Water Resources In Central Asia Research Articles

The Influence of Snow Cover Variability on the Runoff in Syr Darya Headwater Catchments between 2000 and 2022 Based on the Analysis of Remote Sensing Time Series

Climate change is affecting the snow cover conditions on a global scale, leading to changes in the extent and duration of snow cover as well as variations in the start and end of snow cover seasons. These changes can have a paramount impact on runoff and water availability, especially in catchments that are characterized by nival runoff regimes, e.g., the Syr Darya in Central Asia. This time series analyses of daily MODIS snow cover products and in situ data from hydrological stations for the time series from 2000 through 2022 reveal the influences of changing snow cover on the runoff regime. All catchments showed a decrease in spring snow cover duration of −0.53 to −0.73 days per year over the 22-year period. Catchments located farther west are generally characterized by longer snow cover duration and experience a stronger decreasing trend. Runoff timing was found to be influenced by late winter and spring snow cover duration, pointing towards earlier snowmelt in most of the regions, which affects the runoff in some tributaries of the river. The results of this study indicate that the decreasing snow cover duration trends lead to an earlier runoff, which demands more coordinated water resource management in the Syr Darya catchment. Further research is recommended to understand the implications of snow cover dynamics on water resources in Central Asia, crucial for agriculture and hydropower production.

International Experience in the Use of Transboundary Water Resources and Issues of its Regulation

The article analyzes the ecological problems of regulating the use of transboundary waters and its protection. The contents of the documents accepted by the international community were studied. At the same time, the state environmental policy of the Republic of Uzbekistan regarding transboundary waters and the tasks it has set for itself have been studied, and suggestions for their improvement have been given. The methods used in this research were interviews and surveys where interviews were conducted with key stakeholders, including government officials, local activists, and the general public in Uzbekistan. Use surveys to collect quantitative data about public perception and awareness regarding changing views about the value of water. In summary, effective international cooperation, clear legal regulations, the establishment of a monitoring commission, and comprehensive protection measures are essential for the sustainable management of transboundary water resources in Central Asia.

Ensuring climate resilience in Central Asia through the establishment of a water management education program

Abstract This article is devoted to the issues of sustainable development in the Central Asia region. The authors have performed an analysis of the state of rational use of water resources. Ensuring climate resilience in water management in Central Asia is a critical challenge in today's world. This problem is of interest in connection with its possible impact on the sustainable development of the region. The purpose of this work is to analyze the current state of the rational use of water resources in Central Asia to identify ways to optimize their management. The study used a qualitative and quantitative analysis of data on water use collected from various sources, as well as a comparison method to assess the effectiveness of existing water management practices in the region. The authors revealed that the unbalanced distribution and inefficient use of water resources in Central Asia led to environmental and socio-economic problems. It has also been found that the existing mechanisms for managing water resources are not effective enough.

Regional Climate Effects of Irrigation under Central Asia Warming by 2.0 °C

There has been a severe shortage of water resources in Central Asia and agriculture has been highly dependent on irrigation because of the scarce precipitation in the croplands. Central Asia is also experiencing climate warming in the context of global warming; however, few studies have focused on changes in the amount of irrigation in Central Asia under future climate warming and their regional climate effects. In this study, we adopted the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to design three types of experiments: historical experiments (Exp01); warming experiments using future driving fields (Exp02); and warming experiments that involved increasing the surface energy (Exp03). In each type of experiment, two experiments (considering and not considering irrigation) were carried out. We analyzed the regional climate effects of irrigation under the warming of Central Asia by 2.0 °C through determining the differences between the two types of warming experiments and the historical experiments. For surface variables (irrigation amount; sensible heat flux; latent heat flux; and surface air temperature), the changes (relative to Exp01) in Exp03 were thought to be reasonable. For precipitation, the changes (relative to Exp01) in Exp02 were thought to be reasonable. The main conclusions were as follows: in Central Asia, after warming by 2.0 °C, the irrigation amount increased by 10–20%; in the irrigated croplands of Central Asia, the irrigation-caused increases (decreases) in latent heat flux (sensible heat flux) further expanded; and then the irrigation-caused decreases in surface air temperature also became enhanced; during the irrigation period, the irrigation-caused increases in precipitation in the mid-latitude mountainous areas were reduced. This study also showed that, in the WRF model, the warming experiments caused by driving fields were not suitable to simulate the changes in irrigation amount affected by climate warming.

