Water-related Risks Research Articles

Upwind moisture supply increases risk to water security

Transboundary assessments of water security typically adopt an ‘upstream’ perspective, focusing on hazards and vulnerabilities occurring within a given hydrological basin. However, as the moisture that provides precipitation in the hydrological basin probably originates ‘upwind’, hazards and vulnerabilities potentially altering the moisture supply can be overlooked. Here we perform a global assessment of risk to water security in 379 hydrological basins accounting for upwind vulnerabilities and hazards from limited governance and environmental performance. We compare this upwind assessment with the more conventional approach focusing upstream. We find that accounting for upwind moisture supply increases the assessed risk to water security. The upwind perspective results in 32,900 km3 yr−1 of water requirements (that is, the specific water needs of vegetation for their development) under very high risk, compared with 20,500 km3 yr−1 under the upstream perspective. This study pinpoints the need to account for upwind moisture dependencies in global water-related risk assessments.

Evaluating water-related health risks in East and Central Asian Islamic Nations using predictive models (2020–2030)

This paper presents a thorough evaluation of health outcomes linked to water-related challenges in Islamic nations across East Asia and Central Asia from 2020 to 2030. It has been examined carefully that the trajectory of deaths and disability-adjusted life years associated with unsafe water sources, lack of sanitation, and absence of handwashing facilities is showing a potential rise in negative health impacts due to water pollution. The direct health influences of water-related problems are thoughtful. The increase in deaths and DALYs due to poor water quality and sanitation leads to a higher occurrence of waterborne diseases such as cholera, diarrhea, and dysentery. These conditions not only cause instant health disasters but also subsidize to long-term health issues which include chronic gastrointestinal disorders and malnutrition that is particularly among susceptible populations like children and the elderly. Employing various predictive models including autoregressive integrated moving average, exponential smoothing, support vector machines, and neural networks. The study evaluates their predictive capabilities by using mean absolute percentage error. Support vector machines is found to be the most accurate in forecasting deaths and disability-adjusted life years which is outperforming autoregressive integrated moving average, exponential smoothing, and neural networks. This research aims to inform stakeholders by providing insights into effective strategies for improving water resource management and public health interventions in the targeted regions.

Supporting decision-making processes in the assessment of water-related risks: a review of models and methods

Supporting decision-making processes in the assessment of water-related risks: a review of models and methods

Water Accounting

The urgent solutions required to avoid the increasingly frequent floods and droughts and many other issues regarding water access and management made water a subject that has attracted the attention of many – as they did with accounting professionals. Since businesses are among the largest consumers of freshwater worldwide, corporate engagement with water issues is required to safeguard the organization’s license to operate. Corporate Water Accounting then allows companies to determine the impacts of their water use and discharges on communities and ecosystems, evaluate their water-related material risks, track the effects of changes in their water management practices, and credibly report them to their stakeholders. Therefore, this theoretical essay addresses water issues within the accounting field by recognizing three interrelated approaches that drive corporate water accounting implementation - Water Risk, Water Resources Management, and Water Reporting. We acknowledge its concepts, some useful tools, and its most concerning challenges while tracing its current state, especially in Brazil, and our future expectations for water accounting development. Furthermore, based on the theoretical contributions discussed, we point out some challenges managers face and future research opportunities. We expect more accounting professionals and researchers to engage with corporate water accounting to overcome the gaps that challenge the field's development.

