Water Risk Assessment Research Articles

Radiological characterization related to lithology and risk assessment of bottled natural mineral water

The enhancement of natural radioactivity in groundwater, specifically in natural mineral water, is related to the lithological formations through which water bodies or courses pass. Although natural mineral waters are exempt from monitoring for radioactive substances according to Council Directive 2013/51/EURATOM, this study focuses on the radiological characterization of natural mineral water under Spanish Royal Decree 3/2023. The water studied was taken from Catalan aquifers with different lithological characteristics (sedimentary, metamorphic or granitic) and is sold on local markets. Moreover, radiological data on the water was correlated with its lithological origin and the health risk for different age groups was assessed. Our results showed that of the 26 natural mineral waters studied, 10 exceeded gross alpha screening value (100 mBq/L), all from granitic aquifers. Further research on natural individual radionuclides was conducted on these ten samples. 234U and 238U were at around 1100–1600 mBq/L. In addition, 210Pb was found in two samples, which also presented the highest 226Ra activity, associated with granitic bedrock and the presence of 210Po. The annual effective dose was 179.0 µSv/year and 145.9 µSv/year, exceeding 100 µSv/year mainly due to the contribution of 210Pb > 234,238U > 210Po > 226Ra, in this order. After assessing the lifetime cancer risk, these two samples were determined not to pose a health risk due to ingestion. Although no radiological monitoring is required for natural mineral water, further surveillance is recommendable.

Water Quality Analysis and Risk Assessment of Potential Toxic Elements in Selected Surface Water Around Mining Sites in Abuakwa South Municipal, Ghana

ABSTRACTSurface water quality at Abuakwa South Municipal has received threats from surrounding mining communities, which are becoming a major concern to the public. As a result, this study aimed to assess water quality by examining the concentration of lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), and zinc (Zn) pollution in surface water. Fifteen samples were obtained from surface water using a 1.5 L plastic bottle. The mean concentrations of Pb and Cd were above WHO guidelines of 0.01 and 0.003 mg/l, respectively, except for Zn which was below the stipulated limit of 3.0 mg/l. The geochemical process model shows that Cd, Pb, and Zn are adsorbing (released from the drainage to the surrounding environment) in sites 1 and 3 whereas Pb is desorbing (added to the drainage) in site 2. A hazard quotient greater than 1 was recorded for Cd in adults through the ingestion route of exposure at all the sites. Cancer risk also shows that the inhabitants are at risk through the ingestion route of exposure. The findings of this study suggest intake of water draining within the vicinity is unsafe and poses severe health risks.

Risk Assessment of Urban Water and Energy Supply Using Copula Function: A Water–Energy Nexus Approach in an Arid City

Planning for the future of water and energy supply systems in urban areas requires a thorough assessment of associated risks. In this study, monthly water and energy demand data from 2011 to 2022 in an arid city was used to predict the corresponding demands from 2023 to 2032 using the seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) method. The aim is to estimate future water and energy supply risks both individually and jointly, using cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) derived from historical data. The main focus is to calculate the combined risk of water and energy, referred to as the water–energy nexus (WEN) risk. Based on the interdependent relationship between water and energy, the Copula function was utilized to model the bivariate distribution between these two variables. Pearson correlation analysis indicated a strong correlation between water and energy supplies. Among the distributions fitted to the data, the log-normal and gamma distributions were the best fit for water supply and energy supply systems, respectively, with the lowest Akaike information criterion (AIC) values. The Gumbel Copula, with a parameter of 1.66, was identified as the most suitable for modeling the joint distribution, yielding the lowest AIC value. The results indicate that the risks associated with energy supply, water supply, and their joint dependency could exceed 0.8% in the future, highlighting a potentially critical situation for the city. The trend analysis revealed that forecasted water and energy demands and their corresponding risks and the WEN risk are expected to have a significant upward trend in the future. Finally, local authorities need to explore alternative sources to supply water and energy in the future to address the ever-growing water and energy demands.

