Water Energy Food Research Articles

Identifying the Complexity of the Food-Energy-Water Nexus Based on Emergy Analysis in Crop Production Systems of China

To elucidate the food-energy-water (FEW) nexus, the paper proposes a framework for multifunctional development objectives within the context of CPSs, integrating emergy analysis and the coupled coordination model. The article’s primary focus is on the utilization of blue and green water in the cultivation of a variety of food crops and the acquisition of purchased energy. The paper was evaluated according to three key indicators: stability, development, and sustainability. Furthermore, a quantitative evaluation of the trade-offs among the FEW nexus and its constituent sub-nexuses was conducted over the period from 2000 to 2022. The study revealed that China has witnessed an expansion in its total CPS inputs, with renewable inputs accounting for 32.89% and an average annual input-output ratio of 37.98%. The annual emergy values for food, energy, and water resources were 6.85 × 1023 Sej, 1.43 × 1023 Sej, and 7.91 × 1022 Sej, respectively. The annual growth rates were 2.16%, 2.11%, and 0.77%, respectively. The CPS exhibits an average proportion of green and blue water resources of 64.37% and 35.63%, respectively. The coupling coordination of the FEW nexus demonstrates a transition between years from mild dysfunctional recession to quality coordinated development, with the coordinated use of FEW resources increasing for maize, largely maintained for rice, and decreasing for wheat, soybean, and potato. The objective of this study is to provide differentiated strategies for regional food conservation and sustainable development worldwide.

Assessing the Impacts of Nature-Based Solutions on Ecosystem Services: A Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystems Nexus Approach in the Nima River Sub-Basin (Colombia)

Forest ecosystem services are critical for maintaining ecological balance and supporting human well-being from different perspectives. However, rapid land use changes driven by agricultural expansion, urbanization, and industrial activities have significantly altered forest ecosystems, degrading the services they provide. We here conduct an ecosystem service assessment through biophysical and economic estimates for a multipurpose Andean water sub-basin in western Colombia. We compare a business as usual (BAU) with a forest nature-based solution (NbS) scenario focused on forest landscape restoration. The research employed participatory methods for the NbS selection and economic valuation techniques to evaluate water flow regulation, water provisioning, water purification, and food provisioning services. Results show that the NbS scenario yielded a net positive economic impact across most evaluated ecosystem services, with notable trade-offs. Specifically, the NbS scenario increased water retention by 2.9% compared to BAU. Water flow regulation demonstrated the most substantial economic benefit, increasing by EUR 11.39 million/year in the NbS scenario. On the other hand, the food provisioning service presented a reduction of EUR 3.2 million/year in the NbS scenario. These findings highlight the potential of forest-based NbS to address the Water–Energy–Food–Ecosystem (WEFE) nexus challenges. The study’s outcomes provide valuable insights for policymakers and practitioners, supporting the development of Payment for Ecosystem Services schemes and integrating ecosystem service valuation into land use planning and decision-making processes.

Cooling Effectiveness of the Sustainable Cooling Solution for Cattle: Case Study in Poland

Recently, the dairy sector has been ever more affected by global warming. This study aimed to test a novel conductive cooling system for cattle that was successfully implemented and evaluated under summer thermally challenging weather conditions in Poland. The system consists mainly of the chiller, tank, and chilled water-driven mattress, designed to prioritize animal well-being. The experimental evaluation was carried out on three Friesian dry cows, housed on different types of bedding—commercial water mattress, straw, and cooling water mattress—and supplied with water at 10 °C (day) and 16 °C (night). The cooling water mattress’ surface temperature was twice as low as that of the commercial water mattress. The animal’s thermal comfort was assessed with physiological and behavioral reactions. The cooling effect on animals’ bodies was demonstrated with a lower reticulorumen temperature of the cooled cow (p < 0.05) than the reference ones. The local effect of cooling was proved with an 8 °C-lower skin temperature after the cow’s resting period. The presented study opens a new research direction toward dairy cattle’s welfare, sustainability, and the food–energy–water nexus, based on potential energy and water savings.

