Water Resources In Watershed Research Articles

Assessing Hydrological Response and Resilience of Watersheds as Strategy for Climatic Change Adaptation in Neotropical Region

This study aimed to assess the hydrological response and resilience of watersheds in a neotropical region to identify regions sensitive to climate variations, enabling the development of adaptive strategies in response to global environmental changes. This study applied Budyko’s framework using Fuh’s hydrological model rewritten by Zhou to estimate hydrological response and Budyko’s metrics (deviation and elasticity) to estimate hydrological resilience to climatic changes in 26 watersheds in southeastern Brazil. The proposed modeling was able to capture the differences among the watersheds, with “m” values ranging from 1.79 to 3.63. It was possible to rank the hydrological resilience from low to high across watersheds using Budyko’s metrics, where the highest values of elasticity were found in watersheds with a higher percentage of forest cover. The sensitive analyses showed that watersheds with higher “m” values are more sensitive to changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The results also demonstrate that mean elevation and stream density were two key variables that influence the “m” value; these physiographic characteristics may alter the water and energy balance of the watershed affecting the water yield. A relationship between watershed’s hydrological response and resilience was proposed to identify critical areas for the stability of water yield in the watersheds, providing a guide for public policy and suggesting ways to help the management of water resources in watersheds.

Measuring hydrologic regime alterations and hydrodynamic characteristics in the Xijiang River Basin by the IHA-RVA method

Abstract An objective assessment of hydrological alterations is crucial for comprehensive water resource management, environmental protection, river ecosystem restoration, and integrated watershed water resource management. To quantitatively assess the ecological hydrologic regime alterations in the Xijiang River Basin in southern China considering the impacts from Longtan Reservoir, daily runoff data from two hydrological stations, Dahuangjiangkou and Wuzhou, are selected from 1973 to 2020. The changes in the flow are analyzed, and the indicators of hydrological alternation/range of variability approach (IHA-RVA) are employed to assess the hydrological regime alternations in the studied basin. The main findings are as follows: (1) Both stations show a decreasing trend in annual runoff, with the moving T-test detecting a change point in the runoff series in 2002. (2) The two stations’ overall hydrologic alteration degrees are 57% and 60%, with a more remarkable variation in the upstream area. Hydrological station changes tend to wane as the distance from the reservoir increases, which indicates that with the increased reservoir-station distance, the impact of the reservoir on the hydrologic process diminishes.

An integrated simulation-optimization modeling approach for coupled risk management of blue water and green water under changing environmental conditions

Due to the impact of global climate change and land use changes, the spatiotemporal distribution and water cycle processes of watershed water resources are affected. In order to sustainably manage watershed water resources, it is necessary to accurately assess the available water volume to meet the coordinated management of the watershed's socio-economic subsystem and eco-environment subsystem. The amount of Bluewater resources (BW) is closely related to the amount of Greenwater resources (GW). BW is directly related to human consumption in the socio-economic subsystem, while GW is used to maintain the health of the ecosystem. A method called the integrated simulation-optimization modeling system (ISOMS) was developed to evaluate adaptive strategies for dealing with the combined effects of climate change and land-use changes. ISOMS not only predicts future hydrological trends under varying environmental conditions but also generates comprehensive risk management plans that incorporate different types of uncertainties, including random and fuzzy factors. The Copula function is introduced to handle the interaction between available BW and available GW. The results showed that: (i) uncertainties in the hydrologic system could result in alterations to the distribution of water resources; (ii) system benefits are, to some extent, affected by land use change and climate change; (iii) the shortage of BW is affected by the level of risk, and the joint risk increases, resulting in an increase in water scarcity; (iv) the planned annual agricultural water consumption is the highest, followed by domestic water consumption, and industrial water consumption is the lowest. Through the results of the model operation, the joint risk assessment and adaptive management of BW and GW in the East River Basin (ERB) under changing environments, as well as the BW allocation plan, are obtained to provide support for scientific and reasonable resource collaborative decision-making and promote the synchronized advancement of the socio-economic subsystem and eco-environment subsystem in the ERB.