Preface: The 5th International Conference of Water Resources Development and Environmental Protection (ICWRDEP 2023)

The 5th International Conference on Water Resources Development and Environmental Protection 2023 (ICWRDEP 2023) was successfully conducted using a hybrid approach on September 23rd, 2023, at Universitas Brawijaya in Malang, East Java, Indonesia. ICWRDEP has maintained its biennial schedule, an ongoing tradition since the middle of 2015.The Water Resources Engineering Department - Faculty of Engineering - Universitas Brawijaya organized the ICWRDEP 2023 in cooperation with the Ministry of Public Works and Housings of Indonesia, Miyazaki University in Japan, and the Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, India. The conference topics are River Engineering and Management, Coastal Engineering and Management, Environmental Engineering and Sanitation, Water-Related Disaster Risk Reduction, Water Resources Engineering and Management, and Water-related to Civil, Architectural Engineering. Through the presentation of papers and discussion, the conference provides a platform for researchers, engineers, and academicians to meet and share ideas, achievements, and experiences. This international event is essential in promoting and encouraging practitioners to apply the new concept of water resource development and techniques and enhancing knowledge and understanding with the required specifications of analysis, design, and construction of any engineering concept.We want to convey our deepest gratitude to the Rector of Universitas Brawijaya, the Dean of Engineering Faculty, Keynote Speakers Arie Setiadi Moerwanto, Ph.D from Ministry of Public Works & Housing, Republic of Indonesia, Prof. Keisuke Murakami from Miyazaki University, Japan, Prof. Deepak Khare from Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, India, Prof. Donny Harisuseno from Universitas Brawijaya, Indonesia, International Advisory Board members, organizing committee, and all participants.The Proceedings of the IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science feature original research papers stemming from the presentations at ICWRDEP 2023. Experts in relevant fields reviewed all manuscripts submitted to the Proceedings ICWRDEP 2023. We appreciate all of the reviewer’s time and thoughtful comments. Their reviews, we believe, aided in improving the scientific quality of the papers presented.We are looking forward to the 6th ICWRDEP in 2025. We expect more experts and scholars worldwide to attend this international conference.Malang, September 23rd, 2023Universitas BrawijayaIndonesiaList of Committees, Documentation are available in the pdf.

An approach to the financial stakes of water security faced by water and sanitation services in France

Water supply and sanitation (WSS) utilities in many countries are increasingly faced with pressing water risks which include the risk of "water shortages (includ- ing droughts), water excess (including floods), inadequate water quality mainly due to pollution, as well as the risk of undermining the resilience of freshwater systems (rivers, lakes, aquifers)" (OECD, 2013). These risks are exacerbated by climate change which increases the magnitude and frequency of extreme events. These developments, as well as the financial constraints on the services (limited capacity to increase the price of water/sanitation in an inflationary context and strong constraints on post-covid public finances) are all elements that must be ad- dressed to ensure the sustainability and resilience of the services in an environment now marked by threatened water security. This paper firstly presents an inventory of drinking water and collective sanitation assets in France. It identifies renewal needs as well as investment gaps thus underlining the magnitude of the infrastruc- ture related challenges that the sector needs to address to ensure the sustainability and quality of water and sanitation services. In addition, this paper includes ele- ments for evaluating the broader cost of water security. Indeed, in a context where climate change exacerbates water risks and encourages improving the resilience of water and sanitation services, the financial issues related to the proper management of assets cannot be limited to the sole issue of grey infrastructure renewal. It is also necessary to assess the financial challenges of water security through the manage- ment of water-related risks such as droughts, floods, and the preservation of aquatic environments. Thus, an assessment of environmental costs and damages generated by water and sanitation services is also provided to complete the analysis.

Participatory analysis of water-related conflict risks in complex adaptive systems – the case of the Inner Niger Delta in Mali

ABSTRACT To avoid negative societal implications from water management actions, the complex interrelations between water and conflict need to be understood. Assessment of such links in complex adaptive systems, characterized by various factors which mutually influence each other, is challenging. This paper explores how the use of participatory methods can support the identification of water-related conflict risks in one such complex adaptive system: the Inner Niger Delta in Mali. We find that participatory analysis not only facilitated the identification of systemic risks in a complex adaptive system, but also shapes the perceptions of these interlinkages.

