Water Balance Simulation Model Research Articles

Estimating multivariate ecological variables at high spatial resolution using a cost‐effective matching algorithm

AbstractSimulation models are valuable tools for estimating ecosystem response to environmental conditions and are particularly relevant for investigating climate change impacts. However, because of high computational requirements, models are often applied over a coarse grid of points or for representative locations. Spatial interpolation of model output can be necessary to guide decision‐making, yet interpolation is not straightforward because the interpolated values must maintain the covariance structure among variables. We present methods for two key steps for utilizing limited simulations to generate detailed maps of multivariate and time series output. First, we present a method to select an optimal set of simulation sites that maximize the area represented for a given number of sites. Then, we introduce a multivariate matching approach to interpolate simulation results to detailed maps for the represented area. This approach links simulation output to environmentally analogous matched sites according to user‐defined criteria. We demonstrate the methods with case studies using output from (1) an individual‐based plant simulation model to illustrate site selection, and (2) an ecosystem water balance simulation model to illustrate interpolation. For the site selection case study, we identified 200 simulation sites that represented 96% of a large study area (1.12 × 106 km2) at a ~1‐km resolution. For the interpolation case study, we generated ~1‐km resolution maps across 4.38 × 106 km2 of drylands in North America from a 10 × 10 km grid of simulated sites. Estimates of interpolation errors using cross validation were low (<10% of the range of each variable). Our point selection and interpolation methods, which are available as an easy‐to‐use R package, provide a means of cost‐effectively generating detailed maps of expensive, complex simulation output (e.g., multivariate and time series) at scales relevant for local conservation planning. Our methods are flexible and allow the user to identify relevant matching criteria to balance interpolation uncertainty with areal coverage to enhance inference and decision‐making at management‐relevant scales across large areas.

From global glacier modeling to catchment hydrology: bridging the gap with the WaSiM-OGGM coupling scheme

Coupled glacio-hydrological models have recently become a valuable method for predicting the hydrological response of catchments in mountainous regions under a changing climate. While hydrological models focus mostly on processes of the non-glacierized part of the catchment with a relatively simple glacier representation, the latest generation of standalone (global) glacier models tend to describe glacier processes more accurately by using new global datasets and explicitly modeling ice-flow dynamics. Yet, to the authors' knowledge, existing catchment-scale coupled glacio-hydrological models either do not include these most recent advances in glacier modeling or are simply not available to other users. By making use of the capabilities of the free, distributed, physically-based Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM) and the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), a coupling scheme is developed to bridge the gap between global glacier representation and local catchment hydrology. The WaSiM-OGGM coupling scheme is used to further assess the impacts under future climates on the glaciological and hydrological processes in the Gepatschalm catchment (Austria), by considering a combination of three climate projections under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. Additionally, the results are compared to the original WaSiM model with the integrated Volume-Area (VA) scaling approach for modeling glaciers. Although both models (WaSiM with VA scaling and WaSiM-OGGM coupling scheme) perform very similar during the historical simulations (1971–2010), large discrepancies arise when looking into the future (2011–2100). In terms of runoff, the VA scaling model suggests a reduction of the mean monthly peak between 10–19%, whereas a reduction of 26–41% is computed by the coupling scheme. Similarly, results suggest that glaciers will continuously retreat until 2100. By the end of the century, between 20–43% of the 2010 glacier area will remain according to the VA scaling model, but only 1–23% is expected to remain with the coupling scheme. The results from the WaSiM-OGGM coupling scheme raises awareness of including more sophisticated glacier evolution models when performing hydrological simulations at the catchment scale in the future. As the WaSiM-OGGM coupling scheme is released as open-source software, it is accessible to any interested modeler with limited or even no glacier knowledge.