Quantifying the Influence of Climatic and Anthropogenic Factors on Multi-Scalar Streamflow Variation of Jialing River, China

Clarifying the impact of driving forces on multi-temporal-scale (annual, quarterly and monthly) runoff changes is of great significance for watershed water resource planning. Based on monthly runoff data and meteorological data of the Jialing River (JLR) during 1982–2020, the Mann–Kendall tendency testing approach was first applied to analyze variation tendencies of multi-timescale runoff. Then, abrupt variation years of runoff were determined using Pettitt and cumulative anomaly mutation testing approaches. The ABCD model was employed for simulating hydrological change processes in the base period and variation period. Finally, influences of climatic and anthropic factors on multi-scalar runoff were computed using the multi-scalar Budyko formula. The following conclusions were drawn in this study: (1) The mutation year of discharge was 1993; (2) the monthly runoff in the JLR presented a “single peak” distribution, and the concentration degree and concentration period in the JLR both showed an insignificant reduction trend; (3) anthropic factors were the dominant factor for spring runoff variations; climatic factors were the dominant factor on annual, summer, fall and winter runoff variations; (4) except for November, climatic factors were the dominant factor causing runoff changes in the other 11 months. This study has important reference value for water resource allocation and flood control decisions in the JLR.

A Study on the Determination and Spatial Flow of Multi-Scale Watershed Water Resource Supply and Benefit Areas

Based on the principle of water supply and demand flow and the natural flow of water, this paper analyzes the flow direction and discharge of water resources in the study area. In order to provide scientific and systematic implementation suggestions for regional water resource protection management and ecological compensation, a SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was constructed to quantify the water resource supply of the upper Hanjiang River basin at three spatial scales: pixel, sub-basin, and administrative unit. The water demand at the three spatial scales was calculated using the LUCC (Land Use and Land Coverage) and water consumption index. The supply and benefit zones under different spatial and temporal scales were obtained. Simultaneously, this study uncovered the spatiotemporal dynamics inherent in water resource supply and demand, alongside elucidating the spatial extent and flow attributes of water supply. The ecological compensation scheme of water resource supply–demand was preliminarily determined. The findings indicate an initial increase followed by a decrease in both the water supply and demand in the upper reaches of the Han River, accompanied by spatial disparities in the water supply distribution. The direction of the water supply generally flows from branch to main stream. The final ecological compensation scheme should be combined with natural conditions and economic development to determine a reasonable financial compensation system.

Establishment of an Evaluation Indicator System and Evaluation Criteria for the Weihe River Ecological Watersheds

Ecological watersheds (eco-watersheds) are of great significance for boosting the construction of ecological civilization and realizing the ecological protection and high-quality development of watersheds. In order to establish a scientific eco-watershed evaluation index system, this paper refers to the river health evaluation index system, the water resources coupling evaluation index system, and the happy river evaluation index system, and reviews the development process of the ecological watershed evaluation index system. According to the eco-watershed theoretical system, combined with the relevant contents of policies and regulations, thousands of evaluation indicators that have been collected are screened using the theoretical analysis method and the frequency analysis method. Finally, a comprehensive evaluation index system of Weihe River eco-watersheds was constructed, including three first-level indicators: watershed water resources, socio-economic, and ecological. These were further subdivided into eight second-level indicators, namely water security, water resources, water economy, water management, water culture, water environment, water ecology, and water landscape. These second-level indicators were then further broken down into 60 third-level indicators. On the basis of determining the evaluation standards of Weihe River eco-watersheds, the evaluation weights were determined using the gray correlation method and the AHP-entropy comprehensive weight method (comprehensive weight), resulting in the establishment of an evaluation model and a coupling model for the eco-watersheds of the Weihe River. The results of the Weihe River eco-watershed evaluation model and the coupled coordination degree evaluation model show that, from 2019 to 2021, both the gray correlation analysis weights and comprehensive weight evaluation show a yearly increasing trend; the evaluation results are in the eligible status and below; and the evaluation grade is in the fourth-level eco-watersheds and below. Based on the evaluation results of each dimension, when comparing the gray correlation analysis weights with the evaluation of the comprehensive weights, the latter align more closely with the actual Weihe River Watershed. When comparing the evaluation results of the Henan Weihe River Watershed with those of the Handan Weihe River Watershed, the latter’s results, influenced by the scheduling of the Yuecheng Reservoir, are relatively better. Furthermore, in the evaluation of coupling coordination, the water resources subsystem is less coupled to other subsystems due to the 2021 flood. Therefore, in order to effectively improve the level of eco-watersheds, scientific and reasonable water resources scheduling programs should be developed.

