West African Monsoon Dynamics Research Articles

West African Monsoon Dynamics and Its Control on the Stable Oxygen Isotopic Composition of Precipitation in the Late Cenozoic

AbstractThis study presents an overview of the Late Cenozoic evolution of the West African Monsoon (WAM), and the associated changes in atmospheric dynamics and oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation (δ18Op). This evolution is established by using the high‐resolution isotope‐enabled GCM ECHAM5‐wiso to simulate the climatic responses to paleoenvironmental changes during the Mid‐Holocene (MH), Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and Mid‐Pliocene (MP). The simulated responses are compared to a set of GCM outputs from Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 4 (PMIP4) to assess the added value of a high resolution and model consistency across different time periods. Results show WAM magnitudes and pattern changes that are consistent with PMIP4 models and proxy reconstructions. ECHAM5‐wiso estimates the highest WAM intensification in the MH, with a precipitation increase of up to 150 mm/month reaching 25°N during the monsoon season. The WAM intensification in the MP estimated by ECHAM5‐wiso (up to 80 mm/month) aligns with the mid‐range of the PMIP4 estimates, while the LGM dryness magnitude matches most of the models. Despite an enhanced hydrological cycle in MP, MH simulations indicate a ∼50% precipitation increase and a greater northward extent of WAM than the MP simulations. Strengthened conditions of the WAM in the MH and MP result from a pronounced meridional temperature gradient driving low‐level westerly, Sahel‐Sahara vegetation expansion, and a northward shift of the Africa Easterly Jet. The simulated δ18Op values patterns and their relationship with temperature and precipitation are non‐stationarity over time, emphasizing the implications of assuming stationarity in proxy reconstruction transfer functions.

Early to Middle Miocene Astronomically Paced Climate Dynamics in the Eastern Equatorial Atlantic

AbstractDetailed analysis of tropical climate dynamics is lacking for the Early to Middle Miocene, even though this time interval bears important analogies for future climates. Based on high‐resolution proxy reconstructions of sea surface temperature, export productivity and dust supply at Ocean Drilling Program Site 959, we investigate astronomical forcing of the West African monsoon in the eastern equatorial Atlantic across the prelude, onset, and continuation of the Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO; 18–15 Ma). Along with previously identified eccentricity periodicities of ∼400 and ∼100 kyr, our records show that climate varied on ∼27–17 kyr, ∼41 kyr, and ∼60–50 kyr timescales, which we attribute to precession, obliquity, and their combination tones, respectively. The relative contribution of these astronomical cycles differed between proxies and through time. Three intervals with distinct variability were recognized, which are particularly clear in the temperature record: (a) strong eccentricity, obliquity, and precession variability prior to the MCO (18.2–17.7 Ma), (b) strong influence of obliquity just after the onset of the MCO (16.9–16.3 Ma) concurring with a 2.4 Myr eccentricity minimum, and (c) dominant eccentricity and precession variability during the MCO between 16.3 and 15.0 Ma. Sedimentation at Site 959 was influenced by astronomically paced variations in upwelling intensity and North African aridity related to West African monsoon dynamics. Continuously present patterns of precession imply low‐latitude forcing, while asymmetric eccentricity and obliquity imprints and strong obliquity influence suggest that Site 959 was also affected by high‐latitude, glacial‐interglacial dynamics.

West African monsoon precipitation impacted by the South Eastern Atlantic biomass burning aerosol outflow

The West African Monsoon (WAM) is a complex system depending on global climate influences and multiple regional environmental factors. Central and Southern African biomass-burning (SABB) aerosols have been shown to perturb WAM during episodic northward inter-hemispheric transport events, but a possible dynamical connection between the core of the SABB aerosol outflow and the WAM system remains unexplored. Through regional climate modeling experiments, we show that SABB aerosols can indeed impact WAM dynamics via two competitive regional scale and inter-hemispheric dynamical feedbacks originating from (i) enhanced diabatic heating occurring in the Southeastern Atlantic low-cloud deck region, and (ii) aerosol and cloud-induced sea surface temperature cooling. These mechanisms, related to aerosol direct, semi-direct, and indirect effects, are shown to have different seasonal timings, resulting in a reduction of June to September WAM precipitation, while possibly enhancing late-season rainfall in WAM coastal areas.