Modeled Streamflow Response to Scenarios of Tundra Lake Water Withdrawal and Seasonal Climate Extremes, Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska

AbstractOn the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) in northern Alaska (USA), permafrost and abundant surface‐water storage define watershed hydrological processes. In the last decades, the ACP landscape experienced extreme climate events and increased lake water withdrawal (LWW) for infrastructure construction, primarily ice roads and industrial operations. However, their potential (combined) effects on streamflow are relatively underexplored. Here, we applied the process‐based, spatially distributed hydrological and thermal Water Balance Simulation Model (10 m spatial resolution) to the 30 km2 Crea Creek watershed located on the ACP. The impacts of documented seasonal climate extremes and LWW were evaluated on seasonal runoff (May–August), including minimum 7‐day mean flow (MQ7), the recovery time of MQ7 to pre‐perturbation conditions, and the duration of streamflow conditions that prevents fish passage. Low‐rainfall scenarios (21% of normal, one to three summers in a row) caused a larger reduction in MQ7 (−56% to −69%) than LWW alone (−44% to −58%). Decadal‐long consecutive LWW under average climate conditions resulted in a new equilibrium in low flow and seasonal runoff after 3 years that included a disconnected stream network, a reduced watershed contributing area (54% of total watershed area), and limited fish passage of 20 days (vs. 6 days under control conditions) throughout summer. Our results highlight that, even under current average climatic conditions, LWW is not offset by same‐year snowmelt as currently assumed in land management regulations. Effective land management would therefore benefit from considering the combined impact of climate change and industrial LWWs.

Spatio‐temporal discretization uncertainty of distributed hydrological models

AbstractQuantifying the uncertainty linked to the degree to which the spatio‐temporal variability of the catchment descriptors (CDs), and consequently calibration parameters (CPs), represented in the distributed hydrology models and its impacts on the simulation of flooding events is the main objective of this paper. Here, we introduce a methodology based on ensemble approach principles to characterize the uncertainties of spatio‐temporal variations. We use two distributed hydrological models (water balance simulation model and Hydrotel) and six catchments with different sizes and characteristics, located in southern Quebec, to address this objective. We calibrate the models across four spatial (100, 250, 500 and 1000 m2) and two temporal (3 and 24 h) resolutions. Afterwards, all combinations of CDs‐CPs pairs are fed to the hydrological models to create an ensemble of simulations for characterizing the uncertainty related to the spatial resolution of the modelling, for each catchment. The catchments are further grouped into large (>1000 km2), medium (between 500 and 1000 km2) and small (<500 km2) to examine multiple hypotheses. The ensemble approach shows a significant degree of uncertainty (over 100% error for estimation of extreme streamflow) linked to the spatial discretization of the modelling. Regarding the role of CDs, results show that first, there is no meaningful link between the uncertainty of the spatial discretization and catchment size, as spatio‐temporal discretization uncertainty can be seen across different catchment sizes. Second, the temporal scale plays only a minor role in determining the uncertainty related to spatial discretization. Third, the more physically representative a model is, the more sensitive it is to changes in spatial resolution. Finally, the uncertainty related to model parameters is larger than that of CDs for most of the catchments. Yet, there are exceptions for which a change in spatio‐temporal resolution can alter the distribution of state and flux variables, change the hydrologic response of the catchments and cause large uncertainties.

Water balance response of permafrost-affected watersheds to changes in air temperatures

Observations show increases in river discharge to the Arctic Ocean especially in winter over the last decades but the physical mechanisms driving these changes are not yet fully understood. We hypothesize that even in the absence of a precipitation increase, permafrost degradation alone can lead to increased annual river runoff. To test this hypothesis we perform 12 millennium-long simulations over an idealized hypothetical watershed (1 km2) using a distributed, physically based water balance model (Water flow and Balance Simulation Model, WaSiM). The model is forced by both a hypothetical warming defined by an air temperature increase of 7.5 ∘C over 100 years, and a corresponding cooling scenario. To assess model sensitivity we vary soil saturated hydraulic conductivity and lateral subsurface flow configuration. Under the warming scenario, changes in subsurface water transport due to ground temperature changes result in a 7%–14% increase in annual runoff accompanied by a 6%–20% decrease in evapotranspiration. The increase in runoff is most pronounced in winter. Hence, the simulations demonstrate that changes in permafrost characteristics due to climate warming and associated changes in evapotranspiration provide a plausible mechanism for the observed runoff increases in Arctic watersheds. In addition, our experiments show that when lateral subsurface moisture transport is not included, as commonly done in global-scale Earth System Models, the equilibrium water balance in response to the warming or cooling is similar to the water balance in simulations where lateral subsurface transport is included. However, the transient changes in water balance components prior to reaching equilibrium differ greatly between the two. For example, for high saturated hydraulic conductivity only when lateral subsurface transport is considered, a period of decreased runoff occurs immediately after the warming. This period is characterized by a positive change in soil moisture storage caused by the soil moisture deficit developed during prior cooling.

