Climate Change Weather Research Articles

Skin health response to climate change weather tailored cosmetics using artificial intelligence

Skin health response to climate change weather tailored cosmetics using artificial intelligence

Using geographic rescue time contours, point-of-care strategies, and spatial care paths to prepare island communities for global warming, rising oceans, and weather disasters

ObjectivesTo perform geographic contour analysis of sea and land ambulance rescue times in an archipelago subject to super typhoons; to design point-of-care testing strategies for medical emergencies and weather disasters made more intense by global warming and rising oceans; and to assess needs for prehospital testing on spatial care paths that accelerate decision making, increase efficiency, improve outcomes, and enhance standards of care in island nations.MethodsWe performed needs assessments, inspected healthcare facilities, and collected ambulance rescue times from professionals in the Bantayan Archipelago, Philippines. We mapped sea/land ambulance rescue routes and time contours. To reveal gaps, we statistically compared the fastest and slowest patient rescue times from islands/islets and barangays to the District Hospital on Bantayan Island. We developed spatial care paths (the fastest routes to care) for acute myocardial infarction, community care, and infectious diseases. We generated a compendium of prehospital diagnostic testing and integrated outcomes evidence, diagnostic needs, and public health goals to recommend point-of-care strategies that build geographic health resilience.ResultsWe observed limited access to COVID-19 assays, absence of blood gas/pH testing for critical care support, and spatial gaps in land and airborne rescues that worsened during inclement weather and sea swells. Mean paired differences (slowest-fastest) in ambulance rescue times to the District Hospital for both islands and barangays were significant (P < 0.0001). Spatial care path analysis showed where point-of-care cardiac troponin testing should be implemented for expedited care of acute myocardial infarction. Geospatial strengths comprised distributed primary care that can be facilitated by point-of-care testing, logical interisland transfers for which decision making and triage could be accelerated with onboard diagnostics, and healthcare networks amenable to medical advances in prehospital testing that accelerate treatment.ConclusionsPoint-of-care testing should be positioned upstream close to homes and island populations that have prolonged rescue time contours. Geospatially optimized point-of-need diagnostics and distributed prehospital testing have high potential to improve outcomes. These improvements will potentially decrease disparities in mortality among archipelago versus urban dwellers, help improve island public health, and enhance resilience for increasingly adverse and frequent climate change weather disasters that impact vulnerable coastal areas. [350 words].

Effects of Building Materials on Building Thermal Load in Malaysian Institutional Library

Green building, net-zero energy building, low energy building, and sustainable building are the common terms being used in the building industry nowadays, with the primary aim to produce buildings with low energy and low carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Different types of building materials can have significant implications for energy efficiency, especially in the warming climate. The energy crisis, future global warming, and climate change can be mitigated by choosing the right building materials, which will also lower the building's energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. This paper presents the effects of different building materials on the cooling capacity and cooling energy consumption of a building for four (4) different climate change weather data, namely, the present time scenario, the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s time scenario using TRNSYS simulation software. The main library of a university in Petaling Jaya, Malaysia, was chosen as the case study. Three (3) types of building materials were studied, namely, Type 1 (brick walls with single-glazed windows), Type 2 (foam insulation cavity walls with double-glazed windows), and Type 3 (air gap cavity walls with double-glazed windows). The simulation results showed that the Type 2 building materials could reduce the yearly cooling energy consumption by 14.5%, compared with the current building materials (brick walls with single-glazed windows). The Type 3 building materials (air gap cavity walls with double-glazed windows) with the lower installation were wound to reduce the yearly cooling energy consumption by 9% compared with the Type 1 building materials. For architects, designers, politicians, and library administrators, the research's conclusions have immediate practical implications that will help them make decisions and implement energy-saving plans. In the end, this research helps libraries in Malaysia remain sustainable and resilient in the face of global warming and the energy crisis.

