Weather Review Research Articles

Comments on “The Myth of Cleveland Abbe: A Review of a Manufactured History of the Creation of the National Weather Service”

© 2022 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses). *Schultz is the Chief Editor of Monthly Weather Review. Corresponding author: David M. Schultz, david.schultz@manchester.ac.uk

The Unexpected Humor of Monthly Weather Review

The Unexpected Humor of Monthly Weather Review

How Journal of Climate Evolved from Monthly Weather Review

ABSTRACT This editorial is the third in a series honoring Monthly Weather Review’s 150th volume.

The Presidents’ Day Snowstorm of 18–19 February 1979: Its History and Significance at Monthly Weather Review

Abstract This editorial is the second in a series honoring Monthly Weather Review’s 150th volume. The first was the Historical Review that leads off the January 2022 issue.

Monthly Weather Review at 150 Years: Its History, Impact, and Legacy

Abstract Monthly Weather Review, one of the oldest continuously published meteorological journals in the world, publishes its 150th volume this year. In January 1873, the U.S. War Department’s Army Signal Service began producing this monthly report summarizing weather across the United States. Its first issue consisted of a one-page narrative of weather conditions and storms and one chart depicting tracks of low pressure centers during that month. In 1891, Monthly Weather Review continued as a government publication with the transfer of the nation’s weather service from the military to the newly established U.S. Weather Bureau. Over time and sometimes erratically, it grew into a scientific journal. In 1974, Monthly Weather Review was transferred to the American Meteorological Society, who continues to publish it to this day (although a 2003 proposal might have ended it). This Historical Review discusses some of the journal’s history and impact, as well as its legacy. This review also compiles for the first time a complete list of Monthly Weather Review editors. The research published within Monthly Weather Review has included highly cited, ground-breaking articles on weather and climate phenomena (e.g., extratropical and tropical cyclones, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Madden–Julian oscillation), general circulation modeling, and numerical weather prediction. The data published in the early issues have been used—and continue to be used to this day—for a variety of applied research and historical analysis purposes. The composition and content of Monthly Weather Review have changed over the past century and a half, continuing to evolve with the modern publishing landscape, with color figures at no additional cost, open-access articles, open data, and, in the near future, embedded figure animations.

Sensitivity of snowfall forecast over North China to ice crystal deposition/sublimation parameterizations in the WSM6 cloud microphysics scheme

AbstractIce‐phase cloud microphysical processes are very complicated, and there are still many uncertainties in current microphysics parameterization schemes. In this study, two alternative ice crystal deposition/sublimation (ICDS) parameterizations, following the Harrington et al., Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 1995, 52, 4344–4366 and Koenig, Monthly Weather Review, 1972, 100, 417–423 methods, were implemented into the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Single‐Moment 6‐class Microphysics (WSM6) scheme in the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES) regional operational model to investigate their impact on overestimation of snowfall over North China. The results show that the snowfall amount and cloud particle composition are very sensitive to the ICDS parameterization. Sensitivity tests with WSM6 using the Harrington and Koenig ICDSs, referred to as WSM6_H and WSM6_K, respectively, notably reduced overestimation of the snowfall amount and simulated more realistic supercooled cloud water content compared with ERA5 reanalysis data. The vertical distributions, intensities, and duration of radar echoes simulated by WSM6_H are the most consistent with millimeter‐wavelength cloud radar observations. There is competition for water vapor in WSM6 due to the sequential order in which processes are updated. This tends to weaken the deposition of snow and graupel and the condensation of cloud water when the deposition of ice crystals is too strong in a cold region. In both WSM6_H and WSM6_K, the deposition processes of ice crystals are reduced and the other microphysical transformation processes become more active compared with WSM6. Overall, the WSM6_H configuration improves the forecast performance as evaluated by Taylor diagrams for eight snowfall days over North China. The ICDS parameterizations must therefore be handled carefully due to their large uncertainties in the development of the cloud microphysics schemes.

