Weak State Research Articles

State Fragility and the Resurgence of Military Coups in West-Africa

State fragility and coups in Franco-phone West Africa constitute a worrisome political issue caused by weak leadership, instability, poverty, corruption, weak governance institutions, insurgency and terrorism, kidnapping and banditry, border porosity and high rates of military coup. The paper analysed the causes and consequences of military takeovers in West Africa and the role of regional organizations in curbing them. Secondary materials were used for data analysis. The paper concludes that the brazen-faced and audacious French imperialism in West Africa has contributed to the ongoing instability and insecurity in the subregion; creating a fertile ground for coup resurgence, which was driven by military leaders seeking to gain control and exploit the resources of the region for their own benefit. The paper thus suggests that as soon as the polity is stabilized, political power should be returned to the people in the affected States.

Surface buoyancy control of millennial-scale variations in the Atlantic meridional ocean circulation

Abstract. Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events are a pervasive feature of glacial climates. It is widely accepted that the associated changes in climate, which are most pronounced in the North Atlantic region, are caused by abrupt changes in the strength and/or northward extent of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), possibly originating from spontaneous transitions in the ocean–sea-ice–atmosphere system. Here we use an Earth system model that produces DO-like events to show that the climate conditions under which millennial-scale AMOC variations occur are controlled by the surface ocean buoyancy flux. In particular, we find that the present-day-like convection pattern with deep-water formation in the Labrador and Nordic seas becomes unstable when the buoyancy flux integrated over the northern North Atlantic turns from negative to positive. It is in the proximity of this point that the model produces transitions between different convection patterns associated with strong and weak AMOC states. The buoyancy flux depends on the surface freshwater and heat fluxes and on sea surface temperature through the temperature dependence of the thermal expansion coefficient of seawater. We find that larger ice sheets tend to stabilize convection by decreasing the net freshwater flux, while CO2-induced cooling decreases buoyancy loss and destabilizes convection. These results help to explain the conditions under which DO events appear and are a step towards an improved understanding of the mechanisms of abrupt climate changes.

Trends in Civil War Research on South Sudan (2013–2023): A Bibliometric Analysis

This study examines the evolution of civil war research focused on South Sudan from 2013 to 2023, employing bibliometric analysis to evaluate 120 articles from the Scopus database. The findings reveal key trends, including the thematic transition from exploring the origins and impacts of conflict during the wartime period (2013–2017) to addressing post-conflict recovery and reform following the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) in 2018. Frequently discussed topics include ethnicity, kleptocracy, and weak state structures during wartime, and reconciliation, sustainable peacebuilding, and social recovery in the post-conflict period. The study identifies significant contributions from prolific authors, geographical patterns in research output, and under-researched areas such as human rights and peacekeeping. By highlighting bibliometric trends and key thematic clusters, the article offers actionable insights for policymakers, scholars, and international stakeholders invested in conflict resolution and peace studies.

Coups and Terror in the Sahel

This study investigates the intricate relationship between coups, state fragility, and terrorism in the Sahel region, with a focus on Burkina Faso and Niger. The research contextualizes recent coup attempts and successful seizures of power in West and Central Africa since 2020 within the broader historical landscape of coups on the continent. Coups are increasingly linked to rising state fragility, which fuels the proliferation of terrorist activities, exacerbating instability throughout the Sahel, (Dahiru, 2024; ‘Conflict Watchlist 2023: The Sahel’, no date). Methodologically, this study adopts a multi-faceted approach, combining qualitative analysis of historical data with quantitative assessments of coup occurrences and terrorist incidents. It relies on diverse sources, including the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) and scholarly research, to discern patterns and dynamics over time. Theoretically, the study explores how the emergence of military juntas and the erosion of state stability precipitate the spread of terrorism in the region.. The paper will show the extent to which terrorist violence has ravaged local economies, displaced populations and disrupted service provision. The study also aims to explain the implications of increased terrorism for regional security, governance, and potential radicalization and recruitment trends in addition to informing policies and interventions aimed at mitigating the complex interplay of coups, state fragility, and terrorism in the Sahel.