Nexus Framing of Sustainability Issues: Feasibility, Synergies, and Trade-Offs in Terms of Water-Energy-Food

Multisectoral integration has been at the core of sustainability debates and is continuously rearticulated through different concepts. Following the 2007–2008 financial, food, and energy crises, a new concept, the water–energy–food nexus, gained prominence to identify trade-offs and synergies between water, energy, and food systems and guide the development of cross-sectoral policies. The nexus is essentially a systems-based perspective that explicitly recognizes these three systems as both interconnected and interdependent, and thus integrated approaches are required that move beyond sectoral, policy, and disciplinary silos. The nexus is also a political process, one in which the interplay of different types of power, as well as the actors wielding them, is not just a procedurally technical one. This tension between the nexus as a complex system and the nexus as a political process constitutes the core debating idea, in terms of feasibility, methods, and theory, in this article.

Coupling Relationships and Driving Mechanisms of Water–Energy–Food in China from the Perspective of Supply and Demand Security

The rapid increase in population and economy, coupled with accelerated urbanization, is placing immense pressure on the water–energy–food (WEF) system. In this context, the water–energy–food nexus framework has emerged, recognizing the interdependencies and interactions among water, energy, and food systems, with the aim of optimizing resource management through cross-sectoral collaboration to promote sustainable development. Understanding the spatio-temporal differentiation patterns of the WEF nexus and elucidating the driving mechanisms behind changes in their coupling relationships is essential. This knowledge is crucial for ensuring the security of each subsystem and enhancing the overall sustainability of interconnected systems through coordinated efforts. To address these challenges, this study first established evaluation indicators for water, energy, and food security to quantify their levels and spatio-temporal dynamics. Subsequently, the degrees of coupling coordination within the WEF nexus were calculated. Finally, the WEF nexus’s spatial correlations were analyzed by using a spatial autocorrelation model. Spatial econometric models then identified key factors affecting its coordination. The results revealed significant spatial heterogeneity in water, energy, and food security across mainland China’s provinces. From 2002 to 2022, water security improved substantially in 87% of the provinces, while energy security began to improve in the eastern regions following a phase of high consumption. Food security saw significant enhancements, particularly in Inner Mongolia and the northeastern provinces. The overall coupling coordination of the WEF nexus improved across 30 provinces, progressing toward primary coordination. However, Henan and Anhui provinces experienced fluctuations in WEF nexus coordination. Spatial correlation analysis showed upward trends and increased clustering in WEF nexus coordination. Factors such as economic development and population positively influenced coordination, while economic agglomeration, education, and effective irrigation area had negative effects. This study elucidates the complex interconnections and key influencing factors within the WEF nexus, providing a reference framework and practical recommendations for equitable resource management.

Snow runoff modelling in the upper Indus River Basin and its implication to energy water food nexus

Pakistan's hydropower sector depends heavily on glacier and snowmelt water that originates from the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). It is expected that climate change may adversely affect future hydropower generation capacity as a result of fluctuations in the magnitude, seasonality and hydrological extremes of the Indus River flow. This study employed the Degree-Day Snowmelt Runoff Model alongside the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer MODIS and daily ground-based hydro-meteorological data to model the snowmelt runoff response in the UIB. The results indicated a significant increase in the annual and seasonal runoff under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, suggesting more water availability for hydropower and irrigation. By the end of the century, annual river flow is projected to increase by 28 % to 69 % under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. Consequently, rise in annual river flow is expected to increase the electricity generation capacity of future hydropower projects by 93 % to 167 % under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The construction of robust multipurpose dams may potentially reduce flood risks in downstream areas during peak flows, while also supplying water for hydropower generation and irrigation during low flows. This, in turn, may enhance the resilience of both the hydropower and agriculture sectors in the face of climate change.

The Coupling Coordination Degree and Its Driving Factors for Water–Energy–Food Resources in the Yellow River Irrigation Area of Shandong Province

Water resources, energy, and food are essential for the development of society, and they are strongly interdependent. The coupling and coordination relationships of the water–energy–food (WEF) system are important for regional resource security and high-quality development. The Yellow River Irrigation Area in Shandong Province, China, is a grain production base and has a substantial impact on national food security. To examine the water, energy, and food subsystem dynamics in this area, an evaluation system for the WEF system was established. A comprehensive weighting method based on game theory was employed to determine index weights. TOPSIS was used to assess the development level of the WEF system. A coupling coordination degree model was used to analyze the evolution of the coupling coordination degree of the WEF system from 2000 to 2020, and a GWR model was constructed to explore the spatial heterogeneity of its driving factors. The findings indicated that the development level of the WEF system in the study area was moderate, with a gradual upward trend. The coupling coordination degree fluctuated between 0.62 and 0.739. The GWR model revealed that temperature had an overall negative effect on the coupling coordination degree, with the greatest impact on the central irrigation area; the slope and NDVI had a negative effect, with increasing intensity from the southwest to the northeast; and rainfall had an overall positive effect, with the greatest impact on the irrigation area near the estuary in the northeast. Overall, the building area ratio had a negative effect on the coupling coordination degree, with exceptions in some areas. These research outcomes provide theoretical support for sustainable agricultural development in the Yellow River irrigation areas of Shandong Province and methodological reference data for studying collaborative resource utilization in irrigation regions.

