West Nile Virus Risk Research Articles

Seroprevalence of dengue, yellow fever, and related flaviviruses among the rural human population in Nguruman and Kerio Valley, Kenya

BackgroundYellow fever virus (YFV) and dengue virus (DENV) are among the major re-emerging arboviruses that pose a significant threat to public health. Their associated burden and prevalence can be substantially underestimated due to insufficient surveillance and inadequate diagnosis. This study aimed to determine evidence of dengue, yellow and related flaviviruses circulation among the rural human populations residing in Nguruman (Kajiado County) and Kerio Valley (Baringo County), two dryland ecosystems in the Kenyan Rift Valley.MethodsSerum samples obtained from febrile patients between 5 and 85 years through a hospital-based cross-sectional survey from July 2020 – May 2023, were screened for neutralizing antibodies to YFV, DENV-2 and related flaviviruses, West Nile virus (WNV) and Zika virus (ZIKV) via Plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT). The study sites and important demographic characteristics were obtained using a structural questionnaire and the data analyzed and seroprevalence compared. A multinomial logistic regression model was done to predict risk for each of the most prevalent viruses with covariates; age, gender, and occupation.ResultsOverall, 54.5% (50.1–59.0% 95% confidence interval (CI) of the samples tested positive for at least one of the four Flaviviruses. The percentage was significantly higher in Kerio Valley (64.34%, 184/286) than in Nguruman (40.2%, 78/194) (P<0.0001). YFV had the highest prevalence, followed by WNV (16.25%), ZIKV (5.2%), and DENV-2 (1%). Kerio Valley had a significantly higher YFV seroprevalence (51%) than Nguruman (6%) (P<0.0001), while DENV-2 was observed only in Nguruman with a low seropositivity of 2%. In contrast to Nguruman, where seropositivity rates were higher in males at 47.47% (P=0.049), in Kerio Valley, females showed considerably higher viral seropositivity at 60.82% than males (P<0001).ConclusionThe study suggests that there is significant circulation of Flaviviruses in both regions, posing a public health risk, that could potentially contribute to clinical disease. However, seropositivity rates vary for each specific site. Furthermore, there could be a risk of YFV, WNV, and ZIKV transmission in both sites with DENV transmission specifically noted in Nguruman. The study findings inform direct cost-effective actions (such as YF vaccines) and precise surveillance data of vector populations for improved disease risk prediction.

SpatMCDA: An R package for assessing areas at risk of infectious diseases based on spatial multi‐criteria decision analysis

Abstract Effective visualization of infectious disease risks is crucial for the development of efficient prevention and control strategies. However, the efficacy of mainstream models is hindered by a scarcity of reliable data in target areas, a situation that is particularly acute when dealing with emerging or re‐emerging infectious diseases. Additionally, these models typically fail to integrate local disease‐related risk factors in line with the ‘One Health’ concept, resulting in inaccurate predictions. Consequently, accurately assessing infectious disease risks without reliable data is challenging. This study introduces SpatMCDA, an innovative R package designed to assess infectious disease risk areas through spatial multi‐criteria decision analysis (MCDA). SpatMCDA is structured around six core modelling steps: standardizing risk factors, determining factor weights, constructing risk maps, performing One‐at‐a‐Time sensitivity analysis, calculating the Mean of Absolute Change Rates and conducting an uncertainty analysis. By examining the case of West Nile virus (WNV) in China, this study illustrates how SpatMCDA can be useful in identifying disease transmission risks in the absence of reliable outbreak data. The assessment identified areas at risk for WNV in northwestern, eastern and southern China. By integrating spatial and epidemiological data, SpatMCDA enhances infectious diseases risk assessment in situations where data are limited. Its efficiency in using available data for accurate risk mapping and adaptability in weighting various risk factors enables tailored analyses. This tool enhances public health strategies, contributing to global health security.

