculation of a source-dependent, physically based CGW parameterization with global reanalysis data from 1979 to 2010. The CGW momentum flux (CGWMF) and CGW drag (CGWD) are calculated from the cloud top (source level) to the upper stratosphere using a Lindzen-type wave propagation scheme. The 32-yr-mean CGWD exhibits large magnitudes in the tropical upper stratosphere and near the stratospheric polar night jet (~60°). The maximum positive drag is 0.1 (1.5) m s−1 day−1, and the maximum negative drag is −0.9 (−0.7) m s−1 day−1 in January (July) between 3 and 1 hPa. In the tropics, the momentum forcing by CGWs at 30 hPa associated with the QBO in the westerly shear zone is 3.5–6 m s−1 month−1, which is smaller than that by Kelvin waves, while that by CGWs in the easterly shear zone (3.1–6 m s−1 month−1) is greater than that by any other equatorial planetary waves or inertio-gravity waves (inertio-GWs). Composite analyses of the easterly QBO (EQBO) and westerly QBO (WQBO) phases reveal that the zonal CGWMF is concentrated near 10°N and that the negative (positive) CGWD extends latitudinally to ±20° (±10°) at 30 hPa. The strongest (weakest) negative CGWD is in March–May (September–November) during the EQBO, and the strongest (weakest) positive CGWD is in June–August (March–May) during the WQBO. The CGWMF and CGWD are generally stronger during El Niño than during La Niña in the equatorial region.

Projection of North Pacific Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trough in CMIP5 Models: Implications for Changes in Tropical Cyclone Formation Locations

The strong westerly shear to the south flank of the tropical upper-tropospheric trough (TUTT) limits the eastward extension of tropical cyclone (TC) formation over the western North Pacific (WNP) and thus the zonal shift of the TUTT in warming scenarios has an important implication for the mean formation location of TCs. The impact of global warming on the zonal shift of the TUTT is investigated by using output from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) of 36 climate models in this study. It is found that considerable spread exists in the zonal position, orientation, and intensity of the simulated-climatologic TUTT in the historical runs, which is forced by observed conditions such as changes in atmospheric composition, solar forcing, and aerosols. The large spread is closely related to the diversity in the simulated SST biases over the North Pacific. Based on the 15 models with relatively high skill in their historical runs, the near-term (2016–35) projection shows no significant change of the TUTT longitude, while the TUTT experiences an eastward shift of 1.9° and 3.2° longitude in the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios in the long-term (2081–2100) projection with considerable intermodel variability. Further examination indicates that the projected changes in the zonal location of the TUTT are also associated with the projected relative SST anomalies over the North Pacific. A stronger (weaker) relative SST warming over the North Pacific favors an eastward (westward) shift of the TUTT, suggesting that the spatial pattern of the future SST change is an important factor for the zonal shift of the mean formation location of TCs.

Factors controlling the seasonality of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

By analyzing observational data, previous studies have indicated that the tropical Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is active during the boreal winter but relatively weak during the boreal summer. However, the factors that control seasonal MJO variation are not clear. To quantitatively understand the relative contributions of the occurrence frequency of enhanced MJO events and their averaged strength and lifespan to seasonal MJO amplitude, we defined the MJO events of 1979–2014 and analyzed their features in different seasons by using the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index and the newly proposed RMM-r index. The results indicate that the MJO events show a higher frequency of occurrence, a stronger intensity and a longer duration during the boreal winter (Dec.–Feb.) and spring (Mar.–May). However, the frequency, strength and lifespan of MJO events are all reduced during the boreal summer (Jun.–Aug.) and autumn (Sep.–Nov.). The enhanced MJO events in winter–spring also show a large ratio of variance for eastward to westward components. To elucidate how large-scale background fields affect seasonal MJO variation, a series of sensitivity experiments was conducted by using a 2.5-layer model that can simulate MJO-like features. It is found that the variation in low-level moisture (vertical wind shear) is the key large-scale factor affecting the seasonal variation in MJO strength (in propagation). In comparison with the summer–autumn seasons when the MJO is relatively weakened, the relatively abundant low-level moisture near the equator during boreal winter–spring may strengthen the development of MJO convection and circulation, whereas the relatively weak easterly shear (or the westerly shear anomaly) is conducive to the enhancement of an eastward-propagating MJO component.

