Weather Research And Forecasting Output Research Articles

Application of the NCAR FastEddy® Microscale Model to a Lake Breeze Front

This study investigates how urban environments influence boundary layer processes during the passage of a Great Salt Lake breeze using a multi-scale modeling system, NCAR’s WRF-Coupled GPU-accelerated FastEddy® (FE) model. Motivated by the need for sub-10 m scale decision support tools for uncrewed aerial systems (UAS), the FE model was used to simulate turbulent flows around urban structures at 5 m horizontal resolution with a 9 km × 9 km domain centered on the Salt Lake City International Airport. FE was one-way nested within a 1 km resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) domain spanning 400 × 400 km. Focused on the late morning lake breeze on 3 June 2022, an FE simulation was compared with WRF outputs and validated using surface and radar observations. The FE simulation revealed low sensible heat flux and cool near-surface temperatures, attributed to a relatively low specification of thermal roughness suitable for previously tested FE applications. Lake breeze characteristics were minimally affected, as FE effectively resolved interactions between the lake breeze and urban-induced turbulent eddies, providing insights into fine-scale boundary layer processes. FE’s GPU acceleration ensured efficient simulations, underscoring its potential for aiding decision support in UAS operations in complex urban environments.

Application of the NCAR FastEddy® Microscale Model to a Lake Breeze Front

This study investigates how urban environments influence boundary layer processes during the passage of a Great Salt Lake breeze using a multi-scale modeling system, NCAR’s WRF-Coupled GPU-accelerated FastEddy® (FE) model. Motivated by the need for sub-10 m scale decision support tools for uncrewed aerial systems (UAS), the FE model was used to simulate turbulent flows around urban structures at 5 m horizontal resolution with a 9 km × 9 km domain centered on the Salt Lake City International Airport. FE was one-way nested within a 1 km resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) domain spanning 400 × 400 km. Focused on the late morning lake breeze on 3 June 2022, an FE simulation was compared with WRF outputs and validated using surface and radar observations. The FE simulation revealed low sensible heat flux and cool near-surface temperatures, attributed to a relatively low specification of thermal roughness suitable for previously tested FE applications. Lake breeze characteristics were minimally affected, as FE effectively resolved interactions between the lake breeze and urban-induced turbulent eddies, providing insights into fine-scale boundary layer processes. FE’s GPU acceleration ensured efficient simulations, underscoring its potential for aiding decision support in UAS operations in complex urban environments.

Challenges of constructing and selecting the “perfect” boundary conditions for the large-eddy simulation model PALM

Abstract. We present the process of and difficulties in acquiring the proper boundary conditions (BCs) for the state-of-the-art large-eddy simulation (LES)-based PALM model system. We use the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as a source of inputs for the PALM preprocessor and investigate the influence of the mesoscale model on the performance of the PALM model. A total of 16 different WRF configurations were used as a proxy for a multi-model ensemble. We developed a technique for selecting suitable sets of BCs, performed PALM model simulations driven by these BCs, and investigated the consequences of selecting a sub-optimal WRF configuration. The procedure was tested for four episodes in different seasons of the year 2019, during which WRF and PALM outputs were evaluated against the atmospheric radiosounding observations. We show that the PALM model outputs are heavily dependent on the imposed BCs and have different responses at different times of the day and in different seasons. We demonstrate that the main driver of errors is the mesoscale model and that the PALM model is capable of attenuating but not fully correcting them. The PALM model attenuates the impact of errors in BCs in wind speed, while for the air temperature, PALM shows variable behavior with respect to driving conditions. This study stresses the importance of high-quality driving BCs and the complexity of the process of their construction and selection.

Identifying wind regimes near Kuwait using self-organizing maps

Optimization of wind energy integration requires knowing the relationship between weather patterns and winds they cause. For a region with less-studied weather such as the Middle East, climatology becomes more vital. The Shagaya Renewable Energy Park in development in Kuwait experiences regional wind regimes that affect wind power production. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model output allowed investigation into the weather regimes most likely to impact Shagaya Park. The self-organizing maps (SOMs) machine-learning method clustered the WRF output into six primary weather regimes experienced by the Middle East. According to the wind regimes mapped by the SOM, two of the six regimes have average wind speeds of approximately 9.9 and 8.6 m s−1 at 80 m near Shagaya Park, as well as wind speed and estimated wind power distributions that are more favorable to wind power production in Kuwait. One regime depicts a strong northwesterly wind called the summer shamal, and the second is associated with strong westerlies. Regimes less favorable for Kuwaiti wind power production are represented by the remaining four SOM nodes: local weak southeasterlies, an African nocturnal low-level jet, a daytime planetary boundary layer, and local northwesterlies from autumn to spring. The remaining four SOM nodes have average wind speeds of 5.7–7.2 m s−1 and wind speed and estimated wind power distributions which indicate regimes less favorable for wind power production in Kuwait.