The potential role of the Asian bush mosquito Aedes japonicus as spillover vector for West Nile virus in the Netherlands

BackgroundIn recent years the Asian bush mosquito Aedes japonicus has invaded Europe, including the Netherlands. This species is a known vector for a range of arboviruses, possibly including West Nile virus (WNV). As WNV emerged in the Netherlands in 2020, it is important to investigate the vectorial capacity of mosquito species present in the Netherlands to estimate the risk of future outbreaks and further spread of the virus. Therefore, this study evaluates the potential role of Ae. japonicus in WNV transmission and spillover from birds to dead-end hosts in the Netherlands.MethodsWe conducted human landing collections in allotment gardens (Lelystad, the Netherlands) in June, August and September 2021 to study the diurnal and seasonal host-seeking behaviour of Ae. japonicus. Furthermore, their host preference in relation to birds using live chicken-baited traps was investigated. Vector competence of field-collected Ae. japonicus mosquitoes for two isolates of WNV at two different temperatures was determined. Based on the data generated from these studies, we developed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model to calculate the risk of WNV spillover from birds to humans via Ae. japonicus, under the condition that the virus is introduced and circulates in an enzootic cycle in a given area.ResultsOur results show that Ae. japonicus mosquitoes are actively host seeking throughout the day, with peaks in activity in the morning and evening. Their abundance in August was higher than in June and September. For the host-preference experiment, we documented a small number of mosquitoes feeding on birds: only six blood-fed females were caught over 4 full days of sampling. Finally, our vector competence experiments with Ae. japonicus compared to its natural vector Culex pipiens showed a higher infection and transmission rate when infected with a local, Dutch, WNV isolate compared to a Greek isolate of the virus. Interestingly, we also found a small number of infected Cx. pipiens males with virus-positive leg and saliva samples.ConclusionsCombining the field and laboratory derived data, our model predicts that Ae. japonicus could act as a spillover vector for WNV and could be responsible for a high initial invasion risk of WNV when present in large numbers.Graphical

West Nile virus surveillance using sentinel birds: results of eleven years of testing in corvids in a region of northern Italy.

The natural transmission cycle of West Nile virus (WNV) involves birds as primary hosts and mosquitoes as vectors, but this virus can spread to mammals, human beings included. Asymptomatic infected donors pose a risk to the safety of blood transfusions and organ transplants, as WNV can be transmitted through these medical procedures. Since 2009, the region of Emilia-Romagna in northern Italy has been implementing an integrated surveillance system in order to detect WNV circulation in the environment at an early stage. Here we report the results of the two components of the surveillance system, the active testing of corvids and humans, and demonstrate that bird surveillance alone improves a surveillance system based solely on human case detection. As WNV risk reduction measures are applied on a provincial basis, we assessed the ability of this surveillance system component to detect virus circulation prior to the notification of the first human case for each province. Overall, 99 epidemic seasons were evaluated as a result of 11 years (2013-2023) of surveillance in the nine provinces of the region. In this period, 22,314 corvids were tested for WNV and 642 (2.9%) were found to be infected. WNV was generally first detected in birds in July, with sample prevalence peaks occurring between August and September. During the same period, 469 autochthonous human cases were notified, about 60% of which were reported in August. WNV was detected 79 times out of the 99 seasons considered. The virus was notified in birds 73 times (92.4%) and 60 times (75.9%) in humans. WNV was first or only notified in birds in 57 seasons (72.1%), while it was first or only notified in humans in 22 seasons (27.8%). Active surveillance in corvids generally allows the detection of WNV before the onset of human cases. Failure of virus detection occurred mainly in seasons where the number of birds tested was low. Our results show that active testing of a minimum of 3.8 corvids per 100 km2 provides a satisfactory timeliness in the virus detection, but for early detection of WNV it is crucial to test birds between mid-June and mid-August.

West Nile Virus Meningoencephalitis—A Consideration for Earlier Investigation

West Nile Virus (WNV) is an arbovirus endemic to many countries and has caused over 56,000 cases, with 2776 deaths in the U.S. from 1999 to 2022. WNV occurs most often in the fall, typically affecting elderly populations in states like Nebraska and Arizona. Currently, supportive care is the only management for WNV. Our case is a female patient in her mid-70s in an intermountain state who presented in the fall with WNV meningoencephalitis and experienced a delay in care due to the unique clinical presentation. This demonstrates the importance of early inclusion of WNV in the differential for altered mental status, especially with WNV risk factors, and expedition of supportive care. Doing so could potentially reduce antibiotic duration and hospital costs.

Long-term trends and spatial patterns of West Nile Virus emergence in California, 2004-2021.

