Wealth Fluctuations Research Articles

Is religion an inferior good? Evidence from fluctuations in housing wealth

An increase in local house prices in the US is associated with a decrease in the time homeowners spend on religious activities compared to renters. Notably, this effect is not observed in volunteering and civic activities. The decline in religious activities is more pronounced for credit-constrained households. The main result is attributed to a wealth effect, whereby activities that have an inferior-good component decline with housing wealth, and to a substitution effect whereby the attractiveness of activities linked to the residential asset increases during housing booms.

Multi-objective portfolio selection considering expected and total utility

To address the challenge of risk minimization associated with investors’ irrational investment decisions in the face of wealth fluctuations, this article integrates prospect theory and disappointment theory into the framework of multi-objective portfolio selection. By concurrently incorporating prospect theory and disappointment theory, this conceptual framework not only considers emotional factors but also offers a comprehensive depiction of individuals’ decision-making processes amidst uncertainty. The proposed portfolio selection model aims to balance return and risk by maximizing both expected and total utility. The effectiveness of the proposed model is validated through comparisons with three other methods.

Optimal Defined Contribution Pension Management with Jump Diffusions and Common Shock Dependence

This work deals with an optimal asset allocation problem for a defined contribution (DC) pension plan during its accumulation phase. The contribution rate is assumed to be proportional to the individual’s salary. The salary follows a Heston stochastic volatility model with jumps, and there exists common shock dependence between the salary and the volatility. Since the time horizon of pension management is quite long, the influence of inflation is considered in the given context. The aim of the pension plan described in this paper is to reduce fluctuations in terminal wealth by investing in the bond and the stock. Through the dynamic programming principle, the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation is shown. The explicit expression of the investment decision is derived by solving the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation. In the last part, a numerical analysis is shown to illustrate the impacts of different parameters on the optimal investment policy.

Multiple Imputation with Massive Data: An Application to the Panel Study of Income Dynamics.

Multiple imputation (MI) is a popular and well-established method for handling missing data in multivariate data sets, but its practicality for use in massive and complex data sets has been questioned. One such data set is the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), a longstanding and extensive survey of household income and wealth in the United States. Missing data for this survey are currently handled using traditional hot deck methods because of the simple implementation; however, the univariate hot deck results in large random wealth fluctuations. MI is effective but faced with operational challenges. We use a sequential regression/chained-equation approach, using the software IVEware, to multiply impute cross-sectional wealth data in the 2013 PSID, and compare analyses of the resulting imputed data with those from the current hot deck approach. Practical difficulties, such as non-normally distributed variables, skip patterns, categorical variables with many levels, and multicollinearity, are described together with our approaches to overcoming them. We evaluate the imputation quality and validity with internal diagnostics and external benchmarking data. MI produces improvements over the existing hot deck approach by helping preserve correlation structures, such as the associations between PSID wealth components and the relationships between the household net worth and sociodemographic factors, and facilitates completed data analyses with general purposes. MI incorporates highly predictive covariates into imputation models and increases efficiency. We recommend the practical implementation of MI and expect greater gains when the fraction of missing information is large.

Wealth Fluctuations and Risk Preferences: Evidence from U.S. Investor Portfolios

Using data on the portfolio holdings and income of millions of U.S. retirement investors, I find that positive and persistent shocks to income lead to a significant increase in the equity share of investor portfolios, while increases in financial wealth due to realized returns lead to a small decline in the equity share. In a standard homothetic life-cycle model with human capital and constant risk aversion, the portfolio responses to these two wealth shocks should be of equal magnitude and opposite sign. The positive net effect in the data is evidence for risk aversion that decreases in total wealth. I estimate a structural life-cycle consumption and portfolio choice model that accounts for inertia in portfolio rebalancing and matches the reduced-form estimates with a significant degree of non-homotheticity in risk preferences, such that a 10% permanent income growth leads to an average decrease in risk aversion by 1.7%. Decreasing relative risk aversion preferences concentrate equity in the hands of the wealthy and double the share of wealth at the top of the wealth distribution.