Surface-derived groundwater contamination in Gulu District, Uganda: Chemical and microbial tracers

Groundwater is consumed by over 2 billion people globally, though it can be impacted by microbial and chemical contamination in both rural and (peri-)urban areas. This issue is particularly pertinent in regions like East Africa, where rapid urbanisation has strained local infrastructure, including water and sanitation systems. We use selected tracers of human and animal waste to assess the quality of community drinking sources with regards to surface-derived groundwater inputs and to compare urban versus rural water quality, under the rapidly developing urban area of Gulu, Northern Uganda. Specifically, we examine bulk and fluorescent dissolved organic matter (DOM), microorganisms (total coliforms, E.coli) and inorganic tracers of anthropogenic waste (NO3−, SO42−, Cl/Br) from various sources: boreholes (12–76 m depth; n = 90), protected springs (n = 11) and municipal taps (n = 4). Our results show that NO3− and SO42− were elevated in groundwater sources in the Gulu city urban area and the Cl/Br ratio was elevated in springs, compared to concentrations in the more rural Aswa and Omoro County area (p < 0.05). Interestingly, human and animal waste indicators E.coli and Tryp:FA (the ratio of tryptophan-like to fulvic-like fluorescence) displayed no significant difference between rural and urban settings (p > 0.05), though total coliforms were significantly higher in rural boreholes (p < 0.05). The presence of a pollution source, pollution carrier and a breakdown of a sanitary barrier at the borehole, as spot-checked by a visual sanitary risk assessment, was significantly associated with groundwater E.coli abundances. Evidence suggests monitoring and mitigation should be improved for all water types in Gulu District to meet WHO and Uganda Standard guidelines for potable water. This study offers valuable insights for water management planning and risk assessment of community water sources particularly in the context of East Africa and similar settings.

Do pyrethroid pesticide residues in Chinese mitten crab aquaculture areas have an impact on the ecological environment? ——A case study of Yangcheng Lake

Pyrethroid pesticides are widely used in agriculture, aquaculture, and daily life in China, leading to concerns about their environmental residues. However, there is limited information available regarding the compositional distribution, bioaccumulation, and associated health and environmental risks of pyrethroids in the aquaculture areas of Eastern China. This study investigated the residues, distribution, and risk assessment of pyrethroids including deltamethrin, permethrin, fenvalerate, cypermethrin and bifenthrin in Yangcheng Lake using solid-phase extraction and gas chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. The risk assessment of water, sediment, and aquatic products of Yangcheng Lake was conducted using various evaluation methods. The results revealed that pyrethroids were found at higher levels in both water and sediment in Yangcheng Lake with some seasonal variations observed in their distribution patterns. Compared with other watersheds in China, typical aquaculture areas of the Yangtze River Delta showed higher detection rates and quantities of pyrethroid pesticides. Ecological risk assessments indicated high risks to the environment from all five tested pyrethroids at Yangcheng Lake; deltamethrin posed the highest risk among them. Dietary assessment results showed no risks associated with aquatic products from Yangcheng Lake but drinking water at certain sites presented unacceptable health risks.

Detection of PCBs and OCPs in the Irtysh River Water (GC-MS/MS) and ecological risk assessment

This study optimized a gas chromatography-tandem triple quadrupole mass spectrometry (GC-MS/MS) method for the determination of 21 persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in Irtysh River water, including 14 organochlorines (OCPs) and 7 polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Factors such as column temperature ramping, selection of qualitative and quantitative ion pairs and collision energy were considered to achieve perfect separation and accurate quantification of all 21 target compounds. The limits of detection (LOD) for PCBs and OCPs ranged from 0.21 to 1.18 ng/L. Applying this method to detect POPs in the Irtysh River revealed concentrations of OCPs ranging from ND to 20.2 ng/L and PCBs from ND to 0.411 ng/L. Source analysis indicated that POPs in the Irtysh River mainly originate from historical industrial and agricultural activities, particularly the deliberate use of pesticides. To ensure ecological safety and human health, expanding the range of target analytes and monitoring periods is necessary. This study provides:•Qualitative and quantitative analysis methods for 7 PCBs and 14 OCPs.•Recoveries achieved ranged between 74.6 to 109 % with RSD less than 15 %.•Analysis of sources, transport pathways, accumulation status, and ecological risks of PCBs and OCPs in the Irtysh River.