Evaluation of the impacts of land use/cover changes on water balance of Bilate watershed, Rift valley basin, Ethiopia

Abstract Land use/cover change is one of the factors responsible for changing the water balance of the watershed by altering the magnitude of surface runoff, interflow, base flow, and evapotranspiration. This study was aimed at evaluating the impacts of land use/cover change on the water balance of Bilate watershed between 1989, 2002, and 2015. The water balance simulation model (WaSiM) was used to access the impacts of land use/cover change on water balance. The model was calibrated (1989–2003) and validated (2007–2015) using the streamflow of at Bilate Tena gauging station. The result of land-use dynamics showed land use/cover change has a significant impact on the water balance of the watershed: on runoff production, base flow, interflow, evapotranspiration, and total simulation flow. In the study watershed, the change in total simulated flow increased by 77.83%; surface runoff, interflow, and base flow increased by 80.23%, 75.69%, and 87.79% respectively; and evapotranspiration decreased by 6% throughout the study period (1989–2015). The results obtained from this study revealed that the watershed is under land/cover change that shows its impacts on hydrological processes and water balance. Thus, effective information regarding the environmental response of land use/cover change is important to hydrologists, land-use planners, watershed management, and decision-makers for sustainable water resource projects and ecosystem services. Therefore, the policy-makers, planners, and stakeholders should design strategies to ensure the sustainability of the watershed hydrology for the sake of protecting agricultural activities, and urban planning and management systems within the watershed area.

Planting time optimization on tidal agricultural land

Tidal agricultural land (TAL) is a marginal farming field that is highly available but yet to be optimized in Indonesia. Productivity enhancement of TAL is achievable through agriculture technologies, but water management is the key solution to TAL main problems, i.e. flood and drought cycle. The main objective of this research was to predict tidal cycle for available planting time optimization in TAL. Research was conducted on 100 hectares TAL in Jejangkit, Barito Kuala, South Kalimantan, with the Alalak river become the main subject of the hydrodynamics monitoring. Watershed water balance simulation model run on 10-day interval was utilized to predict the tidal cycle with 4 input parameters including water-level, precipitation, percolation, and evapotranspiration. The prediction result showed that the available planting months in Jejangkit TAL was about 8 months, between the first or second 10-day of May and third 10-day of January or first 10-day of February (calibration and validation R2 were 0.78 and 0.92, respectively). On-field validation in Jejangkit recorded flood event started during the third 10-day of January 2020, which indicated that the prediction was reliable. This result shows that tidal cycle could be simulated using watershed water balance model to assist farmers on TAL’s productivity enhancement.

Reservoir water balance simulation model utilizing machine learning algorithm

Developing water losses and reservoir final storage forecast has become an increasingly important task for reservoir operation. Accurate forecasts would lead to better monitoring of water quality and more efficient reservoir operation. Therefore, the flash flood and water crisis problems in Malaysia can be reduced. Artificial neural networks (ANN) models with radial basis function (RBF) have been determined for high efficiency and accuracy, especially in the dynamics system. In this study, the proposed ANN Prediction Model is being developed by using inflow, the release of dam, initial and final storage of the reservoir as input, whereas the water losses from the reservoir as output. All the data collected over 11 years (1997–2007) at Klang Gate reservoir has been used to develop and test model output. The results indicated that the proposed model could provide monthly forecasting with maximum root mean square error of ± 20.07%. The advantages of this ANN model are to provide information for water losses, final storage, and variation of water level for better reservoir operation.