Gendered Analysis of the Wave of Coups and Terrorism in the Sahel

The prevalence of coups and terrorism in the Sahel raises serious human security concerns due to their devastating impact on socio-economic stability, state fragility, democratisation, etc. The current wave of coups and terrorism opens up avenues for asking questions about the progress of democratisation in Africa, issues of human security, protection of human rights, and, more specifically, how the prevalence of violence affects women’s lives. Hence, it is imperative to interrogate the resultant impact that the prevalence of coups has on the protection of women’s rights in the region. Therefore, this paper examines the gendered implications of the prevalence of coups and terrorism in the Sahel region. Using Nigeria and Burkina Faso as case studies, it argues for a gendered understanding of the differential impact that the increasing rate of terrorism, military coups, and worsening state fragility have on women, as well as their corresponding effects. This is in face of the prolonged Boko Haram insurgency in North-eastern Nigeria that has led to massive loss of lives, intense political instability with over 300 schoolgirls having been kidnapped till date and the September 2022 military coup led by Captain Ibrahim Traore in Burkina Faso that suspended the constitution with no progress for democratisation in sight. The paper employs a qualitative methodology and a thematic analytical framework to interrogate the gendered implications of coups and terrorism on women. It finds that a gendered analysis of coups and terrorism in the Sahel enables relevant bodies to implement preventive or mitigating measures aimed at managing hostilities, safeguarding human security, and promoting gender equality.

Notes on the Characteristics of a New State of Crisis

The article observes the changes in the notions of crisis and their reflection on the understanding of contemporary art. Modern culture seems to develop in conditions of well-being, which is able to dampen the sense of crisis in the very essence of art, but not to overcome the grounds of crisis experience. Today, various observers position art as post-aesthetic, post-historical, post-autonomous. Does the upheaval in the awareness of this „after“ art play an essential role in its definition? The report addresses and addresses the grounds of this question without providing answers.

Hybrid 3D Convolutional–Transformer Model for Detecting Stereotypical Motor Movements in Autistic Children During Pre-Meltdown Crisis

Computer vision using deep learning algorithms has served numerous human activity identification applications, particularly those linked to safety and security. However, even though autistic children are frequently exposed to danger as a result of their activities, many computer vision experts have shown little interest in their safety. Several autistic children show severe challenging behaviors such as the Meltdown Crisis which is characterized by hostile behaviors and loss of control. This study aims to introduce a monitoring system capable of predicting the Meltdown Crisis condition early and alerting the children’s parents or caregivers before entering more difficult settings. For this endeavor, the suggested system was constructed using a combination of a pre-trained Vision Transformer (ViT) model (Swin-3D-b) and a Residual Network (ResNet) architecture to extract robust features from video sequences to extract and learn the spatial and temporal features of the Stereotyped Motor Movements (SMMs) made by autistic children at the beginning of the Meltdown Crisis state, which is referred to as the Pre-Meltdown Crisis state. The evaluation was conducted using the MeltdownCrisis dataset, which contains realistic scenarios of autistic children’s behaviors in the Pre-Meltdown Crisis state, with data from the Normal state serving as the negative class. Our proposed model achieved great classification accuracy, at 92%.

Distribution, Accumulation Characteristics, and Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in Vegetable Soils of Different Planting Years

To ascertain the influence of prolonged planting on the distribution and accumulation of heavy metals in protected vegetable soil, samples from typical vegetable planting areas in Shenyang were gathered to evaluate the distribution features of Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd, and Pb in such soil. The Hakanson index, heavy metal risk assessment standard, and secondary phase to primary ratio methods were employed to evaluate the ecological hazard of soil in the research area, while the human health risk model was utilized to evaluate the health of inhabitants. The findings indicated that：① The amount of heavy metals Zn, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Cd in the topsoil （0~20 cm） of protected vegetable land in the study region decreased successively, and the content of heavy metals in the topsoil increased with the extension of planting years, of which Cd, Zn, and Cu increased most obviously, with maximum increases of 219%, 189%, and 134%, respectively. ② Heavy metals Zn, Cr, Cu, Ni, and Pb were mainly in the residual state, whereas Cd was mainly in the weak acidic state, with a maximum proportion of 53%. ③ The potential ecological risk index of Cd in the topsoil of the study area was 95.77, showing a medium ecological risk； however, the comprehensive potential ecological risk of the six heavy metals was not high. ④ The HI values of the six heavy metals in the study area were less than 1 and the risk of non-carcinogenesis was negligible； however, the carcinogenic risk of heavy metals in some sampling sites should not be ignored.

Russia’s state capture strategy in Africa, from Wagner to the Africa corps

ABSTRACT While much of the literature on state capture focuses on corrupt business networks, the concept can also elucidate how powerful armed actors can co-opt government officials and institutions to influence policymaking. This article argues that Russia leveraged the activities of the Wager Group in Africa to pursue a form of state capture. Drawing on expert interviews and open-source intelligence, it presents evidence from the Central African Republic, Sudan, Libya, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad, and demonstrates how Wagner and Russia acquired a measure of influence over several embattled strongmen who proved willing to serve the Kremlin’s interests and partake in corrupt business deals. Even after Wagner’s ill-fated 2023 mutiny and its subsequent restructuring into the Africa Corps under the Russian Ministry of Defense, state capture has continued to define the Kremlin’s ambitions in Africa. Although this strategy has yielded mixed results for Russia, it has worsened the political and economic outlooks of several fragile states, creating new challenges to international security.