Multi-Source Remote Sensing Analysis of Yilong Lake’s Surface Water Dynamics (1965–2022): A Temporal and Spatial Investigation

With the acceleration of global warming and the intensification of anthropogenic activities, numerous lakes worldwide are experiencing reductions in their water surface areas. Yilong Lake, a typical shallow plateau lake located on the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau in China, serves as a crucial water resource for local human production, daily life, and ecosystem services. Hence, long-term comprehensive monitoring of its dynamic changes is essential for its effective protection. However, previous studies have predominantly utilized remote sensing data with limited temporal resolution, thus failing to reflect the long-term variations in Yilong Lake’s water body. This study employs high temporal resolution monitoring, utilizing multi-source satellite data (e.g., KeyHole, Landsat, HJ-1 A/B) images spanning from 1965 to 2022 to investigate the changes in Yilong Lake’s surface area, analyzing the influencing factors and ecological impacts of these changes. The results indicate that from 1965 to 2022, Yilong Lake’s water surface area decreased by 8.33 km2, with a maximum surface area of 40.49 km2 on January 7, 1986, and a minimum surface area of 10.64 km2 on April 20, 2013. These changes are characterized by three significant phases: (1) a rapid shrinking phase (1965–1979); (2) a fluctuating shrinking period (1986–2016); and (3) an expanding recovery phase (2016–2022). Spatially, the most significant shrinkage was observed along the southern and southwestern shores of the lake. The driving factors varied across different periods: sunshine duration was the dominant influence during the rapid shrinking phase (1965–1979), accounting for 82% of the changes; population and cropland area were the main drive factors during the fluctuating shrinking period (1986–2016), accounting for 56% of the changes; and during the expanding recovery phase (2016–2022), the population accounted for 75% of the changes in the lake’s surface area. Currently, the protection of Yilong Lake depends on water supplementation and strict regulation of outflow, resulting in the lake exhibiting characteristics similar to a reservoir. This long-term investigation provides baseline information for future lake monitoring. Our research findings can also guide decision-makers in urban water resource management and environmental protection, ensuring the scientific and rational use of watershed water resources, effectively curbing the shrinkage of Yilong Lake, and achieving long-term sustainable restoration of the lake’s ecology.

Comparative Assessment of Physicochemical and Biological Indicies of Otamiri and Nworie River Using a Piper Diagram Model

The Surface Water Resources of Otamiri-Nworie Watershed within the Owerri Metropolis were studied with the prime aim of developing a Non-Point Source Event-Based Model to Contamination of the water bodies. Clean, safe, and sufficient water is essential for both human existence and the health of ecosystems, communities, and economies (Fubara and Kpormon, 2023). As human populations increase, industrial and agricultural production increases, and climate change pose a threat of significant disruption of the hydrologic cycle, and as such, declining water quality has emerged as a major global problem (Ogbonna and Orinya, 2023). Human-drinking water must be free of organisms and chemical substances, as high amounts might be harmful to one’s health (Adeyi et al., 2021). This study aimed at comparatively assessing the physicochemical and biological indices of Otamiri and Nworie Rivers, and the Piper diagram model was employed for the analysis. Fifteen water samples were collected along the course of the two rivers and analyzed for physical, chemical and microbial parameters. Physical, chemical, and biological parameters were analyzed. The analytical results of the samples were compared with notable standards like the World Health Organization [WHO], etc. It was observed that all the parameters analyzed for the rivers fall below the acceptable standards except for pH (6.5-8.5) indicating the acidic nature of these water bodies. Similarly, the colour value of the two rivers ranges between 21.5 to 229 PCU and observed to be decreasing downstream within Nworie and Otamiri rivers. Within the river Nworie axis, both the total dissolved solids (TDS) and the total suspended solids (TSS) were observed to be increasing downstream. Along Otamiri river before confluence, total dissolved solids increased downstream whereas the reverse was the case for the total suspended solids, just after the confluence. There is a noticeable increase in dissolved oxygen (DO) downstream within the Nworie axis. The biological oxygen demand (BOD) values for the rivers were below the WHO standard. Finally, the major sources of contamination within the study area revealed that they are mainly from agricultural practices, dumpsites, and human defecation. The quality can be improved by applying appropriate treatment to the water before its use for various purposes.