West Nile Virus (WNV) has remained a persistent source of vector-borne disease risk in California since first being identified in the state in 2003. The geographic distribution of WNV activity is relatively widespread, but varies considerably across different regions within the state. Spatial variation in human WNV infection depends upon social-ecological factors that influence mosquito populations and virus transmission dynamics. Measuring changes in spatial patterns over time is necessary for uncovering the underlying regional drivers of disease risk. In this study, we utilized statewide surveillance data to quantify temporal changes and spatial patterns of WNV activity in California. We obtained annual WNV mosquito surveillance data from 2004 through 2021 from the California Arbovirus Surveillance Program. Geographic coordinates for mosquito pools were analysed using a suite of spatial statistics to identify and classify patterns in WNV activity over time. We detected clear patterns of non-random WNV risk during the study period, including emerging hot spots in the Central Valley and non-random periods of oscillating WNV risk in Southern and Northern California subregions. Our findings offer new insights into 18 years of spatio-temporal variation in WNV activity across California, which may be used for targeted surveillance efforts and public health interventions.

A Spatially Resolved and Environmentally Informed Forecast Model of West Nile Virus in Coachella Valley, California.

West Nile virus (WNV) is the most significant arbovirus in the United States in terms of both morbidity and mortality. West Nile exists in a complex transmission cycle between avian hosts and the arthropod vector, Culex spp. mosquitoes. Human spillover events occur when humans are bitten by an infected mosquito and predicting these rates of infection and therefore the risk to humans may be associated with fluctuations in environmental conditions. In this study, we evaluate the hydrological and meteorological drivers associated with mosquito biology and viral development to determine if these associations can be used to forecast seasonal mosquito infection rates with WNV in the Coachella Valley of California. We developed and tested a spatially resolved ensemble forecast model of the WNV mosquito infection rate in the Coachella Valley using 17years of mosquito surveillance data and North American Land Data Assimilation System-2 environmental data. Our multi-model inference system indicated that the combination of a cooler and dryer winter, followed by a wetter and warmer spring, and a cooler than normal summer was most predictive of the prevalence of West Nile positive mosquitoes in the Coachella Valley. The ability to make accurate early season predictions of West Nile risk has the potential to allow local abatement districts and public health entities to implement early season interventions such as targeted adulticiding and public health messaging before human transmission occurs. Such early and targeted interventions could better mitigate the risk of WNV to humans.

Quantifying the invasion risk of West Nile virus: Insights from a multi-vector and multi-host SEIR model

The invasion of vector-borne diseases depends on the type of specific features of the vector and hosts at play. Within the Culex pipiens complex, differences in ecology, biology, and vector competence can influence the risk of West Nile virus (WNV) outbreaks. To determine which life-history traits affect WNV invasion into susceptible communities the most, we constructed an epidemiological Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model with three vector (eco)types, Culex pipiens pipiens, Cx. pip. molestus, and their hybrids, and two vertebrate hosts, birds (as amplifying hosts) and humans (as dead-end hosts). We investigated how differences in feeding preferences and transmission rates influenced WNV transmission across different habitats and two seasons (Spring versus Summer), to investigate the impact of increasing mosquitoes on the WNV transmission risk. Our results showed that vector feeding preferences and the transmission rate between mosquitoes and birds were the parameters that most influenced WNV invasion risk. Even though our model did not predict WNV invasion across any of the studied environments, we found that natural habitats displayed the highest susceptibility to WNV invasion. Pipiens (eco)type acted as the primary vector in all habitats. Hybrids, contrary to common opinion, showed minimal involvement in WNV transmission. However, it is important to interpret our study results with caution due to the possibility of idealized spring and summer seasons being reflected in the field-collected data. Our study could be a tool to enhance current vector surveillance and control programs by targeting specific vector types in specific environments, especially in natural habitat, which are most responsive to environmental shifts. The joint approach based on epidemiological modelling based on field collected data can help to reduce wasted time and economic costs while maximizing the efficiency of local public health authorities.

Assessing the Influence of Climate on the Spatial Pattern of West Nile Virus Incidence in the United States.

