Time Series Of Water Discharge Research Articles

Comparative study on stream flow prediction using the GMNN and wavelet-based GMNN

Abstract Flood flow forecasting is essential for mitigating damage in flood-prone areas all over the world. Advanced actions and methodology to optimize peak flow criteria can be adopted based on forecasted discharge information. This paper applied the models of the integrated wavelet, multilayer perceptron (MLP), time-delay neural network (TDNN), and gamma memory neural network (GMNN) to predict hourly river-level fluctuations, including storage rate change variable. Accordingly, the researchers initially used the discrete wavelet transform to decompose the water discharge time-series into low- and high-frequency components. After that, each component was separately predicted by using the MLP, TDNN, and GMNN models. The performance of the proposed models, namely wavelet–MLP, wavelet–TDNN, and wavelet–GMNN, was compared with that of single MLP, TDNN, and GMNN models. This analysis affirms that precision is better in the case of integrated models for forecasting river reach levels in the study region. Furthermore, multiple inputs–multiple outputs (MIMO) networks (MIMO-1 artificial neural network (ANN) and MIMO-2 ANN), along with multiple inputs–single output (MISO) ANN were employed for obtaining flow forecasts for several sections in a river basin. Model performances were also evaluated using the root mean squared error having less than 10% of the average mean value, with the coefficient of correlation being more than 0.91 and with the peak flow criteria showing the chances of flash floods being low to moderate with values not more than 0.15.

Improving Stage–Discharge Relation in The Mekong River Estuary by Remotely Sensed Long-Period Ocean Tides

Ocean tidal backwater reshapes the stage–discharge relation in the fluvial-to-marine transition zone at estuaries, rendering the cautious use of these data for hydrological studies. While a qualitative explanation is traditionally provided by examining a scatter plot of water discharge against water level, a quantitative assessment of long-period ocean tidal effect on the stage–discharge relation has been rarely investigated. This study analyzes the relationship among water level, water discharge, and ocean tidal height via their standardized forms in the Mekong Delta. We found that semiannual and annual components of ocean tides contribute significantly to the discrepancy between standardized water level and standardized water discharge time series. This reveals that the long-period ocean tides are the significant factors influencing the stage–discharge relation in the river delta, implying a potential of improving the relation as long as proper long-period ocean tidal components are taken into consideration. By isolating the short-period signals (i.e., less than 15 days) from land surface hydrology and ocean tides, better consistent stage–discharge relations are obtained, in terms of improving the Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) from ~0.4 to ~0.8 and from ~0.6 to ~0.9 for the stations closest to the estuary and at the Mekong Delta entrance, respectively. By incorporating the long-period ocean tidal height time series generated from a remotely sensed global ocean tide model into the stage–discharge relation, further refined stage–discharge relations are obtained with the PCC higher than 0.9 for all employed stations, suggesting the improvement of daily averaged water level and water discharge while ignoring the short-period intratidal variability. The remotely sensed global ocean tide model, OSU12, which contains annual and semiannual ocean tide components, is capable of generating accurate tidal height time series necessary for the partial recovery of the stage–discharge relation.

Artificial Neural Network and Multiple Linear Regression for Flood Prediction in Mohawk River, New York

This research introduces a hybrid model for forecasting river flood events with an example of the Mohawk River in New York. Time series analysis and artificial neural networks are combined for the explanation and forecasting of the daily water discharge using hydrogeological and climatic variables. A low pass filter (Kolmogorov–Zurbenko filter) is applied for the decomposition of the time series into different components (long, seasonal, and short-term components). For the prediction of the water discharge time series, each component has been described by applying the multiple linear regression models (MLR), and the artificial neural network (ANN) model. The MLR retains the advantage of the physical interpretation of the water discharge time series. We prove that time series decomposition is essential before the application of any model. Also, decomposition shows that the Mohawk River is affected by multiple time scale components that contribute to the hydrologic cycle of the included watersheds. Comparison of the models proves that the application of the ANN on the decomposed time series improves the accuracy of forecasting flood events. The hybrid model which consists of time series decomposition and artificial neural network leads to a forecasting up to 96% of the explanation for the water discharge time series.