Heavy metal's pollution health risk assessment and source appraisal of groundwater and surface water in Irob catchment, Tigray, Northern Ethiopia

Contamination of water resources by heavy metals causes health problems for humans. This study attempts to investigate the heavy metal contamination levels, health risks and sources of appraisal of groundwater and surface water in the mountain-bounded catchment and low-grade basement rock-dominated area of ​​the Irob, Tigray. Eighteen grab water samples (13 borehole water, 2 spring water and 3 surface water) were collected and analyzed for pH, electrical conductivity, total dissolved solids and heavy metals using standard procedures. The findings were contrasted with those of the standards set by the World Health Organization and the United States Environmental Protection Agency. Integrated techniques, including indexed and statistical methods, were used to determine the contamination levels of metals, risks to human health and sources. The result shows that the pH value, electrical conductivity and total dissolved solids fluctuated between 7.4 and 7.9, 516 and 2410 µs/cm and 396.7 mg/l and 1719 mg/l, respectively. The findings indicate that 94.4% of the water samples had levels of contamination above the critical limit for all three indices: the heavy metal evaluation index (HEI), the degree of contamination (cd) and the heavy metal pollution index. The hazard index of metals for adults and children was greater than 1. 88.9% of the water samples showed a cancer risk value above the recommended value (CR > 1 × 10–4) for Cd and Cr for both adults and children. Multivariate statistical analyses indicate that weathering of bedrocks and partly anthropogenic influences are responsible for the metal contamination. The study concludes that some water samples sources are unfit for human consumption that can pose health risks over time. Therefore, it is recommended to treat contaminated water sources to protect and sustain public health.

From perception to action: Participatory water risk assessment in Nagaon District of Assam, India

This paper presents an examination of water risks in rural communities within Nagaon district of Assam, India. It employs a participatory approach to integrate community perspectives into the assessment process. The objective is to engage local people, gain an understanding of water risks they encounter in their everyday lives, and incorporate their opinions and experiences. To achieve this objective, the present analyses employ mixed methods, including stakeholder interviews, focus group discussions, household surveys, and community forums. Additionally, the development of the Participatory Water Risk Index (PWRI) provides a novel metric for quantifying and prioritizing water risks, aligning with local priorities and perspectives. The findings highlight the identification and evaluation of seven key parameters of water risk which include availability and sufficiency of drinking water, water quality issues, prevalence of water-related diseases, irrigation facilities, vulnerability to floods, and utilization of public water infrastructure. The study underscores the importance of community involvement and empowerment in addressing water-related challenges and promoting resilience. Policy recommendations derived from the research emphasize the need for context-specific approaches to water resource management, recognizing the unique challenges and strengths of each community within the district. The transferability of the PWRI to other locations offers substantial opportunities for improving water security worldwide, contingent upon careful consideration of context-specific parameters and community engagement. Thus, this paper contributes to the advancement of sustainable water management practices by integrating local knowledge into the assessment process, guiding future interventions to build a water-secure future for rural communities in Nagaon district and beyond.