Examining Trends in the Food–Energy–Water Security Nexus and Its Relationships with Human Development, Population Growth, and Conflict

Abundant and accessible food, energy, and water are essential to the functioning of human societies and individual health and happiness. However, growing populations, intensifying climate change, and violent instability undermine resource security. We used data from the recently updated Pardee RAND Food–Energy–Water (FEW) Index and the INFORM risk model to assess global and regional trends in resource security and relationships with the Human Development Index (HDI), internal conflict risk, and population growth. Our analysis finds that resource security has modestly improved with an average global FEW Index improvement of 2.61%, but this figure masks significant regional disparities, with several countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia regressing in terms of food and water security. We observe continued high correlations between HDI and the FEW Index (0.8664) and also find the FEW Index to be highly correlated with national income per capita (0.6547). We also find that at a global level, there is a significant negative association between trends in the FEW Index and population growth (−0.4724) during the study period, suggesting that a growing proportion of the global population is experiencing resource insecurity. Finally, our analysis suggests that several resource-insecure countries are also conflict-prone and these nations tended to do worse over the study period than similarly resource-insecure states that were internally stable.

Evaluation and prediction of water-energy-food nexus under land use changes in the Yellow River Basin, China

Scientific understanding of the changes in the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus is crucial for regional development. As the spatial foundation of human activities, land use plays a pivotal role in shaping WEF nexus relations. However, little research has fully explored the impacts of land use changes within the WEF nexus from the human activities perspective. In this study, a novel theoretical framework was developed according to the logic flow “human activities-land use–WEF nexus”. Based on the LUI, the WEF score, and the ICCD between land use changes and WEF, the WEF score of various scenarios was forecasted using the ARIMA model. The findings revealed the various land use structures and LUI among nine provinces, with more intensive land use in lower reaches. During two decades, a discernible increase in both WEF system scores and ICCD was found in YRB. The WEF scores of all provinces had surpassed the threshold of 0.3 for two decades, and Inner Mongolia grew the fastest from 0.223 to 0.524. The ICCD of nine provinces evolved with fluctuations, from an imminent unbalanced or near coordination level in 2000 to primary coordination or moderate coordination level in 2020. The optimal land use scenarios varied across provinces, attributed to factors such as resource and environmental constraints (Qinghai and Sichuan), specialized agriculture or industry (Gansu, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia), differentiated zonal characteristics (Shaanxi and Shanxi), and rapid industrialization and urbanization (Henan and Shandong). To attain sustainable development within the YRB, it is imperative to formulate differentiated land use strategies in each province, and universal strategies should also be established for each land use type.

Response of remote sensing-based climatic indicators to drought conditions during El Niño events and implications for water–food–energy nexus

ABSTRACT Hydrometeorological extremes, such as droughts, are a major threat to society and can have extensive damaging effects. In this study, daily rainfall estimates from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) quasi-global rainfall dataset were used to calculate the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) for the assessment of meteorological drought in Southern Province, Zambia. Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) imagery (250 m resolution) from MODIS-Terra, for the period 2000–2021, were used to derive the Standardised Vegetation Index (SVI) in order to assess agricultural drought. The Mann–Kendall trend test and Sen's slope were used to determine the spatial-temporal trends and their magnitudes. This study demonstrated that the droughts of the Southern Province of Zambia can be classified into two categories: regressive and aggressive droughts. Regressive droughts are associated with moderate to strong El Niño events. Although El Niño events undermine water security, regressive droughts tend to result in resilient vegetation owing to residue soil moisture. In contrast, aggressive droughts are characterised by an increase in drought intensity as the season progresses. Water security prospects in the region should focus on climate-smart approaches, such as managed aquifer recharge, to ensure water availability even under extreme drought conditions.

