West East Regions Research Articles

Integrating Estimation of Inflation Threshold and Nowcasting Regional Economic Growth Using Classical, Machine Learning, and Ensemble Method

In line with the global economic recovery, Indonesia's post-pandemic economic recovery is experiencing major challenge caused by uncertainty due to increasing inflationary pressure. Efforts to reduce inflationary fluctuations were carried out by the government in order to maintain optimal economic growth under the inflation targeting policy framework. Hence it is necessary to inspect the inflation threshold for economic growth in determining the inflation target. This study attempts to integrate inflation threshold estimation and nowcasting modelling of regional economic growth as an early warning system for achieving the government's economic growth target by utilizing several classical, machine learning, and ensemble models. Threshold estimation for the National level and East Java is applied to provincial groups obtained from clustering time series with dynamic time wrapping (DTW), author's justification, and the west-east region. In addition, estimates were also carried out in the period before Covid-19 as well as the entire period and the addition of predictor variables to test the sensitivity of the inflation threshold estimate. The results show that there was a non-linear relationship between inflation and economic growth with an inverted U shape. There are differences in the inflation threshold range due to provincial groupings, addition of control variables, both for the National level and for East Java. Evaluation of the inflation level in East Java and eight cities shows that in several periods, East Java inflation has exceeded Bank Indonesia's ITF target. Taking into account the estimated threshold range, it is recommended to set a more flexible inflation target at the regional economic level. Finally, the results of nowcasting with several specifications, such as the use of machine learning models and weighted ensemble models based on accuracy, as well as out-sample predictions with one-step ahead can improve the accuracy and consistency of the model for both short-term and long-term.

SOLUSI ALTERNATIF MENGATASI PARADOK PEMBANGUNAN:


 ABSTRACT
 The aim of the research is to conduct a critical analysis of the paradox of development in Indonesia. from time to time, while looking for alternative solutions in the perspective of Islamic economic thought. This study is to answer the problem: Why does the megadiversity that is owned do not provide welfare and prosperity for most of its citizens. Why natural wealth has not given much blessing and benefit; What and how Islamic economic thought answers the issue. The research method used is qualitative descriptive analysis and tracking of Islamic economic literacy. The data used is a combination of primary and secondary data from various reference sources: books, journals and printed and online mass media literacy. The results of the study show that from year to year, in the alternation of the ruling political regime, the Indonesian economy grew positively. Statistically, the value of our Gross Domestic Product (GDP) continues to increase. Even so per capita income always rises from time to time. However, there are still dozens of Indonesians who are still classified as poor. Improved economic growth after the global economic crisis did not provide prosperity, justice and benefit evenly. The gap is still wide open between rich-poor, city-area, West-East region. This happened because there was something wrong in the management of natural resources, the corrupt behavior of state and regional administrators, the unequal development between Java and outside Java, between the West and the East, the dominance of foreign capitalist companies, the optimal excavation and management of ZISWAF, and still not yet grounded the application of Islamic economics in Indonesia. So, to get out of the problem and improve from the chronic problem, six strategic steps are needed: (1) to eradicate KKN indiscriminately in all SOEs and government bureaucracy; (2) improvements in the management of the country's wealth resources; (3) it is necessary to design policies and budgets to accelerate poverty and inequality reduction, by allocating more funds to projects that absorb a lot; (4) reviewing policies that are not pro-people; (5) optimizing and maximizing the excavation and management of zakat, infaq, alms and endowments (ZISWAF); (6) facilitating Islamic economic and financial growth.
 Keywords: development paradigm, growth, poverty, Islamic economy, people's welfare.

Assessment of Physico-chemical Water Quality of Birecik Dam, Şanlıurfa, West East Region, Turkey

In year 2013, onsite seasonal measurements have been carried out in 4 different points of Birecik Reservoir, and water samples have been taken from surface and different depths. Physical and chemical parameters have been investigated in taken water samples. The result of analysis were obtained in the following range pH (6.98-9), temperature (9.9-26 °C), electrical conductivity (275-373 µs/cm), sodium ( 19.93-22.06 mg/L), potassium (1.-2.2 mg/L), chloride/11.68-21.4, hardness (179-210 mg/L), calcium (41.66-52.9 mg/L), magnesium ((17-18.35 mg/L), sulphate (27.92-43.48 mg/L), dissolved oxygen (7.92-8.83 mg/L), chemical oxygen (0.25-8.70 mg/L), nitrate (0.62-2.48 mg/L), nitrate (0.001-0.008), ammonium (0.01-0.07), phosphate (0.001-0.031 mg/L). The samples were compared with standard values recommended by world health (WHO). The study finalize that Birecik reservoir which was declared to be a threat to the water quality should be arrested at denitrification and nutrient control to halt the degradation of the water.

Herpetofauna, provinces of Chaco and Formosa, Chaco Oriental region, north-eastern Argentina

Oriental Chaco, part of the Great American Chaco, embraces a plain area with soft slopes towards the west-east region. In this region, different kinds of landscapes and vegetation converge, both conditioned by topographical and pluviometric gradients. This region undergoes processes of fragmentation and habitat loss due to intense human activities such as deforestation, agricultural exploitation, construction of a dam, and pollution. In order to contribute to the knowledge of the Oriental Chaco biodiversity, we studied the herpetofauna during one year. We sampled four sites between the coordinates 25° 00' S, 58° 00' W and 27º 00' S, 61º 00' W in the provinces of Chaco and Formosa. Eighty-eight species were registered in the studied places. The higher biodiversity was in grid 46.