Evaluation of three radiation schemes of the WRF-Solar model for global surface solar radiation forecast: A case study in Egypt

This study aims to assess the performance of three different radiation schemes in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model against ECMWF fifth generation (ERA5) Reanalysis data over Egypt. Dudhia, rrtmg, and Goddard schemes were used to simulate Global Horizontal Irradiance (SR) during 2017. Sixteen stations were selected to represent the different climate conditions in Egypt. The observed SR data is only available at five stations and used to evaluate the accuracy of ERA5 and WRF output. SR data at the other eleven stations were extracted from ERA5 to evaluate the corresponding values from WRF simulation. Coefficient of determination (R2), mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE), monthly standard deviation (STDV) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE%) are the implemented evaluation statistical parameters in the study. The results showed that ERA5 and WRF Dudhia scheme have reliable results as compared to the observations at the five stations. Also, the WRF Dudhia scheme simulates the SR at the other eleven stations better than rrtmg, and Goddard schemes as compared to ERA5 dataset. Where, the three WRF radiation schemes overestimate the SR along the eleven stations and underestimate at Alexandria station by −0.15 KWh/m2, which may due to the weather conditions over these sites. But the Dudhia scheme over the eleven stations has the lowest MBE (<0.34 KWh/m2), RMSE (<0.58 KWh/m2), and MAPE (<−2%), with R2 more than 0.985 at most stations.

Prediction of Convective Available Potential Energy and Equivalent Potential Temperature using a Coupled WRF and Deep Learning for Typhoon Identification

To predict typhoons in the western North Pacific Ocean, it is required to predict the determinants of typhoon activities. The formation of the typhoon can be controlled by Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and Equivalent Potential Temperature (theta-e). To predict the variables, a mesoscale numerical model of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) can be used. However, the output of WRF needs to improve to obtain a more accurate CAPE and theta-e prediction. This study uses a coupled WRF model and Deep Learning (DL) Multilayer Perceptron Regressor approach to increase CAPE and theta-e prediction skills. Simulation with dataset scenarios with WRF outputs as predictors and sounding data as predictors are developed and tested to obtain the most appropriate package of deep learning simulation. The study found that coupled models provide increased mean accuracy of theta-e and CAPE, namely 16.6% and 32.0% higher than using original WRF, respectively. This study also shows the difference of skill scores in the spatial distribution of CAPE and theta-e of WRF result and its coupled model.

Role of urban boundary layer dynamics and ventilation efficiency in a severe air pollution episode in Tehran, Iran

Tehran faces a significant health challenge due to severe air pollution episodes during wintertime, which are associated with high concentrations of fine particulate matter with a diameter less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5). In this study, we investigated meteorology conditions of one of the severe air pollution episodes, occurred from 27th December 2020 to 15th January 2021, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. To gain insights into this episode, we also modeled a clean episode for comparison. Model validation of land surface temperature using remote sensing showed acceptable performance as well as ground observations for other parameters. We then calculated the ventilation coefficient (VC) from the WRF outputs and analyzed the results statistically. Results indicate the severe reduction in both VC and planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) during the polluted episode. We further linked the decrease in PBLH and VC of the polluted episode to a high-pressure system above 1020 hPa. In contrast, the results for the clean episode indicate that the low-pressure system as low as 1010 hPa led to higher PBLH and VC than during the polluted episode. This low-pressure system favors the reduction of PM2.5 levels to lower than 21 μgm−3.