Housing Choice as a Function of Risks Confronting Low-income Households

The design of housing solutions for low-income populations has been one of the most pressing policy concerns in developing countries like India. In this work, we explore the effect of risks confronting low-income households—unemployment, health and mortality—on their choice of housing arrangements. We use simulations to study the evolution of long-term wealth of a stylised low-income household faced with these risks and find that, on average, rental housing significantly reduces the risk of undesirable wealth fluctuations over time. From a policy perspective, this means greater focus and incentives for the development of low-income rental markets using strategies such as provision of rental vouchers, rent-to-own models or long-term leases, in addition to the traditional ownership-based housing strategies. The development of housing solutions encompassing a range of rental and ownership models will be critical to ensuring the availability of safe and affordable housing for all urban residents. JEL Codes: C63, O18

Moody and Dissatisfied: A Possible Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles

Recent microeconomic evidence suggests that risk aversion is largely determined by the changes in the state of the economy and mostly insensitive to the fluctuations in idiosyncratic wealth. I propose a consumption-based asset pricing model that is consistent with this evidence and capable of explaining various stylized facts about the U.S. stock market. In the model, agents have a power-utility type instantaneous utility function whose curvature explicitly depends on a stationary macroeconomic state variable. The model can produce a high equity risk premium with a low, stable and wealth-insensitive relative risk aversion if the utility curvature is mildly countercyclical (i.e., if the agents are mildly moody) and consumption is sufficiently smaller than a predetermined benchmark (i.e., if the agents are sufficiently dissatisfied) at the steady state. It also gives a low and stable risk-free rate, procyclical price-dividend ratio, countercylical risk premium and price of risk, return predictability, an upward sloping real yield curve and a downward sloping equity term structure.

Relative Housing Wealth and Labor Market Behavior

This paper analyzes how relative housing wealth affects labor supply. Using China's great housing boom as a natural experiment, we examine this empirical question and find that an appreciation in relative housing wealth significantly reduces the average working hours. We also find that this reduction is mainly driven by female homeowners. Our results suggest that the effect of relative housing wealth varies across education backgrounds, marital status and sectors of employment, and it is more pronounced among female homeowners who are under-educated, married and self-employed. A set of robustness checks corroborate the validity of our identification strategies and test the sensitivity of the results. In addition to explaining the empirical link between relative housing wealth and labor supply, this study improves our understanding of people's economic behavior caused by wealth fluctuations.

Overconfidence, Differences in Beliefs and The Equity Premium Term Structure

Empirical studies suggest that the equity premium term structure is downward sloping. By deriving a closed form dividend strips pricing formula in a heterogeneous-agent economy, we show that when some investors are over-pessimistic, typically in a bear market: 1) short-maturity dividend strips have higher risk premium than the aggregate stock market; 2) the volatility term structure of dividend strip prices is downward sloping. These results imply that the slope of equity premium term structure is pro-cyclical. We show that belief dispersion and overconfidence can explain the equity premium term structure and determine the term structure of quantity and price of risks. Intuitively the difference in beliefs towards the short run economic growth allows market shocks to produce wealth distribution fluctuation among pessimists and optimists, increasing short run discount rate and short term risk premium. Meanwhile rational market participants can arbitrage away the pricing errors induced by over-pessimistic investors over time and reduce expected fluctuations in individual wealth gradually, and hence long-term dividend strips have lower volatilities and risk premia.

Ethnicity, Immigration, and Wealth Fluctuations in the United States

Wealth in the United States rose and fell precipitously during the first decade of this century for all major ethnic groups, but the fluctuations in Hispanic wealth were especially extreme. We show that household characteristics and location can account for the Hispanic experience during the boom but not the bust. We argue that the sudden collapse in credit availability to undocumented immigrants at the start of the recession led, through a contraction in demand for the homes of natural sellers in this market, to a loss in wealth far greater than could be predicted based on household characteristics and location alone.

Wealth Effects and Macroeconomic Dynamics Evidence from Indian Economy

The wealth effects on consumption are a subject of continuing interest to economists. The conventional wisdom states that fluctuations in household wealth have caused major fluctuations in economic activity. This study analyses the macroeconomic dynamics of wealth effects in India and examines the nexus between the changes in housing wealth, financial wealth, and consumer spending. Using the quarterly data for the period 2005:1–2016:1, I estimate vector autoregression models and vector error-correction models, relating consumption to income and wealth measures. I find a statistically significant and rather large effect of housing wealth upon household consumption. The results show that (i) wealth effects are statistically significant and comparatively substantial in magnitude (ii) housing wealth effects tend to be greater while stock market wealth effects are considerable (iii) private consumption responses to the shocks to housing market wealth are relatively stronger than to the shocks in stock market wealth. There is a bidirectional causality running from private consumption to the two wealth forms and vice versa. Overall, the private consumption expenditure response to the changes in different wealth forms is observed to be substantial and significant.