A New Approach towards a User-Driven Coastal Climate Service to Enhance Climate Resilience in European Cities

Coastal climate services play a crucial role in developing customised climate information for diverse end-users and stakeholders. To build climate-resilient societies, decision-makers should be empowered through easy access to powerful tools that enable timely adaptation to future and ongoing hazards. For this reason, fit-for-purpose climate services are needed to conduct accurate historical characterisation and projections for interpretative studies on climate- and water-related risks at the local coastal scale. The EU-funded SCORE project (Smart Control of Climate Resilience in European Coastal Cities) utilises climate and marine services for the development of smart technologies that support nature-based solutions to address specific concerns, including rising sea levels, coastal erosion, and coastal flooding due to extreme weather events. As part of the SCORE project, decision-makers will be able to address climate change-related coastal effects in their own cities through novel participatory approaches (Coastal City Living Labs—CCLLs). As part of this framework, this work (i) discusses the main requirements for the identification of fit-for-purpose coastal climate services for local-scale impact studies in European coastal cities based on CCLL requests and prior knowledge and (ii) provides relevant parameters and features that fulfil the users’ needs.

Water-related deterioration risk assessment for sustainable conservation of heritage buildings in the Forbidden City, China

A suitable hygrothermal environment is imperative for sustainably conserving movable and immovable cultural heritage. This paper proposes a combined method for quantitatively assessing water-related deterioration risks in heritage buildings, validated employing the Forbidden City in China, a UNESCO World Heritage site. The approach emphasizes combining hygrothermal coupled transfer simulation with conventional environmental monitoring for systematic risk assessments. Key findings include identifying predominant causes of year-round deteriorations of salt weathering, freeze–thaw damage, microorganism growth, and physical cracking. Secondly, it underscores the persistent dampness at the bottom, stemming from capillary rising in building foundations, rendering the present environment unsuitable for the conservation of single-story heritage buildings. Lastly, in the Forbidden City, significant deteriorations manifest just a few millimeters or centimeters beneath the surfaces of brick walls and floors. Suggested measures include reducing shallow groundwater and enhancing airtightness. This study establishes a scientific framework for deterioration risk assessment and sustainable cultural heritage conservation.

Environmental and Occupational Factors Associated with Leptospirosis: A Systematic Review

BackgroundLeptospirosis is a neglected emerging zoonotic disease with a profound public health impact worldwide with higher burden of disease in resource-poor countries. The environmental and occupational exposures contribute to human and animal transmission, but the interaction was less explored. A deeper understanding of the critical environmental and occupational drivers in different contexts will provide useful information for disease control and prevention measures. ObjectiveThis review aimed to summarize the potential environmental and occupational risk factors associated with leptospirosis infection. MethodsFour databases (Scopus, Web of Science, Ovid MEDLINE, EBSCOhost) were searched for articles published from 2012 to 2021. Eligible articles were assessed using a checklist for assessing the quality of the studies. The quality of the articles was assessed based on the laboratory diagnosis approach and statistical analysis method. ResultsA total of 32 studies were included in this systematic review. Water-related risk factors such as natural water as the primary water source (AOR 1.8–18.28), water-related recreational activities (AOR 2.36–10.45), flood exposure (AOR 1.54–6.04), contact with mud (AOR 1.57–4.58) and stagnant water (AOR 2.79–6.42) were associated with increased risk of leptospirosis. Infrastructural deficiencies such as un-plastered house walls and thatched houses presented a higher risk (AOR 2.71–5.17). Living in low-lying areas (AOR 1.58–3.74), on clay loam soil (OR 2.72), agricultural land (OR 2.09), and near rubber tree plantations (AOR 11.65) is associated with higher risk of leptospirosis. Contact with rats (AOR 1.4–3.5), livestock (AOR 1.3–10.4), and pigs (AOR 1.54–7.9) is associated with an increased risk of leptospirosis. Outdoor workers (AOR 1.95–3.95) and slaughterhouse workers (AOR 5.1–7.5) have higher risk of leptospirosis. ConclusionThe environmental and occupational components related to water, infrastructure, landscape, agriculture, and exposed animals play an essential role in leptospirosis transmission. The magnitude of those risk factors differs with geographical region, climate factor, urbanization and population growth, and the country’s socioeconomic status.