Identifying spatiotemporal propagation of droughts in the agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China with long-term WRF simulations

Understanding the spatiotemporal evolution of droughts is critical for food security and water allocation. In this study, we propose an approach to construct the linkage of the propagation from meteorological drought to agricultural drought to explore the simultaneous spatiotemporal evolution of droughts based on a 3-dimensional clustering algorithm. We first evaluate the improvement of the downscaled high-resolution outputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to reanalysis data in detecting wet-dry variations in the agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China (APENC). The WRF simulation results well characterize the evolution of droughts with a high correlation coefficient of 0.82 (p<0.05), which implies that the WRF downscaling model provides reliable hydrometeorological results for assessing and analyzing long-term wet-dry variations. Subsequently, we identify and track the spatiotemporal evolution of each individual drought event in the APENC for the first time. Based on the standardized precipitation index calculated from the WRF outputs, a total of 185 drought clusters were identified during 2000–2017, with 28 drought events lasting at least 3 months duration occurring in the APENC. The characteristics of the different drought events vary considerably. Droughts in the APENC have a larger percentage of propagation to the northeast and northwest and migrated hundreds of kilometers from the source sites. The results of the propagation of meteorological droughts to agricultural droughts indicate that 53.75% of the meteorological drought events progressed further to agricultural droughts. Agricultural droughts exhibit spatial variations consistent with meteorological droughts. Agricultural droughts have 1.69 months onset lag time, 2.12 months termination lag time, and overall longer duration than meteorological droughts in the APENC. Our findings provide valuable information for the mechanism and prediction of drought propagation.

Effect of local climate zone (LCZ) and building category (BC) classification on the simulation of urban climate and air-conditioning load in Hong Kong

Reliable energy models are required to predict urban-scale air-conditioning (AC) load under extreme outdoor temperatures which is crucial to power security. In this study, we proposed a new landuse/landcover (LULC) scheme for these models by combining the local climate zones (LCZs) from World Urban Database Access Portal Tools (WUDAPT) and building category (BC) map. Apart from evaluating against the conventional LULC of Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) and WUDAPT, the impact of urban canopy parameters and BC on the simulated meteorological conditions and AC load during the 2016 heatwave in Hong Kong was examined by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Incorporating LCZs (BC) reduced the bias of 2-m temperature (T2), 2-m relative humidity (RH2), and AC load intensity by 0.4 °C (2.0 °C), 1.98% (0.68%) and 6.78 W m−2 (13.09 W m−2), respectively. It captured the heterogeneous, intra-urban T2 and turbulence kinetic energy (TKE). Further sub-classifying the BC in LCZs led to WUDAPT/BC which performed even better and significantly improved WRF output. It simulated well the daytime wind speed, mitigated the overprediction (underprediction) of T2 (RH2), and rectified the underpredicted AC load in WUDAPT. Its benefit was prominent in daytime as well as in compact high-rise/mid-rise and open high-rise areas. (200 words).

Forecasting and Optimization of Wind Speed over the Gobi Grassland Wind Farm in Western Inner Mongolia

Wind power, as one of the primary clean energies, is an important way to achieve the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. Therefore, high-resolution measurement and accurate forecasting of wind speed are very important in the organization and dispatching of the wind farm. In this study, several methodologies, including the mesoscale WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model, mathematical statistics algorithms, and machine learning algorithms, were adopted to systematically explore the predictability and optimization of wind speed of a Gobi grassland wind farm located in western Inner Mongolia. Results show that the rear-row turbines were significantly affected by upwind turbine wakes. The output power of upwind-group turbines was 591 KW with an average wind speed of 7.66 m/s, followed by 532 KW and 7.02 m/s in the middle group and 519 KW and 6.92 m/s in the downwind group. The higher the wind speed was, the more significantly the wake effect was presented. Intercomparison between observations and WRF simulations showed an average deviation of 3.73 m/s. Two postprocessing methods of bilinear interpolation and nearest replacement could effectively reduce the errors by 34.85% and 36.19%, respectively, with average deviations of 2.43 m/s and 2.38 m/s. A cycle correction algorithm named Average Variance–Trend (AVT) can further optimize the errors to 2.14 m/s and 2.13 m/s. In another aspect, the categorical boosting (CatBoost) artificial intelligence algorithm also showed a great performance in improving the accuracy of WRF outputs, and the four-day average deviation of 26–29 September decreased from 3.21 m/s to around 2.50 m/s. However, because of the influence of large-scale circulations, there still exist large errors in the results of various correction algorithms. It is therefore suggested through the investigation that data assimilation of the northwest and Mongolian plateau, boundary layer parameterization scheme optimization, and embedding of high-resolution topographic data could have great potential for obtaining more accurate forecasting products.