Orta Asya'da Sınır Ötesi Su Kaynaklarının Paylaşım Sorunları

ABSTRACT 
 
 The main water resources in Central Asia are the two major transboundary rivers of Syr Darya and Amu Darya. Territorial distribution status of shared waters from these rivers and increasing demand for water in both upper reaches and downstream countries lead to competition between water use for hydropower generation and for irrigation contributing to serious consequences for the economy of these countries. This also raises the political tension between the upper reaches and downstream countries. Therefore, efficient and sustainable management of water resources in the region remains highly important for economic, political and environmental cooperation between the Central Asian Republics. When Central Asian Republics gained their independence after the breakup of the old Soviet Union, the problem of sharing the transboundary water resources aggravated due to the collapse of the old single centralized model of management. The essence of the problems with sharing transboundary waters in the region is that the goals for water use in the region predominantly differ from one country to another. This contradiction is rooted in differing national interests of the republics’ water consumption priorities, with some countries more dependent on irrigated agriculture while hydropower generation is more priority for others. This paper attempts to look at the issues with joint water use, management of transboundary water resources by Central Asian countries and points out the main causes of the problem.

Hydrological Forecasting under Climate Variability Using Modeling and Earth Observations in the Naryn River Basin, Kyrgyzstan

The availability of water resources in Central Asia depends greatly on snow accumulation in the mountains of Tien-Shan and Pamir. It is important to precisely forecast water availability as it is shared by several countries and has a transboundary context. The impact of climate change in this region requires improving the quality of hydrological forecasts in the Naryn river basin. This is especially true for the growing season due to the unpredictable climate behavior. A real-time monitoring and forecasting system based on hydrological watershed models is widely used for forecast monitoring. The study’s main objective is to simulate hydrological forecasts for three different hydrological stations (Uch-Terek, Naryn, and Big-Naryn) located in the Naryn river basin, the main water formation area of the Syrdarya River. We used the MODSNOW model to generate statistical forecast models. The model simulates the hydrological cycle using standard meteorological data, discharge data, and remote sensing data based on the MODIS snow cover area. As for the forecast at the monthly scale, the model considers the snow cover conditions at separate elevation zones. The operation of a watershed model includes the effects of climate change on river dynamics, especially snowfall and its melting processes in different altitude zones of the Naryn river basin. The linear regression models were produced for monthly and yearly hydrological forecasts. The linear regression shows R2 values of 0.81, 0.75, and 0.77 (Uch-Terek, Naryn, and Big-Naryn, respectively). The correlation between discharge and snow cover at various elevation zones was used to examine the relationship between snow cover and the elevation of the study. The best correlation was in May, June, and July for the elevation ranging from 1000–1500 m in station Uch-Terek, and 1500–3500 m in stations Naryn and Big-Naryn. The best correlation was in June: 0.87; 0.76; 0.84, and May for the elevation ranging from 1000–3500 m in station Uch-Terek, and 2000–3000 m in stations Naryn and Big-Naryn. Hydrological forecast modeling in this study aims to provide helpful information to improve our under-standing that the snow cover is the central aspect of water accumulation.

Recent Changes in Glaciers in the Northern Tien Shan, Central Asia

The Tien Shan is regarded as the “Water tower of Central Asia,” being a solid reservoir of freshwater resources and also a natural and early warning indicator of climate change. Research on glaciers is important for the sustainable development and management of water resources in Central Asia. This study investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of glaciers in the northern Tien Shan from 1990 to 2015 using multi-source remote sensing and meteorological data. The results showed that the total area and volume of glaciers in the northern Tien Shan exhibited negative trends, decreasing by 456.43 km2 (16.08%) and 26.14 km3 (16.38%), respectively. The reduction in the total glacier area exhibited an accelerating trend, decreasing by 0.60%/a before 2000, but by 0.71%/a after 2000. Glaciers in the outer northern Tien Shan region, with areas < 2 km2 showed the greatest shrinkage, especially those in the northeastern and southwestern regions. All aspects in the northern Tien Shan exhibited negative trends in the glacier area, especially in the east–west aspects (shrinkage of 24.74–38.37%). Regarding altitude, the termini of glaciers rose continuously from 1990 to 2015, particularly for glaciers below 3700 m, with a total area decrease of 30.37%, and the lower altitude of the glaciers showed a higher area decrease.

