Weapons Exports Research Articles

The Stateof Exports of High-Tech Products in Russia

Aim. To determine the general state of Russia’s high-tech exports in the following areas: the relationship with other sectors of the economy and with the dynamics of GDP, positions on the world stage, relations with partner countries.Tasks. To achieve the aim of the study, the following tasks were set: to consider the dynamics of Russia’s export structure, to explore Russia’s position in the world in high-tech exports, to calculate the time lag of Russia’s lag behind the leading countries in high-tech exports, to analyze Russia’s role in the hightech market of the main partner countries, to explore the structure of Russia’shigh-tech exports in the context of commodity groups.Methods. To determine high-tech exports and imports, the methodology of the World Bank is used, according to which 9 industries (aerospace, computer and office equipment, electronics and telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, scientific instruments, electric machines, chemicals, nonelectric machines and weapons), including 79 commodity nomenclatures. At the same time, based on the availability of information, the values for the export of weapons are not taken into account.Results. The analysis of changes in high-tech exports has been carried out, which identifies periods of negative changes that coincide with periods characterized by adverse circumstances in the country and the world (pandemic, geopolitical and geo-economic tensions). When comparing graphs of high-tech exports and GDP, ambiguous results were obtained, taking into account the consideration of high-tech exports in calculating GDP. The time lags of the backlog have been calculated, according to which, in most cases, the values of the leading countries in high-tech exports are achievable, but the time lags themselves are enormous. The commodity spectrum of high-tech exports and imports of the Russia is considered, according to which Russia exports the entire commodity spectrum of the high-tech industry.Conclusions. The dominant role in Russia’s exports is still assigned to fuel and mining products with observed changes in terms of increasing the share of industrial products, including high-tech products, in which Russia, although an active participant, is nevertheless at a disadvantage in interactions with the main partner countries.

Key Aspects of India’s Arms Export Policy amid Military-Industrial Complex Reform

The study examines the key features and areas of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government’s policy aimed at boosting the export of weapons, military and special equipment (WMSE) within the broader strategy of reforming the Indian military-industrial complex (MIC). The long-term goal of the Indian government is to achieve “strategic autonomy” in the defence sector. In the short term, Indian arms exports serve as the driving force behind the “Make in India” and “Self-reliant India” programmes - pivotal components of Prime Minister Modi’s political agenda. The significant amplification factor for India’s export ambitions has been conditioned in part by the escalating border tensions with China since 2017. The export of WMSE is emerging as a crucial tool to strengthen India’s bilateral relations with countries in the Asia-Pacific region to counterbalance China. Nonetheless, to propel India into the group of the world’s leading arms exporters, as well as to gain full “strategic independence,” may be hard to achieve even in the long run. Despite systemic reforms in the military-industrial complex, efforts to engage private businesses and attract foreign capital, a number of challenges impede the growth of the defence industry and the export potential of the Indian military-industrial complex. These include the inadequate development of India’s manufacturing sector, dependency on foreign technologies, and insufficient funding for military-technical advancements. At the same time, the policy of supporting defence exports and reforming the MIC has been a stable trend in the strategy of the BJP government, playing a crucial role in the fulfillment of its short, medium and long term goals.

Программа «Официальная помощь в целях безопасности» Японии: цели и перспективы в условиях новой геополитической реальности

The article analyzes the new program of the Government of Japan – “Official Security Assistance” (OSA). Its key concepts were published in April-July 2023. The purpose of the implementation of the OSA program is to create a group of ‘like-minded countries’, which share foreign policy priorities of Japan, primarily regarding China and Russian Federation, bilateral relations of Japan with these countries have deteriorated in the second decade of the 21th century. Philippines, Malaysia, Bangladesh and Fiji were selected as OSA recipient countries in 2023. The author analyzes numerous national security-related international cooperation programs of Japan, and compares OSA with the similar program aimed at socio-economic support for developing countries – “Official Development Assistance” (ODA). The author also determines the level of participation of Southeast Asian and Oceania countries in the above-mentioned international programs of Japan. The analysis of the socio-political discourse shows that the implementation of the OSA program may be held at the same time with the revision of the basic documents restricting the export of weapons from Japan. Other negative outcome is connected with strengthening of global negative perceptions of Japan as a country that has departed from the former principles of pacifism. The negative consequences of the OSA for the Russian Federation include the potential expansion of the pro-Japanese bloc in terms of number of member state, as well as the decision to include Ukraine as OSA recipient country.