System dynamic model of water, energy and food nexus for policy implementation

In this study, a spatiotemporal disaggregated simulation model was developed based on water–food–energy (WFE) nexus approach to assess water and food supply security considering ecosystem provisioning services. The main components of the developed model in this study (SD-WFE model) are population, water, agriculture, and energy modules. The model, which was developed using system dynamics (SD) approach, was utilized to simulate effectiveness of sectoral municipal, industrial, and agricultural water and energy consumption management and environmental protection policies in improving ecosystem provisioning services during a 20-year period. Through sensitivity analysis utilizing the Monte Carlo model, the study addresses the formulation of sustainable water resource policies across four main categories: water demand management, water supply management, food resource management, and energy resource demand management. Additionally, it explores the integration of policies within an optimal framework. The simulation of proposed solutions revealed that a combination of water demand management and food resource management yielded the most promising outcome. Specifically, the recommended solution entails enhancing water irrigation efficiency by 18% through the expansion of pressurized irrigation network coverage, adjusting cropping patterns by 14%, reducing agricultural product losses by 8% via improved food supply management, minimizing food demand by 9% due to reduced food consumption losses, and achieving an annual 10% increase in crop performance. These selected policies form the foundation for sustainable water resource management strategies.

Research on the synergy of the water–energy–food composite system in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region

ABSTRACT Water, energy, and food are interdependent and mutually restrictive, and changes in any one resource may have an impact on the others. In order to promote the sustainable utilization of resources, it is important to study the synergy of the water–energy–food composite system (WEFCS). Taking the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region as an example, this study adopts the composite system synergy degree model to quantitatively measure the synergy degree of WEFCS from 2011 to 2021, then constructs an evolutionary model to identify the interactions between the subsystems, and finally analyzes the interactions dynamically by using the panel vector autoregression model. The results show that the WEFCS synergy level in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region is generally basic and shows low stability during the study period. Regional subsystems are more dependent than collaborative or competitive. Moreover, the regional water subsystem has a short-term positive impact on the energy subsystem, the energy subsystem has a short-term negative impact on the food subsystem, and the food subsystem has a delayed and complex influence on the water and energy subsystems, with the water subsystem being particularly affected. This study provides a decision-making basis for policymakers to optimize resource allocation.

The water–energy–food–ecosystem nexus in North Africa dryland farming: a multi-criteria analysis of climate-resilient innovations in Morocco

Smallholder farmers, who mostly engage in low-value agriculture in the drylands of Northern Africa, were the first to have felt the effects of climate change, with threats to their livelihoods and food security. The increasing costs of agricultural production, poor water and energy infrastructure, loss of agricultural land due to urban expansion, fragmented resource management, and unsustainable management practices all contribute to this vulnerability to climate change. This highlights the urgent need for innovative practices in farming systems. Within the framework of the water–energy–food–ecosystem nexus, this paper explores innovative practices in dryland farming systems, by assessing their impact on water, energy, food, and ecosystem through stakeholder perception. In this work, we aim to present a systems approach for assessing the resilience of the water–energy–food–ecosystem nexus in arid and semiarid regions. By using a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) approach, the study—which focuses on the Fès–Meknès region in Morocco—involves local actors to help researchers identify the key variables in order to assist farmers in their adaptation to climate change. The findings revealed different priorities between farmers and other stakeholders regarding the adoption of agricultural innovations. Farmers prioritize innovations that guarantee higher profitability and more market opportunities, such as integrating olive trees with cereal crops, by highlighting the importance of sustainable income sources. Meanwhile, stakeholders, such as researchers, engineers, government officials, and agribusiness entrepreneurs, prioritize innovations that emphasize high water use efficiency, which is crucial for the resilience of dryland farming areas: for instance, rainwater harvesting or the use of drought-resistant crop varieties that directly address the need for water conservation. But in doing so they are overlooking broader aspects within the water–energy–food–ecosystem nexus.

