The degradation and failure of the urban water supply network may lead to serious safety hazards, including pipe breaks, water supply interruptions, water resource losses, and contaminant intrusions. The risk evaluation of water supply pipeline failure in a distribution network is a challenging task, because most of the available data cannot fully reflect pipeline failure events and many of the mechanisms still cannot be fully understood. Therefore, a predictive model is urgently needed to assess pipeline failure risk based on available data. In this paper, based on the traditional risk assessment theory, seven main factors affecting pipeline failure are selected and scored, and then a pipeline failure model is established by using the particle swarm optimization (PSO) neural network. The model uses the neural network training of historical data to evaluate the failure of the water supply pipeline, and the PSO is used to optimize the neural network to effectively improve the training time and accuracy. The model error and correlation coefficient are 0.003 and 0.987, respectively. The proposed model can be used as a powerful support tool to assist infrastructure managers and pipeline maintainers in their plans and decision-making.
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