Building Quality-Oriented Societies in Asia Through Effective Water-Related Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation

Asia-Pacific countries are facing growing risks from water-related disasters that are being exacerbated by climate change, urbanization, population growth, and development activities. Effective disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA) are crucial for building quality-oriented societies. This study proposes approaches to DRR and CCA by examining cases and approaches from a special session at the 9th International Conference on Flood Management. This session was held to follow up on the Kumamoto Declaration adopted at the 4th Asia-Pacific Water Summit in Kumamoto in April 2022, and demonstrated the determination of heads of states and governments to resolve water issues in the region. The recent disaster cases in Pakistan, the Republic of Korea, the Philippines, and Indonesia highlight the unprecedented scale of water-related disasters. These countries have developed integrated structural and non-structural measures as fundamental solutions, including planning supported by scientific evidence, institutional reforms, and capacity building. However, there is a need to prioritize and strengthen urban planning and land use regulations for effective DRR and CCA. The Kumamoto Declaration emphasized three critical approaches: science and technology, finance, and governance, while the session clarified the effectiveness of these approaches. Leveraging science and technology can help societies develop and implement effective strategies to mitigate climate risks and safeguard vulnerable populations and ecosystems. However, there is a significant investment gap for flood protection, estimated at USD 64 billion per year. Thus, financial arrangements must be established. Meanwhile, good governance is essential for collaboration between local bodies, national governments, and international assistance. Such governance can leverage green infrastructure as a key solution and promote disaster resilience that is both locally driven and nationally relevant.

Outdated regulations and institutional vulnerability: Hydrological risk management in Málaga's municipal planning

Málaga, a Mediterranean region, is increasingly prone to water-related risks, a situation compounded by the impacts of climate change. Urban development practices over the past decades have significantly exacerbated these risks. Our study offers a novel, scientifically derived methodology to evaluate municipal capabilities in managing hydrological risks through urban planning instruments. Leveraging a checklist applied through multicriteria analysis, we scrutinized the integration of theoretical and regulatory frameworks relating to hydrological risks in numerous municipalities. Our findings highlight a glaring deficiency in local Disaster Risk Reduction strategies in alignment with the Sendai Framework. Additionally, there's minimal incorporation of natural risk analysis and mapping into planning instruments. Our results spotlight Málaga's high institutional vulnerability due to its limited capacity in hydrological risk management, underlining the pressing necessity for land use policies informed by risk assessments and prioritizing citizen safety. This study significantly contributes to future urban planning initiatives, offering a roadmap toward more resilient communities amid escalating hydrological risks.

Does water risk increase corporate debt financing capacity? Evidence from listed companies in high-water sensitive industries in China

Water-related risks are the focus of existing social concerns. Although academic and practical circles are aware of the existence of water risk and its potential harm, its economic consequences have not been quantitatively discussed from the perspective of enterprises. We empirically test the impact of water risk on debt financing ability using A-share listed companies in China's highly water-sensitive industries as samples. Water risk is found to significantly reduce the scale and increase the cost of debt financing, particularly for nonstate-owned companies. Institutional investor research can reduce the impact of water risk on the scale and cost of debt financing. On the one hand, we expand the relevant research on the debt financing ability of enterprises. On the other hand, we also explore the influence of water risk on enterprise management. Our conclusions provide an important reference for water risk and environmental management in enterprises.