Promoting Equitable Human and Planetary Health Co-Benefits: An Opportunity for U.S. Leadership

Climate change is a public health emergency, and many communities have called on policymakers to address its far-reaching consequences on human and planetary health. As research shows, the hierarchical ordering of people and other living beings as more or less worthy of protection has contributed to environmental degradation and the current state of the climate crisis, which impact everyone regardless of hierarchical position. Several climate solutions have health co-benefits that can promote collective well-being when designed and implemented equitably. The United States has an opportunity to become a global leader by advancing transformative policies that harness the potential of these human-and-planet co-benefit solutions. Active (human-powered) transportation and use of green spaces represent two co-benefit solutions that show promise for equitably addressing public and planetary health. Policymakers are encouraged to work alongside communities to identify, develop, and implement co-benefit solutions that meet the collective needs of local populations while benefiting public and planetary health more broadly.

Does Decentralization Decrease State Fragility? Evidence from Developing Countries

Does Decentralization Decrease State Fragility? Evidence from Developing Countries

Navigating sociopolitical waters: exploring the influence of key factors on global supply base concentration

PurposeVarious economic, strategic and sociopolitical factors drive the decisions related to the location of global supply chain partners. Yet, research on how sociopolitical factors affect these decisions is not that prevalent. We contribute to this line of research by evaluating the changes in global supply base concentration accounted for by three key sociopolitical factors – populism, state fragility and political constraints – that magnify or attenuate the effects of institutional risks, uncertainties and volatility.Design/methodology/approachApart from hypothesizing the negative effects of populism and state fragility, political constraints are conjectured to significantly attenuate these negative effects. The proposed hypotheses were motivated using the tenets of institutional economics theory and tested using a comprehensive dataset compiled from six widely used secondary data sources. The panel data spanning 2003–2018 focused on a sample of global US-listed companies with worldwide suppliers.FindingsOur results supported three of the four hypotheses. Specifically, the direct effects of populism and state fragility were found to be significant, suggesting that they reduced the number of suppliers in the country. However, political constraints did not moderate the effect of populism on global supply base concentration, while they negatively moderated the effect of the state fragility index. This result showcases the overpowering effect of populism on a country’s market environment.Originality/valueSupply chain scholars resoundingly acknowledge the need for more research on the effect of broader sociopolitical factors on global supply chain management. Responding to this call, we evaluate the direct and contingent effects of populism, state fragility and political constraints on global supply base concentration. Our choice of these factors was based on their representation of most of the critical institutional environments prevalent in various countries. One surprising result we found was that populism was found to be pervasive even in countries with strong checks and balances, suggesting its paramount importance to practicing management. Overall, by unraveling the interesting effects of these multidimensional sociopolitical factors, our study makes a valuable contribution to not only theory but also practice.

Неореалізм у літературі ХХ століття: проблеми термінологічного визначення та рецепції в Україні

The stylistic trend of neorealism developed in many countries throughout the 20th century – from the era of decadence to the postmodern period. This development is related to new modernist trends and ideas, not just classical realism. The purpose of the study: to introduce the concept of "neorealism" into a wider context. The theoretical basis is the historical-literary analysis and comparative comparison (comparative-typological and receptological methods). The influence of realist traditions is undeniable in the early works of the avant-garde James Joyce and even in the search for a new manner of prose writing – "stream of consciousness" – in "Ulysses". Vivid examples of the complex interaction of the realistic tradition of the 19th century and modern ideas are the works of Luigi Pirandello, Thomas Mann, and other modernists. The new philosophical foundation of realism in the 20th century is modern "philosophy of life" and existentialist philosophy. Italian neorealism as an independent stylistic trend began to emerge already in the period of the approach of the Second World War and immediately after it, when it received recognition in criticism. Italian criticism gave this current the name "neorealism", borrowing from philosophy and considering the bygone era of realism. In the middle of the 20th century the development of neorealism is conditioned by the crisis state of culture in post-totalitarian societies, primarily by the need to overcome totalitarian myths and stereotypes of the mass consciousness, caused by the dominance of propaganda and political or aesthetic dogmatism. Neorealist art is connected with the development of mass culture. However, true neorealist art was not able to overcome totalitarian prejudices and stereotypes everywhere. The revival of imperial totalitarian ideology in modern Russia is connected with the "dying" of neorealism in the 1950s and 1980s. In the literature of the former USSR, neorealism opposed socialist realism. Officially declared in the totalitarian world under the control of the Soviet Union, the trend of social realism purely formally declared the principles of realistic art, in particular "the true reflection of life", but had nothing to do with neorealism, except for the external entourage and declarations.