Spatio-temporal variations of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylene (BTEX) in water, sediment and health risk assessment of three fin-fishes from three lagoons in Lagos, Nigeria

Spatio-temporal variations of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylene (BTEX) in water, sediment and health risk assessment of three fin-fishes from three lagoons in Lagos, Nigeria

A Fuzzy Ballast Water Risk Assessment Model in Maritime Transport

Recent years have witnessed a growing awareness of the critical role that maritime transport plays in global sustainability, given its significant environmental, economic, and social impacts. Central to this concern is the management of ballast water, which, if not properly treated, can lead to the introduction of invasive species, biodiversity loss, and substantial economic and health repercussions. Traditional risk assessment models often fail to capture the complex uncertainties inherent in environmental risks associated with ballast water. This study introduces an innovative fuzzy logic-based risk assessment model designed to enhance decision-making processes in maritime operations by accurately assessing and mitigating the environmental risks of ballast water discharge. The model, structured using three fuzzy systems, integrates human reasoning with mathematical precision, providing an effective tool for sustainable maritime practices. The integrated fuzzy system employs 18 variables as inputs and yields three outputs (ballasting, ballast exchange, and de-ballasting risk). To evaluate the performance of the developed system, various data sets are used and tested through the MATLAB Fuzzy Toolbox. By aligning maritime operations with sustainability principles, this research contributes to the preservation of marine ecosystems, supports the economic stability of marine-dependent industries, and safeguards public health, underscoring the interconnectivity of maritime transport management with overarching sustainability objectives.

Water Quality and Risk Assessment of Selected Heavy Metals in Tilapia Oreochromis niloticus from Pulangi Lake, the Philippines

Regular monitoring of the water quality and heavy metal concentration in edible fish from the Pulangi Lake – an artificial lake in Bukidnon, the Philippines – has not yet been established. This study analyzed the water quality of the Pulangi Lake and assessed the associated risks of heavy metals cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), and lead (Pb) in Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) harvested from the lake during the dry season. Key informant interviews (KII) were also conducted to gather relevant information about the lake. The physico-chemical analysis of the surface water revealed high fecal coliform levels, exceeding the standard limit by more than 100%, but the concentrations of Cd, Cr, and Pb were below the standard limit. However, the Cr concentration in tilapia (0.2430–1.7870 mg/kg) exceeded the permissible limit of 0.05 mg/kg set by the Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Health Organization. Low concentrations of Cd (0.0270–0.1140 mg/kg) and Pb (0.0360–0.4350 mg/kg) were observed. The risk assessment of these individual heavy metals measured from tilapia and its combined impacts showed no potential non-carcinogenic effects based on the estimated target hazard quotient (THQ &lt; 1) and hazard index (HI &lt; 1). However, based on the permissible target cancer risk (1 x 10–6 to 1 x 10–4), tilapia from the Pulangi Lake should be reexamined as it appears that – in terms of Cd and Cr – the probability relating to contamination problem can occur. The present study can be used as baseline data for risk management.

Groundwater Contamination with Nitrate and Human Health Risk Assessment of North East Alluvial Plains of Bihar, India

Groundwater is natural resources which supplies almost half of all drinking water in the world and plays a key role in food production. Consuming water containing high nitrate concentration have immediate effect on infant and could cause the risk of diseases Methemoglobinemia in which blood lacks the ability to carry sufficient oxygen to the individual body cells. As difference in nitrate concentration in water, made it important to study the undesirable effect of it. In rural areas, groundwater contamination is a problem related to the excessive use of chemical fertilizers by local farmers. Shallow groundwater plays a vital role in water use and the yield of Maize. Nitrogen application significantly affects crop uptake and utilization of water from irrigation, but little is known about groundwater use. Farmers are applying nitrogen on an average 278 kg/ha in Kharif maize, which is about 131.72% more than the RDN of Kharif maize i.e. 120 KgN/ha. The mean value of N application by farmers ranges from 251-323 kg/ha. The Maximum rate of N application was observed in Khagaria (323 kg N/ha) followed by Madhepura (275.08 kg N/ha) and minimum in case of Saharsa district (251.16 kg N/ha). The application rate of nitrogenous fertilizer, varying from 109.25% to 169.16% over the RDN, resulting in NO3- leaching. The groundwater and surfacewater from 12 villages was collected and various quality parameters were analysed. The nitrate in ground water varied (1.87- 6.19 mg/L) and surface water (1.87 – 3.84 mg/L) being maximum concentration of nitrate in Madhepura district. The present study on nitrate leaching in soil, its level of contamination in ground water and human health risk assessment by chronic daily intake of nitrate and Hazard Quotient (H.Q) values in the study area of Khagaria, Saharsa, Madhepura and Supaul has been carried out in the eastern alluvial region of Bihar.