Challenging the status quo in invasive species assessment using mechanistic physiologically based demographic modeling

AbstractThe increased incidence of invasive species introductions is a hallmark of global change, but their associated environmental and economic impacts are vastly underestimated. Assessing and managing the impact of invasive species requires understanding their weather driven dynamics as a basis for predicting their potential geographic distribution and relative abundance. Current de-facto standards for invasive species assessment are correlative approaches lacking mechanistic underpinnings, and hence fail to capture the weather driven biology limiting their explanatory and predictive capacity to forewarn policy makers of species invasiveness (i.e., its potential geographic distribution and relative abundance under extant and/or climate change weather). The idiosyncratic time-place nature of biological invasions and the inability of correlative approaches to incorporate biological information call for development of a unifying prospective approach across species. Physiologically based demographic models (PBDMs) provide a holistic basis for assessment of invasive species addressing many limitations of correlative approaches while accommodating higher level of biological complexity using a similar number of parameters. We use the South American tomato pinworm Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) as a case study in the Palearctic and compare the predictions of our PBDM model to those of three analyses based on the correlative CLIMEX model. The PBDM outperformed CLIMEX with comparable CLIMEX predictions only after the pest had reached its potential geographic distribution (i.e., post hoc), using 6–10 vs. 13 parameters, respectively. We suggest creating dedicated laboratories to gather appropriate biological data and developing generalized software to build mechanistic models for assessing invasive species of any taxa.

Tritrophic analysis of the prospective biological control of brown marmorated stink bug, Halyomorpha halys, under extant weather and climate change

The highly destructive Asian brown marmorated stink bug (Halyomorpha halys, BMSB) invaded Europe, Caucasus region, and North and South America. Efforts to control it are ongoing in the Palearctic European-Mediterranean Basin and North America by introducing and redistributing two Asian stenophagous scelionid egg parasitoids (Trissolcus japonicus and T. mitsukurii) that are attacked by an adventive oligophagous pteromalid Asian hyperparasitoid (Acroclisoides sinicus). Large BMSB nymphs and adults may be parasitized by new associations of oligophagous tachinid flies and immature stages by egg parasitoids and predators. The terms stenophagous and oligophagous are commonly used to define narrow and wider ranges, respectively, of food eaten, but here they refer to the range of hosts attacked by adult female parasitoids. A holistic weather-driven physiologically based demographic model (PBDM) of the tritrophic interactions was developed to evaluate prospectively the impact of natural enemies on the biological control of BMSB under current and climate change weather. Our study focuses on the European-Mediterranean region, with the results for the USA, Mexico, and Central America reported as supplementary information. The PBDM analysis suggests that biotypes of the egg parasitoids T. japonicus and T. mitsukurii with high search capacity could suppress BMSB regionally, but the requisite levels of parasitism by these parasitoids for economic control are not observed in their native range nor in invaded areas. The model suggests that the action of T. japonicus is greater than that of T. mitsukurii, but that joint interactions of the two egg parasitoids would provide higher mortality of BMSB. Field data and model results suggest that the egg hyperparasitoid A. sinicus has a modest negative impact on the suppression of BMSB. Moreover, tachinid parasitoids of adults could have an important supplemental role in suppressing BMSB densities. Analysis suggests that new biotypes of egg parasitoids and species of tachinid parasitoids of large nymphs and adults be sought.

Geoecological contradictions in the functioning of urban ecosystems in conditions of increased anthropogenic impact and abnormal weather-climate changes

&#x0D; &#x0D; &#x0D; The risks of abnormal temperatures and rainfall on urban ecosystems have been assessed. According to urban ecosystems study results, the scale of anthropogenic changes in the functioning of green zones, urban and suburban regional landscape parks is demonstrated. It has been established that negative changes in components’ state of landscape systems contribute to the effective manifestation of a number of adverse processes and phenomena (reduction of groundwater levels, intensification of droughts, soil erosion and deflation, their dehumidification, depletion of landscape and biotic diversity, etc.). The SWOT-analysis method demonstrated the positive role of green zones in the functioning of urban ecosystems and its negative effects on the complex green zones. At the basic stage of the study on the example of the Ternopil urban system the dynamics of the temperatures and precipitation during 60-year period has been demonstrated, the differences in the temperature indicators of the surfaces of different districts of the city have been clarified. It is established that industrial, residential neighborhoods, shopping centers, transport infrastructure experience the greatest temperature fluctuations. The morphology of the earth’s surface, the presence of depressions, significant angles of earth’s surface inclination, the ratio of green zones with built-up and covered with asphalt, pavement, concrete and road network systems and storm sewers, etc. is an important factor in the intensification of slope water runoff in urban systems. The vulnerability of Ternopil urban system to climate change has been analyzed. Temperature calculations of various city surfaces have been done. The features of moisture circulation on artificial and natural surfaces of urban system have been shown schematically. The flooding regular risk places of the lowered parts of the city territory have been revealed. The runoff coefficients and the combined runoff coefficient for different surfaces of the city have been calculated. Based on these data, the surface runoff volumes in case of heavy rain have been calculated. It has been proven that in the event of torrential rains, the existing rainwater drainage system will not cope with the volume of runoff, causing flooding and inundation of urban zones. A set of measures aimed at preventing flooding of buildings, communications and streets, increasing the rate of safe removal of surface runoff from places of its concentration in the urban system has been proposed.&#x0D; &#x0D; &#x0D;