The potential for nature-based solutions to combat the freshwater biodiversity crisis

Enthusiasm for and investments in nature-based solutions (NBS) as sustainable strategies for climate adaptation and infrastructure development is building among governments, the scientific community, and engineering practitioners. This is particularly true for water security and water-related risks. In a freshwater context, NBS may provide much-needed “win-wins” for society and the environment that could benefit imperiled freshwater biodiversity. Such conservation benefits are urgently needed given the ongoing freshwater biodiversity crisis, with declines in freshwater species and their habitats occurring at more than twice the rate of marine or terrestrial systems. However, for NBS to make meaningful contributions to safeguarding freshwater biodiversity, clear links must be established between NBS applications and priorities for conservation. In this paper, we link common water-related NBS to six priority actions for freshwater life established by the conservation science n community, and highlight priority research and knowledge that will be necessary to bring NBS to bear on the freshwater biodiversity crisis. In particular, we illustrate how NBS can play a direct role in restoring degraded aquatic and floodplain ecosystems, enhancing in-stream water quality, and improving hydrological connectivity among freshwater ecosystems. System-level monitoring is needed to ensure that freshwater NBS deliver on their promised benefits for ecosystems and species.

A tug of war between centralization and decentralization: the co-evolution of urban governance and water risks in Guwahati, India

Intermediate cities in Asia and Africa house more than 60% of the world’s urban population. More than 54% of the people here face high levels of water stress and are increasingly vulnerable to water-related risks such as floods, limited access to safe drinking water and water pollution. These urban water risks are complex outcomes of climate change, land use changes, governance failures, and social inequities. This study examines the co-evolution of three water risks and governance responses through the case of Guwahati, India. Guwahati, on the Brahmaputra River in the Northeast of India, serves as a case of an intermediate city to demonstrate changes in water risk governance trends. We focus on studying the connected governance responses to changes in three interrelated water risks, i.e., domestic water supply, urban floods, and river pollution. The shifts in the socio-political structures for these risks are assessed by combining historical institutionalism with multi-level perspective theory. The results show that despite the growing diversity of actors and devolution of responsibilities in cities to mitigate water risks, there is an ongoing tug-of-war between centralized and decentralized modes of decision-making. Contrary to the recommendations for decentralized urban governance, the trend is currently tugging towards a centralized decision-making mode. However, when differences arise between the local and national, local actors within their limited frames of action manage to circumnavigate nationally dictated mandates to fit local needs.

Mixed D-vine copula-based conditional quantile model for stochastic monthly streamflow simulation

Copula functions have been widely used in stochastic simulation and prediction of streamflow. However, existing models are usually limited to single two-dimensional or three-dimensional copulas with the same bivariate block for all months. To address this limitation, this study developed a mixed D-vine copula-based conditional quantile model that can capture temporal correlations. This model can generate streamflow by selecting different historical streamflow variables as the conditions for different months and by exploiting the conditional quantile functions of streamflows in different months with mixed D-vine copulas. The up-to-down sequential method, which couples the maximum weight approach with the Akaike information criteria and the maximum likelihood approach, was used to determine the structures of multivariate D-vine copulas. The developed model was used in a case study to synthesize the monthly streamflow at the Tangnaihai hydrological station, the inflow control station of the Longyangxia Reservoir in the Yellow River Basin. The results showed that the developed model outperformed the commonly used bivariate copula model in terms of the performance in simulating the seasonality and interannual variability of streamflow. This model provides useful information for water-related natural hazard risk assessment and integrated water resources management and utilization.

An approach for prioritising environmental, social and governance (ESG) water-related risks for the mining industry: The case of Chile

Mining projects interact with diverse concurrent environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks inherent to the local hosting context. These risks known as "situated risks'' usually have a relevant influence on the dynamics between operations, environment and communities. The appropriate assessment of these risks requires a multi-disciplinary approach. This research aims to propose a novel ESG-W-RISK approach to prioritise water-related ESG risks areas for the mining industry at a national scale. In contrast to similar approaches at a global scale, it uses tailored indicators and more detailed datasets for the country, which are selected based on an initial analysis of the national context. Indicators are assembled to create risk maps. Mining locations are overlaid with the risk maps to identify mining areas of high risk. ESG-W-RISK aims to support decision-makers by helping them identify the relevant water-related risk areas, and ultimately it can provide insights for developing country-level mitigation strategies. ESG-W-RISK was applied to Chile, a country with an important mining sector that faces relevant water-related challenges. The results show that 43% of current mines and 44% of future projects are in high-risk areas, and 93% of both mines and future projects are in areas of high or very high risk of water scarcity. Particularly, the risk levels in the Chile's lithium and copper mining areas are more concerning than the previously published global-scale ESG risk levels.