West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in humans in the United States. Since the introduction of the disease in 1999, incidence levels have stabilized in many regions, allowing for analysis of climate conditions that shape the spatial structure of disease incidence. Our goal was to identify the seasonal climate variables that influence the spatial extent and magnitude of WNV incidence in humans. We developed a predictive model of contemporary mean annual WNV incidence using U.S. county-level case reports from 2005 to 2019 and seasonally averaged climate variables. We used a random forest model that had an out-of-sample model performance of . Our model accurately captured the V-shaped area of higher WNV incidence that extends from states on the Canadian border south through the middle of the Great Plains. It also captured a region of moderate WNV incidence in the southern Mississippi Valley. The highest levels of WNV incidence were in regions with dry and cold winters and wet and mild summers. The random forest model classified counties with average winter precipitation levels as having incidence levels over 11 times greater than those of counties that are wetter. Among the climate predictors, winter precipitation, fall precipitation, and winter temperature were the three most important predictive variables. We consider which aspects of the WNV transmission cycle climate conditions may benefit the most and argued that dry and cold winters are climate conditions optimal for the mosquito species key to amplifying WNV transmission. Our statistical model may be useful in projecting shifts in WNV risk in response to climate change. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP10986.

An African West Nile virus risk map for travellers and clinicians.

International travellers are exposed to pathogens not commonly found in their countries of residence, including West Nile virus (WNV). Due to the difficulty of its diagnosis, little is known about its distribution in Africa. Understanding the geographic extent of risk of WNV infections is a necessity for both travellers and clinicians who advise and treat them, since there is no human vaccine. To date, there is no risk map for WNV infections in humans in Africa. Having a high-resolution risk map for the virus could be of relevance before the trip, to take preventive measures, and after the trip, for appropriate diagnosis of the disease. Virus detection in humans along the African continent were collected from official reports, and published scientific research for the period 1940 to 2020, and then geo-referenced in order to use biogeographical modelling for WNV. Models were based on fuzzy logic and machine learning algorithms and were designed to identify the environmental drivers that explain the distribution of human cases and to locate favourable areas for infections. We elaborated a high-resolution risk map for WNV infections that highlights favourable areas for infections in Africa. Although WNV infections are widely spread across Africa, the risk of the disease is not homogenously distributed. Popular tourist destinations such as Morocco, Tunisia, and South Africa, are high-risk areas for WNV infection.

European projections of West Nile virus transmission under climate change scenarios

West Nile virus (WNV), a mosquito-borne zoonosis, has emerged as a disease of public health concern in Europe. Recent outbreaks have been attributed to suitable climatic conditions for its vectors favoring transmission. However, to date, projections of the risk for WNV expansion under climate change scenarios is lacking. Here, we estimate the WNV-outbreaks risk for a set of climate change and socioeconomic scenarios. We delineate the potential risk-areas and estimate the growth in the population at risk (PAR).We used supervised machine learning classifier, XGBoost, to estimate the WNV-outbreak risk using an ensemble climate model and multi-scenario approach. The model was trained by collating climatic, socioeconomic, and reported WNV-infections data (2010−22) and the out-of-sample results (1950–2009, 2023–99) were validated using a novel Confidence-Based Performance Estimation (CBPE) method. Projections of area specific outbreak risk trends, and corresponding population at risk were estimated and compared across scenarios.Our results show up to 5-fold increase in West Nile virus (WNV) risk for 2040-60 in Europe, depending on geographical region and climate scenario, compared to 2000-20. The proportion of disease-reported European land areas could increase from 15% to 23-30%, putting 161 to 244 million people at risk. Across scenarios, Western Europe appears to be facing the largest increase in the outbreak risk of WNV. The increase in the risk is not linear but undergoes periods of sharp changes governed by climatic thresholds associated with ideal conditions for WNV vectors. The increased risk will require a targeted public health response to manage the expansion of WNV with climate change in Europe.

Spatiotemporal distribution of vector mosquito species and areas at risk for arbovirus transmission in Maricopa County, Arizona