Cloud Cover over the Sahara during the Summer and Associated Circulation Features

Over the Sahara in summer, the activity of the Saharan thermal low pressure system (SHL), which is linked to the West-African monsoon dynamics and the mid-latitude circulation, is modulated by dust concentration and water-vapor transport. In this context, the role of clouds over western Sahara remains under-investigated. Using Meteosat-Second-Generation geostationary satellite data, for the first time the variability of cloud occurrence over Sahara by type in summer, at diurnal, daily and intra-seasonal time scales for the 2008–2014 period is documented. Using European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Reanalysis (ERA) Interim (ERAI) reanalysis, cloud cover occurrences are characterized in terms of regional circulation patterns and moisture balance. We show that, over West-Sahara and Hoggar, mid-top clouds are the most frequent cloud-type in summer. Their summit reaches between 500 hPa and 400 hPa and lies just above the top of the Saharan Atmospheric Boundary Layer (SABL). During the rest of the year, high-top clouds are the most frequent. The variations in the spatial distribution of mid-top cloud occurrence coincide with the seasonal displacement and strengthening of the SHL and, in the mid-troposphere, of the Saharan anticyclone. Mid-top clouds occur most frequently when, at large scale, mass and humidity converge in the lower SABL due to heating on an extensive surface, and diverge in the upper SABL. Their diurnal cycle, with minimal frequency around 10 UTC and maximum in the evening, is consistent with the diurnal development of the Saharan Convective-Boundary-Layer. The frequency of high cloud increases when anticyclonic circulations at mid-level and upper-level retreat to the southeast and upper-level trough from mid-latitudes can penetrate more southwards.

Seasonality of wind speed, wind shears and precipitation over West Africa

This study analysed NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets of wind speed components at multiple pressure levels from 1956 to 2015 with a view to examining seasonal variations in wind shears in relation to convective precipitation over West Africa. It also estimated the West African Monsoon (WAM) wind shear index and related it to the WAM dynamics during different seasons (December to February: DJF; March to May: MAM, June to August: JJA; September to November: SON). The computed wind shear indices were compared with those derived from higher-resolution datasets of ERA5. Results revealed very similar spatial and seasonal distributions of wind patterns and significant positive correlations (0.75 ≤ r ≤ 0.99; p ≤ 0.05) between NCEP and ERA5 over West African onshore region. We obtained both positive and negative trends in wind shears (−0.001 to −0.05 units per year) and precipitation (−1.5 to −3.5 mm per year) over the entire study period and region. However, the trends were found to be statistically insignificant at 95% confidence level. The WAM wind shear index (WAMI) effectively captured the northward migration of the monsoon system over West Africa with peak values in JJA season. We established significant and strong associations between wind shear indices and precipitation climatology of the Climate Research Unit. The deep layer shear (0–6 km above ground level) and WAMI gave significant and positive correlation (0.75 ≤ r ≤ 0.95) with convective precipitation while fluctuation in precipitation was explained by 50–75% variations in these indices over most parts of the monsoon region. We concluded that convective precipitation was significantly influenced by seasonal variations in wind shears over West Africa.

The influence of global climate drivers on monsoon onset variability in Nigeria using S2S models