Invasive potential of tropical fruit flies in temperate regions under climate change

Tropical fruit flies are considered among the most economically important invasive species detected in temperate areas of the United States and the European Union. Detections often trigger quarantine and eradication programs that are conducted without a holistic understanding of the threat posed. Weather-driven physiologically-based demographic models are used to estimate the geographic range, relative abundance, and threat posed by four tropical tephritid fruit flies (Mediterranean fruit fly, melon fly, oriental fruit fly, and Mexican fruit fly) in North and Central America, and the European-Mediterranean region under extant and climate change weather (RCP8.5 and A1B scenarios). Most temperate areas under tropical fruit fly propagule pressure have not been suitable for establishment, but suitability is predicted to increase in some areas with climate change. To meet this ongoing challenge, investments are needed to collect sound biological data to develop mechanistic models to predict the geographic range and relative abundance of these and other invasive species, and to put eradication policies on a scientific basis.

Weathering Climate Change in Archaeology: Conceptual Challenges and an East African Case Study

Research on the social dimensions of climate change is increasingly focused on people's experiences, values and relations to the environment as a means to understand how people interpret and adapt to changes. However, a particular challenge has been making seemingly temporally and geographically distant climate change more immediate and local so as to prompt behavioural change. Environmental humanists, anthropologists and historians have tried to address the challenge through analysis of the experiences, philosophies and memories of weather. Archaeology, commonly preoccupied by hard science approaches to climate change, has largely been absent from this conversation. Nevertheless, with its insights into material outcomes of human experiences and relations, it can become integral to the discussion of ‘weathering’ climate change and historicizing weather. Here, drawing on the subtleties of responses by Ilchamus communities in Kenya and using a mix of historical and archaeological sources, we highlight their experiences of weather since the end of the Little Ice Age and explore the potential of building archaeologies of weather.

Weathering Climate Change: Opportunities and Risks in an Altered Investment Landscape

After 100 centuries of relative stability, our planet’s climate is transforming. This climatic change is not a distant forecast of the future – it is verifiably happening now. Indeed, despite the significant uncertainty over the longer horizon, our climate destiny is largely predetermined over the next decade – the typical time frame of most long-term investors. Ironically, a highly certain climate destiny translates into massive uncertainty for long-term investors looking to navigate the opportunities and challenges unleashed by climate change. This is for a variety of reasons. First, the most definitive forecast of climate change is for more extreme and greater variability in weather outcomes, the precise timing and severity of which are unclear. Second, it is hard to predict when the externalities, tail risks and nonlinear vulnerabilities from climate change will be fully reflected in market prices. Third, the regulatory, governmental and societal response to climate change remains unclear, especially given the polarized political landscape in which climate change discussions are currently being conducted. Despite these uncertainties, we believe that climate change is one of the most important structural changes for long-term investors. The implications for investors lie as much around innovative and transformative technologies to further the transition to a lower-carbon world as they do around identifying and mitigating hidden vulnerabilities across their portfolio. To build an actionable climate change investment agenda, we have drawn on the insights of over 45 investment professionals across PGIM’s fixed income, equity, real estate, and private debt and alternatives managers; interviewed over 30 leading academics, economists, policymakers, scientists and climate change investors; and conducted a new proprietary survey of 100 global institutional investors to better understand their current investment actions and future aspirations around climate change. The humanitarian and economic catastrophe unleashed by COVID-19 in 2020 revealed investors’ vulnerability to nonlinear risks with unpredictable timing that are not easily accounted for in standard risk modeling. Climate change is the next slow-burning crisis that will radically reshape investors’ risks and opportunities over the next decade. Here at PGIM, we believe investors who understand the potential for climate change to disrupt and reshape the global economy, markets and the investment landscape will be best positioned to navigate the coming decades.