Atlantic solidarity of Germany: between the "restrictive policy" and the export of weapons to conflict zones

The article analyzes the approaches of the German government to limiting the export of weapons to conflict zones. The article correlates the supply of military weapons of Germany and the United States. The increase in the volume of supplies to Ukraine confirms the commitment of the German government to Atlantic solidarity with the United States and NATO. Political principles, export legislation, the National Security Strategy of Germany, the draft Law on Arms Export Control, which offer restrictive approaches to the supply of lethal weapons to conflict zones, are not being implemented in practice. They are declarative documents. The article analyzes the public and political discussion that has developed around the restrictions that should be introduced into the law on arms export control.

АДМІНІСТРАТИВНА ПРОЦЕДУРА ПРИ ЗДІЙСНЕННІ ЕКСПОРТУ ТА ІМПОРТУ ТОВАРІВ ВІЙСЬКОВОГО ТА ПОДВІЙНОГО ПРИЗНАЧЕННЯ В УКРАЇНІ

Purpose. The purpose of the article is to reveal the content and form a categorical definition ofthe administrative procedure for the export and import of military and dual-use goods in Ukrainebased on the existing and prospective legislation and the theory of administrative law. On thisbasis, form the latest concept of development of social relations in the analyzed sphere.Methods. A system of methods of scientific knowledge was used during the research. Using themethod of systematic analysis, various legal sources and empirical material were analyzed andnew generalizations and conclusions were formed on the basis of this. Special legal method –formal-dogmatic gave an opportunity to analyze the current legislation. The forecasting methodensured the development of legislation on administrative procedures for the import of military anddual-purpose goods in Ukraine.Results. It has been proven that administrative procedures are the bottom level of legal regulation,which in most cases are most often directly faced by private individuals and legal entities in orderto ensure their rights, freedoms and legitimate interests in public administration, in particularbusiness entities that export and import goods for military purposes and dual purpose. It wasconcluded that in today’s conditions, the administrative procedures for the export and importof military and dual-purpose goods are regulated by the norms of a special profile Law anda number of secondary legal acts approved by the Government of Ukraine.It has been found that the administrative procedure for the export of military and dual purposegoods from Ukraine, which operated before the full-scale invasion of Russian-terrorist troops intoUkraine on February 24, 2022, was characterized by the monopoly of certain influential groupsclose to the government, which were not interested in the development of weapons productionand other means of fighting, and focused their attention mainly on the sale of weapons thatUkraine inherited from a bygone era. Public finances for the development of domestic armamentswere insufficiently provided, and effective economic and financial methods of attracting privateinvestments were not introduced. As a result, when repelling the armed aggression of Russianterrorist forces, Ukrainian soldiers mainly use outdated weapons and armaments, or thoseobtained from foreign partners. The rapid import of weapons to Ukraine was established thanks tothe goodwill of the top political leadership of the USA, Great Britain, Lithuania, Poland, a dozenother democratic states, and the liberalization of the administrative procedure for importinggoods for military purposes and dual purposes into Ukraine under martial law conditions, asbusiness entities, as well as charitable foundations, which received permits for this from the StateExport Control Office under a simplified administrative procedure. The latest concept of the administrative procedure for the export, import of military and dualpurposegoods from Ukraine is proposed, taking into account the experience gained by the subjectsof importing weapons under martial law and the principles of the Law of Ukraine of February 17,2022 No. 2073-IX “On Administrative Procedure”. After all, the war for domestic manufacturersis a time to improve their products. In some positions, they have good initial positions that areobjectively developed and tested on the battlefield. As a result, after the victory, weapons releasedin Ukraine will be bought by foreign countries with pleasure. At the same time, the new civilsociety will no longer allow a few government officials to monopolize the arms export market.Accordingly, permits for the export of weapons manufactured by domestic manufacturers shouldfirst of all be granted (legalized) to entities that imported them during the war. Next, it is necessaryto carry out systemic reforms, both at the level of foundations and public tools and administrativeprocedures. Therefore, liberalization in this area should be carried out, but not at the expense ofweakening control over the export of weapons, but the admission to it of all entities that meet thespecified conditions, regardless of the form of ownership, both domestic and residents of the USA,Canada, Great Britain, countries EU members (with the exception of Hungary) and other partnerstates, which imported weapons to Ukraine in the face of a full-scale invasion.Conclusions. The administrative procedure for the export and import of goods for military anddual purpose in Ukraine is a procedure defined by law for consideration and resolution of casesregarding the issuance to business entities of permits to import into Ukraine and (or) export fromUkraine weapons, goods for military and dual purpose. The provisions of the Law of Ukraineof February 17, 2022 No. 2073-IX “On Administrative Procedure” do not directly apply to theapproval of the administrative procedure for the export, import of goods for military use and dualpurpose, however, the categorical apparatus and principles defined in it must be used in a specialregulatory and legal high-level act - the new version of the Law of Ukraine “On State Control ofInternational Transfers of Military and Dual-Use Goods”, or, more appropriately, in the new draftof the Law of Ukraine “On Export, Import of Weapons, Military and Dual-Use Goods”.

