West African Monsoon System Research Articles

West African Monsoon System’s Responses to Global Ocean–Regional Atmosphere Coupling

Abstract This study explores the added value (AV) of a regional Earth system model (ESM) compared to an atmosphere-only regional climate model (RCM) in simulating West African monsoon (WAM) rainfall. The primary goals are to foster discussions on the suitability of coupled RCMs for WAM projections and deepen our understanding of ocean–atmosphere coupling’s influence on the WAM system. The study employs results from dynamical downscaling of the ERA-Interim reanalysis and Max Plank Institute ESM, low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR), by two RCMs, atmosphere only (REMO) and REMO coupled with Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM) (ROM), at ∼25-km horizontal resolution. Results show that in regions distant from coupling domain boundaries such as West Africa (WA), constraint conditions from ERA-Interim are more beneficial than coupling effects. REMO, reliant on oceanic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from observations and influenced by ERA-Interim, is biased under coupling conditions, although coupling offers potential advantages in representing heat and mass fluxes. Contrastingly, as intended, coupling improves SSTs and monsoon fluxes’ relationships under ESM-forced conditions. In this latter case, the coupling features a dipole-like spatial structure of AV, improving precipitation over the Guinea Coast but degrading precipitation over half of the Sahel. Our extensive examination of physical processes and mechanisms underpinning the WAM system supports the plausibility of AV. Additionally, we found that the monsoonal dynamics over the ocean respond to convective activity, with the Sahara–Sahel surface temperature gradient serving as the maintenance mechanism. While further efforts are needed to enhance the coupled RCM, we advocate for its use in the context of WAM rainfall forecasts and projections.

Droughts and heatwaves in the West African monsoon system

AbstractHeatwaves and droughts increasingly impact public health and societal system in a world subject to global warming. Several studies reported these phenomena all around the world, but there is a dearth of research specifically in West Africa. This study fills that gap by comparing heatwave/heat stress and drought occurrence in three climate zones (Guinea, Sudan and Sahel) of West Africa from 1981 to 2020. The analysis focuses on the comparison of station and gridded datasets. The Cumulative Excess Heat (CumHeat) and the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) are considered for heatwaves. For drought, the Standardized Precipitation (Evapotranspiration) Index SPI (SPEI) are used at 3‐, 6‐ and 12‐month scales. Both heatwave and drought characteristics are investigated as well as their co‐occurrence (D‐HW). The investigation reveals a good correlation between station and gridded datasets for drought indices. While station data records fewer and less intense heatwave, gridded data indicates longer‐lasting heat extremes. The study also demonstrates a strong agreement between the UTCI computed from the Rayman model and ERA5‐HEAT dataset, despite timing discrepancies, especially along the Guinea coast. The Sahel region is found to endure higher heat stress levels, with increasing intensity of heatwaves over time. Notably, the study uncovers an increasing frequency of compound D‐HW in all zones, especially the Sudan and Sahel zones, offering new insights into the climatic challenges faced by West Africa. These findings emphasize the critical need for improved planning and early warning systems (EWS) to mitigate the impacts of these climate extremes ecosystems and human health.

Moisture Dependence of an African Easterly Wave Within the West African Monsoon System

AbstractThe growth and propagation of African easterly waves (AEWs) remains an active area of research, especially for those that become tropical cyclones (TCs). This is partly due to the complex role of moisture, realized through AEW‐convection interactions. The goal of this study is to understand how environmental moisture plays a role in influencing the growth and propagation of a case of an AEW‐convection system, that became a TC and how that role relates to the West African Monsoon System. Moisture sensitivity experiments were performed in a regional and convection‐permitting novel configuration. It is found that in a moister environment, diabatic heating associated with convection coupled to the wave is shallower, ultimately, weakening the wave amplitude. Energetics are reduced in a moister environment as the African easterly jet strengthens, yet narrows, and shifts northward limiting interaction with the monsoon and the wave‐convection system. The more intense monsoonal flow in a moister environment can instigate the decoupling between convection and AEW as deep convection is more likely in the ridge rather than in the trough region. Over western Africa, more continuous rainfall over the Guinea Highlands can inhibit phase locking with the AEW. In a moister environment, the mean zonal flow is weaker and as a result, the westward translation speed of the wave due to mean flow advection is slower than in the other experiments. While the mean flow advection dominates the translation, further differences in phase speed arise from differences in convection within the wave.