Physiological characterization and proline route genes quantification under long-term cold stress in Carrizo citrange

Low temperature is one of the abiotic stresses that most limits crop production, growth and distribution. Currently climate change weather alters temperature worldwide, which produces both high and low temperatures. This work aimed to know how citrus responds to long-term low temperatures after being submitted to 1 °C day-night during six weeks. Physiological parameters were analyzed and it was obtained that photosynthesis and growth drastically decreased, water potential increased and osmotic potential did not change. Fv/Fm (maximum quantum yield of PSII) lowered, and degradation of chlorophylls a and b took place.The proline concentration in leaves moderately increased. The expression of two genes from the glutamate synthesis route (P5CS1 and P5CS2) and one gene from the ornithine route (dOAT) was quantified. The results reveal that the dOAT transcripts from the proline synthesis gene underwent greater induction than P5CS1 and P5CS2. A marked increase in the expression of proline degradative genes (PDH and P5CDH), a drop in starch, a decrease in the concentration of soluble sugars, and higher total nitrogen quantification in leaves were also observed. Citrus plants stopped growing, but mobilized reserve substances to survive cold stress conditions.

Impact of climate change in cultural heritage: from energy consumption to artefacts’ conservation and building rehabilitation

Historic artefacts must be properly preserved if they are to be transmitted to future generations. Indeed, several methodologies and guidelines that aim to safeguard artefacts by limiting the ranges in which the indoor temperature and relative humidity vary exist, which means energy consumption. This paper aims to quantify the energy consumption associated to three different setpoints and respective financial cost, as well as their future trend to demonstrate the positive outcome of passive retrofit measures, since they will be responsible for decreasing the building’s energy consumption and mitigating the effects of climate change in artefacts’ preservation. A validated whole-building hygrothermal model of a historic building was used coupled to climate change weather files to obtain the expected future indoor conditions for three types of climates, which were also assessed using a risk-based analysis. The positive potential of passive retrofit measures on the building’s energy consumption was shown, but the risk-based analysis showed that the measures performance are not universal since, for example, whilst the selected measures decrease the risk of chemical decay for Seville, they have the contrary behaviour for Oslo. To achieve these goals more than 1400 simulations were run in WUFI®Plus, which took more than 1600 h.

Hourly weather data projection due to climate change for impact assessment on building and infrastructure

The global climate change research has been conducted for a few years in various professional communities. In the building industry, researchers usually investigate the future building energy demands due to the climate change by simulation software. The input files to the simulation software includes projected weather data and building models. Although there exist a few mathematical methods to project the future weather, the morphing method is the most well-known among them. In the meantime, the simulation software and weather data are in a variety of formats depending on country of origin and/or simulation package. In order to provide both the research and the professional communities the possibility to undertake climate change impact assessments on buildings, coastal engineering and construction, land use and other related areas, this study develops the web-based application Weather Morph: Climate Change Weather File Generator accessible to generate the future weather data for more than 2100 locations throughout the world for all four IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change) emission scenarios in the three future time slices of the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The output of the application is projected future weather datasets in formats TMY2 and EPW for general use.

Impact of climate change on cultural heritage: a simulation study to assess the risks for conservation and thermal comfort

Artefacts are prone to various types of decay depending on the indoor conditions of the building in which they are kept. Moreover, due to climate changes, the indoor climate of these buildings may significantly change, which can endanger their preservation. Hence, this paper studies the effects of climate changes on the indoor climate of heritage buildings and on the conservation of artefacts and thermal comfort of visitors. For this purpose, a validated hygrothermal model of a naturally ventilated historic church - Saint Christopher's in Lisbon coupled with climate change weather files were used to obtain future indoor conditions. Additionally, four other climates were simulated using the building model: Seville (Mediterranean climate), Prague and Oslo (Continental climate), as well as London (Oceanic climate). The obtained indoor climates were assessed using a statistical analysis based in several known indices, a risk-based analysis and an adaptive thermal comfort model.