Sensitivity analysis of weather research and forecasting (WRF) model output variables to the thunderstorm lifecycle and its application

Accurate and timely forecasts of thunderstorms at lead times of more than 6 h can greatly improve the efficiency of air traffic flow management. To achieve this goal, thunderstorms occurring at Urumqi International Airport in 2020 were investigated using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model output variables. An attempt was made to study the sensitivity of WRF output variables to the different stages (cumulus, mature, and dissipating) of the thunderstorm lifecycle. The variables considered in this paper include the wind speed (WSPD), composite radar reflectivity, echo top height, convective available potential energy (CAPE), convective inhibition (CIN), and lift index (LI). It was found that CIN is the most sensitive to an approaching thunderstorm. WSPD is extremely sensitive to the thunderstorm occurrence, closely followed by CIN. CAPE, CIN, and LI are all sensitive to dissipating thunderstorms. To improve thunderstorm forecasts, a simple and practical objective thunderstorm forecasting method, i.e., the thunderstorm probability (TSP) forecasting method, based on the combination of the above-mentioned variables, was proposed. Comparison of objective TSP forecasts and manual subjective forecasts indicated that TSP forecasts performed much better than did manual forecasts over the summer period of 2020.

Assessing the Performance of WRF Model in Simulating Heavy Precipitation Events over East Africa Using Satellite-Based Precipitation Product

This study investigated the capability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate seven different heavy precipitation (PRE) events that occurred across East Africa in the summer of 2020. The WRF model outputs were evaluated against high-resolution satellite-based observations, which were obtained from prior evaluations of several satellite observations with 30 stations’ data. The synoptic conditions accompanying the events were also investigated to determine the conditions that are conducive to heavy PRE. The verification of the WRF output was carried out using the area-related root mean square error (RMSE)-based fuzzy method. This method quantifies the similarity of PRE intensity distribution between forecast and observation at different spatial scales. The results showed that the WRF model reproduced the heavy PRE with PRE magnitudes ranging from 6 to &gt;30 mm/day. The spatial pattern from the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CCS-CDR) was close to that of the WRF output. The area-related RMSE with respect to observation showed that the error in the model tended to reduce as the spatial scale increased for all the events. The WRF and high-resolution satellite data had an obvious advantage when validating the heavy PRE events in 2020. This study demonstrated that WRF may be used for forecasting heavy PRE events over East Africa when high resolutions and subsequent simulation setups are used.

Eight scenarios rapid update cycle effect on weather radar data assimilation WRF toward rainfall prediction in Palembang (cases study of flood events on November 12th, 2018)

Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) is an open source numerical weather prediction model that can be used for high resolution rainfall predictions. Besides these advantages, WRF output accuracy can be affected by the initial condition. The accuration of WRF model can be improved by data assimilation. Data assimilation is combining observation data with model data to improve the initial state of atmospheric flow. This study aims to investigate the effect of assimilation weather radar in models using WRF for predictions rainfall events in Palembang region on November 12th, 2018. This study uses radar radial velocity data as input data for assimilation. The assimilation technique uses the 3DVAR with rapid update cycle (RUC) procedure 1 hour, 3 hours, 6 hours with spin up 12 and 6 hours. The output of the model verified using Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) data and using rain gauge data for point verification. The results of this study indicate that the output of the assimilation model, especially in the spin-up 12 hours skenario implementation of the 1-hour RUC is better than the model without assimilation. From the eight scenario models implemented, it can be concluded that the 12 hours spin up is better than the 6 hours spin up.