Improved hydrological modelling and ET estimation in watershed with irrigation interference

Evapotranspiration (ET) is the true water consumption of the watershed and is key to achieving water conservation. The accurate estimation of ET by distributed hydrological model can provide an important basis for watershed water resources management. At present, the traditional approach calibrating distributed hydrological model parameters by runoff has low accuracy in watersheds under human interference. The reason is that the measured runoff is no longer natural due to various human activities such as river water withdrawals, reservoir regulation and inter-basin water transfer. While using ET for model calibration can effectively overcome this interference, making it a more accurate approach for watersheds under human interference. Therefore, we calibrated the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model using PMLV_2 ET in Ziya River under frequent human activities. The results indicated that calibrating the model with remote sensing ET could improve the model’s simulation performance, increasing the NS from 0.65 to 0.83. However, the annual ET calculated by the model was 21.7% lower than PMLV_2 ET. The largest underestimation was for the annual ET of cropland (agricultural ET), which was underestimated by 24.4%. This is partly because the model did not account for irrigation evaporation from cropland. Therefore we used Landsat 8 data to extract the planting areas of winter wheat, which consumes the highest irrigation water in the Ziya River Basin, from 2013 to 2018. The planting areas and irrigation regimes of winter wheat were incorporated into the SWAT model to calculate the agricultural ET. The results indicate that the agricultural ET calculated by the SWAT model that considers irrigation evaporation is 6.9% lower than that of PMLV_2 ET. The simulation accuracy of ET is significantly improved. This study provides a reference for accurate estimation of agricultural ET and a basis for ET management.

Public opinion risk perception of decision makers’ in transboundary watershed emergency water supply

ABSTRACT In recent years, the number of public opinion risks related to sudden transboundary drought events has continued to increase. Research on the perception of public opinion risks has become an indispensable and increasingly important part of emergency management research in transboundary watersheds. Based on relevant literature and interview materials, an exploratory theoretical construction was conducted using the grounded theory research method. The research results indicate that four main categories of public opinion risks, namely, political, economic, ecological and environmental, and socio-cultural, have a significant impact on the perception of public opinion risks among decision-makers in transboundary watershed emergency water supply. The formation mechanisms of decision-makers’ perception of public opinion risks vary in each of these four categories. This research not only enriches the relevant research on the influencing factors of decision-makers’ perception of public opinion risks in theory but also provides decision-making reference and guidance for transboundary watershed water resource management in practice.

The Applicability of the Drought Index and Analysis of Spatiotemporal Evolution Mechanisms of Drought in the Poyang Lake Basin

Poyang Lake, the largest freshwater lake in China, is an important regional water resource and a landmark ecosystem. In recent years, it has experienced a period of prolonged drought. Using appropriate drought indices to describe the drought characteristics of the Poyang Lake Basin (PLB) is of great practical significance in the face of severe drought situations. This article explores the applicability of four drought indices (including the precipitation anomaly index (PJP), standardized precipitation index (SPI), China Z-index (CPZI), and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI)) based on historical facts. A systematic study was conducted on the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of meteorological drought in the PLB based on the optimal drought index. The results show that SPI is more suitable for the description of drought characteristics in the PLB. Meteorological droughts occur frequently in the summer and autumn in the PLB, with the frequency of mild drought being 17.29% and 16.88%, respectively. The impact range of severe drought or worse reached 22.19% and 28.33% of the entire basin, respectively. The probability of drought occurrence in the PLB shows an increasing trend in spring, while in most areas, it shows a decreasing trend in other seasons, with only a slight increase in the upper reaches of the Ganjiang River (UGR). One of the important factors influencing drought in the PLB is atmospheric circulation. The abnormal variation of the Western Pacific Subtropical High was one of the key factors contributing to the severe drought in the PLB in 2022. This study is based on a long-term series of meteorological data and selects the drought index for the PLB. It describes the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and evolution patterns of drought and investigates the developmental path and influencing factors of drought in typical years. This study provides a reliable scientific basis for similar watershed water resource management.