Assessing natural and anthropogenic influences on water discharge and sediment load in the Yangtze River, China

The water discharge and sediment load of rivers are changing substantially under the impacts of climate change and human activities, becoming a hot issue in hydro-environmental research. In this study, the water discharge and sediment load in the mainstream and seven tributaries of the Yangtze River were investigated by using long-term hydro-meteorological data from 1953 to 2013. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and double mass curve (DMC) were used to detect trends and abrupt change-points in water discharge and sediment load and to quantify the effects of climate change and human activities on water discharge and sediment load. The results are as follows: (1) the water discharge showed a non-significant decreasing trend at most stations except Hukou station. Among these, water discharge at Dongting Lake and the Min River basin shows a significant decreasing trend with average rates of −13.93×108m3/year and −1.8×108m3/year (P<0.05), respectively. However, the sediment load exhibited a significant decreasing trend in all tributaries of the Yangtze River. (2) No significant abrupt change-points were detected in the time series of water discharge for all hydrological stations. In contrast, significant abrupt change-points were detected in sediment load, most of these changes appeared in the late 1980s. (3) The water discharge was mainly influenced by precipitation in the Yangtze River basin, whereas sediment load was mainly affected by climate change and human activities; the relative contribution ratios of human activities were above 70% for the Yangtze River. (4) The decrease of sediment load has directly impacted the lower Yangtze River and the delta region. These results will provide a reference for better resource management in the Yangtze River Basin.

Coral reefs chronically exposed to river sediment plumes in the southwestern Caribbean: Rosario Islands, Colombia

Politicians do not acknowledge the devastating impacts riverine sediments can have on healthy coral reef ecosystems during environmental debates in Caribbean countries. Therefore, regional and/or local decision makers do not implement the necessary measures to reduce fluvial sediment fluxes on coral reefs. The Magdalena River, the main contributor of continental fluxes into the Caribbean Sea, delivers water and sediment fluxes into the Rosario Islands National Park, an important marine protected area in the southwestern Caribbean. Until now, there is no scientific consensus on the presence of sediment fluxes from the Magdalena River in the coral reefs of the Rosario Islands. Our hypothesis is that high sediment and freshwater inputs from the Magdalena have been present at higher acute levels during the last decade than previously thought, and that these runoff pulses are not flashy. We use in-situ calibrated MODIS satellite images to capture the spatiotemporal variability of the distribution of suspended sediment over the coral reefs. Furthermore, geochemical data are analyzed to detect associated sedimentation rates and pollutant dispersion into the coastal zone. Results confirm that turbidity levels have been much higher than previous values presented by national environmental authorities on coral reefs off Colombia over the last decade. During the 2003–2013-period most of the Total Suspended Sediments (TSS) values witnessed in the sampled regions were above 10mg/l, a threshold value of turbidity for healthy coral reef waters. TSS concentrations throughout the analyzed time were up to 62.3mg/l. Plume pulses were more pronounced during wet seasons of La Niña events in 2002–2003, 2007–2008, and 2009–2010. Reconstructed time series of MODIS TSS indicates that coral reef waters were exposed to river plumes between 19.6 and 47.8% of the entire period of analysis (2000−2013). Further analyses of time series of water discharge and sediment load into the coastal zone during the last two decades show temporal increases in water discharge and sediment load of 28% and 48%, respectively. 210Pb dating results from two cores indicate sedimentation rates of ~0.75cm/y of continentally exported clastic muddy sediments that are being deposited on the carbonatic shelf. The cores contain sediments with heavy metals and their concentrations are frequently above the ecologically accepted standards. Overall, the last decade has witnessed stronger magnitudes in fluvial fluxes to the coastal region, which probably coincide with associated declines in healthy coral cover and water quality. Our results emphasize the importance of local stressors, such as runoff and dispersion of turbid plumes, as opposed to ocean warming, disease and hurricanes, which have played a larger role on other coral reefs in the Caribbean. Coral reef management across the southwestern Caribbean, a coastal region influenced by continental fluxes of numerous rivers flowing from the Andes, may only be effective when land and marine-based stressors are simultaneously mitigated.