Rainfall onset has a lot of implications on the sustainability of the socio-economic activities in Nigeria. This study assesses the skills of CMA, ECMWF, and UKMO sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) models in predicting monsoon onset and its variability over Nigeria. It also investigates the global drivers modulating the variability and their teleconnections with rainfall onset anomaly. All the models, their ensemble members, and the observations were subjected to quantitative statistical analyses from 1998 to 2016. Results show that the three models are able to simulate the Northwards migration of the onset dates adequately with inherent biases and unique characteristics. They are also able to capture the evolution and variability of the global drivers modulating the monsoon onset. While CMA and the ECMWF models improve progressively towards the Sahel, the UKMO model performance is best over the Gulf of Guinea. In addition, despite the fairly poor performance of the models in predicting the variability of onset dates over the Gulf of Guinea and the Sahel, there is a considerable improvement in the correlation skill of the models over the Savannah. Furthermore, results show that only the ECMWF model was able to produce the strength of both the African Easterly Jets (AEJ) and the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) in spatio-temporal mode. These are two of the crucial global drivers modulating the dynamics of West African monsoon. It was also found out that most global drivers, especially the Inter-tropical Discontinuity (ITD) and the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) over the Central Pacific, exhibit direct teleconnection with the onset anomaly. This direct relationship is shown to be strongest over both the Gulf of Guinea and the Sahel. Although the CMA model might have the least skill, it, however, showed that all the S2S models, despite the inherent biases, are able to predict rainfall onset over Nigeria, within the sub-seasonal timescale. Finally, the results show that improvements in multi-model ensembles are valuable added information able to significantly improve model performance.

Impact of dynamical regionalization on precipitation biases and teleconnections over West Africa

West African societies are highly dependent on the West African Monsoon (WAM). Thus, a correct representation of the WAM in climate models is of paramount importance. In this article, the ability of 8 CMIP5 historical General Circulation Models (GCMs) and 4 CORDEX-Africa Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to characterize the WAM dynamics and variability is assessed for the period July-August-September 1979–2004. Simulations are compared with observations. Uncertainties in RCM performance and lateral boundary conditions are assessed individually. Results show that both GCMs and RCMs have trouble to simulate the northward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone in boreal summer. The greatest bias improvements are obtained after regionalization of the most inaccurate GCM simulations. To assess WAM variability, a Maximum Covariance Analysis is performed between Sea Surface Temperature and precipitation anomalies in observations, GCM and RCM simulations. The assessed variability patterns are: El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the eastern Mediterranean (MED); and the Atlantic Equatorial Mode (EM). Evidence is given that regionalization of the ENSO–WAM teleconnection does not provide any added value. Unlike GCMs, RCMs are unable to precisely represent the ENSO impact on air subsidence over West Africa. Contrastingly, the simulation of the MED–WAM teleconnection is improved after regionalization. Humidity advection and convergence over the Sahel area are better simulated by RCMs. Finally, no robust conclusions can be determined for the EM–WAM teleconnection, which cannot be isolated for the 1979–2004 period. The novel results in this article will help to select the most appropriate RCM simulations to study WAM teleconnections.

Dust induced changes on the West African summer monsoon features

ABSTRACTDust generation and transportation from North Africa are thought to modulate the West African Monsoon (WAM) features. In this study, we investigated the relationship between the Saharan Air Layer located above Atlantic Ocean (OSAL) and WAM features, including Monsoon flow, African Easterly Jet (AEJ) and Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) over West Africa using the RegCM4 regional model at 30 km grid resolution. Two sets of experiments with and without dust load were performed between 2007 and 2013 over the simulation domain, encompassing the whole of West Africa and a large part of the adjacent Atlantic Ocean. An intercomparison of the two simulations shows that dust load into the atmosphere greatly influences both the wind and temperature structure at different levels, resulting in the observed changes in the main features of the WAM system during summer. These changes lead to a westward shift with a slight strengthening of AEJ core over tropical Atlantic and weakening of both TEJ and monsoon flux penetration over land. In addition, despite running the RegCM4 with prescribed sea surface temperature, a correlation has been found between Aerosol Optical Depths in OSAL and WAM dynamics suggesting a mechanistic link between dust and WAM well reproduced by RegCM4.