Quantifying uncertainty in simulations of the West African monsoon with the use of surrogate models

Abstract. Simulating the West African monsoon (WAM) system using numerical weather and climate models suffers from large uncertainties, which are difficult to assess due to nonlinear interactions between different components of the WAM. Here we present a fundamentally new approach to the problem by approximating the behavior of a numerical model – here the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) model – through a statistical surrogate model based on universal kriging, a general form of Gaussian process regression, which allows for a comprehensive global sensitivity analysis. The main steps of our analysis are as follows: (i) identify the most important uncertain model parameters and their probability density functions, for which we employ a new strategy dealing with non-uniformity in the kriging process. (ii) Define quantities of interest (QoIs) that represent general meteorological fields, such as temperature, pressure, cloud cover and precipitation, as well as the prominent WAM features, namely the tropical easterly jet, African easterly jet, Saharan heat low (SHL) and intertropical discontinuity. (iii) Apply a sampling strategy with regard to the kriging method to identify model parameter combinations which are used for numerical modeling experiments. (iv) Conduct ICON model runs for identified model parameter combinations over a nested limited-area domain from 28° W to 34° E and from 10° S to 34° N. The simulations are run for August in 4 different years (2016 to 2019) to capture the peak northward penetration of rainfall into West Africa, and QoIs are computed based on the mean response over the whole month in all years. (v) Quantify sensitivity of QoIs to uncertain model parameters in an integrated and a local analysis. The results show that simple isolated relationships between single model parameters and WAM QoIs rarely exist. Changing individual parameters affects multiple QoIs simultaneously, reflecting the physical links between them and the complexity of the WAM system. The entrainment rate in the convection scheme and the terminal fall velocity of ice particles show the greatest effects on the QoIs. Larger values of these two parameters reduce cloud cover and precipitation and intensify the SHL. The entrainment rate primarily affects 2 m temperature and 2 m dew point temperature and causes latitudinal shifts, whereas the terminal fall velocity of ice mostly affects cloud cover. Furthermore, the parameter that controls the evaporative soil surface has a major effect on 2 m temperature, 2 m dew point temperature and cloud cover. The results highlight the usefulness of surrogate models for the analysis of model uncertainty and open up new opportunities to better constrain model parameters through a comparison of the model output with selected observations.

Heat band, rain band and heat low migration: process-based evaluation of some CMIP6 GCMs over West Africa

Climate model evaluation presents a crucial pathway into the investigation of the simulation of future climate. It presents the only lens through which the future states of the climate of the planet can be explored. In this study, reference datasets including reanalysis products have been used to demonstrate the climatological annual migration of the West African Monsoon System (WAMS) in three components, namely, the West African Heat Low (WAHL), the West African Heat Band (WAHB) and the West African Rain Band (WARB). We have used 8 Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to assess how the models represent the climatological annual migration of these three features over the same domain for the same period. The results show close linkages between the WAHL, WAHB and the WARB as signature components of the WAMS in their climatological annual dynamics. All three features migrate from the south (with the minimum intensities) in January to the north (with the maximum intensities) in August over the region. The GCMs represent the climatological annual dynamics of all three features to some extent. However, in most of the models analysed the WAHL is too weak, and the WAHB and WARB are located too far south. Insights from this study can be beneficial for investigations of the future state of the WAMS. Also, development of models for the region should target the improved simulation of these features, specifically the intensity of the WAHL, and the locations of the WAHB and WARB.

Changes in the West Africa Monsoon Precipitation Extremes during ENSO developing Phases

ABSTRACT A 37-year record of rainfall gridded data covering West Africa and a Global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) dataset are used to investigate the remote influence of SST anomalies in the Equatorial Pacific on the interannual variability of West Africa’s extreme rainfall indices over the period 1981–2018. The top five (5) years with the strongest and weakest peak of Niño3.4 SST monthly anomalies are selected, and May-to-September (MJJAS) composite anomalies of the total and extreme rainfall indices are performed. Results reveal that Equatorial Pacific SST’s impacts on daily rainfall intensity are generally more robust than that on their frequency. The significant changes in the mean zonal atmospheric circulation associated with the SST lead to significant dynamic and thermodynamic changes that affect the West African monsoon system locally. During El Niño (La Niña) years, (i) a weakening (strengthening) of the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ), (ii) a strengthening (weakening), and southward (northward) shift position of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ), and (iii) a decrease (increase) of the monsoon flow are noted. These changes in the atmospheric circulation prevent (encourage) a supply of moisture, resulting in a reduction (increase) in extreme precipitation observed across West Africa. Equatorial eastern Pacific warming (cooling) is also shown to lead to stable (unstable) atmospheric conditions over West Africa that block (generate) the development of convective systems.