Four decades of land-cover, land-use and hydroclimatology changes in the Itacaiúnas River watershed, southeastern Amazon

Long-term human-induced impacts have significantly changed the Amazonian landscape. The most dramatic land cover and land use (LCLU) changes began in the early 1970s with the establishment of the Trans-Amazon Highway and large government projects associated with the expansion of agricultural settlement and cattle ranching, which cleared significant tropical forest cover in the areas of new and accelerated human development. Taking the changes in the LCLU over the past four decades as a basis, this study aims to determine the consequences of land cover (forest and savanna) and land use (pasturelands, mining and urban) changes on the hydroclimatology of the Itacaiúnas River watershed area of the located in the southeastern Amazon region. We analyzed a multi-decadal Landsat dataset from 1973, 1984, 1994, 2004 and 2013 and a 40-yr time series of water discharge from the Itacaiúnas River, as well as air temperature and relative humidity data over this drainage area for the same period. We employed standard Landsat image processing techniques in conjunction with a geographic object-based image analysis and multi-resolution classification approach. With the goal of detecting possible long-term trends, non-parametric Mann–Kendall test was applied, based on a Sen slope estimator on a 40-yr annual PREC, TMED and RH time series, considering the spatial average of the entire watershed. In the 1970s, the region was entirely covered by forest (99%) and savanna (∼0.3%). Four decades later, only ∼48% of the tropical forest remains, while pasturelands occupy approximately 50% of the watershed area. Moreover, in protected areas, nearly 97% of the tropical forest remains conserved, while the forest cover of non-protected areas is quite fragmented and, consequently, unevenly distributed, covering an area of only 30%. Based on observational data analysis, there is evidence that the conversion of forest cover to extensive and homogeneous pasturelands was accompanied by systematic modifications to the hydroclimatology cycle of the Itacaiúnas watershed, thus highlighting drier environmental conditions due to a rise in the region's air temperature, a decrease in the relative humidity, and an increase in river discharge.

Multi-scale variability of water discharge and sediment load into the Bohai Sea from 1950 to 2011

This paper examines the changes in the time series of water discharge and sediment load of the Yellow River into the Bohai Sea. To determine the characteristics of abrupt changes and multi-scale periods of water discharge and sediment load, data from Lijin station were analyzed, and the resonance periods were then calculated. The Mann-Kendall test, order clustering, power-spectrum, and wavelet analysis were used to observe water discharge and sediment load into the sea over the last 62 years. The most significant abrupt change in water discharge into the sea occurred in 1985, and an abrupt change in sediment load happened in the same year. Significant decreases of 64.6% and 73.8% were observed in water discharge and sediment load, respectively, before 1985. More significant abrupt changes in water discharge and sediment load were observed in 1968 and 1996. The characteristics of water discharge and sediment load into the Bohai Sea show periodic oscillation at inter-annual and decadal scales. The main periods of water discharge are 9.14 years and 3.05 years, whereas the main periods of sediment load are 10.67 years, 4.27 years, and 2.78 years. The significant resonance periods between water discharge and sediment load are observed at the following temporal scales: 2.86 years, 4.44 years, and 13.33 years. Water discharge and sediment load started to decrease after 1970 and has decreased significantly since 1985 for several reasons. Firstly, the precipitation of the Yellow River drainage area has reduced since 1970. Secondly, large-scale human activities, such as the building of reservoirs and floodgates, have increased. Thirdly, water and soil conservation have taken effect since 1985.

An Efficient Prediction Model for Water Discharge in Schoharie Creek, NY

Flooding normally occurs during periods of excessive precipitation or thawing in the winter period (ice jam). Flooding is typically accompanied by an increase in river discharge. This paper presents a statistical model for the prediction and explanation of the water discharge time series using an example from the Schoharie Creek, New York (one of the principal tributaries of the Mohawk River). It is developed with a view to wider application in similar water basins. In this study a statistical methodology for the decomposition of the time series is used. The Kolmogorov-Zurbenko filter is used for the decomposition of the hydrological and climatic time series into the seasonal and the long and the short term component. We analyze the time series of the water discharge by using a summer and a winter model. The explanation of the water discharge has been improved up to 81%. The results show that as water discharge increases in the long term then the water table replenishes, and in the seasonal term it depletes. In the short term, the groundwater drops during the winter period, and it rises during the summer period. This methodology can be applied for the prediction of the water discharge at multiple sites.