Mosquito-borne diseases are a major global public health concern and mosquito surveillance systems are essential for the implementation of effective mosquito control strategies. The objective of our study is to determine the spatiotemporal distribution of vector mosquito species in Maricopa County, AZ from 2011 to 2021, and to identify the hotspot areas for West Nile virus (WNV) and St. Louis Encephalitis virus (SLEV) transmission in 2021. The Maricopa County Mosquito Control surveillance system utilizes BG-Sentinel and EVS-CDC traps throughout the entire urban and suburban areas of the county. We estimated specific mosquito species relative abundance per unit area using the Kernel density estimator in ArcGIS 10.2. We calculated the distance between all traps in the surveillance system and created a 4 km buffer radius around each trap to calculate the extent to which each trap deviated from the mean number of Culex quinquefasciatus and Culex tarsalis collected in 2021. Our results show that vector mosquito species are widely distributed and abundant in the urban areas of Maricopa County. A total of 691,170Cx. quinquefasciatus, 542,733 Cx. tarsalis, and 292,305 Aedes aegypti were collected from 2011 to 2022. The relative abundance of Ae. aegypti was highly seasonal peaking in the third and fourth quarters of the year. Culex quinquefasciatus, on the other hand, was abundant throughout the year with several regions consistently yielding high numbers of mosquitoes. Culex tarsalis was abundant but it only reached high numbers in well-defined areas near irrigated landscapes. We also detected high levels of heterogeneity in the risk of WNV and SLEV transmission to humans disregarding traps geographical proximity. The well-defined species-specific spatiotemporal and geographical patterns found in this study can be used to inform vector control operations.

Statistical Tools for West Nile Virus Disease Analysis.

West Nile virus (WNV) is the most widespread arbovirus in the world and endemic to much of the United States. Its range continues to expand as land use patterns change, creating more habitable environments for the mosquito vector. Though WNV is endemic, the year-to-year risk is highly variable, thus making it difficult to understand the risk for human spillover events. Abatement districts monitor for infected mosquitoes to help understand these potential risks and to help guide our understanding of the risk posed by these observed infected mosquitoes. Creating optimal monitoring networks will provide more informed decision-making tools for abatement districts and policy makers. Investment in these monitoring networks that capture robust observations on mosquito infection rates will allow for environmentally informed inference systems to help guide decision-making and WNV risk. In turn, enhanced decision-making tools allow for faster response times of more targeted and economical surveillance and mosquito population reduction efforts and the overall reduction of WNV transmission. Here we discuss the data streams, their processing, and specifically three ways to calculate WNV infection rates in mosquitoes.

West Nile virus: another emerging arboviral risk for travelers?

Purpose of ReviewWest Nile virus (WNV) is an arbovirus transmitted by mosquitos of the genus Culex. Manifestations of WNV infection range from asymptomatic to devastating neuroinvasive disease leading to flaccid paralysis and death. This review examines WNV epidemiology and ecology, with an emphasis on travel-associated infection.Recent FindingsWNV is widespread, including North America and Europe, where its range has expanded in the past decade. Rising temperatures in temperate regions are predicted to lead to an increased abundance of Culex mosquitoes and an increase in their ability to transmit WNV. Although the epidemiologic patterns of WNV appear variable, its geographic distribution most certainly will continue to increase. Travelers are at risk for WNV infection and its complications. Literature review identified 39 cases of documented travel-related WNV disease, the majority of which resulted in adverse outcomes, such as neuroinvasive disease, prolonged recovery period, or death.SummaryThe prediction of WNV risk is challenging due to the complex interactions of vector, pathogen, host, and environment. Travelers planning to visit endemic areas should be advised regarding WNV risk and mosquito bite prevention. Evaluation of ill travelers with compatible symptoms should consider the diagnosis of WNV for those visiting in endemic areas as well as for those returning from destinations with known WNV circulation.

Integrated Forecasts Based on Public Health Surveillance and Meteorological Data Predict West Nile Virus in a High-Risk Region of North America