Understanding the diversity of the West African monsoon system change projected by CORDEX-CORE regional climate models

Understanding the diversity of the West African monsoon system change projected by CORDEX-CORE regional climate models

Process-oriented evaluation of the West African Monsoon system in CORDEX-CORE regional climate models

Process-oriented evaluation of the West African Monsoon system in CORDEX-CORE regional climate models

West African monsoon precipitation impacted by the South Eastern Atlantic biomass burning aerosol outflow

The West African Monsoon (WAM) is a complex system depending on global climate influences and multiple regional environmental factors. Central and Southern African biomass-burning (SABB) aerosols have been shown to perturb WAM during episodic northward inter-hemispheric transport events, but a possible dynamical connection between the core of the SABB aerosol outflow and the WAM system remains unexplored. Through regional climate modeling experiments, we show that SABB aerosols can indeed impact WAM dynamics via two competitive regional scale and inter-hemispheric dynamical feedbacks originating from (i) enhanced diabatic heating occurring in the Southeastern Atlantic low-cloud deck region, and (ii) aerosol and cloud-induced sea surface temperature cooling. These mechanisms, related to aerosol direct, semi-direct, and indirect effects, are shown to have different seasonal timings, resulting in a reduction of June to September WAM precipitation, while possibly enhancing late-season rainfall in WAM coastal areas.

Seasonal forecasts of the Saharan heat low characteristics: a multi-model assessment

Abstract. The Saharan heat low (SHL) is a key component of the West African Monsoon system at the synoptic scale and a driver of summertime precipitation over the Sahel region. Therefore, accurate seasonal precipitation forecasts rely in part on a proper representation of the SHL characteristics in seasonal forecast models. This is investigated using the latest versions of two seasonal forecast systems namely the SEAS5 and MF7 systems from the European Center of Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Météo-France respectively. The SHL characteristics in the seasonal forecast models are assessed based on a comparison with the fifth ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA5) for the period 1993–2016. The analysis of the modes of variability shows that the seasonal forecast models have issues with the timing and the intensity of the SHL pulsations when compared to ERA5. SEAS5 and MF7 show a cool bias centered on the Sahara and a warm bias located in the eastern part of the Sahara respectively. Both models tend to underestimate the interannual variability in the SHL. Large discrepancies are found in the representation of extremes SHL events in the seasonal forecast models. These results are not linked to our choice of ERA5 as a reference, for we show robust coherence and high correlation between ERA5 and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). The use of statistical bias correction methods significantly reduces the bias in the seasonal forecast models and improves the yearly distribution of the SHL and the forecast scores. The results highlight the capacity of the models to represent the intraseasonal pulsations (the so-called east–west phases) of the SHL. We notice an overestimation of the occurrence of the SHL east phases in the models (SEAS5, MF7), while the SHL west phases are much better represented in MF7. In spite of an improvement in prediction score, the SHL-related forecast skills of the seasonal forecast models remain weak for specific variations for lead times beyond 1 month, requiring some adaptations. Moreover, the models show predictive skills at an intraseasonal timescale for shorter lead times.

Transport pathways across the West African Monsoon as revealed by Lagrangian Coherent Structures

The West African Monsoon (WAM) system is the main source of rainfall in the agriculturally based region of the Sahel. Understanding transport across the WAM is of crucial importance due to the strong impact of humidity and dust pathways on local cloud formation. However, the description of this transport is challenging due to its 3D complex nature. Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCS) simplify transport description across the WAM by providing a geometrical partition of the troposphere into domains. Air parcels within each domain have similar dynamical characteristics. LCS make it possible to achieve an integrated vision of transport pathways across this system. Using this approach we unveil new connections in the WAM system. In particular, we identify transport pathways between the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) and the African Easterly Jet (AEJ). Furthermore, the clockwise circulation associated with the divergent upper part of the Sahara heat low is clearly delimitated. Additionally, we show the presence of mixing regions in the AEJ and the lower part of the TEJ that are linked to pathways to sources of dust and humidity.