Aquatic and sediment ecotoxicity data of difenoconazole and its potential environmental risks in ponds bordering rice paddies

Difenoconazole has a widespread agricultural use to control fungal diseases in crops, including rice. In edge-of-field surface waters the residues of this lipophilic fungicide may be toxic to both pelagic and benthic organisms. To allow an effect assessment we mined the regulatory and open literature for aquatic toxicity data. Since published sediment toxicity data were scarce we conducted 28 d sediment-spiked toxicity test with 8 species of benthic macroinvertebrates. Ecotoxicological threshold levels for effects were assessed by applying the species sensitivity distribution approach. Based on short-term L(E)C50’s for aquatic organisms from water-only tests an acute Hazardous Concentration to 5% of the species (HC5) of 100 µg difenoconazole/L was obtained, while the HC5 based on chronic NOEC values was a factor of 104 lower (0.96 µg difenoconazole/L). For benthic macroinvertebrates the chronic HC5, based on 28d-L(E)C10 values, was 0.82 mg difenoconazole/kg dry weight sediment. To allow a risk assessment for water- and sediment-dwelling organisms, exposure concentrations were predicted for the water and sediment compartment of an edge-of-field pond bordering rice paddies treated with difenoconazole using the Chinese Top-Rice modelling approach, the Chinese Nanchang exposure scenario and the Equilibrium Partitioning theory. It appeared that in the vast majority of the 20 climate years simulated, potential risks to aquatic and sediment organisms cannot be excluded. Although the HC5 values based on laboratory toxicity data provide one line of evidence only, our evaluation suggests population- and community-level effects on these organisms due to chronic risks in particular.

Risk Assessment of Drinkable Water from Hand-dug Reservoirs Using Gross Alpha and Beta Radioactivity Levels in Ogwashi-Uku, Delta State

Over the past decade, radioactivity in drinking water has become a matter of urgent concern following reports from various scientific researches. The rapid urbanization and increase in population of Ogwashi-Uku has culminated in the increase for demand of safe and potable water hence the need for this study. A total of 10 samples were collected from the study location. Standard methods for determination of gross alpha and gross beta activity concentrations in the water samples were deployed. The measured gross alpha activity concentrations for all water samples are below 0.1 Bq/L while the measured gross beta activity concentrations in all water samples collected are lower than 1.0 Bq/L permissible limit. The mean annual dose equivalent in all the water samples for gross alpha and gross beta activity is lower than 0.1 mSv recommended dose for radionuclides in water, hence the life cancer risk assessment showed lower values, indicating the water is safe for drinking. The purpose of this study is to assess the concentration of gross alpha and beta activity levels of drinking water from hand-dug reservoirs in Ogwashi-Uku, Delta State in order to offer a scientific basis for making decisions regarding mitigating radioactive pollution and also to ensure the safety of drinking water and public health.

Risk Assessment of Water Saving Management Contract Based on Normal Cloud Model

Risk Assessment of Water Saving Management Contract Based on Normal Cloud Model

Glyphosate spraying exacerbates nitrogen and phosphorus loss in karst slope farmland.