ВЗАИМООТНОШЕНИЯ ФРГ СО СТРАНАМИ ЛАТИНСКОЙ АМЕРИКИ: ПОЛИТИКО-ВОЕННЫЕ АСПЕКТЫ

The article analyses the state of German bilateral relations with South America’ states in defense and security field. The decline in the dialogue between Germany and Latin America’ countries during the COVID-19 pandemic turned out to be more significant than in other regional areas . The key reason is the difficulties in strengthening German strategic positions on the continent in the second half of the 2010. The paper stresses the functional and geographical narrowness of German political and diplomatic opportunities. In the military sphere the cooperation was mainly reduced to the export of weapons produced in Germany. In its attempts to create strategic positions in South America official Berlin has traditionally focused on strengthening relations with Brazil. The factor of non-diversification of Germany’s regional contacts has been fully manifested in the situation of stagnation and degradation of German-Brazilian relations in the second half of the 2010-s. The reasons of it are not only the specificities of president J. Bolsonaro`s foreign policy, but also the fact that transition to the declared new levels of cooperation (strategic partnership since 2008, the launch of interstate consultations format in 2015) was not supported by a corresponding increase of the volumes of practical cooperation in the field of security and defense. In this context the author focuses on relaunching German-Brazilian bilateral relations as well as the FRG attempts to make dialogue with Argentine, Chile and Mexico more active. At the same time Berlin tries to increase efforts for ensuring peace in Columbia and for settlement of the situation around Venezuela. Failures in creating its own vaccine against COVID-19 did not allow Germany to use a potential «window of opportunity» in strengthening its strategic positions in Latin America.

CONSIDERATIONS ON THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE WARSAW TREATY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL DEFENSE INDUSTRY

The historical moments of the end of the Second World War have generated a very complex European security environment on the international geopolitical scene. The Cold War had begun, the Iron Curtain Restrictions System had been established, and in 1949 the Washington Treaty was signed, forming the North Atlantic Alliance (NATO), a military system with the mission of ensuring security on the European continent. In 1955, at the initiative of the USSR, the European communist states concluded the Warsaw Pact, officially called the Warsaw Pact or the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance. It was, in fact, also a military alliance formed in response to the North Atlantic Alliance, out of a desire to defend against possible threats or attacks from the NATO system. This article is a study of this period, in which we will give an important place to the analysis of the implications of the Warsaw Pact in the development of the national economic environment, especially of the national defense industry. Despite the unprecedented achievements in the production and export of weapons and ammunition systems, the stability of the Eastern European security environment has been severely affected by the pursuit of undemocratic strategies by Russian state actors, expressed through threats and actions of energy blackmail, intensification of cross-border tensions, attempts to strain relations between states, maintain border conflicts (even between treaty states), as well as annexation of territories using armed force and the strategy of persistent conflict. Such aspects have intensified after the events of the early 1990s, following the abolition of the Warsaw Pact and the dissolution of the Soviet Empire.