DEVELOPMENT OF COOPERATION IN THE FIELD OF WATER DIPLOMACY IN CENTRAL ASIA

The transboundary nature and limited nature of water resources in Central Asia makes water a key resource that largely determines the further development of the region. Climate change, population growth and increased demand for water have mixed effects on the water, food and energy security of the countries of Central Asia. That is why cooperation in these areas is a common concern to ensure stability in the region.

Glacier Runoff Variation Since 1981 in the Upper Naryn River Catchments, Central Tien Shan

Water resources in Central Asia strongly depend on glaciers, which in turn adjust their size in response to climate variations. We investigate glacier runoff in the period 1981–2019 in the upper Naryn basin, Kyrgyzstan. The basins contain more than 1,000 glaciers, which cover a total area of 776 km2. We model the mass balance and runoff contribution of all glaciers with a simplified energy balance melt model and distributed accumulation model driven by ERA5 LAND re-analysis data for the time period of 1981–2019. The results are evaluated against discharge records, satellite-derived snow cover, stake readings from individual glaciers, and geodetic mass balances. Modelled glacier volume decreased by approximately 6.7 km3 or 14%, and the majority of the mass loss took place from 1996 until 2019. The decreasing trend is the result of increasingly negative summer mass balances whereas winter mass balances show no substantial trend. Analysis of the discharge data suggests an increasing runoff for the past two decades, which is, however only partly reflected in an increase of glacier melt. Moreover, the strongest increase in discharge is observed in winter, suggesting either a prolonged melting period and/or increased groundwater discharge. The average runoff from the glacierized areas in summer months (June to August) constitutes approximately 23% of the total contributions to the basin’s runoff. The results highlight the strong regional variability in glacier-climate interactions in Central Asia.

Konflikt wokół zapory Rogun jako przykład sporów o zasoby wodne w Azji Centralnej

Water scarcity is an area of disputes between many states. Generally, these conflicts occur as a result of competition for water resources. They are especially visible in underdeveloped regions, such as Africa or the Middle East. Central Asia, the five republics established after the collapse of the USSR, is also an area exposed to conflicts. An example of such conflict can be the construction of the Rogun dam on Vakhsh river in Tajikistan. The project caused a lot of controversy and further construction fueled them even more. The aim of the paper is to present the conflict over the Rogun dam on the Vakhsh river in Tajikistan as an example of a conflict over water resources in Central Asia. The article presents the genesis and essence of the dispute, as well as attempts to resolve the conflict.

Regulatory Initiatives of Central Asian Countries in Addressing Transboundary Water Issues

After the collapse of the USSR the Central Asian countries found themselves facing serious regional challenges that hinder constructive interstate cooperation. Among such challenges the problem of transboundary water resources should be highlighted. The lack of a coordinated policy for regulating water flows continues to put the Central Asian countries in a vulnerable position, negatively affecting their national security, socio-economic development and the environmental situation in the region. Throughout their sovereign development the countries of the region tried to solve transboundary water problems by combining external and internal mechanisms. However, a solution to the problem that would meet the national interests of all interested countries was not found.Recently the ruling elites of the Central Asian countries have intensified the process of solving the water problem showing political will. They put forward a number of initiatives. A big role in reviving this issue belongs to Uzbekistan which has opened a new milestone in the settlement of water and energy conflicts in the region. Uzbekistan demonstrates a desire to solve the water problem constructively at the regional level. In this regard the proposals of the President of Uzbekistan Sh.Mirziyoyev acquired great importance in solving the transboundary water problems of Central Asia. In 2018 Sh. Mirziyoyev put forward the initiative to adopt a Regional program for the rational use of water resources in Central Asia. Shortly before that he expressed a desire to participate in the implementation of joint hydropower projects with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Analyzing the current shifts in the water and energy issue we can talk about increasing trust between the countries of Central Asia and the beginning of the formation of a new regional interstate model of relations on the distribution of transboundary water resources.