West African monsoon dynamics and precipitation: the competition between global SST warming and CO2 increase in CMIP5 idealized simulations

Climate variability associated with the West African monsoon (WAM) has important environmental and socio-economic impacts in the region. However, state-of-the-art climate models still struggle in producing reliable climate predictions. An important cause of this low predictive skill is the sensitivity of climate models to different forcings. In this study, the mechanisms linking the WAM dynamics to the CO2 forcing are investigated, by comparing the effect of the CO2 direct radiative effect with its indirect effect mediated by the global sea surface warming. The July-to-September WAM variability is studied in climate simulations extracted from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive, driven by prescribed sea surface temperature (SST). The individual roles of global SST warming and CO2 atmospheric concentration increase are investigated through idealized experiments simulating a 4 K warmer SST and a quadrupled CO2 concentration, respectively. Results show opposite and competing responses in the WAM dynamics and precipitation. A dry response (−0.6 mm/day) to the SST warming is simulated in the Sahel, with dryer conditions over western Sahel (−0.8 mm/day). Conversely, the CO2 increase produces wet conditions (+0.5 mm/day) in the Sahel, with the strongest response over central-eastern Sahel (+0.7 mm/day). The associated responses in the atmospheric dynamics are also analysed, showing that the SST warming affects the Sahelian precipitation through modifications in the global tropical atmospheric dynamics, reducing the importance of the regional drivers, while the CO2 increase reinforces the coupling between precipitation and regional dynamics. A general agreement in model responses demonstrates the robustness of the identified mechanisms linking the WAM dynamics to the CO2 direct and indirect forcing, and indicates that these primary mechanisms are captured by climate models. Results also suggest that the spread in future projections may be caused by unbalanced model responses to the CO2 direct and indirect forcing.

Impacts of dust reduction on the northward expansion of the African monsoon during the Green Sahara period

The West African Monsoon (WAM) is crucial for the socio-economic stability of millions of people living in the Sahel. Severe droughts have ravaged the region in the last three decades of the 20th century, highlighting the need for a better understanding of the WAM dynamics. One of the most dramatic changes in the West African Monsoon (WAM) occurred between 15000–5000 yr BP, when increased summer rainfall led to the so-called “Green Sahara” and to a reduction in dust emissions from the region. However, model experiments are unable to fully reproduce the intensification and geographical expansion of the WAM during this period, even when vegetation over the Sahara is considered. Here, we use a fully coupled simulation for 6000 yr BP (Mid-Holocene) in which prescribed Saharan vegetation and dust concentrations are changed in turn. A closer agreement with proxy records is obtained only when both the Saharan vegetation changes and dust decrease are taken into account. The dust reduction strengthens the vegetation–albedo feedback, extending the monsoon's northern limit approximately 500 km further than the vegetation-change case only. We therefore conclude that accounting for changes in Saharan dust loadings is essential for improving model simulations of the WAM during the Mid-Holocene.

Recent climatological trend of the Saharan heat low and its impact on the West African climate

The Saharan heat low (SHL) plays a pivotal role in the West African monsoon system in spring and summer. The recent trend in SHL activity has been analysed using two sets of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model reanalyses and Atmospheric Models Intercomparison Project simulations from 15 climate models performed in the framework of the 5th Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) exercise. A local increase of temperature in the Sahara during the 90s is found in the two sets of NWP models temperature. This increase is stronger within the SHL region than over the surrounding areas. Using different temporal filters (under 25 days, 25–100 days and above 300 days), we show that this is accompanied by a slight but widespread increase of temperature, and a change in the filtered signal under 25 days during the transition period of the 90s. We also show that SHL pulsations occurring at different time scales impact the West Africa climate on a variety of spatial scales, from the regional scale (for the high band pass) to the synoptic scale (for the low band pass signal). Despite a large variability in the temporal trends for 15 climate models from the CMIP5 project, the warming trend in the 90s is observed in the models ensemble mean. Nevertheless, large discrepancies are found between the NWP models reanalyses and the climate model simulations regarding the spatial and temporal evolutions of the SHL as well as its impact on West African climate at the different time scales. These comparisons also reveal that climate models represent the West African monsoon interactions with SHL pulsations quite differently. We provide recommendations to use some of them depending on the time scales of the processes at play (synoptic, seasonal, interannual) and based on key SHL metrics (location, mean intensity, global trend, interaction with the West African monsoon dynamics).

Can daily meteorological measurement of near-surface wind detect climate changes in the Sahel (SE Niger, 1950–1992)?