Перспективные направления экспорта органической продукции АПК Уральского региона

Abstract. The purpose is the analysis of the current state and prospects for expanding the geography and nomenclature of organic exports from the Ural-Siberian region. Methods. Commodity and country analysis of exports of agro-industrial products from Russia over the past few years based on data from the Federal Customs Service of Russia. Evaluation of data on the dynamics of income from the export of agricultural products from Russia in comparison with income from the export of weapons and other non-primary goods. Assessment of the planned prospects for a multiple increase in export revenue for many commodity items until 2030. A grouping was made by the main importing countries of agricultural products from Russia, where China, Turkey and Kazakhstan are in the top three, and the Ural region, where the TOP 3 importers look different: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and China. The grouping of the main export products in the agro-industrial sector was also carried out, where the Urals nomenclature of export agricultural products differs markedly from the all-Russian one. There has been a significant increase in the share of organic products in the global food market. The data of the Research Institute of Organic Agriculture (FiBL) on organic certification of agricultural land in the world are presented. The authors analyze the rapid growth of the organic products market in China and its features in the regulatory regulation of organic food production. The role of agro-industrial exports for the implementation of national development projects of the Russian Federation until 2030 is revealed. The scientific novelty of the work lies in the analysis of the rapid growth of the market for organic products outside the traditional area of their consumption in the West at the expense of developing economies in Asia (primarily China) and the features and differences in the regulatory regulation of organic food production in China, compared with the European Union and the United States. The role of agro-industrial exports in solving the broader tasks of implementing national development projects of the Russian Federation until 2030 is also revealed. The practical results of the work are the substantiation of the thesis that the development of new export directions and modern logistics technologies will allow exporters of organic agricultural products in the Ural region to significantly increase the volume and profitability of exports. The article substantiates the need for exporters of the Ural region to use the Transcaspian route of the International Transport Corridor “North – South” and logistics technologies of “agroexpress” and container trains to gain competitive advantages over suppliers of the South of Russia and the Far East, located closer to ports and border crossings.

Impact of Technological Innovation, Research and Development on the Defense Economy - Iran Country

The Purpose. This research is to investigate the relationship between the variables of technological innovation, research and development costs, economic growth, sales and export of weapons and military costs in Iran for the years 2000 to 2017. Design/Methodology/Approach. In this study, we examine using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method to explore the estimating the impacts of technological innovation, research and development costs, economic growth, sales and export on military costs. Findings/Implications. The results of this study showed that the impact of technological innovation and research and development costs on military costs is negative in short-term and long-term. Although the effect that these two variables have on military spending in the short-term is very close, in long-term the effect that research and development costs have on military spending is far greater and more significant. Also, the impact of economic growth on Iran’s defense economy is much less than the variables of technological innovation and research and development costs. So that this effect will be less in long-term. But, the amount of arms sales and exports in the short-term has a positive effect on defense spending, but in long-term it becomes negative and increase in arms sales and exports can help Iran’s defense economy. Originality. The countries defense economy can always have positive effects on military and civilian research and development, scientific innovation and technological progress, in this condition that the country’s macroeconomics can spend military spending on research and development and support innovation and inventions. Eventually adopt arrangements that use the innovations of the defense industry in the civilian sector, which will lead to economic growth. This is the experience of many developed countries that have been able to use the technological advances and innovations of the military sector in the civilian sectors as well, and to cause the economic progress and development of their country.