Quantitation of meteorological, hydrological and agricultural drought under climate change in the East River basin of south China

Documenting the joint probability of meteorological-hydrological, meteorological-agricultural, and hydrological-agricultural drought can be invaluable for understanding drought evolution under climate change in a high-diversity watershed of south China. Through constructing the edge and joint distribution functions of multi drought indices (SPEI, SPI, SSI, and SWI) based on SWAT and copula methods, we explored the evolution of multi droughts under climate change in the East River basin. During 1997–2017 and 2023–2099, we used logistic, generalized pareto, and normal distributions to construct edge distribution functions of SPEI, SPI, SWI, and SSI. For the four indices, the probability of slight drought increased with rcp2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, and it was higher than moderate drought. Also, Clayton, Frank, Gumbel, and Gaussian copula functions were used to construct joint distribution functions of SPEI and SSI, SPEI and SWI, SSI and SWI to quantify their interactions. During 1997–2017, the probability of slight drought was 26.15 to 41.06 %, and the return period changed from 3.8 to 2.4 years. The joint probability of meteorological-hydrological, meteorological-agricultural, and hydrological-agricultural drought in slightly was 24.4 to 31.32 %, 14.95 to 22.63 %, and 6.18 to 22.05 %, respectively. During 2023–2099, the joint probability of droughts in moderately was 3.76 to 14.19 %, and the return period was 7 to 26.6 years. Our results provide a quantitative assessment of single and joint probability of meteorological, hydrological and agricultural drought, which could be used to support watershed water resource management.

Analysis Of The Spatial And Temporal Variability Of Rainfall In The Kayanga-Anambé Hydrological Complex (Republic Of Guinea And Senegal)

The high rainfall variability observed especially from the 1970s has intensified the vulnerability of water resources in tropical watersheds. It resulted in the recurrence of extreme hydrological events – combined with the increase in temperature which increases evapotranspiration causing considerable water losses – but also in the "Sahelization" of Sudanian areas resulting in the migration of isohyets towards the south.This article studies recent spatial and temporal changes in rainfall in the Kayanga-Anambé complex, as well as their potential hydrological implications. The methodological approach is based on (i) checking the quality of data and filling gaps using the method of rainfall indices with the Regional Vector Method (RVM); and on (ii) the analysis of spatial and temporal variability of rainfall using PETITT stationarity test and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI).The evolution of rainfall in the basin is reflected in a fact specific to the intertropical zone, namely the variability of rainfall. This is marked by several sequences: a wet period between 1940 and 1967, followed by a long dry sequence which extends between the beginning of the 70s until the end of the 90s, and finally a slight resumption of the rainfall over the period 1993-2020. However, according to the outputs of global climate models ("Multi-model Ensemble"), the resumption of rainfall in the Kayanga basin will only be effective from 2060. This variability noted in the rains will induce a similar variability in the flows and agricultural production since they are largely dependent on it.

Seasonality and evaporation of water resources in Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed and Critical Zone Observatory, Southwestern Idaho, USA

AbstractThe Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed (RCEW) and Critical Zone Observatory (CZO), located south of the western Snake River Plain in the Intermountain West of the United States, is the site of over 60 years of research aimed at understanding integrated earth processes in a semi‐arid climate to aid sustainable use of environmental resources. Meteoric water lines (MWLs) are used to interpret hydrologic processes, though equilibrium and nonequilibrium processes affect the linear function and can reveal seasonal and climatological effects, necessitating the development of local meteoric water lines (LMWLs). At RCEW‐CZO, an RCEW LMWL was developed using non‐volume‐weighted, orthogonal regression with assumed error in both predictor and response variables from several years of precipitation (2015, 2017, 2019, 2020, and 2021) primarily at three different elevations (1203, 1585, and 2043 m). As most precipitation is evaporated or intercepted by vegetation in the driest months, an RCEW LMWL for groundwater recharge (RCEW LMWL‐GWR) was also developed using precipitation from the wettest months (November through April). The RCEW LMWL (δ2H = 7.41 × δ18O – 3.09) is different from the RCEW LMWL‐GWR (δ2H = 8.21 × δ18O + 9.95) and compares favorably to other LMWLs developed for the region and climate. Comparative surface, spring, and subsurface water datasets within the RCEW‐CZO are more similar to precipitation during the wettest months than dry months, illustrating that some semi‐arid hydrologic systems may most appropriately be compared to MWLs developed from precipitation only from the wettest season.