Using three daily measurements of wind speed and direction from synoptic weather station data in SE Niger, we examined the diurnal, seasonal and interannual time-scale of Sahel climate variability between 1950 and 1992. The seasonal wind patterns are closely related to the temperatures and West African monsoon dynamics. The transitions between the two seasons are marked by an important increase in calms (wind speed<0.5 m s−1). Such variations are related to meridional shifts of the Inter Tropical Discontinuity (ITD) and Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Interannual fluctuations of annual wind speeds are consistent with Sahel rainfall variability. Dry years, such as in 1969–1973 and 1983–1986 periods, are associated with negative anomalies in wind speeds mainly due to an increase in calms and dry conditions. Nevertheless, we note several differences: the first period is associated with a yearly increase in the annual mean speed, while the second is associated with a decrease. Differences could be related to changes in atmospheric circulation, especially regarding the strength and latitudinal position of Tropical and African Easterly jets.

West African monsoon dynamics inferred from abrupt fluctuations of Lake Mega-Chad

From the deglacial period to the mid-Holocene, North Africa was characterized by much wetter conditions than today. The broad timing of this period, termed the African Humid Period, is well known. However, the rapidity of the onset and termination of the African Humid Period are contested, with strong evidence for both abrupt and gradual change. We use optically stimulated luminescence dating of dunes, shorelines, and fluviolacustrine deposits to reconstruct the fluctuations of Lake Mega-Chad, which was the largest pluvial lake in Africa. Humid conditions first occur at ∼ 15 ka, and by 11.5 ka, Lake Mega-Chad had reached a highstand, which persisted until 5.0 ka. Lake levels fell rapidly at ∼ 5 ka, indicating abrupt aridification across the entire Lake Mega-Chad Basin. This record provides strong terrestrial evidence that the African Humid Period ended abruptly, supporting the hypothesis that the African monsoon responds to insolation forcing in a markedly nonlinear manner. In addition, Lake Mega-Chad exerts strong control on global biogeochemical cycles because the northern (Bodélé) basin is currently the world's greatest single dust source and possibly an important source of limiting nutrients for both the Amazon Basin and equatorial Atlantic. However, we demonstrate that the final desiccation of the Bodélé Basin occurred around 1 ka. Consequently, the present-day mode and scale of dust production from the Bodélé Basin cannot have occurred before 1 ka, suggesting that its role in fertilizing marine and terrestrial ecosystems is either overstated or geologically recent.

Interacción entre el Monzón de África Occidental y el clima Mediterráneo en verano: Artículo de revisión

Although in the framework of the global climate research the Mediterranean climate variability and the West African Monsoon (WAM) dynamics have been considered for a long time as “passive” systems, i.e., prone to the influence of large scale ocean and atmospheric variability, over the last decade many studies have been dedicated to the WAM-Mediterranean interaction and the active role of these climate systems has been highlighted. This article presents the WAM-Mediterranean teleconnection through an overview of the recent literature, describing the observational evidences and the dynamical mechanisms underlying this climate teleconnection. The influence of the Mediterranean Sea thermal anomalies on the WAM dynamics has been robustly demonstrated, and a WAM modulation of the atmospheric circulation over the Euro-Atlantic sector has been highlighted. On the other hand, the direct effects of the WAM dynamics on the Mediterranean climate still need to be more clearly understood.

Analysis of the West African Monsoon system in the regional climate model COSMO‐CLM