SHAPING OF MILITARY-TECHNICAL COOPERATION STATE POLICY: INTERNATIONAL AND STATE LEGAL ASPECTS

The article examines the international and legal aspects of the shaping and implementation of state policy in the field of military-technical cooperation, particularly in the context of arms and military equipment exports. The urgency of the study of this issue is due to the increasing scale of weapons’ trade and the number of participants in economic relations in the world arms market. Recently, there has been an increase in demand for weapons and ammunition due to rising tensions in international relations and the concentration of a significant number of states in their efforts to gain a much greater role in the world order. Increased competition in the arms market, the willingness of individual states to strengthen military power under any circumstances and the inconsistency of export control systems that exist in different states, have led to an intensification of the activities of unscrupulous arms exporters. As a result, the number of arms sales operations that provide the basis for armed conflict has increased. In this regard, the international community has focused on strengthening controls on the movement of weapons. As for today, the most effective regulatory system for controlling the transfer of weapons has been established within the European Union. Its effectiveness is determined by the binding nature of the treaties for the EU member states. International treaties, in particular the International Arms Trade Treaty, contain recommendations for countries around the world on the rules of conduct in the field of arms trade and do not specify strict measures to control arms exports. In this regard, the countries of the world use their own approaches to establishing rules for the export of weapons, which creates the conditions for the existence of different standards of export control. In these circumstances, there is a significant threat to increase the scale of the activities of unscrupulous arms exporters. Given the imperfection of the international legal regulation of arms exports, the urgency of the efforts of arms exporting states to harmonize their national legislation with international treaties, which define the rules of commercial entities in the arms market. Accordingly, a transparent and clear state policy in the field of arms trade should be considered one of the most important factors in the successful participation of the state in international relations.

Japan’s new arms export policies: strategic aspirations and domestic constraints

ABSTRACT This article examines the significance of the changes in Japan’s arms export policy following Prime Minister Abe Shinzō’s return to power in 2012—a topic which has so far received insufficient scholarly attention. Established in the 1960s and 1970s, Japan’s ‘virtual’ ban on arms exports was an expression of the country’s postwar anti-militarism. Yet, in keeping with Japan’s increasingly active role in security affairs, Abe lifted the ban on weapons exports in 2014. Within the Ministry of Defense, a new agency was installed to oversee the arms industry and to promote military-related research and weapons transfers. We show that the Abe administration conceives of arms exports and related cooperation as an integral part of its national security strategy. Tokyo not only hopes to improve the competitiveness of its own defence industry, but also seeks to cement existing and new security partnerships while contributing to regional capacity building as a hedge against a rising China. The actual ramifications of this policy change are far from clear yet, however. A major constraint for policymaking is the reluctance of the defence sector to embrace arms export due to the associated business risks including the fear of tarnishing their corporate image.

The Persistence of Weapons: Global Evidence

This article investigates persistence (or hysteresis) in weapons using a panel of 163 countries for the period 2010‐15. The following are some main findings: (1) compared to countries that are landlocked, persistence in heavy weapons is more apparent in nations that are open to the sea; (2) relative to the Middle East and North Africa, heavy weapons are more persistent in the East Asia and the Pacific countries. This tendency is consistent with “weapons imports;” (3) evidence of persistence is not very apparent in “weapons imports” with the exception of the fact that it is higher in low‐income countries, compared to their high‐income counterparts. Hence, there is less hysteresis in weapons exports when compared with heavy weapons exports; and (4) the determinants of persistence employed in the conditioning information set are contingent on fundamental characteristics and panels. Policy implications are discussed.Related ArticlesBeal, Amanda L., and Leah Graham. 2014. “Foundations for Change: Rule of Law, Development, and Democratization.” Politics & Policy 42 (3): 311‐345. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12077Fails, Matthew D. 2014. “Leader Turnover, Volatility, and Political Risk.” Politics & Policy 42 (3): 369‐399. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12078Jakubow, Alexander. 2014. “State Intervention and Life Satisfaction Reconsidered: The Role of Governance Quality and Resource Misallocation.” Politics & Policy 42 (1): 3‐36. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12057Peev, Evgeni, and Dennis C. Mueller. 2013. “Democracy, Economic Freedom and Growth in Transition Economies.” Kyklos 65 (3): 371‐407. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-6435.2012.00543.x/abstractSiddiqui, Danish A., and Qazi M. Ahmed. 2013. “The Effect of Institutions on Economic Growth: A Global Analysis Based on GMM Dynamic Panel Estimation.” Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 24: 18‐33. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X12000902