A Review of Hydrological Models Applied in the Permafrost-Dominated Arctic Region

The Arctic region is the most sensitive region to climate change. Hydrological models are fundamental tools for climate change impact assessment. However, due to the extreme weather conditions, specific hydrological process, and data acquisition challenges in the Arctic, it is crucial to select suitable hydrological model(s) for this region. In this paper, a comprehensive review and comparison of different models is conducted based on recently available studies. The functionality, limitations, and suitability of the potential hydrological models for the Arctic hydrological process are analyzed, including: (1) The surface hydrological models Topoflow, DMHS (deterministic modeling hydrological system), HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning), SWAT (soil and water assessment tool), WaSiM (water balance simulation model), ECOMAG (ecological model for applied geophysics), and CRHM (cold regions hydrological model); and (2) the cryo-hydrogeological models ATS (arctic terrestrial simulator), CryoGrid 3, GEOtop, SUTRA-ICE (ice variant of the existing saturated/unsaturated transport model), and PFLOTRAN-ICE (ice variant of the existing massively parallel subsurface flow and reactive transport model). The review finds that Topoflow, HBV, SWAT, ECOMAG, and CRHM are suitable for studying surface hydrology rather than other processes in permafrost environments, whereas DMHS, WaSiM, and the cryo-hydrogeological models have higher capacities for subsurface hydrology, since they take into account the three phase changes of water in the near-surface soil. Of the cryo-hydrogeological models reviewed here, GEOtop, SUTRA-ICE, and PFLOTRAN-ICE are found to be suitable for small-scale catchments, whereas ATS and CryoGrid 3 are potentially suitable for large-scale catchments. Especially, ATS and GEOtop are the first tools that couple surface/subsurface permafrost thermal hydrology. If the accuracy of simulating the active layer dynamics is targeted, DMHS, ATS, GEOtop, and PFLOTRAN-ICE are potential tools compared to the other models. Further, data acquisition is a challenging task for cryo-hydrogeological models due to the complex boundary conditions when compared to the surface hydrological models HBV, SWAT, and CRHM, and the cryo-hydrogeological models are more difficult for non-expert users and more expensive to run compared to other models.

A multi-model approach for analysing water balance and water-related ecosystem services in the Ouriyori catchment (Benin)

ABSTRACT Freshwater supply remains limited in West Africa due to lack of operational governance frameworks. In this study, the Water flow and balance Simulation Model (WaSiM) and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) were applied in the Ouriyori catchment (14.5 km2, Benin) to assess hydrological ecosystem services (HES) in terms of service flow and service capacity using the ecosystem accounting framework. The modelling exercises indicated satisfactory goodness-of-fit coefficients greater than 75% with an absolute bias of less than 25%. The HES capacity was in general higher than the HES flow for crop and household (surface/groundwater) water supplies, indicating that the catchment can potentially supply more water under optimal storage and management conditions. Positive and negative shifts in service capacities of crop water and household supplies were observed over the simulation period. These significant results can support sustainable interventions in securing water and food productions through increasing HES flow and capacity.

A Holistic Modelling Approach for the Estimation of Return Levels of Peak Flows in Bavaria

This study introduces a holistic approach for the hydrological modelling of peak flows for the major Bavarian river basins, referred to as Hydrological Bavaria. This approach, intended to develop a robust modelling framework to support water resources management under climate change conditions, comprises a regionalized parameterization of the water balance simulation model (WaSiM) for 98 catchments in high temporal (3 h) and spatial (500 m) resolution using spatially coherent information and an automatized calibration (dynamically dimensioned search–simulated annealing, DDS-SA) for storage components. The performance of the model was examined using common metrics (Nash & Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE)). The simulations provided the means for the calculation of a level of trust (LOT) by comparing observed and simulated high flows with a five, ten, and 20-year return period. These estimates were derived by the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) applying the peak over threshold (POT) sampling method. Results show that the model overall performs well with regard to the selected objective measures, but also exhibits regional disparities mainly due to the availability of meteorological inputs or water management data. For most catchments, the LOT shows moderate to high confidence in the estimation of return periods with the hydrological model. Therefore, we consider the holistic modelling approach applicable for climate change impact studies concerned with dynamic alterations in peak flows.