Rapidly declining surface and terrestrial water resources in Central Asia driven by socio-economic and climatic changes

A systematic understanding of the dynamics of surface water resources and terrestrial water storage (TWS) is extremely important for human survival in Central Asia (CA) and maintaining the balance of regional ecosystems. Although several remote sensing products have been used to map surface water, the spatial resolution of some of them (hundreds of meters) is not sufficient to identify small surface water bodies, with monitoring data only being available for a few years or less. Thus, long-term continuous monitoring of surface water dynamics has not yet been achieved. To address this, we used all available Landsat images and the adjacent-years interpolation method to describe the dynamics of surface water in CA with a 30-m spatial resolution during 1990–2019. Subsequently, based on the multiple stepwise regression model, the climatic changes and human activity drivers affecting the surface water were systematically assessed. The permanent surface water areas (PSWA) of downstream countries with water scarcity decreased over time. The PSWA of Kazakhstan continues to decline at a maximum rate of 1189 km2/a. Additionally, human activities represented by population and reservoir areas are the dominant drivers affecting surface water resources in CA. The relationship between TWS and PSWA in CA and the constraints on social and economic development provided by the available water resources are discussed. The findings demonstrate that more than one-third of the croplands in CA are suffering from declining SWAs and TWS. The water crisis in CA has intensified, and the spatial mismatch between water and land resources is expected to remain one of the biggest challenges for future social and economic development in CA. Our dataset and findings provide high-precision surface water dynamics data that could be valuable for mitigating the water crisis in CA and provide a current scientific reference for achieving the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals.

Central Asian rivers under climate change: Impacts assessment in eight representative catchments

Study regionEight river catchments within Central Asia. Study focusThe limited amount of water resources is already an issue in the Central Asian region, and climate change may be crucial for water availability and development of countries in the region. This study investigates potential climate change impacts on water resources in Central Asia to the end of the century by focusing on eight river catchments with diverse natural conditions located in different countries. The eco-hydrological model SWIM was setup, calibrated and validated for all selected catchments under study. Scenarios from five bias-corrected GCMs under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 were used to drive the hydrological model. New hydrological insights for the regionThe results show an increase of mean annual temperature in all catchments for both RCPs to the end of the century. The projected changes in annual precipitation indicate a clear trend to increase in the Zhabay and to decrease in the Murghab catchments, and for other catchments, they were smaller.The projected trends for river discharge are similar to those of precipitation, with an increase in the north and decrease in the south of the study region. Seasonal changes are characterized by a shift in the peak of river discharge up to one month, shortage of snow accumulation period, and reduction of discharge in summer months.

Historical Aspects Of The Environmental Policy Strategy In The Field Of Sustainable Development Of The Southern Aral Sea Region At The Present Stage

The article discusses the issues related to the solution of problems to improve the situation in the Aral Sea basin, which also included measures to save the Aral Sea region. In order to strengthen mutual understanding and trust between all Central Asian countries and establish openness in relations, the Republic of Uzbekistan considers it necessary to undertake joint efforts to find mutually beneficial solutions to resolve the issue of rational and fair use of water resources in Central Asia.

Factor in the of transboundary water resources in Central Asia

This article provides information on an invairable ponds, basins and networks. There is also information about the water networks flowing across the borders of the world and the purposes and issues of international agreements, treaties, mutual agreements on its. In addition, there is a talk of a positive development of relations between the Central Asian states on this issue.

Effectiveness of rainwater irrigation in agricultural crops in the context of water resources

The article provides information on systemic reforms in the organization of efficient use of water resources in Uzbekistan and published by the International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage, as well as the interim results of scientific work carried out at TIIAME to address this issue. Extreme scarcity of water resources in Central Asia, the area of irrigated lands in the world, water resources used in agriculture, their economical use, economical irrigation technologies used to increase efficiency, the scope of sprinkler technology and the benefits of sprinkler irrigation. and technical specifications are given.

Sustainable management and efficient use of water resources in the conditions of economic modernization

This article presents the problems in water resources management and offers and recommendations for overcoming them, and the acuteness of the problem of water resources in Central Asia is aimed at preventing the crisis associated with the growing shortage of water in the countries of the region. Ensuring sustainable management and efficient use of water resources in the context of modernization of the economy is becoming one of the key issues in the sustainable economic development of all regions and countries in the world.