Individual Criminal Liability for Arms Exports under the ICC Statute

Abstract Cases against corporate managers for their involvement in international crimes are rare. Still, legal precedent from the Nuremberg trials and more recent cases in national jurisdictions shows that corporate officers of arms manufacturing companies may be liable under international criminal law (ICL) when exported arms are used for the commission of war crimes. This article examines the circumstances under which corporate officers responsible for weapons exports can be criminally liable as accomplices to war crimes under Article 25(3)(c) of the Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC). To corroborate our analysis, we use the case study of European arms exports to members of the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen. There is evidence that this coalition has been committing war crimes in Yemen since 2015. Despite factual difficulties and legal complexities such as the mens rea standard of Article 25(3)(c) ICC Statute, we argue that corporate officers involved in arms exports may be individually liable, depending on their contribution to the commission of war crimes; their knowledge and awareness of the consequences of the provision of arms due to the abundance of information in the public domain; and the international standards for corporate human rights due diligence that apply to their specific business activities.

Choice of the order of the regression model for forecasting of random non-stationary economic processes

The object of research is heteroskedastic processes that affect the production of military goods of exporting countries. Today, armed conflicts are the most significant factor affecting the volume of production and export of weapons, since it assumes that the parties have the necessary quantity of weapons and is, in a sense, a stochastic process. The work is devoted to forecasting stochastic effects on the production processes of military goods of exporting countries. As an example, an economic system with stochastic effects and bottleneck problems in production units is considered. The model of the output process is presented as a random process with slow non-stationarity (heteroscedastic process). The methods for predicting non-stationary random processes are used. The problem of choosing and substantiating a mathematical model for predicting a heteroskedastic process is investigated, and considered. It is proved that the most capable short-term forecasting method is the Pade approximation method. It is shown that the Pade method, in fact, is a method of approximation by analytical (finely rational) functions, therefore it can be interpreted as a method of constructing a model of autoregression and moving average (ARIMA). Modifications of the ARIMA model, such as a model of autoregression and integrated moving average or autoregression and fractal integrated moving average, are considered. A modified method is developed for choosing the order of the autoregressive model according to the Akaike information criterion and beyond the Bayesian information criterion. The model problems and examples of experimental dependencies are analyzed. An effective technique is proposed for choosing the order of regression models used in the practical forecasting of stochastic processes, based on the canonical layouts of a random function. To partition the distribution function into non-equidistant intervals with constant flow intensities, an economic recurrence algorithm is used. The calculation results can be used to optimally select the order of the regression model, which approximates the real production process in the form of a time series with random external influences.

The Persistence of Weapons: Global Evidence

This study investigates persistence (or hysteresis) in weapons using a panel of 163 countries for the period 2010 to 2015. The following are some main findings. (i) Compared to countries that are landlocked, persistence in heavy weapons is more apparent in nations that are open to the sea. (ii) Relative to the Middle East & North Africa (MENA), heavy weapons is more persistent in the East Asia and the Pacific countries. This tendency is consistent with “weapons imports”. (vi) Evidence of persistence is not very apparent in “weapons imports” with the exception of the fact that it is higher in low income countries, compared to their high income counterparts. Hence, there is less hysteresis in weapons exports when compared with heavy weapons when weapons exports. (v) The determinants of persistence employed in the conditioning information set are contingent on fundamental characteristics and panels. Policy implications are discussed.