Energy Performance Resilience of UAE Buildings to Climate Change

A large proportion of electricity in the UAE is consumed in meeting air conditioning cooling demands in buildings where up to 80% of a buildings total electricity demand is for cooling. With projected climate changes in the UAE pre­dicting an increase in annual mean temperature of 2.8°C and minimal reductions in relative humidity and global solar radiation by 2050, cooling energy demands are set to increase. This paper reports on a study of how the climatic drivers of cooling energy demand change under a “business-as-usual” scenario of climate change. As annual energy demand for cooling per unit treated area varies across building types, a range of typical UAE commercial and residential buildings are simulated under generated annual hourly projected climate change weather da­tasets of 2020, 2050, and 2080. The results show an increase in cooling demand of 22.2% by 2050 and 40.0% by 2080 and a shift in the sources of these heat gains. The comparative effect of climate changes on the fundamental heat gain paths are examined and discussed to identify the most effective solutions for im­proving energy performance resilience to future climate change in the UAE.

Integrating climate change into meteorological weather data for building energy simulation

Current and newly built buildings will inevitably experience the effects of climate change, therefore, the design and performance of these buildings should consider weather data that includes some of the effects of climate change, instead of only using historical weather data. However, climate change weather data suitable for buildings performance simulation are typically unavailable. This research presents a method to integrate climate change features into historical weather data to make suitable climate change weather data available for buildings performance simulation. The method separates hourly dry bulb temperature into three time series components to simplify the integration of three climate change features. The method adjusts the maximum and minimum monthly averages, the number of days with maximum temperature above a specified threshold, and the number of consecutive occurrences of days with maximum temperature above a specified threshold (heatwave). The research also presents the adjustment of monthly averages of global solar irradiation. Under the climate–changed weather conditions, the annual heating thermal energy decreases by 21%–22%, the annual cooling thermal energy increases by 29%–31%, and the combined heating and cooling thermal energy decreases by 4%–5% compared to the heating and cooling thermal energy under the current weather conditions. The results indicate that climate–changed weather data is necessary as historical weather data is insufficient for accurately assessing the energy performance of a building.

DYNAMICS OF THE PULMONARY TUBERCULOSIS INCIDENCE OF TOMSK REGION POPULATION AND ITS CORRELATION WITH GEOPHYSICAL AND WEATHER-CLIMATIC FACTORS

Long-term dynamics of the incidence pulmonary tuberculosis in the Tomsk region was studied. It was shown that in all considered cases the dynamics is the unsteady oscillatory process with complex modulation: there are cyclic trends with the period of 20 and more years and fluctuations of a shorter periods. The relation of the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis with tubercle bacilli in sputum with the air temperature and precipitation has been revealed. The coincidence is found during the cyclical trends of morbidity (26.4 y.) and precipitation (26.7 y.). The dependence of long-term epidemic process from the weather-climate changes is assumed. We have found a link between the seasonal dynamics of the tuberculosis and air temperature as well as the intensity of solar ultraviolet radiation (UV-B) in Tomsk. The high incidence of tuberculosis (above average annual) is noted from November to April, low - in June-September. The vitamin D role in seasonal variations of incidence is discussed.

