The rock mass of coal seam floor plays a crucial role in blocking the uplift and runoff of the underlying confined water in the course of mining under water pressure. Accurately assessing its water resistance performance, which is influenced by numerous factors, is important for preventing accidents caused by inrushing water. This study focuses on a coal mine in the Ningwu coalfield in North China. We establish an evaluation system for the water resistance performance of coal seam floor rock mass, using indices including rock mass thickness, lithological combination characteristics, rock mass quality, structure complexity and bedding plane count. A variable weight–normal cloud (VW–NC) model is formulated to quantitatively evaluate the water resistance performance of the coal seam floor rock mass. Comparative analysis with actual mining conditions and other models reveals that the VW-NC model provides the most precise and accurate results. The study finds that the primary influencing factors on the water resistance performance are weak structural planes, including faults, joints, and bedding planes. The proportions of strong, relatively strong, relatively weak, and weak zones in research area are 20.41%, 59.88%, 12.38%, and 7.33%, respectively.