Race, Ethnicity, and the Case for Intersectional Water Security

Abstract This Forum article reports on a meta-review of more than 19,000 published works on water security, of which less than 1 percent explicitly focus on race or ethnicity. This is deeply concerning, because it indicates that race and ethnicity—crucial factors that affect the provision of safe, reliable water—continue to be ignored in academic and policy literatures. In response to this finding the Forum calls for building intersectional water security frameworks that recognize how empirical drivers of social and environmental inequality vary both within and across groups. Intersectional frameworks of water security can retain policy focus on the key material concerns regarding access, safety, and the distribution of water-related risks. They can also explicitly incorporate issues of race and ethnicity alongside other vectors of inequality to address key, overlooked concerns of water security.

The estimation of young water fraction based on isotopic signals: challenges and recommendations

Young water fraction (Fyw) is defined as the fraction of water in a stream with a transit time of less than 2–3 months. Fyw is a metric used to quantify the proportion of precipitation input converted into the runoff in the form of fast flow, which provides new insights for characterizing the mechanisms of water storage and release, understanding the time-scale of ecohydrological processes and indicating water-related risks. However, Fyw has been advanced for a relatively short time, and the research on its applicability conditions and main drivers is still ongoing. Studies estimating Fyw are still very few and this index has not been reported in many landscapes and climate backgrounds, limiting its further application in hydrological studies. On the basis of summarizing the progresses of Fyw in previous studies, this paper provides a preliminary analysis of the potential uncertainties in the Fyw estimation, which can be due to temporal trends in the isotopic composition of precipitation, uneven sampling interval of stream water, and complex hydrological systems. Finally, this paper provides some recommendations for the optimization of the sampling design and the methods used for the Fyw estimation.

Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrological Regimes in the Congo River Basin

Surface water resources are essential for a wide range of human activities, such as municipal water supply, fishing, navigation, irrigation, and hydropower. Their regime is also linked to environmental sustainability, water-related risks, human health, and various ecosystem services. Global warming is expected to modify surface water availability, quality, and distribution and therefore affect water use productivity as well as the incidence of water-related risks. Thus, it is important for communities to plan and adapt to the potential impacts of climate change. The Congo River Basin, home to 75 million people, is subject to recurrent flood and drought events, which are expected to worsen as a result of climate change. This study aims to assess future modifications of the hydrological regime of the Congo River and the socio–economic impacts of these projected changes for three future periods: 2011–2041, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100. A Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model of the Congo River Basin was developed, calibrated, and validated using daily rainfall observations combined with daily time series of precipitation, temperatures, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed derived from the WFDEI (Watch Forced Era Interim) reanalysis data set. The outputs of ten Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX-AFRICA) were statistically downscaled to obtain future climate time series, considering two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP8.5 and RCP4.5. The calibrated model was used to assess changes in streamflow in all reaches of the Congo River. Results suggest relative changes ranging from −31.8% to +9.2% under RCP4.5 and from −42.5% to +55.5% under RCP 8.5. Larger relative changes occur in the most upstream reaches of the network. Results also point to an overall decrease in discharge in the center and southern parts of the basin and increases in the northwestern and southeastern parts of the basin under both emission scenarios, with RCP8.5 leading to the most severe changes. River discharge is likely to decrease significantly, with potential consequences for agriculture, hydropower production, and water availability for human and ecological systems.