Wealth fluctuations and investment in risky assets: The UK micro evidence on households asset allocation

This paper is the first to examine whether UK households exhibit constant or time-varying relative risk aversion within a microdata panel framework. We analyse whether portfolio allocations in risky assets change in response to fluctuations in wealth. Our set of controls for background wealth is comprehensive, and include, as a novelty in this type of studies, pension wealth. The inference about the risk profile of British households depends upon the relevant measure of background wealth. We do not find support for decreasing relative risk aversion (DRRA). Constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) prevails for the case of liquid wealth, but for the broadest definitions —those including home equity and pensions— the evidence favours increasing relative risk aversion (IRRA).

Does relative risk aversion vary with wealth? Evidence from households׳ portfolio choice data

We test whether relative risk aversion varies with wealth using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics data in the U.S. Our analytical results indicate the following implications. For each household, there are two channels through which the risky share responds to wealth fluctuations, the income channel and the habit channel. Across households, there are heterogeneous responses through both the habit channel and the income channel. Finally, two potential misspecification problems on time-varying relative risk aversion arise when both heterogeneous responses through the habit channel and the responses through the income channel are ignored. Our main empirical findings are to show the importance of the income channel and the heterogeneous responses, and to provide strong evidence of relative risk aversion varying with wealth, after correcting two misspecification problems.

Poor Men with Money

Poverty and violence crisscross ethnographies of the African city. This is especially pronounced in anthropological research from South Africa, where considerable efforts are made to describe and document poverty and violence across segregated cityscapes. Correlations between poverty and vulnerability are often asserted in the literature: the “poorest of the poor” are presented repeatedly as the persons most susceptible to violence and harm. In this paper I aim to complicate how poverty and vulnerability are conventionally linked. Drawing from fieldwork on young African migrants’ informal work in Cape Town, I show how hazardous slight gains in prosperity can prove. Once the migrants’ entrepreneurial ventures took off, the youths were recast quickly as persons of suspicion and acceptable targeting. I present an episode in counterpoint of other migrants losing their property and means of livelihood. Countering expectations, these migrants’ descent into poverty’s inconspicuousness protected them during an outbreak of anti-immigrant violence. The ethnography shows poverty and vulnerability to be closely connected facets of urban life but more dynamically than assumed and not associable in predictable ways. I argue that anthropology’s disproportionately narrow focus on the most economically and socially disadvantaged members of society risks eclipsing small yet significant fluctuations in wealth and well-being among the urban poor as a whole. Such a politics understates their diversity.

Fluctuations in wealth and dental care use

Fluctuations in wealth and dental care use

Re-examining the impact of housing wealth and stock wealth on retail sales: Does persistence in wealth changes matter?

Case, Quigley and Shiller (2005, 2013) quantified stock versus housing wealth effects on quarterly state-level retail sales, which they interpret as an approximate measure of household consumption spending. We investigate the variation of these wealth effects with the persistence of each kind of wealth fluctuation in an estimated linear dynamic fixed-effects model, allowing for both cointegration and endogeneity. Retail sales respond most strongly to housing wealth fluctuations which persist for one to four years, whereas the response to stock wealth fluctuations is smaller and is concentrated on fluctuations with a persistence of either less than a year or more than four years. These differential persistence effects point to a need for a richer theoretical formulation in this area.

WEALTH EFFECTS AND MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS

AbstractThe effect of wealth on consumption is an issue of long‐standing interest to economists. Conventional wisdom suggests that fluctuations in household wealth have driven major swings in economic activity both in the United States and abroad. This paper considers the so‐called consumption wealth effects. There is an extensive existing literature on wealth effects that has yielded some insights. For example, research has documented the relationship between aggregate household wealth and aggregate consumption over time, and a large number of household‐level studies suggest that wealth effects are larger for households facing credit constraints. However, there are also many unresolved issues regarding the influence of household wealth on consumption. We review the most important of these issues and argue that there is a need for much more research in these areas as well as better data sources for conducting such analysis.

Nonlinear effects of asset prices on fiscal policy: Evidence from the UK, Italy and Spain

We test for nonlinear effects of asset prices on the fiscal policy of three major European economies (the UK, Italy and Spain). We model primary government spending and government revenue as time-varying transition probability Markovian processes (TVPMS). We find that while in Italy fiscal policy is substantially neutral vis-a-vis asset price movements, fiscal authorities in the UK and Spain seem to track the dynamics of wealth. In particular, revenue-based fiscal policy interventions in the UK are particularly effective in counteracting shocks in the asset markets induced by sharp wealth fluctuations. Similarly, in Spain, the spending-side of the fiscal policy plays a dominant role in stabilizing stock and housing markets.

Editors’ Introduction

Editors’ Introduction

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