Three‐dimensional pathways of dust over the Sahara during summer 2011 as revealed by new Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer observations

AbstractWe present a new characterisation of the three‐dimensional (3D) distribution of dust over the Sahara during summer, exemplified for June 2011. Our approach, called AEROIASI, is based on the innovative retrieval of vertical profiles of the dust extinction coefficient from daily cloud‐free hyperspectral Infrared Atmospheric Sounder Interferometer (IASI) satellite observations. AEROIASI observations clearly agree with other widely used measurements (from lidar and radiometers). The 3D characterisation is focused on the dust maximum in June 2011, located in the central Sahara (17–23°N, 1–7°E) and linked to the major atmospheric dynamical drivers associated with the West African Monsoon (WAM) system. AEROIASI shows the near‐surface dust load to be dominated by five major emission events occurring every 3–4 days. These all occur when the study region is under the influence of northward bursts of the WAM and convection‐related cold pools, likely associated with orographic forcing by the Aïr Mountains. During the earliest (June 10) and the dustiest (June 17) cases, northward advection of moisture over the hotspot is favoured by the superposition of cyclonic circulations related to an extratropical disturbance northwest of the Sahara and to the Saharan heat low over Mauritania, respectively. Convection over the hotspot also triggers wave‐like disturbances that travel westwards. The three dustiest events are characterised by elongated dust fronts moving northwards, with a leading edge spanning 200–300 km horizontally and extending from the surface up to 2 km of altitude. Further south, the dust layer progressively elevates to 3.5 km along the slanted isentropes at the interface of the monsoon and the harmattan, increasingly losing contact with the ground. When northerlies blow over the study region, elevated dust layers at 3–5 km are observed, which are transported southwards within the Saharan air layer and westwards along the northern edge of the African easterly jet (after June 13).

Contemporary Climate Change of the African Monsoon Systems

Our current understanding of current climate change in the West African, East African, and Congo Basin monsoon systems is reviewed. The detection of observed trends, the analysis of the physical processes of change, and model projections are discussed. An increase in Sahel precipitation has been associated with a summer intensification and northward shift of the West African monsoon system as a response to amplified warming over the Sahara. Declines in the boreal spring rains over East Africa, and in spring and summer rains in the Congo Basin, are also reported in the literature but with less corroboration through physical analysis and model projections. Confident analysis and accurate simulation are hampered by a relative scarcity of observations in these regions. The West African monsoon system is trending to bring more precipitation to the Sahel in summer, and some is delivered through increasingly intense rainfall events. It is not yet clear whether recent trends observed in the East African and Congo Basin monsoon systems can be expected to persist as the global climate continues to warm. We cannot expect these monsoon systems to change linearly through the twenty-first century because, as the ocean basins warm at different rates and with different distributions, different forcing factors may become dominant.

Revisiting interannual to decadal teleconnections influencing seasonal rainfall in the Greater Horn of Africa during the 20th century

This paper revisits teleconnections for three major rainy seasons at the Greater Horn of Africa for the period 1901–2013. Sea surface temperature‐based climate indices known to influence Short, Kiremt, and Long Rains are used in a comprehensive statistical analysis to detect non‐stationary behaviour in teleconnections and to split them into interannual and decadal time scales. Physical mechanisms are proposed for identified significant non‐stationary teleconnections. Interannual variability in the October–December Short Rains is predominantly influenced by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) with a percent variance explained (PVE) of up to 80% in recent years. However, abrupt shifts in this teleconnection occurred around 1918, 1951, 1987, and recently. The Short Rains also correlate strongly with El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, ENSO influence on Short Rains is mediated by in‐phase occurrence of IOD. Decadal variations in Short Rains are more directly explained by low‐frequency variability in the Pacific Ocean (PO). A hitherto undocumented non‐stationary relation was found between Atlantic Niño 3 and June–September Kiremt Rains. The non‐stationarity seems to be related to a decadal regime shift in the West African monsoon system in the late 1960s. The variability of Kiremt Rains is also strongly associated with ENSO, although the recent increased correlation is not non‐stationary. Consistent with recent studies, the post‐1998 March–May Long Rains decline is strongly associated with decadal variability in the PO. The PVEs in the stable correlations using Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation indices range from 25 to 64%, mostly due to low‐frequency variability (>8 years). The results have ramifications for seasonal‐to‐decadal forecasting and can be taken to design modelling studies to gain insights into the physical mechanisms.