On the continuous time limit of the ensemble Kalman filter

We present recent results on the existence of a continuous time limit for Ensemble Kalman Filter algorithms. In the setting of continuous signal and observation processes, we apply the original Ensemble Kalman Filter algorithm proposed by Burgers, van Leeuwen, and Evensen [Monthly Weather Review 126 (1998), pp. 1719–1724] as well as a recent variant of de Wiljes, Reich, and Stannat [SIAM J. Appl. Dyn. Syst. 17 (2018), no. 2, pp. 1152–1181] to the respective discretizations and show that in the limit of decreasing stepsize the filter equations converge to an ensemble of interacting (stochastic) differential equations in the ensemble-mean-square sense. Our analysis also allows for the derivation of convergence rates with respect to the stepsize. An application of our analysis is the rigorous derivation of continuous-time ensemble filtering algorithms consistent with discrete-time approximation schemes. Conversely, the continuous time limit allows for a better qualitative and quantitative analysis of the discrete-time counterparts using the rich theory of dynamical systems in continuous time.

Comment

Comment

Large-Eddy Simulation of Supersonic Round Jets: Effects of Reynolds and Mach Numbers

Large-eddy simulations of supersonic turbulent jets are performed for Reynolds numbers of for the purpose of understanding the effects of Reynolds numbers and the Mach number . The subgrid terms in large-eddy simulations are modeled using a combination of the dynamic Smagorinsky (“General Circulation Experiments with the Primitive Equations. Part I, Basic Experiments,” Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 54, No. 1, 1963, pp. 99–164) and Yoshizawa (“Statistical Theory for Compressible Turbulent Shear Flows, with the Application to Subgrid Modelling,” Physics of Fluids, Vol. 54, No. 1, 1986, pp. 2152–2164) models. Simulations are performed for supersonic jets having Reynolds numbers of 1500, 3700, and 7900, and Mach numbers of 1.4 and 2.1. Two of the simulations are validated with experimental data. The Reynolds number value is observed to play a role in the transition to turbulence but, once transition is achieved, it has a subdued effect above a threshold value; that is, as seen experimentally for supersonic flows, a similarity is found here. This similarity occurs for Reynolds number values that are relatively small compared to those typical of the fully turbulent regime. The turbulent structures in the transition region are more coherent, and the potential core is longer when the Mach number is larger, which leads to a slower downstream velocity decay. The root-mean-square velocities are biased in the axial direction, as expected. In the fully turbulent regions, the computed Reynolds stress is higher for a larger-Mach-number jet. Peak pressure fluctuations occur at about half a jet diameter, radially away from the centerline of the jet, and this location is independent of both the Reynolds number and Mach number values. The pressure–velocity correlations and the turbulent kinetic energy profiles are investigated along the centerline and radial directions, and it is found that the peak turbulent kinetic energy occurs at the same location as the maximum pressure fluctuations.

Big Data, Weathermen and Economists: Never fall in love with a model

The overabundance of data which now characterizes the work environment of meteorologists, data scientists and risk managers requires new methods of data treatment. Thus, Machine Learning entered into weather modelisation. Because they have chosen to work with non-linear models rather than linear ones, weather specialists are presented as quick to adopt new techniques, more suited to the realities they are trying to capture. This even made some say that weathermen had much to teach to economists, who fail to abandon their old econometric ‘recipes’. Does Machine learning really solve all the problems at once? Are Linear Models really outdated?

Quantifying the Volunteer Effort of Scientific Peer Reviewing

A survey of 310 reviewers for Monthly Weather Review addresses how much time and effort goes into the peer-review process and provides insight into how reviewers function. Using these data, the individual and collective contributions of volunteer peer reviewers to the peer-review process can be determined. Individually, respondents to the survey review an average of 2 manuscripts a year for Monthly Weather Review, 4 manuscripts a year for AMS journals, and 8 manuscripts a year in total, although some review more than 20 manuscripts a year. Each review takes an average of 9.6 h. Summing the individual contributions of the reviewers, respondents averaged 18 h yr−1 performing reviews for Monthly Weather Review, 36 h yr−1 for AMS journals, and 63 h yr−1 for all journals. The collective time that all of the reviewers put into the peer-review process for all manuscripts submitted to Monthly Weather Review for each year amounts to 362,179 h, or more than 4 years of voluntary labor valued at over $2.34 million. Nearly all respondents (95%) are comfortable with their current load, but only 30% said that they would be willing to perform more reviews. Because the number of submissions to journals has been increasing over time and is unlikely to decrease in the near future, this burden is anticipated to grow. Options for reducing the burden include using fewer reviewers per manuscript, increasing the number of unilateral decisions made by editors, and increasing the size of the reviewer pool (particularly from active retired and early-career scientists).

The Central European and Russian Heat Event of July–August 2010

No abstract available.