ABSTRACTThe West African Monsoon (WAM) is a major component of the global monsoon system. The contrast between land surface temperature (LST) (in the Sahel and Sahara) and sea surface temperature (SST) dominates the WAM formation. This study investigated the WAM representation, and the impact of surface temperature uncertainties in three regional climate simulations with the model COnsortium for Small‐scale MOdelling‐Climate Limited‐area Model (COSMO‐CLM) (grid‐spacing: 0.44°). The regional simulations were driven by present‐day climate simulations with the global climate model ECHAM5 (grid‐spacing: ∼1.9°), and by the re‐analysis data ERA‐Interim (∼0.7°). The WAM dynamics were quantified using the WAM wind shear index (WAMI). In addition, indices for outgoing long‐wave radiation (OLR) (an indicator for convective clouds), and total precipitation were used to assess monsoon characteristics. The large‐scale patterns of precipitation were adequately reproduced by COSMO‐CLM compared to observations, but there were significant uncertainties at regional scales, such as a strong overestimation of precipitation in the Sahel. The model also significantly overestimated convective activity and simulated a too intense monsoon circulation as indicated by WAMI. The impact of bare soil albedo on LST was investigated by implementing an MODIS‐observation based bare‐soil albedo parameterization, which led to a reduction of the simulated warm bias in the Sahara region during the monsoon season by up to 3 K, and an improvement of simulated Sahel precipitation. However, the simulated monsoon circulation was not improved. Using either ERA‐Interim or ECHAM5 at the lateral boundaries showed that the COSMO‐CLM results were very sensitive to the driving data. And, on coarse grid‐scales (of the order of the grid‐spacing of the driving datasets) the regional climate model was not able to perform substantially better than the forcing data. The differently driven COSMO‐CLM simulations also indicated that the land–sea temperature gradient, and its impact on WAM, is dominated by SST and less by LST (in Sahara and Sahel).

Diagnosing GCM errors over West Africa using relaxation experiments. Part I: summer monsoon climatology and interannual variability

The CNRM atmospheric general circulation model Arpege-Climat is relaxed towards atmospheric reanalyses outside the 10°S–32°N 30°W–50°E domain in order to disentangle the regional versus large-scale sources of climatological biases and interannual variability of the West African monsoon (WAM). On the one hand, the main climatological features of the monsoon, including the spatial distribution of summer precipitation, are only weakly improved by the nudging, thereby suggesting the regional origin of the Arpege-Climat biases. On the other hand, the nudging technique is relatively efficient to control the interannual variability of the WAM dynamics, though the impact on rainfall variability is less clear. Additional sensitivity experiments focusing on the strong 1994 summer monsoon suggest that the weak sensitivity of the model biases is not an artifact of the nudging design, but the evidence that regional physical processes are the main limiting factors for a realistic simulation of monsoon circulation and precipitation in the Arpege-Climat model. Sensitivity experiments to soil moisture boundary conditions are also conducted and highlight the relevance of land–atmosphere coupling for the amplification of precipitation biases. Nevertheless, the land surface hydrology is not the main explanation for the model errors that are rather due to deficiencies in the atmospheric physics. The intraseasonal timescale and the model internal variability are discussed in a companion paper.

Regional climate modelling of the 2006 West African monsoon: sensitivity to convection and planetary boundary layer parameterisation using WRF

Regional climate model (RCM) is a valuable scientific tool to address the mechanisms of regional atmospheric systems such as the West African monsoon (WAM). This study aims to improve our understanding of the impact of some physical schemes of RCM on the WAM representation. The weather research and forecasting model has been used by performing six simulations of the 2006 summer WAM season. These simulations use all combinations of three convective parameterization schemes (CPSs) and two planetary boundary layer schemes (PBLSs). By comparing the simulations to a large set of observations and analysis products, we have evaluated the ability of these RCM parameterizations to reproduce different aspects of the regional atmospheric circulation of the WAM. This study focuses in particular on the WAM onset and the rainfall variability simulated over this domain. According to the different parameterizations tested, the PBLSs seem to have the strongest effect on temperature, humidity vertical distribution and rainfall amount. On the other hand, dynamics and precipitation variability are strongly influenced by CPSs. In particular, the Mellor–Yamada–Janjic PBLS attributes more realistic values of humidity and temperature. Combined with the Kain–Fritsch CPS, the WAM onset is well represented. The different schemes combination tested also reveal the role of different regional climate features on WAM dynamics, namely the low level circulation, the land–atmosphere interactions and the meridional temperature gradient between the Guinean coast and the Sahel.