The cyclic vector of realization of cultural memory in the novel "Chagin" by Evgeny Vodolazkin

Evgeny Vodolazkin has firmly established himself in the latest Russian prose as a master of the realization of artistic intrigue. His novels are a vivid confirmation of this. The writer, in addition to forming a very dense intriguing plot, adding a figurative series, manifesting a point of view, deliberately uses the technique of artistic collision, but in an admittedly realistic way. For Evgeny Vodolazkin, the course of novel events is not only a literal combination of situational episodes, it is also a carefully thought-out dialogue with the reader. The subject of the research in the article is the deciphering of the theme of memory on the example of E.G. Vodolazkin's novel "Chagin". The object of study correlates with the main issue of the text, which builds a narrative, a figurative series, a genre structure. The purpose of the work is a parametric analysis of the manifestation of cultural memory in the specified text. The assessment of the imaginative thinking of the main character, Isidor Chagin, is not excluded in the study, since memory cannot be considered separately from the feeling and perception of reality by the character. The methodological basis of the work is focused on the comparative principles of text evaluation, conceptual verification of the work, taking into account the systematization of receptive connotations. In the novel "Chagin", the main character is going through a crisis state – he cannot forget what he has read, seen, and experienced. Memory is syncretically soldered to the existence of the hero as such, it ontologically sets the metaphysics of the character's existence. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the fact that the novel has not yet been practically studied within the framework of this category, there is no proper assessment of the topic in the critical-analytical type mode. The materials can be useful practically in verifying the style, manner of writing, and artistic thinking of Evgeny Vodolazkin. The conclusions of the work are focused on the fact that memory in the novel "Chagin" is a formula of irreversibility. But the actions and deeds of the hero are in many ways a demonstration of multiplicity. Although Vodolazkin's writing style and poetics do not gravitate towards postmodernism, the influence of modern trends is clearly evident in this work. The plot of the novel is not accidental, the figure of the main character is composed in a special way, but the context itself, clearly expanding, has a multiplicity of excuses. Cultural memory is cyclically oriented, for Evgeny Vodolazkin it is an impulse to destabilize meanings, because it is an ontological task of artistic creation.

Designing for Teen Mental Health: An exploration of the co-design of virtual reality in the public library setting

Teen mental health is in a state of crisis in the United States. One in three adolescents is suffering from a mental health issue and suicide is the third leading cause of death for teens ages 15–24. The demand for mental health resources far outweighs the supply suggesting creative and accessible mental health resources are needed. The public library is a community resource available to all community members and is an ideal location for providing mental health supports. Therefore, in this project, we engaged three, diverse groups of teens (n = 30) in the design and development of a virtual reality environment intended to support teen mental health. Teens from two urban (Seattle and Washington, D.C.) and one rural setting (Texas) participated in a 13-session, after school co-design program led by local library staff. Through these design sessions, we learned that (1) Teens are interested and engaged in talking about their mental health and find nature and animals relaxing and helpful. (2) Teens envision virtual reality (VR) as an environment to help them manage or avoid stress and feelings of overwhelm. (3) As designers teens enjoy active interaction and the ability to iterate on their designs. (4) VR designs by teens often included being in nature and with animals. These data suggest that virtual reality may be a successful medium and public libraries an appropriate site in which to engage teens in co-design for mental health. More importantly, such programs may offer an invitation to encourage teens to think about and discuss their own mental health.

The Role of Sea Ice Insulation Effects on the Probability of AMOC Transitions

Abstract Recent simulations performed with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) have suggested a crucial role of sea ice processes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) hysteresis behavior under varying surface freshwater forcing. Here, we further investigate this issue using additional CESM simulations and a novel conceptual ocean–sea ice box model. The CESM simulations suggest that the presence of sea ice gives rise to the existence of statistical equilibria with a weak AMOC strength. This is confirmed in the conceptual model, which captures similar AMOC hysteresis behavior as in the CESM simulation and where steady states are computed versus freshwater forcing parameters. In the conceptual model, transition probabilities between the different equilibrium states are determined using rare event techniques. The transition probabilities from a strong AMOC state to a weak AMOC state increase when considering sea ice insulation effects and indicate that sea ice promotes these transitions. On the other hand, sea ice insulation effects strongly reduce the probabilities of the reverse transition from a weak AMOC state to a strong AMOC state and this implies that sea ice also limits AMOC recovery. The results here indicate that sea ice effects play a dominant role in AMOC hysteresis width and influence transition probabilities between the different equilibrium states. Significance Statement We develop a novel conceptual ocean–sea ice box model to explain AMOC hysteresis behavior recently found in a modern complex climate model (the Community Earth System Model) and determine how sea ice insulation effects influence the hysteresis width and the probability of AMOC transitions.