Role of women in the water–energy–food (WEF) nexus—challenges and opportunities

AbstractWater, food and energy are crucial for human survival and sustainable development, being interconnected through the water–energy–food (WEF) nexus. Despite extensive research, the significant roles women play in these sectors are often underappreciated. Women are vital in water management, enhancing resource management, water quality and access, particularly in rural areas. In agriculture, they make up a large proportion of the workforce, boosting productivity, promoting sustainable farming practices and ensuring food security. Their deep knowledge of traditional food systems, coupled with their caregiving roles, contributes to providing nutritious and culturally appropriate diets. In the energy sector, women are key advocates for sustainable solutions and grassroots adoption of renewable energy technologies. Recognizing gender equality and empowering women are essential for maximizing their potential in the WEF nexus. Implementing gender‐responsive policies, inclusive decision‐making processes, and investing in education and skills training can significantly enhance women's roles in sustainable management. Empowered women drive innovation and transformative change, leading to more resilient and inclusive governance structures. This article emphasizes the importance of recognizing and supporting women's contributions within the WEF nexus, as this leads to more sustainable and equitable outcomes for all.

A bibliometric analysis of water footprint in China and abroad: research hotspots and frontiers

ABSTRACT The water footprint (WF) serves as a vital tool for quantifying human water resource consumption and is extensively utilized for water allocation analysis and management. This study employs CiteSpace to visualize literature from the Web of Science and the China National Knowledge Infrastructure from 2000 to 2023. Initially, quantitative analysis identified the characteristics of WF. Keyword analysis then elucidated the similarities, differences, and temporal-spatial changes in domestic and international research hot spots. Additionally, co-cited literature networks systematically explored research frontiers in the WF field. China and foreign countries share common research themes while maintaining distinct characteristics. Specifically, the research results show that: (1) Chinese researchers keep up with the pace of international research, and the research results in the field of WF are updated quickly; (2) environmental impact, water–food–energy nexus, and gray WF have attracted attention globally. The international research focus is on the renewal of WF methodology. In contrast, Chinese researchers are more inclined to use methods on water-saving strategies and driving factors. (3) The research frontier mainly focuses on the updating of WF assessment methods and sustainable water use.

A material flow or life cycle analysis perspective for the Water-Energy-Food nexus assessment of organisations? A comparative study

Nowadays, food production systems play a relevant role as the steady increase of global population and food demand. The water-energy-food (WEF) nexus is a suitable approach to tackle resources management associated with these three pillars recognizing synergies and trade-offs. Different approaches have been used in the literature to measure the WEF nexus, being material flow analysis (MFA) and life cycle assessment (LCA), two of the most proven methodologies. The MFA approach is based on the amount of resources consumed, while using the LCA perspective considers all flows of the system (LCA footprints approach) or considering only the flows associated with water, energy, and food pillars as the inventory data (WEF-LCA approach). This manuscript compares the three mentioned approaches to identify their strengths and weaknesses. To do this, a sample of 100 Spanish dairy farms is analysed, where a single WEF nexus index (WEFni) is obtained using Data Envelopment Analysis. Results show that only four farms achieved a WEFni equal to 100 in all approaches, while the main difference between them is the number and type of resources considered for calculating the WEF nexus, which could imply a partial identification of hotspots of food systems.

Water–Energy–Food Nexus in the Yellow River Basin of China under the Influence of Multiple Policies

The water–energy–food (WEF) nexus constitutes a pivotal aspect of regional ecological protection and high-quality development. The exertion of multiple WEF-related policies would engender both synergies and trade-offs within the WEF nexus. However, a quantified framework that integrates the impact of multiple WEF-related policies with conventional WEF nexus assessments and simulations is currently lacking. This study quantified the WEF nexus in the Yellow River basin (YRB) of China under the influence of multiple policies, calculated the current and future WEF scores under different policy combination scenarios using the improved entropy weight method, the auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and the linear optimization method. The results revealed the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, WEF overall scores and subsystem scores were substantially increased with spatial heterogeneity. (2) Scenario analysis indicated that policy implementation would generally accelerate WEF score improvements in each city, yet embracing all policies simultaneously was not optimal for each city. (3) The spatial heterogeneity in policy impacts was also found in the YRB, with higher trade-offs in the upper reaches of cities, and higher synergies in the middle and lower reaches of cities. To attain high-quality development within the YRB, the related policies’ implementation should consider the regional disparities and enhance the optimization of resource allocation across the regions.