WRF-simulated low-level jets over Iowa: characterization and sensitivity studies

Abstract. Output from 6 months of high-resolution simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are analyzed to characterize local low-level jets (LLJs) over Iowa for winter and spring in the contemporary climate. Low-level jets affect rotor plane aerodynamic loading, turbine structural loading and turbine performance, and thus accurate characterization and identification are pertinent. Analyses using a detection algorithm wherein the wind speed above and below the jet maximum must be below 80 % of the jet wind speed within a vertical window of approximately 20–530 m a.g.l. (above ground level) indicate the presence of an LLJ in at least one of the 14 700 4 km×4 km grid cells over Iowa on 98 % of nights. Nocturnal LLJs are most frequently associated with stable stratification and low turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and hence are more frequent during the winter months. The spatiotemporal mean LLJ maximum (jet core) wind speed is 9.55 m s−1, and the mean height is 182 m. Locations of high LLJ frequency and duration across the state are seasonally varying, with a mean duration of 3.5 h. The highest frequency occurs in the topographically complex northwest of the state in winter and in the flatter northeast of the state in spring. Sensitivity of LLJ characteristics to the (i) LLJ definition and (ii) vertical resolution at which the WRF output is sampled is examined. LLJ definitions commonly used in the literature are considered in the first sensitivity analysis. These sensitivity analyses indicate that LLJ characteristics are highly variable with definition. Use of different definitions identifies both different frequencies of LLJs and different LLJ events. Further, when the model output is down-sampled to lower vertical resolution, the mean jet core wind speed height decreases, but spatial distributions of regions of high frequency and duration are conserved. Implementation of a polynomial interpolation to extrapolate down-sampled output to full-resolution results in reduced sensitivity of LLJ characteristics to down-sampling.

WRF4PALM v1.0: a mesoscale dynamical driver for the microscale PALM model system 6.0

Abstract. A set of Python-based tools, WRF4PALM, has been developed for offline nesting of the PALM model system 6.0 into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modelling system. Time-dependent boundary conditions of the atmosphere are critical for accurate representation of microscale meteorological dynamics in high-resolution real-data simulations. WRF4PALM generates initial and boundary conditions from WRF outputs to provide time-varying meteorological forcing for PALM. The WRF model has been used across the atmospheric science community for a broad range of multidisciplinary applications. The PALM model system 6.0 is a turbulence-resolving large-eddy simulation model with an additional Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) mode for atmospheric and oceanic boundary layer studies at microscale (Maronga et al., 2020). Currently PALM has the capability to ingest output from the regional scale Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO) atmospheric prediction model. However, COSMO is not an open source model and requires a licence agreement for operational use or academic research (http://www.cosmo-model.org/, last access: 23 April 2021). This paper describes and validates the new free and open-source WRF4PALM tools (available at https://github.com/dongqi-DQ/WRF4PALM, last access: 23 April 2021). Two case studies using WRF4PALM are presented for Christchurch, New Zealand, which demonstrate successful PALM simulations driven by meteorological forcing from WRF outputs. The WRF4PALM tools presented here can potentially be used for micro- and mesoscale studies worldwide, for example in boundary layer studies, air pollution dispersion modelling, wildfire emissions and spread, urban weather forecasting, and agricultural meteorology.

Use of Simulated and Observed Meteorology for Air Quality Modeling and Source Ranking for an Industrial Region

The Gaussian-based dispersion model American Meteorological Society/Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model (AERMOD) is being used to predict concentration for air quality management in several countries. A study was conducted for an industrial area, Chembur of Mumbai city in India, to assess the agreement of observed surface meteorology and weather research and forecasting (WRF) output through AERMOD with ground-level NOx and PM10 concentrations. The model was run with both meteorology and emission inventory. When results were compared, it was observed that the air quality predictions were better with the use of WRF output data for a model run than with the observed meteorological data. This study showed that the onsite meteorological data can be generated by WRF which saves resources and time, and it could be a good option in low-middle income countries (LIMC) where meteorological stations are not available. Also, this study quantifies the source contribution in the ambient air quality for the region. NOx and PM10 emission loads were always observed to be high from the industries but NOx concentration was high from vehicular sources and PM10 concentration was high from industrial sources in ambient concentration. This methodology can help the regulatory authorities to develop control strategies for air quality management in LIMC.

Valley Winds at the Local Scale: Correcting Routine Weather Forecast Using Artificial Neural Networks

In regions of complex topography, local flows are difficult to forecast on a routine basis, especially in stable conditions, due to the coarse resolution of operational models. The Cadarache valley (southeastern France) features this sort of complex topography. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is run daily to forecast the weather in this region with a horizontal resolution of 3 km. Such a resolution cannot resolve all topography details of the small Cadarache valley, and therefore its local wind patterns. Other variables, however, that are less dependent on the subgrid topography, are satisfactorily forecasted, and used as inputs to an artificial neural network (ANN) designed to reproduce wind observations inside the valley from WRF forecasts. A variable selection procedure identified 5 key input variables that best drive the ANN. With respect to the WRF output, the ANN significantly improves forecasted low-level winds, both for speed and direction. This study demonstrates the potential for the ANN technique to be used as a correcting tool to forecast weather conditions at the local scale when numerical modeling is performed at a resolution too coarse to take into account the effect of local topography.