Glyphosate herbicide is an indispensable material in agricultural production. In order to explore the potential environmental effects of glyphosate application in karst slope farmland, this paper used a variable slope steel tank to simulate the surface microtopography and underground pore structure characteristics of karst slope farmland, and combined with artificial rainfall experiments to explore the migration path of glyphosate in karst slope farmland and the impact of spraying glyphosate on soil nitrogen and phosphorus loss. The results showed that under the condition of heavy rain, glyphosate in karst slope farmland was mainly transported and diffused by surface runoff, supplemented by underground runoff; secondly, in different hydrological paths, glyphosate directly affected the content of nitrogen and phosphorus in runoff, and all showed extremely significant positive correlation (p < 0.001). In addition, rainfall conditions such as rainfall intensity, rainfall duration, and runoff affected the content of nitrogen and phosphorus in runoff to varying degrees. In conclusion, the application of glyphosate significantly increased the content of nitrogen and phosphorus in different runoff and accelerated the loss of nitrogen and phosphorus from soil, which not only led to soil degradation, but also threatened the safety of aquatic ecosystem. Therefore, in the prevention and control of agricultural non-point source pollution, the threat of glyphosate to the surrounding aquatic ecosystem cannot be ignored, especially in karst areas with frequent rainstorms and serious water erosion, long-term monitoring and risk assessment of glyphosate are needed.

Nitrate in Gravity Feed System (GFS) Water and Health Risk Assessment in Orang Asli Village in Rembau, Negeri Sembilan

Introduction: To determine the health risk assessment due to exposure to nitrate in Gravity Feed System (GFS) water in the Orang Asli Village of Rembau, Negeri Sembilan. Methods: This study involved 48 respondents who fulfilled the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Respondents with a filtration system installed in their houses were excluded from the study. A modified questionnaire was used to obtain the socio-demographic data. All collected water samples were analyzed using a HANNA Instruments multimeter with an attached nitrate electrode. Results: Nitrate in drinking water did not exceed the maximum limit of 45 mg/L set by health authorities. It ranged from 2.15 to 7.65 mg/L, with a mean ± standard deviation of 4.99 ± 1.37 mg/L. Further to this, the minimum and maximum pH values were 6.57-7.10. It was interpreted that there was no significant association between the concentration of nitrate and pH value in drinking water. The Hazard Quotient (HQ) calculation recorded that all respondents recorded an HQ of less than 1, indicating no cancer risk to consumers. Conclusion: The nitrate levels in GFS water are relatively low and do not threaten human health. However, it is recommended to conduct assessments on a regular basis to guarantee the levels within the permissible limit of the Malaysian National Drinking Water Quality Standard (NDWQS).

Determination of Fluoride in Gravity Feed System Water and Health Risk Assessment of Exposure to Fluoride among Indigenous People in Sungai Mas, Pahang

Introduction: To determine fluoride levels in gravity feed system water of Sungai Mas Village in Sungai Lembing, Kuantan, and its related potential health risk due to fluoride exposure from drinking water among adult indigenous people in the area. Methods: Adults who have lived in Sungai Mas Village, Pahang, for more than one year and use gravity feed system water as a drinking water source were selected as respondents. A set of questionnaires was used to determine socio-demographic and information on gravity feed system water usage among the respondents. A handheld Fluoride low-range (LR) Color-imeter and a portable pH meter were used to measure fluoride levels and pH in water samples, respectively. A body weight scale was used to measure the weight of respondents. Results: A total of 80 indigenous people in Sungai Mas Village were chosen as respondents. From 80 water samples col-lected, 98.75% had fluoride lower than the Malaysian National Standard for Drinking Water Quality’s permissible level (0.4 – 0.6 mg/L), while 1.25% had a fluoride level within the said level. Fluoride ranged from 0.10 to 0.41 mg/L, while pH ranged from 7.67 to 8.20, meaning 100% of the water samples had pH within the permissible level. The Hazard Quotient (HQ) was less than 1 (HQ &lt; 1). Conclusion: Water samples in the study area had low natural fluoride, which is insufficient to eradicate dental caries. Meanwhile, the value of the hazard quotient suggests that adults in Sungai Mas Village may not be at risk of developing dental and skeletal fluorosis.