Crystal structure and magnetic properties of Fe doped BaTiO3 at morphotropic phase boundary

Ceramic compounds BaTi1-xFexO with x = 0 – 0.2 prepared by solid state reaction technique were studied using X-ray diffraction, Raman spectroscopy, and magnetometry methods focusing on the correlation between the structure and magnetic properties. Chemical doping with Fe ions leads to a concentration driven structural transformation from the single phase tetragonal (T-) structure to the hexagonal (H-) structure with a mixed structural state stable in the concentration range 0.06 <x ≤ 0.2. Increase in the Fe ions content causes a stabilization of weak ferromagnetic state driven by the exchange interactions Fe3+ – O – Fe3+ ions strongly dependent on the structural positions of the Fe ions. Increase of the dopant content above x = 0.08 leads to a decrease of the remnant magnetization which is mainly caused by a stabilization of Fe4+ ions as well as by the lattice defects associated with oxygen vacancies formed to keep electroneutrality of the compounds. The results of the structural and magnetization measurements allowed to itemize the type of exchange interactions between Fe ions residing different structural positions of the hexagonal lattice as well as to reveal structural instability of the T- and H- phases under ambient conditions and applied electric field which shows a possibility to control the structure and magnetic properties of the mixed compounds via external stimuli.

The Church as a Fragile State: A New Institutional Model for Understanding the Persistence of the Sexual Abuse Crisis

The institutional model of the church has fallen into disfavor as a means for ecclesiological investigation because Avery Dulles, SJ, regarded it with suspicion because of its association with the notion that the church is a perfect state and the ways that institutionalism encourages clericalism. At the same time, there has been an ongoing debate as to the value of models for addressing the concrete reality of the church and for engaging the social sciences. Engaging economics as a dialogue partner, the author considers how the institutional model can be understood in terms of a fragile state instead of a perfect society to explain the persistence of sexual abuse in the Catholic Church and to suggest a strategy for institutional reforms.

Proliferation of Armed Non-State Actors in the Sahel

The increase in the spate of insecurity in West Africa and the Sahel has assumed colossal proportions. Insecurity in the region is largely perpetuated by non-state actors that continue to rise in numbers and evolve in operations. Indeed, armed non-state actors pervade Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad and Nigeria. The proliferation of these armed non-state actors constitutes a bane to the development of the region as it further subjects the region to extreme poverty, unprecedented humanitarian crisis and state fragility. This paper, therefore, examines how the mutually reinforcing challenges of climate change, bad governance, local militias, ungoverned space and poverty have necessitated the polarization of terror networks. This is done through the adoption of a qualitative approach and reliance on secondary sources of data such as textbooks, peer-reviewed journal articles, government reports, newspaper articles, online newspapers etc. The paper finds that governance is a critical driver and predictive element in the understanding of the proliferation of ANSAs. It concludes that ANSAs take advantage of poor governance to establish an informal governance system that adopts violence to maintain control whilst encouraging a shadow economy characterized by terrorism, kidnap for ransom, rivalry attacks and illegal activities. The paper, therefore, recommends the adoption of a framework of local governance characterized by responsive institutions, inclusive politics and resilient society.

Banditry and human security in Nigeria: Assessing the amnesty implemetation in the North-West region

ABSTRACT Existing studies on banditry in Nigeria have blamed it on bad governance, ungoverned spaces and a failed state thesis among others. However, little academic discourse has been conducted to cover the gap between amnesty implementation for bandits and how it undermines human security in North-West Nigeria. While predominant bandit-ridden states in the region have opted to grant amnesty to repentant bandits, against the federal implementation of a more kinetic approach, this strategy seems to have failed to tackle rising banditry and its attendant threat to human security. Adopting a descriptive qualitative research and anchoring it on the fragile state theory, the paper argues that the failure of amnesty stems from the transactional nature of the programme, born out of the complicity of state representatives and bandits, which consequently was unable to prevent the so-called ‘repentant bandits’ from returning to crime. As a result, the amnesty failed to tackle the persistent bandit attacks and associated humanitarian crisis. While the finding of this paper queries the way and manner the amnesty was implemented, it recommends adopting a strategic kinetic approach with strict rules of engagement that will be clearly spelt out and adhered to by the parties involved.