The Peacetime Right of Approach and Visit and Effective Security Council Sanctions Enforcement at Sea

UN Security Council sanctions against North Korea restrict the import or export of weapons and a broad array of other products, including coal and oil. North Korea has resorted to a variety of deceptive shipping practices to avoid those sanctions. So far, the Security Council has declined to authorize maritime patrol vessels to board foreign vessels on the high seas to verify their compliance with the sanctions. This article suggests that the Council should consider adding an authorization for the patrol forces to conduct a limited of in its future resolutions. The Right of Approach would be conducted in accordance with Article 110 of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea,

Финансовые санкции: влияние на потоки капитала и экономический рост РФ

The article includes review of evolution of the Western nations' sanctions regime, the mechanisms of its impact on the Russian economy and the quantitative estimates of the effect on GDP. The sanctions' impact channel linked to their negative influence on gross and net capital inflow to Russia is studied. It emerges that this influence softened in 2016-2017 thanks to lower uncertainty and the economy's adaptation to sanctions, but increased again in 2018 on the background of the constant flow of new sanction threats from the USA. The negative impact of sanctions on the Russian GDP in 2014-2017 was substantially milder than that of lower oil prices and tended to decrease as the time passed. However, in 2018, this impact similarly increased as compared to 2016-2017. The abatement of the USA sanctions' pressure in early 2019 may lead to a smaller sanctions' growth effect; however, the risks of further widening of restrictive measures (which, in particular, could target energy projects of the Russian companies, as well as Russia's weapons exports), as the USA 2020 elections are approaching, remain substantial.

New directions in Japan's security: non-US centric evolution, introduction to a special issue

ABSTRACTDuring the cold war the United States was overwhelmingly central in Japan's security policy. Japan hosted US bases and the Self-Defense Forces held joint exercises with the US military, even while shunning contacts with other militaries. Japan essentially refused even to discuss security with its neighbors. Special exceptions were made for the United States in otherwise sweeping policies, such as the exception for the United States in Tokyo's ban on weapons exports and co-development. Since the end of the cold war, Japan's security policy has undergone a little noticed transformation: it has steadily moved away from being centered on the United States as its sole security partner. Tokyo has initiated bilateral security dialogues with its Asian neighbors and assumed a leadership role in promoting regional multilateral security cooperation as a supplement to the US alliance. Japan has begun building bilateral security partnerships with a range of countries and actors, from Australia and India to the European Union. Paradoxically these changes have occurred even as the US–Japan alliance has strengthened. The articles in this special issue examine these new security ties with states and multilateral organizations, and other changes in policy that have made the United States less ‘special,’ such as by allowing arms exports to other actors.

Reflections on BDS

Reflections on BDS

ОСОБЕННОСТИ ВНЕШНЕЙ ПОЛИТИКИ ФРГ НА БЛИЖНЕМ ВОСТОКЕ И В СЕВЕРНОЙ АФРИКЕ

The article is devoted to an analysis of the main factors, determining German policy in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). More active German military-technical engagement in the settlement of the crises in the region on the modern stage determines relevance of this article’s topic. Based on historical method, author considers the development of German foreign policy in the Arab world, examining the main aspects of the colonial policy of German empire on the threshold of the First and Second World Wars, as well as the prerequisites of the intensification of German-Arabic contacts in the period of Cold War. In accordance with the principals of system analysis Germany’s Middle East policy was investigated in complex, given geopolitical, economic and military aspects. Special emphasis is put on the problem of transformation of Middle East regional order as a factor of political instability. Notwithstanding the rea-sonableness of Germany’s standing for stable and predictable regional order, these goals were challenged owing to the fact that Germany benefits from the regional disorder in terms of increase of its influence. In reliance on the German goals in the Middle East and North Africa, mentioned in the Coalition Agreement of 2013, the author points out the priority of crisis management. At the same time the ethno-confessional conflict potential of the region meets the interests of German military-industrial complex. Increase of Germany’s export of weapons to the Arab states as well as neglecting the restrictions on export go to prove that Germany backs the armaments race in the Middle East. In this regard, German policy is characterized by “double standards” and inconsistency. These specifics can be explained by the ongoing process of Middle East policy shift and searching for new priorities on a long-term horizon. In the conclusion, the author analyzes the specifics and prospects of German policy in MENA region.