Seasonality and mechanisms of tropical intraseasonal oscillations

This study has compared the monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO) during the boreal summer and Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) during the boreal winter. Based on MISO and MJO in high-resolution three-dimensional diabatic heating, the possible mechanisms are discussed through observational analyses of dynamical and thermodynamical variables. The MISO and MJO are extracted as nonlinear oscillations during boreal summer and winter, respectively, by applying multi-channel singular spectrum analysis on daily anomalies of diabatic heating over the Indo-Pacific region. Lead and lag relations among moisture, temperature and surface fields relative to diabatic heating are analyzed to compare the mechanisms of MISO and MJO. While both the oscillations show eastward propagation, MISO has a strong northward propagation and MJO has a weak southward propagation as well. The analysis shows that MJO and MISO are essentially driven by the same mechanisms but with some difference in the meridional propagation. The westerly shear leads the diabatic heating, while the vorticity has weak correlation. Large-scale circulation creates positive moisture preconditioning before convection and negative moisture preconditioning before suppressed conditions. A positive lower level horizontal advection of temperature and upper level temperature tendencies lead the convective state while a negative lower level horizontal advection of temperature and upper level temperature tendencies lead the suppressed state. There is positive feedback from the SST to atmosphere. The difference in the meridional propagation of MISO and MJO is hypothesized to be because of the different differential heating meridionally during the two seasons.

Excitation mechanism of non-migrating tides

Using an atmosphere-ionosphere coupled model, the excitation source and temporal (seasonal and interannual) variations in non-migrating tides are investigated in this study. We first focus our attention on temporal variations in eastward moving diurnal tide with zonal wavenumber 3 (DE3), which is the largest of all the non-migrating tides in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). Our simulation results indicate that upward propagation of the DE3 excited in the troposphere is sensitive to the zonal mean zonal wind in the stratosphere and mesosphere. The DE3 amplitude is enhanced in the region where the vertical shear of the zonal mean zonal wind is positive (westerly shear). Quasi-2-year variation in the DE3 amplitude in the MLT region is generated by quasi-2-year variation in the zonal mean zonal wind between 40 and 70km, which is modulated by the stratospheric QBO. The excitation mechanisms of SW3 (westward moving semidiurnal tide with zonal wavenumber 3) and SW1 (westward moving semidiurnal tide with zonal wavenumber 1) are also investigated. During equinoxes, the SW3 and SW1 are excited by tropospheric heating (latent heat release and solar radiative heating) associated with cumulus convection in the tropics, and propagate upward into the MLT region. On the other hand, during solstices, SW3 and SW1 are generated in the winter stratosphere and mesosphere through the nonlinear interaction between the stationary planetary wave and migrating semidiurnal tide, and propagate upward to the lower thermosphere. The excitation sources of other non-migrating tides are also discussed.

Tropical temperature variability and Kelvin-wave activity in the UTLS from GPS RO measurements

Abstract. Tropical temperature variability over 10–30 km and associated Kelvin-wave activity are investigated using GPS radio occultation (RO) data from January 2002 to December 2014. RO data are a powerful tool for quantifying tropical temperature oscillations with short vertical wavelengths due to their high vertical resolution and high accuracy and precision. Gridded temperatures from GPS RO show the strongest variability in the tropical tropopause region (on average 3 K2). Large-scale zonal variability is dominated by transient sub-seasonal waves (2 K2), and about half of sub-seasonal variance is explained by eastward-traveling Kelvin waves with periods of 4 to 30 days (1 K2). Quasi-stationary waves associated with the annual cycle and interannual variability contribute about a third (1 K2) to total resolved zonal variance. Sub-seasonal waves, including Kelvin waves, are highly transient in time. Above 20 km, Kelvin waves are strongly modulated by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in stratospheric zonal winds, with enhanced wave activity during the westerly shear phase of the QBO. In the tropical tropopause region, however, peaks of Kelvin-wave activity are irregularly distributed in time. Several peaks coincide with maxima of zonal variance in tropospheric deep convection, but other episodes are not evidently related. Further investigations of convective forcing and atmospheric background conditions are needed to better understand variability near the tropopause.

On the asymmetric distribution of shear-relative typhoon rainfall

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 precipitation, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Final analysis and the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo best-track data during 2000–2015 are used to compare spatial rainfall distribution associated with Northwest Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs) with different vertical wind shear directions and investigate possible mechanisms. Results show that the maximum TC rainfall are all located in the downshear left quadrant regardless of shear direction, and TCs with easterly shear have greater magnitudes of rainfall than those with westerly shear, consistent with previous studies. Rainfall amount of a TC is related to its relative position and proximity from the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the intensity of water vapor transport, and low-level jet is favorable for water vapor transport. The maximum of vertically integrated moisture flux convergence (MFC) are located on the downshear side regardless of shear direction, and the contribution of wind convergence to the total MFC is far larger than that of moisture advection. The cyclonic displacement of the maximum rainfall relative to the maximum MFC is possibly due to advection of hydrometeors by low- and middle-level cyclonic circulation of TCs. The relationship between TC rainfall and the WPSH through water vapor transport and vertical wind shear implies that TC rainfall may be highly predictable given the high predictability of the WPSH.