Performance of DEMETER calibration for rainfall forecasting purposes: Application to the July–August Sahelian rainfall

This work assesses and compares the skill of direct and model‐output‐statistics (MOS) calibrated hindcasts of the July–August rainfall amounts for the dry period 1980–2000 over the Sahel issued from the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) experiment, with the aim to highlight among the simulated parameters, i.e., those potentially relevant for rainfall forecasts purposes. Three approaches were used: the DEMETER (1) direct rainfall, (2) MOS‐calibrated rainfall, and (3) MOS‐calibrated atmospheric dynamics and energy. Canonical correlation analyses (CCA) were employed in the two latter approaches to calibrate the direct rainfall fields from DEMETER. The main results are the following. First, the observed relationship between indexes depicting Sahelian rainfall (SRI) and West African Monsoon dynamics (MOD850 for the modulus of the wind at 850 hPa) is not correctly reproduced in DEMETER: the correlation between them achieves 0.25 only (versus 0.6 in observations). The calibration with atmospheric dynamics and energy fields (moist static energy fluxes at 850 hPa and zonal wind at 500 hPa) leads to slightly higher results than with rainfall. Second, the leading coupled mode of the CCA between observed rainfall and simulated atmospheric dynamics (∼28% of the total variance) connects Sahelian rainfall variability to a weakened African Easterly Jet (AEJ, somewhat shifted to the north) as well as to the strength of the MSE fluxes from the Guinean Gulf and the Mediterranean Sea. Finally, the teleconnection pattern between the CCA mode and simulated surface temperatures concurs well with observations, giving confidence into the physical basis of the mode, although the cross‐validated skill scores obtained through the three approaches remain low.

The West African Monsoon Dynamics. Part III: The Quasi-Biweekly Zonal Dipole

Abstract This paper presents an investigation of the mechanisms giving rise to the main intraseasonal mode of convection in the African monsoon during northern summer, here identified as the quasi-biweekly zonal dipole (QBZD). The QBZD is primarily characterized by a quasi-stationary zonal dipole of convection whose dimension is larger than the West African monsoon domain, with its two poles centered along the Guinean coast and between 30° and 60°W in the equatorial Atlantic. The QBZD dynamical processes within the Atlantic–Africa domain are examined in some detail. The QBZD has a dipole pattern associated with a Walker-type circulation in the near-equatorial zonal plane. It is controlled both by equatorial atmospheric dynamics through a Kelvin wave–like disturbance propagating eastward between its two poles and by land surface processes over Africa, inducing combined fluctuations in surface temperatures, surface pressure, and low-level zonal winds off the coast of West Africa. When convection is at a minimum over central and West Africa, a lack of cloud cover results in higher net shortwave flux at the surface, which increases surface temperatures and lowers surface pressures. This creates an east–west pressure gradient at the latitude of both the ITCZ (10°N) and the Saharan heat low (20°N), leading to an increase in eastward moisture advection inland. The arrival from the Atlantic of the positive pressure signal associated with a Kelvin wave pattern amplifies the low-level westerly wind component and the moisture advection inland, leading to an increase in convective activity over central and West Africa. Then the opposite phase of the dipole develops. Propagation of the QBZD convective envelope and of the associated 200 high-level velocity potential anomalies is detected from the eastern Pacific to the Indian Ocean. When the effect of the Kelvin wave propagation is removed by filtering, the stationary character of the QBZD is highlighted. The impact of the QBZD in combination with a Kelvin wave is illustrated by a case study of the monsoon onset in 1984.

155,000 Years of West African Monsoon and Ocean Thermal Evolution

A detailed reconstruction of West African monsoon hydrology over the past 155,000 years suggests a close linkage to northern high-latitude climate oscillations. Ba/Ca ratio and oxygen isotope composition of planktonic foraminifera in a marine sediment core from the Gulf of Guinea, in the eastern equatorial Atlantic (EEA), reveal centennial-scale variations of riverine freshwater input that are synchronous with northern high-latitude stadials and interstadials of the penultimate interglacial and the last deglaciation. EEA Mg/Ca-based sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were decoupled from northern high-latitude millennial-scale fluctuation and primarily responded to changes in atmospheric greenhouse gases and low-latitude solar insolation. The onset of enhanced monsoon precipitation lags behind the changes in EEA SSTs by up to 7000 years during glacial-interglacial transitions. This study demonstrates that the stadial-interstadial and deglacial climate instability of the northern high latitudes exerts dominant control on the West African monsoon dynamics through an atmospheric linkage.