The role of low-level clouds in the West African monsoon system

Abstract. Realistically simulating the West African monsoon system still poses a substantial challenge to state-of-the-art weather and climate models. One particular issue is the representation of the extensive and persistent low-level clouds over southern West Africa (SWA) during boreal summer. These clouds are important in regulating the amount of solar radiation reaching the surface, but their role in the local energy balance and the overall monsoon system has never been assessed. Based on sensitivity experiments using the ICON model for July 2006, we show for the first time that rainfall over SWA depends logarithmically on the optical thickness of low clouds, as these control the diurnal evolution of the planetary boundary layer, vertical stability and finally convection. In our experiments, the increased precipitation over SWA has a small direct effect on the downstream Sahel, as higher temperatures due to increased surface radiation are accompanied by decreases in low-level moisture due to changes in advection, leading to almost unchanged equivalent potential temperatures in the Sahel. A systematic comparison of simulations with and without convective parameterization reveals agreement in the direction of the precipitation signal but larger sensitivity for explicit convection. For parameterized convection the main rainband is too far south and the diurnal cycle shows signs of unrealistic vertical mixing, leading to a positive feedback on low clouds. The results demonstrate that relatively minor errors, variations or trends in low-level cloudiness over SWA can have substantial impacts on precipitation. Similarly, they suggest that the dimming likely associated with an increase in anthropogenic emissions in the future would lead to a decrease in summer rainfall in the densely populated Guinea coastal area. Future work should investigate longer-term effects of the misrepresentation of low clouds in climate models, e.g. moderated through effects on rainfall, soil moisture and evaporation.

Does convection-permitting simulate better rainfall distribution and extreme over Guinean coast and surroundings?

This research work focuses on the problem of climate simulation of rainfall over West Africa and particularly over coastal countries of the Gulf of Guinea by Regional Climate Models. The sensitivities of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model were tested for changes in horizontal resolution (convection permitting versus parameterized) on the replication of West African monsoon for the year 2014. Sensitivity test was also performed for response of rainfall to changes in microphysics (MP) and planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes. Generally, the result shows that WRF is able to replicates rainfall distribution with an adequate representation of the dynamical features of West African monsoon system. The high-resolution (wrf-4km) shows dry bias along the coast of the Gulf of Guinea but generally outperforms wrf-24km run especially in replication of the extreme rainfall distribution. The dry bias along the coastal area is suggested to not to be only related to convection but mostly to microphysics and PBL parameterisation schemes. Differences were noticed between the dynamics of WRF and ERA-interim outputs despite the use of spectral nudging in the experiment which then suggest strong interactions between scales. These differences were observed to be restricted mainly to the low-layer monsoon flow in JJA. Both runs at 24 and 4 km hardly simulate the typical diurnal distribution of rainfall. The sensitivity of WRF to MP (only sophisticated MP were tested) and PBL reveals a stronger impact of PBL than MP on rainfall distribution and the most significant added value over the Guinean coast and surroundings area was provided by the configurations using non-local PBL scheme (as ACM2). The changes in MP and PBL schemes in general seem to have less effect on the explicit runs (wrf-4km) in the replication of the rainfall over the Gulf of Guinea and the surroundings seaboard.

Speleothem evidence for the greening of the Sahara and its implications for the early human dispersal out of sub-Saharan Africa

Although there is a consensus that there were wet periods (greening events) in the Sahara in the past, the spatial extent and the timing of these greening events are still in dispute, yet critical to our understanding of the early human dispersal out of Africa. Our U-series dates of speleothems from the Northeastern Sahara (Wadi Sannur cave, Egypt) reveal that the periods of speleothem growth were brief and restricted to the interglacial Marine Isotope Stages MIS 5.5, MIS 7.3, and the early MIS 9 with a remarkable absence of the Holocene deposition of speleothems. These growth periods of Wadi Sannur cave speleothems correspond to periods of high rainfall and spread of vegetation (green Sahara). Distinct low δ18O values of speleothems indicate a distal moisture source that we interpret to be the Atlantic Ocean. These two lines of evidence from the Wadi Sannur speleothems thus suggest that maximal northward shifts in the West African monsoon system occurred during the growth periods of the speleothems, leading to greening of the Sahara, facilitating human migration into Eurasia. The periods of speleothem growth at Wadi Sannur cave are contemporaneous with important archeological events: (1) the earliest occurrence of the Middle Stone Age assemblages and Homo sapiens in North Africa (Jebel Irhoud), suggesting wide spread of greening conditions over the East–West transect of the Sahara, (2) the sharp technological break between the Acheulo-Yabrudian and the Mousterian industries, and (3) the arrival of Homo sapiens in Levant, indicating a key role of the Sahara route in early human dispersal out of Africa.