Singular spectrum analysis and Fisher–Shannon analysis of spring flow time series: An application to Anjar Spring, Lebanon

In this study, the time dynamics of water flow from Anjar Spring was investigated, which is one of the major issuing springs in the central part of Lebanon. Likewise, many water sources in Lebanon, this spring has no continuous records for the discharge, and this would prevent the application of standard time series analysis tools. Furthermore, the highly nonstationary character of the series implies that suited methodologies can be employed to get insight into its dynamical features. Therefore, the Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and Fisher–Shannon (FS) method, which are useful methods to disclose dynamical features in noisy nonstationary time series with gaps, are jointly applied to analyze the Anjar Spring water flow series. The SSA revealed that the series can be considered as the superposition of meteo-climatic periodic components, low-frequency trend and noise-like high-frequency fluctuations. The FS method allowed to extract and to identify among all the SSA reconstructed components the long-term trend of the series. The long-term trend is characterized by higher Fisher Information Measure (FIM) and lower Shannon entropy, and thus, represents the main informative component of the whole series. Generally water discharge time series presents very complex time structure, therefore the joint application of the SSA and the FS method would be very useful in disclosing the main informative part of such kind of data series in the view of existing climatic variability and/or anthropogenic challenges.

Glacial Effects on Discharge and Sediment Load in the Subarctic Tanana River Basin, Alaska

About 5.6% of the drainage area of the Tanana River, Alaska, is covered by mountainous glacierized regions, and most of the other area by forests (51%) and wetlands (9%) with discontinuous permafrost. The water discharge and sediment load from glacierized and non-glacierized regions within the drainage area were represented by observed data of the proglacial Phelan Creek and the non-glacial Chena River, respectively, which are both the tributaries of the Tanana River and ultimately drain to the Yukon river basin. In the glacier-melt periods of 2007 and 2008, the runoff rate and suspended sediment concentration in Phelan Creek was 15 times and 36 times as high as those in the non-glacial Chena River, respectively. As a result, the mean sediment yield in the glacier-melt periods of 2007 and 2008 for Phelan Creek (24.8 t km−2 day−1) was estimated to be 640 times as high as that in the Chena River (0.039 t km−2 day−1). Hence, the glacierized regions were considered to be a major source of the fluvial sediment. In order to quantify the contribution of water discharge and sediment load from the glacierized regions to those of the Tanana River, the time series of water discharge, Q, and sediment load, L, in the glacier-melt periods were simulated by a tank model coupled with the L-Q equations (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients, 0.41 to 0.82). The model indicates that the glacier-melt discharge accounted for 26–57% of the Tanana discharge, while the sediment load from the glacierized regions solely accounted for 76–94% of the Tanana sediment load. The remaining contribution (6–24%) of the sediment load was probably due to the fluvial resuspension of glacial sediment deposited previously in the river channels.

Estimating sediment transport from acoustic measurements in the Venice Lagoon inlets

This paper presents the results of a 3-year-long (November 2004–November 2007) study based on the use of acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs) to estimate the solid transport through the three inlets of Venice lagoon. In each of the three inlets instruments were mounted both on survey boats and deployed on the channel bed. The three bottom-mounted ADCPs were positioned in the central part of the inlets, continuously monitoring vertical profiles in the water column. Periodic transects along the investigated sections were collected by the boat-mounted ADCP. Both installations measured current speed and acoustic backscatter intensity. The latter expresses the attenuation of acoustic energy due to material in the water column. The conversion of acoustic backscatter into suspended solids concentration (SSC) was carried out by means of direct measurements of concentration; also an indirect method was used. Boat-mounted ADCP acquisitions were used to calibrate and to validate the bottom-mounted ADCP data. Hourly time series of water discharge and SSC were obtained by calculation from the current speed and acoustic backscatter data recorded by the fixed ADCPs. Hourly solid flux time series were computed. The solid flux and SSC time series at the three inlets were analyzed in relation to the hydrodynamic and atmospheric conditions, highlighting the impact of intense meteorological events on the resuspension process. The lagoon sediment budget is estimated to be about 0.5×10 6 t/yr and shows a tendency for sediment loss.