Optimizing water-energy-food nexus index, CO2 emissions, and chemical pollutants under irrigation water salinity scenarios

The escalation of crises related to water quantity of quality, energy, food, and the environment has posed numerous challenges to sustainable development in the agricultural sector. This study seeks to establish an optimal and sustainable framework within the agricultural sector by meeting the objectives of the WEF (Water-Energy-Food) nexus index and environmental. For this, we individually optimized the objectives: maximizing the WEFN index (O1), minimizing CO2 emissions (O2), reducing chemical fertilizer consumption (O3), minimizing chemical pesticide usage (O4), and maximizing gross margin (O5) under various electrical conductivity (EC) scenarios (optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic) within the irrigation network of the Jiroft plain in Iran. In the second stage, we employed a Multi-Objective Programming (MOP) Model to attain these objectives using a weighted sum approach simultaneously. The results of the first stage revealed that under moderate and pessimistic EC irrigation water scenarios, significant alterations in the crop selection within the optimized models for O1 and O5 objectives occurred compared to the baseline scenario, which did not consider EC irrigation water. Specifically, in the pessimistic scenario with an EC irrigation water level of 2.25 ds/m, crops such as onions, tomatoes, and potatoes were replaced within the optimal cropping pattern by wheat, barley, and green-maize, leading to a notable decline in program efficiency. The results from the MOP optimization model indicated that in the pessimistic EC irrigation water scenario, the WEFN index, CO2 emissions, fertilizer consumption, pesticide consumption, and gross margin would change by approximately +12%, −48%, −28%, −8%, and −74%, respectively, compared to the baseline scenario. Consequently, an increase in EC irrigation water, despite improving environmental conditions, would substantially diminish economic profit. Thus, overlooking the impact of EC irrigation water in the WEF nexus analysis could result in misleading conclusions.

FEW questions, many answers: using machine learning to assess how students connect food–energy–water (FEW) concepts

There is growing support and interest in postsecondary interdisciplinary environmental education, which integrates concepts and disciplines in addition to providing varied perspectives. There is a need to assess student learning in these programs as well as rigorous evaluation of educational practices, especially of complex synthesis concepts. This work tests a text classification machine learning model as a tool to assess student systems thinking capabilities using two questions anchored by the Food-Energy-Water (FEW) Nexus phenomena by answering two questions (1) Can machine learning models be used to identify instructor-determined important concepts in student responses? (2) What do college students know about the interconnections between food, energy, and water, and how have students assimilated systems thinking into their constructed responses about FEW? Reported here is a broad range of model performances across 26 text classification models associated with two different assessment items, with model accuracy ranging from 0.755 to 0.992. Expert-like responses were infrequent in our dataset compared to responses providing simpler, incomplete explanations of the systems presented in the question. For those students moving from describing individual effects to multiple effects, their reasoning about the mechanism behind the system indicates advanced systems thinking ability. Specifically, students exhibit higher expertise in explaining changing water usage than discussing trade-offs for such changing usage. This research represents one of the first attempts to assess the links between foundational, discipline-specific concepts and systems thinking ability. These text classification approaches to scoring student FEW Nexus Constructed Responses (CR) indicate how these approaches can be used, in addition to several future research priorities for interdisciplinary, practice-based education research. Development of further complex question items using machine learning would allow evaluation of the relationship between foundational concept understanding and integration of those concepts as well as a more nuanced understanding of student comprehension of complex interdisciplinary concepts.

Tracking the Dynamics and Uncertainties of Soil Organic Carbon in Agricultural Soils Based on a Novel Robust Meta-Model Framework Using Multisource Data

Monitoring and estimating spatially resolved changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks are necessary for supporting national and international policies aimed at assisting land degradation neutrality and climate change mitigation, improving soil fertility and food production, maintaining water quality, and enhancing renewable energy and ecosystem services. In this work, we report on the development and application of a data-driven, quantile regression machine learning model to estimate and predict annual SOC stocks at plow depth under the variability of climate. The model enables the analysis of SOC content levels and respective probabilities of their occurrence as a function of exogenous parameters such as monthly temperature and precipitation and endogenous, decision-dependent parameters, which can be altered by land use practices. The estimated quantiles and their trends indicate the uncertainty ranges and the respective likelihoods of plausible SOC content. The model can be used as a reduced-form scenario generator of stochastic SOC scenarios. It can be integrated as a submodel in Integrated Assessment models with detailed land use sectors such as GLOBIOM to analyze costs and find optimal land management practices to sequester SOC and fulfill food–water–energy–-environmental NEXUS security goals.