WRF Modeling of Deep Convection and Hail for Wind Power Applications

AbstractDeep convection and the related occurrence of hail, intense precipitation, and wind gusts represent a hazard to a range of energy infrastructure including wind turbine blades. Wind turbine blade leading-edge erosion (LEE) is caused by the impact of falling hydrometeors onto rotating wind turbine blades. It is a major source of wind turbine maintenance costs and energy losses from wind farms. In the U.S. southern Great Plains (SGP), where there is widespread wind energy development, deep convection and hail events are common, increasing the potential for precipitation-driven LEE. A 25-day Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulation conducted at convection-permitting resolution and using a detailed microphysics scheme is carried out for the SGP to evaluate the effectiveness in modeling the wind and precipitation conditions relevant to LEE potential. WRF output for these properties is evaluated using radar observations of precipitation (including hail) and reflectivity, in situ wind speed measurements, and wind power generation. This research demonstrates some skill for the primary drivers of LEE. Wind speeds, rainfall rates, and precipitation totals show good agreement with observations. The occurrence of precipitation during power-producing wind speeds is also shown to exhibit fidelity. Hail events frequently occur during periods when wind turbines are rotating and are especially important to LEE in the SGP. The presence of hail is modeled with a mean proportion correct of 0.77 and an odds ratio of 4.55. Further research is needed to demonstrate sufficient model performance to be actionable for the wind energy industry, and there is evidence for positive model bias in cloud reflectivity.

Multi-step wind speed prediction by combining a WRF simulation and an error correction strategy

The accurate prediction of wind speed is important in satisfying the demands of power grids. However, the prediction of wind speed is challenging because of its randomness and volatility, especially in multi-step cases. This study proposes a novel multi-step wind speed prediction model combining a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulation and an error correction strategy. First, the WRF model is adopted to predict the wind speed. Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) is then employed to mine features of the predicted wind speed using the WRF model. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method is next used to extract the main components and remove illusive components. Using these principal components and prediction error as the training dataset, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) is applied for error correction. The WRF-VMD-PCA-LSTM model is thus developed for the multi-step prediction of wind speed. In a case study of a wind farm located in Sichuan Province, China, the proposed WRF-VMD-PCA-LSTM model outperforms models to which it is compared. The results reveal that the VMD-PCA method effectively extracts features hidden in the numerical WRF output. The proposed model effectively improves the accuracy of multi-step wind speed prediction.

Inversion Method of Regional Range-Dependent Surface Ducts with a Base Layer by Doppler Weather Radar Echoes Based on WRF Model

Ground clutter caused by variations of atmospheric refraction environment can occur when the weather radar is observing precipitation systems, especially in the presence of a tropospheric duct. Therefore, the acquisition of duct parameters is very important for evaluating radar performance and improving data quality. Based on the measured echo data of a Doppler weather radar located at Qingdao and the numerical simulation results of modified refractivity profiles from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, an inversion method for regional range-dependent tropospheric duct parameters over the sea area is proposed in this paper. Due to the higher antenna height of up to 169 m, the transmission environment is assumed to be a surface duct with a base layer for locating the antenna in the trapping layer. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Parabolic Equation (PE) methods were used to characterize the horizontal inhomogeneity of duct parameters and the propagation of electromagnetic waves in the tropospheric duct. In the inversion model, duct parameters extracted from WRF outputs were used as the initial values. Additionally, multithread parallel processing was adopted in order to reduce the inversion time based on the characteristics of the optimization algorithm. The overall variation tendencies of the WRF simulation results in the regional distribution of duct parameters were well consistent with the inversion results, but were relatively lower in terms of specific values. Due to the influence of precipitation targets on measured echo data, the inversed echo data had different agreements with the measurements in space, and the absolute error values were less than 5 dB in about 90% of the region of interest.