Fluvial responses to environmental perturbations in the Northern Mediterranean since the Last Glacial Maximum

The numerical model HydroTrend, that produces daily time series of water discharge and sediment load to the ocean, is applied to three Mediterranean drainage basins to: (i) simulate the water and sediment flux changes to sedimentary basins through time and (ii) determine the impact of potential forcing factors on sediment and water fluxes to sedimentary basins and how this impact varied through time. Climate (precipitation, temperature and glacier equilibrium line) and drainage basin (basin elevation, drainage area and reservoir) reconstructions of the Po, Rhône and Têt river basins over the last 21 000 Cal. years B.P. are used as input to the model.Simulated sediment fluxes at the river mouth for the Po, Rhône and Têt River systems during the late Pleistocene were considerably higher compared to Holocene pristine sediment flux, with a factor 3.5, 2.4 and 2.4 respectively. For the Po River system and the Rhône River, deglaciation in the late Pleistocene is the main factor, responsible for these higher sediment fluxes. Drainage basin area change due to sea-level rise is the main cause of decrease in sediment flux for the Têt River system and to a certain extent for the Po River system. Man-made reservoirs reduced sediment flux to the ocean for the Po, Rhône and Têt rivers over the last 3–6 decades with a factor of 1.3, 3.8 and 2.4 respectively.Fluvial responses to climate and basin variations are reflected in the peak flood discharge and sediment concentration curves, where present-day water peak flood curves for all three rivers are the highest in the last 21 000Cal. years B.P. However, their associated sediment concentration curves show opposite results because of diminishing glacial area and the impact of reservoirs. The Têt River system has the ability to generate hyperpycnal plumes although the occurrence frequency changes over time. Prior to 15 500 Cal. years B.P. the river system area was extended due to the low sea level, causing a less favorable regime to generate hyperpycnal events. Presently sediment trapping due to man-made reservoirs alters the river ability to generate hyperpycnal events.

Using artificial neural networks (ANNs) for sediment load forecasting of Talkherood river mouth

Without a doubt the carried sediment load by a river is the most important factor in creating and formation of the related Delta in the river mouth. Therefore, accurate forecasting of the river sediment load can play a significant role for study on the river Delta. However considering the complexity and non-linearity of the phenomenon, the classic experimental or physical-based approaches usually could not handle the problem so well. In this paper, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) as a non-linear black box interpolator tool is used for modeling suspended sediment load which discharges to the Talkherood river mouth, located in northern west Iran. For this purpose, observed time series of water discharge at current and previous time steps are used as the model input neurons and the model output neuron will be the forecasted sediment load at the current time step. In this way, various schemes of the ANN approach are examined in order to achieve the best network as well as the best architecture of the model. The obtained results are also compared with the results of two other classic methods (i.e., linear regression and rating curve methods) in order to approve the efficiency and ability of the proposed method.

Hydrological responses to precipitation variation and diverse human activities in a mountainous tributary of the lower Xijiang, China

Hydrological regimes of river systems have been changing under the impacts of both climate variation and human activities in the global context. The Luodingjiang River, a mountainous tributary of the lower Xijiang in South China, was chosen to investigate the hydrological responses to the precipitation variation and diverse human activities (land use change, water diversion, reservoir construction, and in-channel damming) in this study. Two non-parametric statistical methods, Mann–Kendall and Pettitt test, were employed to detect the long-term changes in the time series of water discharge and sediment load (1959–2002) at the annual, monthly and seasonal scales. Significant increasing changes were detected in the water discharge time series in the dry season. To the contrary, significant decreasing changes were detected in the annual sediment load and sediment load time series in the wet-season. The impacts of precipitation variation and human activities on water discharge and sediment load were discerned and quantified using double mass curve and linear regression methods. By taking the period 1959–1968 as the reference period, the contribution of human activities to the increasing trend of dry-season water discharge in the period 1969–2002 was estimated to be 80%. Because the change of sediment load during the period 1969–2002 was not monotonic with an abrupt change around 1986, the contribution estimations were made for the two periods before and after 1986 respectively. For the period 1969–1985, human activities, particularly deforestation during the period 1981–1985, contributed 43% to the increasing change of sediment load and for the period 1986–2002, the impact of human activities dominated the decreasing change of sediment load with the contribution slightly higher than 100% because of the opposite role of precipitation variation. The operation of reservoirs and hydropower stations is considered to be responsible for the observed increasing trends of water discharge in the dry-season and decreasing trends of sediment load after 1986, and for the latter, reforestation program in the catchment is another contributing factor. The distinct seasonal changing patterns of both water discharge and sediment load in this study highlight the importance of involving monthly or seasonal time series in the change detection in hydrological data.