MAP ANALYSIS OF LAND USE IN KHILAU SUB-SUB WATERSHED, WAY BULOK SUB-WATERSHED, WAY SEKAMPUNG WATERSHED, LAMPUNG PROVINCE

An increase in population impacts conditions of forest, soil, and water resources in watersheds through land use change. One of the hydrological components in the watershed influenced by this change is the surface flow coefficient (C). This study aimed to analyze the land characteristics of the Khilau Sub-Sub Watershed, Bulok Sub-Watershed, Sekampung Watershed, Lampung Province. The research methods involved taking aerial photos and field observation with an application called ArcView GIS MAP as the research tool. The analysis results signify that the land use in the watershed was divided into 6 main types with a total area of 671.6776 Ha. The surface flow coefficient value (Ctotal) was 0.1412, which indicates that all rainwater falling into the watershed was well infiltrated into the soil so that the land use was categorized as good. It was found out that, with the use of the GIS application, the land use in the Khilau Sub-Sub Watershed comprises 6 main types, i.e. mixed gardens, forests, annuals, shrubs, settlements, and rice fields. The mixed garden type of land use has the highest coefficient (C) value of surface flow runoff, so it Therefore, the rainwater in the watershed area is well infiltrated into the soil so that it is safe to categorize the land use as good.

Collaborative optimal allocation of water resources and sewage discharge rights in watershed cities: considering equity among water sectors.

Water supply systems in watershed cities face challenges due to increasing water demand and arbitrary sewage discharge allocations. Previous studies have primarily focused on water resource allocation and sewage discharge rights, neglecting the intricate interactions between the two. This study introduces a novel approach by integrating sewage discharge rights into the watershed's water resource allocation mechanism. A multi-objective optimization model was developed, employing the Gini coefficient to balance the equitable and economic aspects across various water sectors. This model takes into account the distinct water demands and sewage discharge requirements of different sectors. The findings of this study are as follows: (a) the Gini coefficients for water demand allocation and sewage discharge rights allocation exhibit simultaneous optimization and display consistent trends; (b) when the importance of sewage discharge relative to other water users increases, the return on investment for domestic and industrial water use decreases, but the fairness of water distribution improves; (c) proper allocation of sewage discharge rights can effectively enhance the economic value of agricultural water use. Overall, this strategy has the potential to enhance both the equality and economic benefits of the water supply system while ensuring the sustainable utilization of water and sewage rights in the basin cities.

Effects of comprehensive landscape patterns on water quality and identification of key metrics thresholds causing its abrupt changes

Comprehensive landscape patterns influence water quality with multiple factors, complex processes, and scale dependence. However, studies identifying landscape thresholds causing abrupt water quality changes and characterizing the contribution of topography to water quality are still limited. Exploring the impact mechanisms of natural geographical and landscape characteristics on spatial and seasonal water quality variations is conducive to watershed water resource protection and ecosystem restoration. Based on water quality monitoring data of Minjiahe River in the typical headwater area of the upstream Dan River in China from 2019 to 2021, we employed redundancy analysis, partial redundancy analysis, and nonparametric change-point analysis to analyze the relationship between stream water quality and multi-spatial scale comprehensive landscape patterns, to obtain the interactive and independent contributions of different landscape categories at multi-spatial scales on water quality, and to find the key landscape threshold leading to abrupt changes in water quality. Results showed that landscape configuration, landscape composition, and topographic factors collectively explain over 89.1% of water quality variation. Most seasonal variations in water quality were primarily caused by landscape configuration. The landscape composition was mainly responsible for the differences in water quality variations among spatial scales. The topographic factors made the least independent contribution and had a potential impact on overall water quality variation. In order to protect the water quality of streams, it is more reasonable to regulate the landscape at different scales. At the sub-catchment scale, interspersion and juxtaposition index (IJI) and landscape shape index (LSI) should be controlled below 82% and 22. At the 100 m riparian scale, farmland, urban land, IJI, and LSI should be controlled below 29%, 6.5%, 92%, and 26, respectively. Our results provide important guidance for optimizing landscape patterns and water conservation in the watershed.

Response of Runoff Change to Extreme Climate Evolution in a Typical Watershed of Karst Trough Valley, SW China