Testing the Robustness of a Physically-Based Hydrological Model in Two Data Limited Inland Valley Catchments in Dano, Burkina Faso

This study investigates the robustness of the physically-based hydrological model WaSiM (water balance and flow simulation model) for simulating hydrological processes in two data sparse small-scale inland valley catchments (Bankandi-Loffing and Mebar) in Burkina Faso. An intensive instrumentation with two weather stations, three rain recorders, 43 piezometers, and one soil moisture station was part of the general effort to reduce the scarcity of hydrological data in West Africa. The data allowed us to successfully parameterize, calibrate (2014–2015), and validate (2016) WaSiM for the Bankandi-Loffing catchment. Good model performance concerning discharge in the calibration period (R2 = 0.91, NSE = 0.88, and KGE = 0.82) and validation period (R2 = 0.82, NSE = 0.77, and KGE = 0.57) was obtained. The soil moisture (R2 = 0.7, NSE = 0.7, and KGE = 0.8) and the groundwater table (R2 = 0.3, NSE = 0.2, and KGE = 0.5) were well simulated, although not explicitly calibrated. The spatial transposability of the model parameters from the Bankandi-Loffing model was investigated by applying the best parameter-set to the Mebar catchment without any recalibration. This resulted in good model performance in 2014–2015 (R2 = 0.93, NSE = 0.92, and KGE = 0.84) and in 2016 (R2 = 0.65, NSE = 0.64, and KGE = 0.59). This suggests that the parameter-set achieved in this study can be useful for modeling ungauged inland valley catchments in the region. The water balance shows that evaporation is more important than transpiration (76% and 24%, respectively, of evapotranspiration losses) and the surface flow is very sensitive to the observed high interannual variability of rainfall. Interflow dominates the uplands, but base flow is the major component of stream flow in inland valleys. This study provides useful information for the better management of soil and scarce water resources for smallholder farming in the area.

Optimization of Irrigation Scheduling for Maize in an Arid Oasis Based on Simulation–Optimization Model

In arid regions, irrigation scheduling optimization is efficient in coping with the shortage of agricultural water resources. This paper developed a simulation–optimization model for irrigation scheduling optimization for the main crop in an arid oasis, aiming to maximize crop yield and minimize crop water consumption. The model integrated the soil water balance simulation model and the optimization model for crop irrigation scheduling. The simulation model was firstly calibrated and validated based on field experiment data for maize in 2012 and 2013, respectively. Then, considering the distribution of soil types and irrigation districts in the study area, the model was used to solve the optimal irrigation schedules for the scenarios of status quo and typical climate years. The results indicated that the model is applicable for reflecting the complexities of simulation–optimization for maize irrigation scheduling. The optimization results showed that the irrigation water-saving potential of the study area was between 97 mm and 240 mm, and the average annual optimal yield of maize was over 7.3 t/ha. The simulation–optimization model of irrigation schedule established in this paper can provide a technical means for the formulation of irrigation schedules to ensure yield optimization and water productivity or water saving.

Decentralized rainwater harvesting program for rural cities considering tax incentive schemes under stakeholder interests and purchasing power restrictions