Background:West Nile virus (WNV), a global arbovirus, is the most prevalent mosquito-transmitted infection in the United States. Forecasts of WNV risk during the upcoming transmission season could provide the basis for targeted mosquito control and disease prevention efforts. We developed the Arbovirus Mapping and Prediction (ArboMAP) WNV forecasting system and used it in South Dakota from 2016 to 2019. This study reports a post hoc forecast validation and model comparison.Objectives:Our objective was to validate historical predictions of WNV cases with independent data that were not used for model calibration. We tested the hypothesis that predictive models based on mosquito surveillance data combined with meteorological variables were more accurate than models based on mosquito or meteorological data alone.Methods:The ArboMAP system incorporated models that predicted the weekly probability of observing one or more human WNV cases in each county. We compared alternative models with different predictors including a) a baseline model based only on historical WNV cases, b) mosquito models based on seasonal patterns of infection rates, c) environmental models based on lagged meteorological variables, including temperature and vapor pressure deficit, d) combined models with mosquito infection rates and lagged meteorological variables, and e) ensembles of two or more combined models. During the WNV season, models were calibrated using data from previous years and weekly predictions were made using data from the current year. Forecasts were compared with observed cases to calculate the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and other metrics of spatial and temporal prediction error.Results:Mosquito and environmental models outperformed the baseline model that included county-level averages and seasonal trends of WNV cases. Combined models were more accurate than models based only on meteorological or mosquito infection variables. The most accurate model was a simple ensemble mean of the two best combined models. Forecast accuracy increased rapidly from early June through early July and was stable thereafter, with a maximum AUC of 0.85. The model predictions captured the seasonal pattern of WNV as well as year-to-year variation in case numbers and the geographic pattern of cases.Discussion:The predictions reached maximum accuracy early enough in the WNV season to allow public health responses before the peak of human cases in August. This early warning is necessary because other indicators of WNV risk, including early reports of human cases and mosquito abundance, are poor predictors of case numbers later in the season. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP10287

Early start of seasonal transmission and co-circulation of West Nile virus lineage 2 and a newly introduced lineage 1 strain, northern Italy, June 2022.

In spring 2022, Europe faced an unprecedented heatwave, increasing the risk of West Nile virus (WNV) outbreaks. As early as 7 June 2022, WNV was detected in Culex mosquitoes in northern Italy, and – in the following days – in two blood donors, a patient with encephalitis, wild birds and additional mosquito pools. Genome sequencing demonstrated co-circulation of WNV lineage 2 and a newly introduced WNV lineage 1, which was discovered in the region in 2021.

The Impact of Adulticide on Culex Abundance and Infection Rate in North Shore of Cook County, Illinois.

Mosquito surveillance is critical to reduce the risk of West Nile virus (WNV) transmission to humans. In response to surveillance indicators such as elevated mosquito abundance or increased WNV levels, many mosquito control programs will perform truck-mounted ultra-low volume (ULV) adulticide application to reduce the number of mosquitoes and associated virus transmission. Despite the common use of truck-based ULV adulticiding as a public health measure to reduce WNV prevalence, limited evidence exists to support a role in reducing viral transmission to humans. We use a generalized additive and fused ridge regression model to quantify the location-specific impact of truck-mounted ULV adulticide spray efforts from 2010 to 2018 in the North Shore Mosquito Abatement District (NSMAD) in metropolitan Chicago, IL, on commonly assessed risk factors from NSMAD surveillance gravid traps: Culex abundance, infection rate, and vector index. Our model also takes into account environmental variables commonly associated with WNV, including temperature, precipitation, wind speed, location, and week of year. Since it is unlikely ULV adulticide spraying will have the same impact at each trap location, we use a spatially varying spray effect with a fused ridge penalty to determine how the effect varies by trap location. We found that ULV adulticide spraying has an immediate temporary reduction in abundance followed by an increase after 5 days. It is estimated that mosquito abundance increased more in sprayed areas than if left unsprayed in all but 3 trap locations. The impact on infection rate and vector index were inconclusive due to the large error associated with estimating trap-specific infection rates.

Development of an Index to Measure West Nile Virus Transmission Risk in New Jersey Counties

We developed an index for use by New Jersey counties to measure West Nile virus (WNV) transmission risk to the human population. We used a latent profile analysis to develop the index, identifying categories of environmental conditions associated with WNV transmission risk to humans. The final model included 4 indicators of transmission risk: mosquito abundance and minimum field infection rate, temperature, and human case count. We used data from 2004 to 2018 from all 21 New Jersey counties aggregated into 11 2-wk units per county per year (N = 3,465). Three WNV risk classes were identified. The Low Risk class had low levels of all variables. The Moderate Risk class had high abundance, average temperature levels, and low levels of the other variables. The High Risk class had substantially above average human case likelihood, average temperature, and high mosquito infection rates. These results suggest the presence of 3 distinct WNV risk profiles, which can be used to guide the development of public health actions intended to mitigate WNV transmission risk to the human population.

Condition-Specific Competitive Effects of the Invasive Mosquito Aedes albopictus on the Resident Culex pipiens among Different Urban Container Habitats May Explain Their Coexistence in the Field.