Identifying the response of runoff changes to extreme climate evolution was of great scientific significance for the rational regulation of watershed water resources and the prevention of hydrological disasters. However, the time–frequency response relationships were not clear. The Yinjiang River watershed, a typical watershed with karst trough valley areas, was chosen to identify the impact of different climatic driving factors on runoff changes from 1984 to 2015. Continuous wavelet transform (CWT), cross-wavelet transform (XWT), and wavelet coherence transform (WTC) were performed to study the response relationship and time–frequency effect between runoff changes and extreme climate change at different time scales. The main results showed that: (1) Twelve extreme climate indices (ECIs) were detected to have a significant impact on runoff changes, mainly on a 6-year time scale; (2) The R10 and Rx1day in extreme precipitation index and SU34.4 and TNx in the extreme temperature index were the main driving factors of runoff changes, which had relatively large impacts on runoff changes in high and low energy vibration regions. However, the remaining eight ECIs that passed the 0.05 confidence level showed relatively large impacts on runoff changes only in low energy vibration regions; (3) The transition of the interaction between ECIs and runoff changes in high and low time–frequency scales was related to the abrupt change characteristics of the ECIs. The correlation of abrupt change was an important reason for the emergence of highly correlated regions that trigger high and low energy vibrations; (4) As a whole, the extreme precipitation events were ahead of runoff changes at the high time–frequency scale and exhibited small lag effects at the low time–frequency scale, while extreme temperature events were mainly ahead of runoff changes. This study has effectively revealed the impact of climate factors at different scales on runoff changes, and provides a theoretical understanding for regulating and managing water resources in karst basins.

Paleohydrologic history of pluvial lake San Agustin, New Mexico: Tracking changing effective moisture in southwest North America through the last glacial transition

Paleoclimate records across the Intermountain West region of North America show significant regional variation in timing and magnitude of wet conditions that accompanied the last glacial-interglacial transition. To understand the climate controls on paleohydrologic change, well-dated records are needed across the region. The Plains of San Agustin (New Mexico, USA) is a closed-basin watershed of the American Southwest influenced by both winter westerly and summer North American Monsoon precipitation. The flat valley floors of the Plains contain lake and groundwater discharge deposits that record multiple periods of past wet climate. We present a record of hydroclimate for the past 26,000 years based on radiocarbon, U–Th series, and OSL dating of these deposits and stratigraphic correlation across the three sub-basins of the lake system. We find that two major lake oscillations occurred, coincident with the global Last Glacial Maximum (∼23–18 ka) and with Heinrich Stadial 1 (∼17–14 ka). The LGM lake cycle created a deep lake in the lowermost sub-basin, fed by marsh/lake overflow in the upper sub-basins. The Heinrich Stadial 1 wet interval attained the highest recorded lake level between ∼17.0 and 15.3 ka, merging the lower two sub-basins into one lake. Both lake cycles agree well in timing and magnitude with other lake-based records from the southwestern U.S., supporting previous interpretations that a south-shifted cool season storm track brought a dipole-like pattern of enhanced moisture to the southwest at the expense of drier conditions in the northwest during the LGM and deglaciation. A transition from lake to groundwater discharge conditions followed during the Bølling-Allerød (14.7–12.9 ka) across the study area. Wet meadows prevailed in the lower sub-basin during the Younger Dryas (12.9–11.7 ka), with marsh and open lake conditions in the upper and middle sub-basins, respectively. During the early Holocene, discrete wet intervals are recorded by ages for wet meadow deposits in all sub-basins with centennial-millennial frequency at 9.9, 8.8, 8.2 ka. These events agree well with other Intermountain West records showing wetter-than-present conditions prior to 8 ka. Two additional wet periods, centered at 6.8 and 5.4 ka, occurred during the driest known interval of the middle Holocene, and likely were partly supported in the Plains of San Agustin by summer moisture associated with the peak strength of the North American Monsoon. Our record highlights that both winter and summer moisture support water resources in New Mexico watersheds.

River ecological flow early warning forecasting using baseflow separation and machine learning in the Jiaojiang River Basin, Southeast China

Ecological flow early warning is crucial for the rational management of watershed water resources. However, determining of accurate ecological flow threshold and choosing the appropriate forecasting model are challenging tasks. In this study, we initially developed a baseflow separation and Tennant method-based technique for calculating ecological river flow. Then an ecological flow early warning model was created using the machine learning technique based on distributed gradient enhancement framework (LightGBM). Finally, we utilized the framework of Shapley Additive Planning (SHAP) to explain how various hydrometeorological factors affect the variations in ecological flow conditions. The Jiaojiang River basin in southeast China is selected as the study area, and the hydrological stations in upstream of Baizhiao (BZA) and Shaduan (SD) are chosen for key analysis. The results of these applications show that the monthly baseflow frequency of the river ecological flow conditions of the two stations in the dry season is 20 % (7.49 m3/s) and 30 % (4.79 m3/s), respectively. The ecological flow level early warning forecasting accuracy is close to 90 % in the BZA and SD stations during dry and wet seasons. The variations of ecological flow are most affected by evaporation and base flow index. The results of this study can serve as a strong basis for the effective allocation and utilization of locally available water resources.