Abstract This paper focuses on implementing a decentralized rainwater harvesting (DRH) program for rural cities under stakeholder interests and purchasing power restrictions. The study is conducted by considering: (1) a no tax incentive scheme (NTIS); (2) a flat rate tax incentive scheme (FTIS); and (3) a progressive tax incentive scheme (PTIS). A three-stage decision framework is proposed. In the first stage, a water balance simulation model is developed to estimate the amount of rainwater that can be collected at individual households using different capacity rain barrels and to determine the threshold rain barrel capacity. In the second stage, the water balance simulation model is run multiple times with varying input parameters to obtain the probability distributions for rainwater used and water demand for different households using different capacity rain barrels, which are then used to generate scenarios for the third stage optimization model. In the third stage, a multi-objective stochastic mixed integer linear programming (Mo-SMILP) model is proposed that aims to determine the household participation rate and cumulative city-wide DRH capacity considering tax incentive schemes, stakeholder interests, and purchasing power restrictions. The proposed Mo-SMILP model is solved by using an improved augmented epsilon constraint method (AUGMECON 2) in order to understand the trade-off between city-wide household reliability, city-wide household savings, and city government savings. A case study of a small rural city in the State of Texas in the US is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed decision framework. The results shows a significant decrease in city-wide household reliability when stakeholder interests and purchasing power are considered. In addition, the PTIS is best at improving city-wide household reliability and savings. NTIS and FTIS are best at improving city government savings depending on the household preference for reliability and savings.

Simulating Future Runoff in a Complex Terrain Alpine Catchment with EURO-CORDEX Data

AbstractWith large elevation gradients and high hydrometeorological variability, Alpine catchments pose special challenges to hydrological climate change impact assessment. Data from seven regional climate models run within the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX), each driven with a different boundary forcing, are used to exemplarily evaluate the reproduction of observed flow duration curves and access the future discharge of the Ammer River located in Alpine southern Germany applying the hydrological simulation model called the Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM). The results show that WaSiM reasonably reproduces the observed runoff for the entire catchment when driven with observed precipitation. When applied with CORDEX evaluation data (1989–2008) forced by ERA-Interim, the simulations underestimate the extreme runoff and reproduce the high percentile values with errors in the range from −37% to 55% with an ensemble mean of around 15%. Runs with historical data 1975–2005 reveal larger errors, up to 120%, with an ensemble mean of around 50% overestimation. Also, the results show a large spread between the simulations, primarily resulting from deficiencies in the precipitation data. Results indicate future changes for 2071–2100 in the 99.5th percentile runoff value of up to 9% compared to 1975–2005. An increase in high flows is also supported by flow return periods obtained from a larger sample of highest flows over 50 years, which reveals for 2051–2100 lower return periods for high runoff values compared to 1956–2005. Obtained results are associated with substantial uncertainties leading to the conclusion that CORDEX data at 0.11° resolution are likely inadequate for driving hydrologic analyses in mesoscale catchments that require a high standard of fidelity for hydrologic simulation performance.

An Integrated Approach for Studying the Hydrology of the Ljubljansko Polje Aquifer in Slovenia and Its Simulation

Groundwater and surface water are strongly connected. Therefore, understanding their interactions is important when studying the water balance of a complex aquatic system. This paper aims to present an integrated approach to study such processes, including a better understanding of the hydrological system behavior in the Ljubljansko polje (Slovenia). The study is based on multivariate statistical analyses of data collected over a long period, including the isotopic composition of groundwater, river water, and precipitation. The hydrology in the study domain was also simulated using a comprehensive modelling framework. Since boundary conditions are essential for simulating groundwater flow in a sensitive aquifer, a modelling system of rivers and channels (MIKE 11) and water flow and balance simulation model (WaSiM) were used to model river dynamics and the percolation of local precipitation, respectively. The results were then used as boundary conditions imposed on a transient state groundwater flow model performed in finite element subsurface flow simulation system (FEFLOW 6.2). Both the locations of recharge areas in the study domain and the calculated fluxes between the Sava River and the aquifer are graphically presented. The study revealed that a combination of the MIKE 11-FEFLOW-WaSiM tools offers a good solution for performing parallel simulations of groundwater and surface water dynamics.

Developing hydrological and reservoir models under deep uncertainty of climate change: robustness of water supply reservoir

Abstract Adaptation of water resources to climate change, drought management strategies, and hydrological and reservoir modelling have become serious issues in the context of climate change uncertainty. The aim of this paper is to introduce methods and tools for hydrological analysis and robust reservoir performance evaluation in this time of deep uncertainty. Newly developed lumped water balance and reservoir simulation models will be used to perform hydrological analysis, and a robust reservoir storage capacity reliability assessment will also be conducted. The hydrological data in relation to climate change will be constructed using two climatological datasets created by statistical downscaling tools LARS WG and ENSEMBLE Downscaling Portal. The hydrological analysis and the temporal reliability of the assessment of reservoir storage capacity and robustness in the context of climate change uncertainty will be presented as a case study of the Vir I reservoir and the Svratka River basin in the Czech Republic, in central Europe. The resulting models show a decrease in long-term mean flow, ranging from 6% to 32%, and in reservoir outflow from 1.5% to 26%, depending on the timescale, downscaling tools and emission scenarios.