Book Review: Greening Health Care: How hospitals can heal the planet

Healthcare in America is undergoing many changes. From the Affordable Care Act (ACA), to electronic records, to an increasing awareness on the impact of facility design and management on patient and staff outcomes, the role of healthcare is being transformed both in clinical and in community settings. Although there has been increased awareness of the potential for healthcare to green their facilities and operations as part of these changes--particularly with the release of Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) for Health Care in 2011--making the case for why this is good for hospitals' mission and bottom line has been less coherent. Kathy Gerwig's Greening Health Care: How Hospitals Can Heal the Planet provides both an historical overview and a practical guide for the healthcare industry on how and why hospitals can green their operations, programs, and facilities.As Kaiser Permanente's Environmental Stewardship Officer and Vice President of Employee Safety, Health, and Wellness, Gerwig is an industry leader with over 20 years' experience in pioneering the greening of healthcare. This experience is reflected in the books' two objectives. First, it gives an historical overview of the origins of the green movement for healthcare, its key players, and the evolution of initiatives like the Healthy Hospitals Initiative and Practice Greenhealth, with special focus on the pioneering role of Kaiser Permanente. Second, the book aims to provide examples specific to healthcare on how hospitals have greened their operations and facilities, ranging from healthy food procurement, to hospital waste, to measuring and reporting. Each chapter begins with a personal example of Gerwig's experience in the topic to be discussed, followed by a justification of why the issue affects both environmental and human health, and finishes with examples and case studies of how Kaiser Permanente and others have addressed the topic.[Image omitted: See PDF.]The book begins with a compelling story of Gerwig's realization of the chemical hazards contained in the medical equipment in Kaiser's neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) units in 2001, and the resulting realization of the need to address environmental concerns as part of Kaiser's healthcare mission. The rest of Chapter 1 gives an overview of the green healthcare movement, initiatives and key players, arguing that healthcare has both the responsibility and the potential to make a big environmental impact given their health without harm mandate and huge resource use in the United States. Chapter 2 continues this argument, focusing on why environmental sustainability is both good for healthcare's bottom line, such as saving millions in medical waste disposal costs, and necessary, such as dealing with power outages from hurricanes and other climate change weather events. Although Gerwig's overview of climate change and its health impacts will seem overly basic for those working in the green industry, it is clear that some of Gerwig's main audience--higher level hospital executives--still need convincing, and her argument is strongest when giving healthcare-specific examples, such as hospital outages in New York City during Hurricane Katrina. Chapter 3 focuses on the business case for Kaiser's Total Health approach that includes environmental sustainability, and gives an overview of Kaiser's tools, approaches and case studies of their economic savings from green initiatives. This chapter can be a bit confusing in Gerwig's switching back and forth between the historical narrative, Kaiser's approach, and current initiatives, but is strongest when explaining the impact of the ACA on healthcare and sustainability, or why LEED was not originally appropriate for healthcare.Chapters 4, 5, and 6 make strong arguments on why food, waste, and chemicals are important for both environmental and human health. Chapter 4 excels at linking the current health focus on obesity with the need for holistic food policies and programs in healthcare, and is particularly strong in citing the hazards of chemicals in food and packaging and the opportunity for healthcare to support organic and community supported agriculture. …

Modelling to predict future energy performance of solar thermal cooling systems for building applications in the North East of England

Controlling and reducing energy consumption in buildings has been identified by policy makers and politicians as way of meeting global targets for greenhouse gas reductions and mitigating the impacts of climate change. Buildings must be designed and built to withstand harsh future weather patterns, and be energy efficient to run. In the UK, there has been an increasing demand to provide cooling in summer months and this is likely to increase in the future with global temperatures rising. While the potential of solar thermal energy to cool buildings has been investigated in warmer climates, this is not the case in the UK. An optimised solar thermal simulation model was developed using the UKCIP climate change weather prediction scenarios over the next 40 years to assess cooling effectiveness delivered by solar powered air cooling systems. This paper bridges the modern concept of solar cooling technology and future potential for new build and retrofitted commercial applications, using modern modelling concepts.

Weathering climate change. The value of social memory and ecological knowledge

Pillatt's research provides exactly the type of critique needed to stimulate debate surrounding the role of archaeology and history in climate studies. The perceptive micro-scale deconstruction of weather, landscape and people in early modern Mosser highlights the precarious disjuncture between the human experience of weather and the processes of climate variability. However, I am certainly a lot more optimistic and positive about the role that archaeology and history have to play in this debate and will perhaps provide a more macro-scale contribution to this particular archaeological dialogue. I would argue that the time-depth of human experience will always be essential in offering context and understanding to individual weather events and longer-term climate variability.

Weathering climate change: Can institutions mitigate international water conflict?

Although the subject remains contested, some have speculated that climate change could jeopardize international security. Climate change is likely to alter the runoff of many rivers due to changes in precipitation patterns. At the same time, climate change will likely increase the demand for river water, due to more frequent droughts and greater stress being placed on other sources of water. The resulting strain on transboundary rivers could contribute to international tensions and increase the risk of military conflict. This study nevertheless notes that the propensity for conflicts over water to escalate depends on whether the river in question is governed by a formal agreement. More specifically, the article argues that the ability of river treaties to adapt to the increase in water stress resulting from climate change will depend on their institutional design. It focuses on four specific institutional features: provisions for joint monitoring, conflict resolution, treaty enforcement, and the delegation of authority to intergovernmental organizations. Treaties that contain more of these features are expected to better manage conflicts caused by water stress. This expectation is tested by analyzing historical data on water availability and the occurrence of militarized conflict between signatories of river treaties, 1950–2000. The empirical results reveal that water scarcity does increase the risk of military conflict, but that this risk is offset by institutionalized agreements. These results provide evidence, albeit indirect, that the presence of international institutions can be an important means of adapting to the security consequences of climate change by playing an intervening role between climate change and international conflict.