Hydrological digital twin model of a large anthropized italian alpine catchment: The Adige river basin

Understanding and simulating the hydrological cycle, especially in a context of climate change, is crucial for quantitative water risk assessment and basin management. The hydrological cycle is complex as it is a combination of non-linear natural processes and anthropogenic influences that alter landforms and water flows. Human-induced changes of relevance, including changes in land uses, construction of dams and artificial reservoirs, and diversion of the river course, lead to changes in water flows throughout the basin. These should be explicitly accounted for a realistic representation of the anthropogenically altered hydrological cycle. Such a realistic representation of the hydrological cycle is a necessary input for the water risk assessment in a particular region. In this paper, we present a hydrological digital twin (HDT) model of a large anthropized alpine basin: the Adige basin located in the northeast of Italy.Most catchments model often overlook land-uses changes over time and forget to model reservoir operation and their influence over time on water flow. Yet, for example, the Adige basin has>30 reservoirs affecting the water flow. We therefore use the GEOframe modeling framework to demonstrate the ability to create a hydrological twin model accounting for these anthropogenic changes.Specifically, we model each component of the water cycle over 39 years (1980–2018) at daily timescale through calibration of the Adige HDT with a multi-site approach using discharge data of 33 stations, based on a high-resolution (1 km) temperature and precipitation dataset and a calculated crop potential evapotranspiration (PETc) dataset, which accounts for human-induced change of the land cover over time. The modeling system also includes the simulation of artificial reservoirs and dams by the dynamically zoned target release (DZTR) reservoir model.The Adige HDT is assessed/validated/compared through a variety of hydrological processes (i.e., river and reservoir discharges, PETc and actual evapotranspiration, snow, and soil moisture) and data sources (i.e., observations and remote sensing data).Overall, the HDT reproduces well the measured discharge in space and time with a Kling Gupta Efficiency (KGE) above 0.7 (0.8) for 30 (23) of the 33 gauge-stations. For 7 artificial reservoirs with available data, the reservoir turbinated discharges are successfully reproduced with an average KGE of 0.92. A comparison between modeled and MODIS remote sensing snow data showed an average error of < 10% across the entire basin; the model also presented a good spatio-temporal agreement both with GLEAMS potential (and actual evapotranspiration) with an average KGE of 0.63 (0.60) and a high-level of correlation (0.5 on average) with the ASCAT satellite retrieved soil moisture.The findings of this paper demonstrate the potential of the open-source, component-based, GEOframe system to build a HDT, to provide a reliable and long term (39 years) estimation of all the water cycle components in a complex anthropized river basin at high spatial resolution. Spatially detailed HDT models results of this type can be used to inform basin-wise adaptation policy decisions and better water management practices in a time of changing climate.

Seasonal variations of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) in drinking water and health risk assessment via Monte Carlo simulation and Sobol sensitivity analysis in southern Iran's largest city

The escalating concern over the presence and health implications of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) in drinking water has underscored the need for rigorous risk assessments. Our study aimed to quantify both the non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic health risks associated with exposure to selected PTEs—namely arsenic (As), chromium (Cr), and cadmium (Cd). Also, we evaluated ingestion and skin contact exposures to risks during summer and winter using metrics such as the hazard quotient (HQ), hazard index (HI), and cancer risk (CR) for children, adult males, and adult females. For all demographic groups and exposure pathways, the HQ values remain below the established safety threshold (HQ < 1). Notably, As consistently had the highest average HI value across children, male adults, and female adults. Seasonal variations were statistically significant (p < 0.05) for As and Cr, but not Cd. During the summer, the average total carcinogenic risks (TCR) from drinking water exposure were 7.61 × 10–6, 8.94 × 10–6, and 1.12 × 10–5 for children, male adults, and female adults, respectively. In the winter, these values were 1.18 × 10–5, 1.40 × 10–5, and 1.75 × 10–5, respectively. The fuzzy C-means clustering analysis provided insights into our dataset's Cr, Cd, and As distribution patterns. Results indicate that As, Cr, and Cd mean concentrations were below the World Health Organization health-based guidelines. The CR values for children and adults from drinking water exposure were slightly above or below the US Environmental Protection Agency’s standards. These findings can inform research and policy-making regarding the risk of PTEs in drinking water and highlight the need to monitor Shiraz water regularly.