System-analytical simulation of the hydrochemical runoff of mountain rivers: case study of dissolved iron

A water balance simulation model of seasonal and long-term flow dynamics of total dissolved iron has been developed using the example of the middle-size and smaller rivers of the Altai–Sayan highland. Model input factors and input variables included monthly precipitation and average monthly air temperatures (normalized and spatially generalized according to the regional climate model), water flows calculated for individual river basins (according to a discharge model for mountain rivers), and cartographic information on river basins and arable land area. The sensitivity of the model to natural variations of input factors was determined as the contribution of a specific factor to the variance of the observed values of hydrochemical runoff. The calculated criteria RSR = 0.57 and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency NSE = 0.67 indicate the good quality of the model.

Multimodel assessment of climate change-induced hydrologic impacts for a Mediterranean catchment

Abstract. This work addresses the impact of climate change on the hydrology of a catchment in the Mediterranean, a region that is highly susceptible to variations in rainfall and other components of the water budget. The assessment is based on a comparison of responses obtained from five hydrologic models implemented for the Rio Mannu catchment in southern Sardinia (Italy). The examined models – CATchment HYdrology (CATHY), Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), TOPographic Kinematic APproximation and Integration (TOPKAPI), TIN-based Real time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS), and WAter balance SImulation Model (WASIM) – are all distributed hydrologic models but differ greatly in their representation of terrain features and physical processes and in their numerical complexity. After calibration and validation, the models were forced with bias-corrected, downscaled outputs of four combinations of global and regional climate models in a reference (1971–2000) and future (2041–2070) period under a single emission scenario. Climate forcing variations and the structure of the hydrologic models influence the different components of the catchment response. Three water availability response variables – discharge, soil water content, and actual evapotranspiration – are analyzed. Simulation results from all five hydrologic models show for the future period decreasing mean annual streamflow and soil water content at 1 m depth. Actual evapotranspiration in the future will diminish according to four of the five models due to drier soil conditions. Despite their significant differences, the five hydrologic models responded similarly to the reduced precipitation and increased temperatures predicted by the climate models, and lend strong support to a future scenario of increased water shortages for this region of the Mediterranean basin. The multimodel framework adopted for this study allows estimation of the agreement between the five hydrologic models and between the four climate models. Pairwise comparison of the climate and hydrologic models is shown for the reference and future periods using a recently proposed metric that scales the Pearson correlation coefficient with a factor that accounts for systematic differences between datasets. The results from this analysis reflect the key structural differences between the hydrologic models, such as a representation of both vertical and lateral subsurface flow (CATHY, TOPKAPI, and tRIBS) and a detailed treatment of vegetation processes (SWAT and WASIM).

Modelling forest snow processes with a new version of WaSiM

ABSTRACTWe present a new model extension for the Water balance Simulation Model, WaSiM, which features (i) snow interception and (ii) modified meteorological conditions under coniferous forest canopies, complementing recently developed model extensions for particular mountain hydrological processes. Two study areas in Austria and Germany are considered in this study. To supplement and constrain the modelling experiments with on-site observations, a network of terrestrial time-lapse cameras was set up in one of these catchments. The spatiotemporal patterns of snow depth inside the forest and at the adjacent open field sites were recorded along with snow interception dynamics. Comparison of observed and modelled snow cover and canopy interception indicates that the new version of WaSiM reliably reconstructs the variability of snow accumulation for both the forest and the open field. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency computed for selected runoff events in spring increases from −0.68 to 0.71 and 0.21 to 0.87, respectively.