Analysis on impacts of hydro-climatic changes and human activities on available water changes in Central Asia

Water resources in Central Asia are very scarce due to natural and anthropogenic impacts. Water shortages have been a major factor hampering the socio-economic development of Central Asia. Exploring internal interactions among climate change, human activities and terrestrial hydrological cycles will help to improve the management of water resources in Central Asia. In this paper, hydro-climatic and anthropogenic data for the period 2003–2016 from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were used to analyze the influence of natural factors and human activities on changes of available water (AWC). The terrestrial water storage derived from GRACE and GLDAS remarkably declined in 2008, due to a serious drought, but increased thereafter. The AWC positively responded to the vegetation index, evapotranspiration, potential evapotranspiration and air temperature at a lag of 0–1 month, but to precipitation at a lag of 2–3 months. Results of correlation analysis with a spatial square moving window indicated that forests, grasses, croplands and water areas presented significantly positive correlations with AWC, while barren areas and urban areas were negatively correlated with AWC. According to the Boruta algorithm and the Random Forest model, natural factors, namely precipitation, evapotranspiration and potential evapotranspiration, were major factors for AWC in the whole Central Asia. Human activities had direct and indirect impacts on AWC. With the development of society and economy, croplands and urban areas gradually increased, resulting in a rising demand for water withdrawals for agriculture irrigation and industry. The unreasonable utilization and exploitation of water resources led to vegetation degradation and ecosystem deterioration, which would worsen the shortage of water resources in arid regions of Central Asia.

Spatial variations of hydrochemistry and stable isotopes in mountainous river water from the Central Asian headwaters of the Tajikistan Pamirs

Water resources in Central Asia from the mountainous headwater catchments is changing due to the shrinkage of glaciers in the Tian Shan and Pamir mountain systems. In order to predict future changes in water quality, it is crucial to understand what factors are governing the spatial variations of water chemistry and hydrological processes in mountainous headwater catchments. In this study, water chemistry including major ions and stable isotopes in the headwaters of major Tajikistan rivers was studied. Results showed that Tajikistan river water had an alkaline pH value (mean: 8.2) and total dissolved solids (mean: 368.5mg/L) were higher than the global average value. Ca2+, Na+, HCO3−, and SO42− in the rivers were the most abundant cations and anions, controlled by the rock weathering process and evaporation-crystallization processes. The hydrochemical facies of river water was dominated by Ca-HCO3 (71.7%) and exhibited spatial heterogeneity, which was related to the lithologic compositions and water source across Tajikistan. A significant negative correlation of river water δ18O with elevation was observed with a vertical lapse rate of 0.17‰/100 m. The more negative δ18O values in rivers from eastern Tajikistan were scattered in the lower left corner of the δ18O-δ2H plot, implying that the rivers were primarily supplied by snow/glacier meltwater because of the substantial number of glaciers and high elevation mountain in eastern regions. The drinking and irrigation suitability from ionic compositions revealed that the water quality of Tajikistan rivers was naturally good, though some sites posed a safety concern. These findings can provide new insights into sustainable management of water quality in the climatically and lithologically distinct segments of headwater regions in the Tajikistan Pamirs.

Особенности трансграничных рек Центральной Азии (на примере Кыргызстана)

The article describes the current situation of water resources in Central Asia (on the example of Kyrgyzstan) which recently caused a number of national and international meetings, consultations, and conflicts. The issue becomes even more acute when they are of a transboundary nature. In this regard, it is necessary to implement an integrated approach in the management of water and energy resources of transboundary rivers. The transboundary rivers are one of the main features and prerequisites for the efforts integration of the countries in Central Asia as the basis of the region’s water-free and environment-friendly use of water and land. For the countries of the region, the problem of water use in the basins of transboundary rivers has much in common and at the same time there are differences due to the natural, climatic, business, economic and political conditions of each country. Environmental security and the economies of Central Asian countries are closely related to the nature of water use and concerted actions on joint management of transboundary rivers. A noticeable decrease in their water resource potential as a result of increasing competition for water, the pollution of water sources are considered as serious obstacles to the sustainable development of the region.