The real first weather satellite picture

The real first weather satellite picture

Rejection rates for multiple-part manuscripts

Multiple-part manuscripts are those submitted to a journal and intended for publication as a series, usually having “Part 1,” “Part I,” … “Part N” in the title. Although some journals prohibit such submissions, other journals (including Monthly Weather Review) have no such restrictions. To examine how reviewers and editors view multiple-part manuscripts, 308 multiple-part manuscripts submitted to Monthly Weather Review from May 2001 through February 2010 were examined. For multiple-part manuscripts having reached a final decision, 67% were accepted, which was also the average acceptance rate of all manuscripts (67%). Part I manuscripts submitted alone had a lower acceptance rate (61%) than the average, whereas Part II manuscripts submitted alone had a higher acceptance rate (77%) than the average. Two-part manuscripts submitted together had an acceptance rate (67%) comparable to the average. Typical reviewer comments for Part I manuscripts submitted alone included the manuscript being too long for the available results and the author making claims in Part I that would be supported in the unseen Part II. Typical comments for Part II manuscripts submitted alone included the somewhat contradictory statements that material was unnecessarily duplicated in the two manuscripts and more repetition was needed between the two parts. For two-part manuscripts submitted together, reviewers often recommended condensing the two manuscripts and merging them into one. In some cases, editors rejected manuscripts even though no reviewer recommended rejection because the sum of all reviewers’ comments would require substantial reorganization of the manuscripts. The results of this study suggest the following recommendations for authors considering writing multiple-part manuscripts: Write manuscripts that are sensibly independent of each other, make minimal reference to unsubmitted manuscripts, and have sufficient and substantiated scientific content within each manuscript.

Are three heads better than two? How the number of reviewers and editor behavior affect the rejection rate

Editors of peer-reviewed journals obtain recommendations from peer reviewers as guidance in deciding upon the suitability of a submitted manuscript for publication. To investigate whether the number of reviewers used by an editor affects the rate at which manuscripts are rejected, 500 manuscripts submitted to Monthly Weather Review during 15.5 months in 2007–2008 were examined. Two and three reviewers were used for 306 and 155 manuscripts, respectively (92.2% of all manuscripts). Rejection rates for initial decisions and final decisions were not significantly different whether two or three reviewers were used. Manuscripts with more reviewers did not spend more rounds in review or have different rejection rates at each round. The results varied by editor, however, with some editors rejecting more two-reviewer manuscripts and others rejecting more three-reviewer manuscripts. Editors described using their scientific expertise in the decision-making process, either in determining the number of reviews to be sought or in making decisions once the reviews were received, approaches that differ from that of relying purely upon reviewer agreement as reported previously in the literature. A simple model is constructed for three decision-making strategies for editors: rejection when all reviewers recommend rejection, rejection when any reviewer recommends rejection, and rejection when a majority of reviewers recommend rejection. By plotting the probability of reviewer rejection against the probability of editor rejection, the decision-making process can be graphically illustrated, demonstrating that, for this dataset, editors are likely to reject a manuscript when any reviewer recommends rejection.

Hamiltonian particle‐mesh simulations for a non‐hydrostatic vertical slice model

AbstractA Lagrangian particle method is developed for the simulation of atmospheric flows in a non‐hydrostatic vertical slice model. The proposed particle method is an extension of the Hamiltonian particle mesh (HPM) [Frank J, Gottwald G, Reich S. 2002. The Hamiltonian particle‐mesh method. In Meshfree Methods for Partial Differential Equations, Lecture Notes in Computational Science and Engineering, Vol. 26, Griebel M, Schweitzer M (eds). Springer‐Verlag: Berlin Heidelberg; 131–142] and provides preservation of mass, momentum, and energy. We tested the method for the gravity wave test in Skamarock W, Klemp J. 1994. Efficiency and accuracy of the Klemp‐Wilhelmson time‐splitting technique. Monthly Weather Review 122: 2623–2630 and the bubble experiments in Robert A. 1993. Bubble convection experiments with a semi‐implicit formulation of the Euler equations. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 50: 1865–1873. The accuracy of the solutions from the HPM simulation is comparable to those reported in these references. A particularly appealing aspect of the method is in its non‐diffusive transport of potential temperature. The solutions are maintained smooth largely due to a ‘regularization’ of pressure, which is controlled carefully to preserve the total energy and the time‐reversibility of the model. In case of the bubble experiments, one also needs to regularize the buoyancy contributions. The simulations demonstrate that particle methods are potentially applicable to non‐hydrostatic atmospheric flow regimes and that they lead to a highly accurate transport of materially conserved quantities such as potential temperature under adiabatic flow regimes. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