Impact of soil-vegetation-atmosphere interactions on the spatial rainfall distribution in the Central Sahel

In a Regional Climate Model (RCM) the interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere are described by a Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere-Transfer Model (SVAT). In the presented study two SVATs of different complexity (TERRA-ML and VEG3D) are coupled to the RCM COSMO-CLM (CCLM) to investigate the impact of different representations of soil-vegetation-atmosphere interactions on the West African Monsoon (WAM) system. In contrast to TERRA-ML, VEG3D comprises a more detailed description of the land-atmosphere coupling by including a vegetation layer in its structural design, changing the treatment of radiation and turbulent fluxes. With these two different model systems (CCLM-TERRA-ML and CCLM-VEG3D) climate simulations are performed for West Africa and analyzed. The study reveals that the simulated spatial distribution of rainfall in the Sahel region is substantially affected by the chosen SVAT. Compared to CCLM-TERRA-ML, the application of CCLM-VEG3D results in higher near surface temperatures in the Sahel region during the rainy season. This implies a southward expansion of the Saharian heat-low. Consequently, the mean position of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) is also shifted to the south, leading to a southward displacement of tracks for Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS), developing in connection with the AEJ. As a result, less precipitation is produced in the Sahel region, increasing the agreement with observations. These analyses indicate that soil-vegetation-atmosphere interactions impact the West African Monsoon system and highlight the benefit of using a more complex SVAT to simulate its dynamics

Dust induced changes on the West African summer monsoon features

ABSTRACTDust generation and transportation from North Africa are thought to modulate the West African Monsoon (WAM) features. In this study, we investigated the relationship between the Saharan Air Layer located above Atlantic Ocean (OSAL) and WAM features, including Monsoon flow, African Easterly Jet (AEJ) and Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) over West Africa using the RegCM4 regional model at 30 km grid resolution. Two sets of experiments with and without dust load were performed between 2007 and 2013 over the simulation domain, encompassing the whole of West Africa and a large part of the adjacent Atlantic Ocean. An intercomparison of the two simulations shows that dust load into the atmosphere greatly influences both the wind and temperature structure at different levels, resulting in the observed changes in the main features of the WAM system during summer. These changes lead to a westward shift with a slight strengthening of AEJ core over tropical Atlantic and weakening of both TEJ and monsoon flux penetration over land. In addition, despite running the RegCM4 with prescribed sea surface temperature, a correlation has been found between Aerosol Optical Depths in OSAL and WAM dynamics suggesting a mechanistic link between dust and WAM well reproduced by RegCM4.

Characteristics of wet and dry spells in the West African monsoon system

AbstractUsing 17 years (1998–2014) of daily TRMM 3B42 rainfall data, we provide a climatological characterization of wet and dry spells in West Africa, which should serve to assess the ability of climate model to simulate these high impact events. The study focuses on four subregions (Western and Central Sahel, Sudanian zone and Guinea Coast). Defining wet (dry) spells as sequences of consecutive days with precipitation higher (lower) than 1 mm, we describe the space‐time variability of wet and dry spell occurrence. This climatology stresses the influence of the relief on the number and duration of these spells. The spatio‐temporal variability of the wet and dry spells also appears to be closely related to the spatio‐temporal variability of the West African monsoon. The number of wet spells of all durations and of 2–3 day dry spells have similar features with a maximum occurrence during the local rainy seasons and a spatial pattern similar to the mean annual rainfall with a north–south gradient. In contrast, dry spells lasting more than four days show some singularities such as a low occurrence over the Sahelian band or high occurrence along the Guinea Coast mainly from Ivory Coast to Benin. Moreover, the seasonal cycle of these longer dry spells presents higher occurrences at the beginning and the end of the rainy seasons.