Stratospheric Aerosols from Major Volcanic Eruptions: A Composition-Climate Model Study of the Aerosol Cloud Dispersal and e-folding Time

Large explosive volcanic eruptions are capable of injecting considerable amounts of particles and sulfur gases above the tropopause, causing large increases in stratospheric aerosols. Five major volcanic eruptions after 1960 (i.e., Agung, St. Helens, El Chichón, Nevado del Ruiz and Pinatubo) have been considered in a numerical study conducted with a composition-climate coupled model including an aerosol microphysics code for aerosol formation and growth. Model results are compared between an ensemble of numerical simulations including volcanic aerosols and their radiative effects (VE) and a reference simulations ensemble (REF) with no radiative impact of the volcanic aerosols. Differences of VE-REF show enhanced diabatic heating rates; increased stratospheric temperatures and mean zonal westerly winds; increased planetary wave amplitude; and tropical upwelling. The impact on stratospheric upwelling is found to be larger when the volcanically perturbed stratospheric aerosol is confined to the tropics, as tends to be the case for eruptions which were followed by several months with easterly shear of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), e.g., the Pinatubo case. Compared to an eruption followed by a period of westerly QBO, such easterly QBO eruptions are quite different, with meridional transport to mid- and high-latitudes occurring later, and at higher altitude, with a consequent decrease in cross-tropopause removal from the stratosphere, and therefore longer decay timescale. Comparing the model-calculated e-folding time of the volcanic aerosol mass during the first year after the eruptions, an increase is found from 8.1 and 10.3 months for El Chichón and Agung (QBO westerly shear), to 14.6 and 30.7 months for Pinatubo and Ruiz (QBO easterly shear). The corresponding e-folding time of the global-mean radiative flux changes goes from 9.1 and 8.0 months for El Chichón and Agung, to 28.7 and 24.5 months for Pinatubo and Ruiz.

A Synoptic-Scale Cold-Reservoir Hypothesis on the Origin of the Mature-Stage Super Cloud Cluster: A Case Study with a Global Nonhydrostatic Model

Abstract This chapter proposes a working assumption as a way of conceptual simplification of the origin of Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO)-associated convection, or super cloud cluster (SCC). To develop the simplification, the importance of the synoptic-scale cold reservoir underlying the convection and its interaction with the accompanying zonal–vertical circulation is highlighted. The position of the convection with respect to that of climatological warm pool is postulated to determine the effectiveness of this framework. The authors introduce a prototype hypothesis to illustrate the usefulness of the above assumption based on a numerical simulation experiment with a global nonhydrostatic model for the boreal summer season. Premises for the hypothesis include 1) that the cloud cluster (CC) is a basic building block of tropical convection accompanying the precipitation-generated cold reservoir in its subcloud layer and 2) that a warm-pool-induced quasi-persistent zonal circulation is key for the upscale organization of CCs. The theory of squall-line structure by Rotunno, Klemp, and Weisman (hereafter RKW) is employed for the interpretation. No account is taken regarding the influences of equatorial waves as a first-order approximation. Given the premises, an SCC of O(1000) km scale is interpretable as a gigantic analog of a multicellular squall line embedded in the quasi-stationary westerly shear branch of the zonal circulation east of the warm water pool. A CC corresponds to the “cell,” and its successive formation to the east and westward movement represents an upshear-tilting core of intense updraft. The upshear-tilted SCC is favorably maintained with the precipitating area being separated from the gust front boundary between the cold reservoir and a low-level easterly, which is supported in the realm of the RKW theory where two horizontal vortices associated with the cold reservoir and vertical shear are opposite in sign but cold reservoir’s vorticity can be inferred to be larger, leading to upshear-tilted and multicellular behavior. As a counterexample, CCs to the west of the warm pool (Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea) are embedded in the easterly shear and organized into a less coherent cloud cluster complex (CCC) given the situation of RKW where two horizontal vortices associated with the cold reservoir and vertical shear are still opposite in sign, but the smaller vertical shear west of the warm pool causes even more suboptimal vorticity imbalance in the western flank of cold reservoir, leading to larger tilt with height and intermittent, less viable storm situations. A cold pool or cold reservoir, having been prevalent in mesoscale convection research, is argued to be important for the MJO as pointed out by the emerging evidence in the international field campaign for the MJO called Cooperative Indian Ocean Experiment on Intraseasonal Variability (CINDY)/DYNAMO. The simplified and idealistic hypothesis proposed here does not cover all aspects of MJO and its validation awaits further modeling and observational studies, but it can offer a framework for characterizing a fundamental aspect of the origin of MJO-associated convection.