Simple SummaryIt is important to understand the social and ecological factors that affect mosquito invasions to better assess impacts on resident communities, identify disease risks, and coordinate control efforts. Condition-specific competition, when environmental conditions alter the outcome of competition, can foster the persistence of resident species after the invasion of a competitively superior invader. We test whether condition-specific competition can help the resident Culex pipiens persist with the competitively superior invasive mosquito Aedes albopictus in water from different urban container habitats. We tested the effects of A. albopictus on C. pipiens’ survival and development in water collected from common functional and discarded containers in Baltimore, Maryland, USA. We found increased densities of A. albopictus negatively affected the survivorship and development of C. pipiens in water from discarded, but not functional, containers, driven mainly by water from trash cans. These results suggest that the contents of different urban containers alter the effects of A. albopictus on C. pipiens and that trash cans, in particular, facilitate the persistence of C. pipiens. Because C. pipiens is the main mosquito species that spreads West Nile virus in many urban areas, controlling its production from trash cans might help manage West Nile virus risks.Condition-specific competition, when environmental conditions alter the outcome of competition, can foster the persistence of resident species after the invasion of a competitively superior invader. We test whether condition-specific competition can facilitate the areawide persistence of the resident and principal West Nile virus vector mosquito Culex pipiens with the competitively superior invasive Aedes albopictus in water from different urban container habitats. (2) Methods: We tested the effects of manipulated numbers of A. albopictus on C. pipiens’ survival and development in water collected from common functional and discarded containers in Baltimore, MD, USA. The experiment was conducted with typical numbers of larvae found in field surveys of C. pipiens and A. albopictus and container water quality. (3) Results: We found increased densities of A. albopictus negatively affected the survivorship and development of C. pipiens in water from discarded containers but had little effect in water from functional containers. This finding was driven by water from trash cans, which allowed consistently higher C. pipiens’ survival and development and had greater mean ammonia and nitrate concentrations that can promote microbial food than other container types. (4) Conclusions: These results suggest that the contents of different urban containers alter the effects of invasive A. albopictus competition on resident C. pipiens, that trash cans, in particular, facilitate the persistence of C. pipiens, and that there could be implications for West Nile virus risk as a result.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of West Nile Virus Epidemic in South Banat District, Serbia, 2017-2019.

Simple SummaryWest Nile fever is an arthropod-borne viral disease that is transmitted from birds to humans and animals by mosquitoes. Humans may develop a severe disease, which sometimes can be fatal. At the end of the 20th century, the first outbreaks of West Nile fever among humans in urban environments in Eastern Europe and the United States were reported. The epidemics were characterized by the neurological form of the disease with a fatal outcome. Since the first outbreak of the disease in Serbia, the highest number of cases occurred in 2018. West Nile fever spread is driven by location and time, which means nearby locations and periods have similar features. Recognition of patterns of spread of the disease has the potential to facilitate the mosquito control program and disease prevention. This study aimed to examine the geographical and temporal similarities of registered cases during the epidemics in the period 2017–2019 in South Banat District, Serbia. We identified the following factors as crucial for the prediction of possible outbreaks: the presence of virus in natural reservoirs, mosquito abundance; precipitation, high water level of rivers followed by a consequent sudden decrease of precipitation and withdrawal of rivers into the main bed, and favorable temperatures.West Nile virus (WNV) is an arthropod-born pathogen, which is transmitted from wild birds through mosquitoes to humans and animals. At the end of the 20th century, the first West Nile fever (WNF) outbreaks among humans in urban environments in Eastern Europe and the United States were reported. The disease continued to spread to other parts of the continents. In Serbia, the largest number of WNV-infected people was recorded in 2018. This research used spatial statistics to identify clusters of WNV infection in humans and animals in South Banat County, Serbia. The occurrence of WNV infection and risk factors were analyzed using a negative binomial regression model. Our research indicated that climatic factors were the main determinant of WNV distribution and were predictors of endemicity. Precipitation and water levels of rivers had an important influence on mosquito abundance and affected the habitats of wild birds, which are important for maintaining the virus in nature. We found that the maximum temperature of the warmest part of the year and the annual temperature range; and hydrographic variables, e.g., the presence of rivers and water streams were the best environmental predictors of WNF outbreaks in South Banat County.