Mediterranean river systems of Andalusia, southern Spain, and associated deltas: A source to sink approach

The northern shores of the semi-isolated Mediterranean Sea with its low tidal range and a relatively voluminous fluvial supply of sediments constitute an ideal delta forming environment. In this paper, we examine the present-day and multi-decadal behaviour of 26 river systems from Andalusia, southern Spain, forming deltas in the Alboran Sea, the westernmost basin in the Mediterranean Sea. Eastern, Central and Western Andalusian watersheds have been defined based on geomorphological, climatological and hydrological characteristics. A comprehensive data set has been compiled, including satellite images, aerial photographs, a digital elevation model, thematic maps, time series of precipitation, temperature and water discharge, and the damming history of individual river basins. This data set has been used to analyse basin morphology and hydrology, and anthropogenic impact. Several modelling approaches have been applied to obtain the water budget and mean annual sediment yield of 12 of the 26 studied river systems. In addition, the periodicities of water discharge events and their possible link with North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) fluctuations have been also studied. A decreasing trend has been observed in most water discharge time series during the last decades, which has been attributed to natural factors. Although it could have been expected that the diminution of water discharge may have caused a reduction in sediment load, calculated sediment discharge time series do not show any significant tendency. In general, sediment yield shows an opposite relationship with basin area. A comparative analysis of Spanish Mediterranean deltas indicates that in terms of sediment transport Andalusian river systems are quite efficient despite the small size of their catchments. Repetitive flood events and the consequent suspension plumes off river mouths play a major role in the development of deltaic and prodeltaic bodies. Nowadays, 42% of the study area is regulated, although to date the effect of dam building is hardly noticeable on river mouths.

Linking space–time variability of river runoff and rainfall fields: a dynamic approach

Statistical self-similarity in the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall, river networks, and runoff processes has been observed in many empirical studies. To theoretically investigate the relationships between the various time and space scales of variability in rainfall and runoff process we propose a simplified, yet physically based model of a catchment–rainfall interaction. The channel network is presented as a random binary tree, having topological and hydraulic geometry properties typically observed in real river networks. The continuous rainfall model consists of individual storms separated by dry periods. Each given storm is disaggregated in space and time using the random cascade model. The flow routing is modelled by the network of topologically connected nonlinear reservoirs, each representing a link in the channel network. Running the model for many years of synthetic rainfall time series and a continuous water balance model we generate an output, in the form of continuous time series of water discharge in all links in the channel network. The main subject of study is the annual peak flow as a function of catchment area and various characteristics of rainfall. The model enables us to identify different physical processes responsible for the empirically observed scaling properties of peak flows.

Supply and Removal of Sediment in a Landslide-Dominated Mountain Belt: Central Range, Taiwan.

A strong coupling between hillslope and valley systems is often inferred for mountain landscapes dominated by bedrock landsliding. We reveal the nature of this link using data sets on landsliding and sediment transport from two montane catchments draining the eastern Central Range of Taiwan. Here, the magnitude-frequency distribution of landslides can be modeled by a robust power law, but this scale invariance is not mirrored in the sediment discharge at the mountain front. Instead, downstream sediment loads reflect a complex response to both sediment supply and ambient hydraulic conditions. The rivers do not transport significant amounts of sediment unless it is provided by hillslope mass wasting in the catchment. Removal of landslide debris is a function of the transport capacity of the stream at the site of entry; thus, there is a dual supply and transport control on sediment loads in bedrock-floored streams. Over a monitoring period of >25 yr, the bulk of the sediment leaving the mountain belt was supplied by climate-triggered mass wasting. Peaks in water discharge were always closely followed by sediment load maxima, and the rapid decay of the latter indicates an effective removal of most supply. Where an important part of a catchment's sediment yield is derived from interfluves, sediment transport cannot simply be estimated from known water discharge time series, using a sediment rating curve, but requires instead a detailed knowledge of the spatial and temporal patterns of hillslope mass wasting and sediment transfer into the fluvial system.