The influence of lateral mixing on a phytoplankton bloom: Distribution in the Kerguelen Plateau region

A unique phytoplankton bloom appears every year during the austral spring/summer in the northern Kerguelen Plateau region. The Kerguelen Ocean and Plateau compared Study (KEOPS) showed that an increase in subsurface iron coming up from the seafloor through vertical mixing was responsible for the observed increase in chlorophyll- a above the plateau. We demonstrate that the bloom pattern is not a simple increase of biomass over shallow water: it is strongly influenced by the bathymetry and its spatial extent controlled by strong currents around the plateau. Here we focus on lateral mixing process to explain the particular shape of the bloom. We use the Smagorinsky [1963. General circulation experiments with the primitive equations. I. The basic experiment. Monthly Weather Review 91 (3), 99–164] formula to estimate and map fields of lateral mixing time scales ( τ) due to barotropic tidal currents, barotropic atmospheric forced currents, Ekman velocities and geostrophic velocities. Results show that short time scale mixing is strongly influenced by the tides while the other processes have minor influences. Comparisons of τ and satellite chlorophyll- a images show that the spatial pattern of the bloom seems to be delimited by a barrier of high lateral mixing that is essentially due to tides. This emphasises the role played by the tides over the Kerguelen Plateau in supplying iron to the phytoplankton and containing the horizontal shape of the bloom. This is one of the first times such a link has been demonstrated, which has implications for the study of iron advection in the ocean.

Large eddy simulations for quasi-2D turbulence in shallow flows: A comparison between different subgrid scale models

In this study, the performance of the horizontal large eddy simulation module, developed at the University of Leuven (HLES-KULeuven module) is assessed. A comparison between different subgrid scale models has been carried out. The study is concerned with the non-rotating and unstratified flows. The results of the simulation for an oscillatory backward facing (BFS) flow are presented in case of an expanding flume based on a one-length scale approach and a two-length scale approach. Three subgrid scale (SGS) models have been tested: Smagorinsky SGS model (Smagorinsky, J., (1963). General circulation experiments with the primitive equations, I. the basic experiments. Monthly Weather Review, 91(3), 99–164), Uittenbogaard SGS model (Uittenbogaard, R.E., and van Vossen, B., (2004). Subgrid-scale model for quasi-2D turbulence in shallow water. Shallow Flows. Jirka and Uijttewaal (Eds.), Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN 90 5809 700 5) and a proposed two-length scale approach. The first two models are considered to be a one-length scale models. A simulation without a subgrid scale model for the horizontal mixing has also been conducted. In all simulations, a quadratic friction model parameterizes the dissipation produced by the 3D-subdepth scale turbulence. The two-length scale concept uses a newly mixing length formulation for the quasi-2D turbulence and doesn't depend on the filter width in contrast to the one-length scale approach, in which the mixing length is function of the filter width. The outputs of the HLES-KULeuven module have been compared with the experimental data taken from Stelling, G.S., and Wang, L.X., (1984). Experiments and computations on separating flow in an expanding flume. Dept. Civil Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Report 2–84.). The two-length scale approach has been validated with experimental data from SERC Flood Channel Facility at HR Wallingford. In general, there is a qualitative agreement with the experimental data. It has also been found that the two-length scale approach produces more elongated and less isotropic vortex than the one-length scale models.

Teaching and Learning Guide for: The Current Debate on the Linkage between Global Warming and Hurricanes

Teaching and Learning Guide for: The Current Debate on the Linkage between Global Warming and Hurricanes

A Monthly Upper-Air Dataset for North America Back to 1922 from the Monthly Weather Review

AbstractUpper-air observations with kites, aircraft, and radiosondes were performed in the United States operationally since the 1890s. In this paper, the authors present a reevaluation of newly digitized monthly mean values from the Monthly Weather Review back to 1922. Data from 46 U.S. weather stations are presented with a focus on early kite and aircraft observations during the 1922–38 period. A quality assessment of the data, based on reconstructed reference series, is carried out and the quality of the monthly mean data is found to be sufficient for analysis of variability in upper-level circulation. Anomalies of upper-level temperatures from the reevaluated station data, together with surface fields, are shown for selected periods.